Proves lower discount rates are needed for future losses.
problem Determining appropriate discount rates for future losses.
method Analyzes climate change and discount rates debate.
result Risk requires a lower, not higher, discount rate.
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48 results for “future losses”
Hedging with Bitcoin Futures: The Effect of Liquidation Loss Aversion and Aggressive Tradingq-fin.RM
Study optimizes Bitcoin futures hedging to reduce liquidation risk.
problem Optimizing hedging strategies to minimize liquidation risk in Bitcoin futures.
method Derived a semi-closed form optimal hedging strategy considering spot and futures extreme returns, loss aversion, leverage, and collateral management.
result Optimal strategy reduces both hedged portfolio variance and liquidation probability.
We present GLASSES: Global optimisation with Look-Ahead through Stochastic Simulation and Expected-loss Search. The majority of global optimisation approaches in use are myopic, in only considering the impact of the next function value; the non-myopic approaches that do exist are able to consider only a handful of futu…
The study compares econometric and deep learning models for forecasting COMEX copper futures volatility.
problem Forecasting volatility of COMEX copper futures across different time intervals.
method Econometric models (GARCH, HAR) and deep learning models (RNN, LSTM, GRU) applied to daily and hourly data.
result Deep learning models outperform econometric models in hourly data, but HAR remains the best overall for daily data.
The paper examines mass aspects at future null infinity and limits of quasilocal mass.
problem Understanding mass aspects and limits of quasilocal mass at future null infinity.
method Review and extension of Bondi mass and mass loss formula in Bondi-Sachs coordinate system.
result New results about the limit of quasilocal mass of unit spheres at null infinity.
We investigate the problem of pricing and hedging derivatives of Electricity Futures contract when the underlying asset is not available. We propose to use a cross hedging strategy based on the Futures contract covering the larger delivery period. A quick overview of market data shows a basis risk for this market incom…
Study uses SVM to predict weather-induced home insurance claims and losses.
problem Assessing future weather-induced home insurance claims and losses for disaster preparedness.
method Support Vector Machine (SVM) regression for forecasting future claim dynamics.
result Illustrates SVM approach in forecasting weather-induced home insurance claims in a Canadian city.
TimeMCL forecasts diverse time series futures using neural networks and WTA loss.
problem Forecasting multiple plausible time series futures.
method Multiple Choice Learning (MCL) framework with Winner-Takes-All (WTA) loss.
result TimeMCL efficiently predicts diverse time series futures at low computational cost.
Model shows how banks' fears of future defaults can cause immediate financial stress.
problem How banks' future default worries cause immediate financial stress.
method Dynamic interbank model with endogenous distress contagion, mark-to-market valuation adjustment, forward-backward approach.
result Distress contagion acts as a stochastic volatility term leading to clustering and down-market spikes.
Risk-Based Auto-Deleveragingq-fin.RM
Optimizes cryptocurrency exchanges' risk management by reducing positions based on leverage.
problem Managing risk in cryptocurrency futures exchanges during large price moves.
method Formulates ADL as an optimization problem to minimize risk of loss, using a water-filling rule to equalize leverage.
result The optimal ADL policy minimizes maximum leverage among participants, providing a transparent and implementable benchmark.
The utility of Potential Future Exposure (PFE) for counterparty trading limits is being challenged by new market developments, notably widespread regulatory Initial Margin (using 99% 10-day exposure), and netting of trade and collateral flows. However PFE has pre-existing challenges w.r.t. portfolios/distributions, col…
Paper proposes a diagnostic tool for evaluating model performance out-of-sample.
problem Evaluating model performance on unseen data.
method Uses a finite calibration dataset to assess future losses.
result Provides guarantees under weak assumptions and quantifies distribution shifts.
Ratio-based Loss Functionsstat.ML
This paper explores ratio-based loss functions for machine learning.
problem Margin-based and distance-based loss functions for classification and regression.
method Investigation of ratio-based loss functions' properties.
result Proposed new ratio-based loss functions for regression.
Stop-loss and Leverage in optimal Statistical Arbitrage with an application to Energy marketq-fin.PM
In this paper we develop a statistical arbitrage trading strategy with two key elements in hi-frequency trading: stop-loss and leverage. We consider, as in Bertram (2009), a mean-reverting process for the security price with proportional transaction costs; we show how to introduce stop-loss and leverage in an optimal t…
A Multi-step Loss Function for Robust Learning of the Dynamics in Model-based Reinforcement Learningcs.LG
The paper introduces a multi-step loss function to improve model-based reinforcement learning.
problem Compounding of one-step prediction errors in long trajectories.
method A multi-step objective function combining MSE losses at various future horizons.
result Models trained with the multi-step loss achieve significant improvement in future prediction.
Learning to predict future images from a video sequence involves the construction of an internal representation that models the image evolution accurately, and therefore, to some degree, its content and dynamics. This is why pixel-space video prediction may be viewed as a promising avenue for unsupervised feature learn…
A simple GI loss improves temporal generalization without complex methods.
problem Temporal drift between train and test distributions in evolving data.
method Gradient Interpolation (GI) loss to regularize temporal complexity.
result GI loss outperforms complex methods on real-world datasets.
New loss function reduces outage probability in ML-assisted resource allocation.
problem Minimizing outage probability in ML-assisted resource allocation systems.
method Developed a novel loss function and trained an ML model to address the outage probability challenge.
result Exact and asymptotic expressions for the system's outage probability were established.
A Natural Disasters Indexq-fin.RM
NDI aims to forecast future natural disasters risk for insurers.
problem Increasing intensity and frequency of natural disasters.
method Develops a Natural Disasters Index (NDI) based on NOAA data.
result NDI forecasts future natural disasters risk for insurers.
Study assesses sugar beet yields under EU's neonicotinoids ban and climate change.
problem Impact of yellow virus on sugar beet yields under neonicotinoids ban and climate change.
method Modeling using climate datasets and simulations of aphid flight and abundance.
result Reconstructs sugar beet yields using 'as if' approach without neonicotinoids.
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are a vital modeling technique that rely on internal states learned indirectly by optimization of a supervised, unsupervised, or reinforcement training loss. RNNs are used to model dynamic processes that are characterized by underlying latent states whose form is often unknown, precludi…
We present a new model DrNET that learns disentangled image representations from video. Our approach leverages the temporal coherence of video and a novel adversarial loss to learn a representation that factorizes each frame into a stationary part and a temporally varying component. The disentangled representation can …
Symmetric losses improve classifier robustness from corrupted labels.
problem Improving classifier performance from corrupted labels.
method Symmetric losses that satisfy a certain condition.
result Symmetric losses enhance robust classification from corrupted labels.
Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection approaches usually present special requirements (e.g., hyperparameter validation, collection of outlier data) and produce side effects (e.g., classification accuracy drop, slower energy-inefficient inferences). We argue that these issues are a consequence of the SoftMax loss anisotro…
Gamblers lose in long bets despite casino claims, study shows.
problem Gamblers losing in seemingly fair gambling scenarios.
method Theoretical and experimental analysis of two-armed Futurity slot machines.
result Casinos have a win rate greater than 50% in long bets, making them unfair.
The paper proves ADL mechanisms face a trilemma and optimizes them for fairness, revenue, and exchange solvency.
problem The impossibility of a perpetual futures exchange achieving solvency, revenue, and fairness.
method Formal model of ADL, proving trilemma, and analyzing three ADL mechanisms.
result Optimized ADL mechanisms can reduce trader losses while maintaining exchange solvency.
In this work we study loss functions for learning and evaluating probability distributions over large discrete domains. Unlike classification or regression where a wide variety of loss functions are used, in the distribution learning and density estimation literature, very few losses outside the dominant ar…
Deep learning clusters patient time-series data for better prognosis.
problem Clustering time-series data for patient phenotyping and prognosis.
method Deep predictive clustering with novel loss functions for future outcome distribution.
result Model achieves superior clustering performance and identifies meaningful patient subgroups.
We analyze the probability density function (PDF) of waiting times between financial loss exceedances. The empirical PDFs are fitted with the self-excited Hawkes conditional Poisson process with a long power law memory kernel. The Hawkes process is the simplest extension of the Poisson process that takes into account h…
Gradient descent on neural nets often operates at the Edge of Stability, where loss behavior is complex but loss decreases over time.
problem Understanding the optimization dynamics of neural networks at the Edge of Stability.
method Empirical demonstration of gradient descent behavior in neural network training.
result Gradient descent on neural networks typically occurs at the Edge of Stability, where loss behavior is non-monotonic but loss decreases over time.
Enhances insurance loss models using InsurTech data and machine learning.
problem Traditional insurance loss models lack predictive accuracy due to limited data sources.
method Combining proprietary claims data with InsurTech data and applying machine learning techniques.
result Improved predictive accuracy of the loss model through machine learning.
Improved motion prediction for self-driving cars using trajectory sets and auxiliary losses.
problem Accurately predicting future vehicle motion for self-driving cars.
method Classification over trajectory sets with an auxiliary loss for off-road predictions and spatial-temporal relationships.
result Significant improvement in motion prediction performance on small datasets using map information.
This paper develops a model of reference-dependent assessment of subjective beliefs in which loss-averse people optimally choose the expectation as the reference point to balance the current felicity from the optimistic anticipation and the future disappointment from the realisation. The choice of over-optimism or over…
A hybrid loss framework improves time series forecasting by balancing global and component errors.
problem Current time series methods may prioritize less significant sub-series, leading to forecasting bias.
method Proposes a hybrid loss framework combining global and component losses, dynamically adjusting weights.
result Improves time series forecasting performance by 0.5-2% on average.
Enhances portfolio performance using deep reinforcement learning and future rewards.
problem Improving existing high-performing portfolio strategies through dynamic rebalancing.
method Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) and Oracle agents for dynamic rebalancing; Regret-based Sharpe reward function; Transaction cost scheduler; Future-looking reward function; Circular block bootstrap training.
result Significantly enhanced portfolio performance compared to traditional strategies and baselines.
Probabilistic forecasts in the form of probability distributions over future events have become popular in several fields of statistical science. The dissimilarity between a probability forecast and an outcome is measured by a loss function (scoring rule). Popular example of scoring rule for continuous outcomes is the …
Informer model with GMADL loss outperforms benchmarks in high frequency Bitcoin trading.
problem Developing automated trading strategies for high frequency Bitcoin data.
method Informer architecture with RMSE, GMADL, and Quantile loss functions.
result Informer model with GMADL loss function outperforms benchmarks in trading outcomes.
Anatomy of a Bail-Inq-fin.GN
To mitigate potential contagion from future banking crises, the European Commission recently proposed a framework which would provide for the of bank creditors in the event of failure. In this study, we examine this framework retrospectively in the context of failed European banks during the global f…
Methodology to analyze traffic accidents using microscopic models.
problem Understanding and predicting traffic accidents and their impact.
method Developed a statistical approach using microscopic traffic models and SUMO.
result Approximate distribution of total losses as a mean-variance mixture.
Novel loss function improves few-shot classification performance.
problem Few-shot classification struggles with embedding space for new classes.
method Proposes self-compacting softmax loss (SSL) to prevent embedding space fullness.
result SSL leads to significant improvement in state-of-the-art performance.
Through a short sale, a person borrows a share of stock from a lender, sells the borrowed share to a third person at the current price, and purchases an identical share in the market at a future date and at a future price to replace the borrowed share of stock. This only makes sense if the short seller anticipates a do…
Self-Predictive Representations improves data-efficient reinforcement learning from limited interaction.
problem Efficient reinforcement learning from limited data.
method Train agents to predict future latent state representations using self-supervised objectives.
result Achieves a median human-normalized score of 0.415 on Atari with 100k steps of interaction, 55% improvement over previous state-of-the-art.
A new loss function improves neural networks' out-of-distribution detection without side effects.
problem Neural networks struggle with out-of-distribution detection due to SoftMax loss issues.
method Proposes IsoMax loss replacing SoftMax loss, maintaining high entropy and fast inferences.
result Significantly improves neural networks' out-of-distribution detection performance.
Model predicts operational risk using HMMs with economic covariates.
problem Predicting operational risk losses with time-dependent structures and economic covariates.
method Hidden Markov Models extended to multivariate observations with an auxiliary economic variable.
result Calibration results show relevance of including economic covariates.
Investigates conditions for risk or utility functionals to be sensitive to large losses.
problem Conditions for risk or utility functionals to be sensitive to large losses.
method Analyzes sensitivity to large losses for various risk and utility functionals.
result Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall generally fail to be sensitive to large losses, but expected utility functionals and certain adjusted versions are sensitive.
Modelling risk for commodities in Brazil: An application to live cattle spot and futures pricesq-fin.ST
Study models live cattle futures prices in Brazil.
problem Estimate futures prices for better risk management.
method Holt-Winters, ARIMA, GARMA models.
result GARMA(2,1) model best predicts BGI prices.
AI models outperform simple rules in cross-asset futures timing, especially with lower transaction costs.
problem Optimizing cross-asset portfolio weights using traditional forecasting and optimization methods.
method End-to-end AI policies that map market states directly to portfolio weights, trained on CME futures using a differentiable Sharpe ratio loss function.
result Transformer-based AI policies outperform simple rules and equal weighting, trading less and matching or exceeding equal weighting through moderate transaction costs.
FreST Loss decorrelates spatio-temporal dependencies in graph signals.
problem Complex spatio-temporal dependencies in graph-structured signals are not well captured by standard forecasting models.
method FreST Loss extends supervision to the joint spatio-temporal spectrum using Joint Fourier Transform (JFT).
result FreST Loss reduces estimation bias and improves forecasting accuracy on real-world datasets.