We provide complete source code for building a fundamental industry classification based on publically available and freely downloadable data. We compare various fundamental industry classifications by running a horserace of short-horizon trading signals (alphas) utilizing open source heterotic risk models (https://ssr…
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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,657 papers · 148 categories
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48 results for “fundamental data”
A new data-driven model forecasts electricity prices efficiently.
problem Forecasting electricity prices using traditional methods.
method Integrates data-driven and fundamental models, learns from historical data.
result Significantly improves forecasting accuracy compared to existing models.
Research develops a DSS for stock selection and asset allocation using fundamental data.
problem Complex financial markets and limited use of fundamental data analysis.
method Data gathering, cleaning, and modeling of fundamental data; integration with macroeconomic conditions.
result Enhanced predictive model for mid- to long-term stock returns.
An introduction to Topological Data Analysis: fundamental and practical aspects for data scientistsmath.ST
Topological Data Analysis is a recent and fast growing field providing a set of new topological and geometric tools to infer relevant features for possibly complex data. This paper is a brief introduction, through a few selected topics, to basic fundamental and practical aspects of \tda\ for non experts.
Unified access package for fundamental physics datasets simplifies machine learning.
problem Lack of unified access to datasets from multiple fundamental physics disciplines.
method Unified Python package with common interface and reference models.
result Graph-based neural networks perform similarly to dedicated methods on various datasets.
Improved stock selection through predictive fundamentals and uncertainty estimates.
problem Selecting stocks based on future financial data to outperform traditional factor models.
method Train deep nets to forecast future fundamentals, incorporate uncertainty estimates, and adjust portfolios to manage risk.
result Simulated annualized return of 17.7% and Sharpe ratio of 0.84 for uncertainty-aware model, significantly higher than 14.0% and 0.52 for standard factor models.
We show through case studies that it is easier to estimate the fundamental limits of data processing than to construct explicit algorithms to achieve those limits. Focusing on binary classification, data compression, and prediction under logarithmic loss, we show that in the finite space setting, when it is possible to…
Framework analyzes stock price co-movement with fundamentals using big data.
problem Understanding complex relationships between stock price co-movements and fundamental characteristics.
method Advanced big data techniques, four regression models.
result Identifies leading co-movement stocks and their influencing factors.
Study of circle configurations in the plane, proving aspherical space and computing fundamental groups.
problem Understanding the space of configurations of circles in the plane.
method Proved the space is aspherical and computed fundamental groups of its components.
result Fundamental groups are iterated semidirect products of braid groups, with structure dictated by a finite rooted tree.
Study continuation maps for Morse fundamental group properties.
problem Properties of continuation maps for Morse fundamental group.
method Analysis of continuation maps for Morse fundamental group, functoriality, and isomorphism to relative fundamental group.
result Continuation maps are isomorphic to relative fundamental groups.
Study uses machine learning to predict stock trends based on fundamental data.
problem Predicting stock trends using fundamental analysis.
method Used LSTM, 1D CNN, and LR models on financial data.
result Logistic Regression models outperformed other models.
Forecasting Company Fundamentalsq-fin.ST
Deep learning models outperform classical methods in forecasting company fundamentals.
problem Forecasting company fundamentals for investment and econometrics.
method Compared 24 deterministic and probabilistic models on real company data.
result Deep learning models provide superior forecasting performance, especially in uncertainty estimation.
Paper uses machine learning for stock prediction using fundamental data.
problem Predicting stock prices using fundamental data.
method Used three machine learning algorithms (FNN, RF, ANFIS) and feature selection for stock prediction.
result Random Forest (RF) model achieved the best prediction results.
Effectiveness of Artificial Intelligence in Stock Market Prediction based on Machine Learningq-fin.ST
AI models predict stock trends using historical data and public sentiment.
problem Improving stock market prediction accuracy using AI.
method Employed regression and classification ML algorithms for technical and fundamental analysis respectively.
result Median performance suggests AI is not yet superior to stock markets.
The paper finds a fundamental trade-off between confidence and efficiency in transductive conformal prediction.
problem The challenge is to balance confidence and efficiency in predicting multiple data points.
method The authors derive a strict finite-sample bound and introduce a practical algorithm to approach this bound.
result Any non-trivial confidence level leads to exponential growth in prediction set size, with a linear scaling in the number of samples.
On a periodic basis, publicly traded companies are required to report fundamentals: financial data such as revenue, operating income, debt, among others. These data points provide some insight into the financial health of a company. Academic research has identified some factors, i.e. computed features of the reported d…
We find the fundamental solution to the p-Laplace equation in a class of Hörmander vector fields that generate neither a Carnot group nor a Grushin-type space. The singularity occurs at the sub-Riemannian points which naturally corresponds to finding the fundamental solution of a generalized operator in Euclidean space…
Study characterizes conformal boundaries of de Sitter spacetimes.
problem Characterize conformal infinity of asymptotically de Sitter spacetimes.
method Derive constraints relating stress-energy tensor to conformal geometric data using higher conformal fundamental forms.
result Constraints on stress-energy tensor relate to conformal geometric data.
Study finds CNNs perform better with financial ratio data than fundamental data.
problem Improving CNN performance with financial data.
method Developed and analyzed three image encoding methods for financial data.
result Image encoding methods improve CNN performance for financial ratio data but not significantly for fundamental data.
Combining various data types predicts S&P 500 stock prices with high accuracy.
problem Predicting S&P 500 stock prices with high accuracy.
method Combined technical, fundamental, and text data with machine learning models like Random Forest and LSTM.
result Achieved 66.18% accuracy in S&P 500 index prediction and 62.09% in individual stock prediction.
We study the topology of small covers from their fundamental groups. We find a way to obtain explicit presentations of the fundamental group of a small cover. Then we use these presentations to study the relations between the fundamental groups of a small cover and its facial submanifolds. In particular, we can determi…
Extends curve theory to non-smooth data with finite curvature and torsion.
problem Applying classical curve theory to non-smooth data.
method Using distributional derivative measures of functions of bounded variation.
result Essentially unique non-smooth curve solution with finite total curvature and torsion.
Fundamental Limits of Prediction, Generalization, and Recursion: An Entropic-Innovations Perspectivecs.LG
In this paper, we examine the fundamental performance limits of prediction, with or without side information. More specifically, we derive generic lower bounds on the norms of the prediction errors that are valid for any prediction algorithms and for any data distributions. Meanwhile, we combine the ent…
Enhances neural operators with physics knowledge for more accurate simulations.
problem Improving accuracy and generalization of neural operators for physical systems.
method Jointly learns from original PDEs and simplified forms, incorporating fundamental physics.
result Significant improvement in nRMSE across various PDE problems.
Study recovers Riemannian quantities from noisy data densities.
problem Recovering geometric structure from noisy data on submanifolds.
method Derive uniform small-noise expansions of noisy density and its derivatives; construct estimators for tangent spaces, intrinsic dimension, and second fundamental form.
result Fundamental Riemannian quantities identifiable from density derivatives.
Study uses LLMs to generate investor briefs from company reports and SEC filings.
problem Improving data analysis for individual investors.
method Preprocessed data, used gpt-4o model in RAG regime, evaluated by investors.
result LLMs can generate useful investor briefs from company reports and SEC filings.
Theory for algebraic data on categories via concentration structures.
problem Defining algebraic structures on categories.
method Introducing concentration structures and concentration monoids.
result Every group can be represented as a concentration monoid of a trivial category.
Fix a finite set of points in Euclidean -space $\euc^n$, thought of as a point-cloud sampling of a certain domain $D\subset\euc^n$. The Rips complex is a combinatorial simplicial complex based on proximity of neighbors that serves as an easily-computed but high-dimensional approximation to the homotopy type of . …
FinTradeBench benchmarks LLMs for financial reasoning combining company fundamentals and market signals.
problem Challenges in evaluating financial reasoning models for LLMs.
method Developed a benchmark integrating company fundamentals and trading signals, using a calibration-then-scaling framework.
result Clear performance gap between LLMs, retrieval improves reasoning over textual fundamentals but not trading signals.
Let M be a weakly monotone symplectic manifold, and H be a time-dependent Hamiltonian; we assume that the periodic orbits of the corresponding time-dependent Hamiltonian vector field are non-degenerate. We construct a refined version of the Floer chain complex associated to these data and any regular covering of M, and…
The main goal of statistical learning theory is to provide a fundamental framework for the problem of decision making and model construction based on sets of data. Here, we present a brief introduction to the fundamentals of statistical learning theory, in particular the difference between empirical and structural risk…
We consider the problems of robust PAC learning from distributed and streaming data, which may contain malicious errors and outliers, and analyze their fundamental complexity questions. In particular, we establish lower bounds on the communication complexity for distributed robust learning performed on multiple machine…
Paper proposes MMC to avoid high-density bias in clustering.
problem High-density bias in density-based clustering.
method Introduces mass distribution as a better foundation for clustering, proposing mass-maximization clustering (MMC).
result MMC avoids high-density bias and discovers clusters of arbitrary shapes, sizes, and densities.
This paper analyses the relationship between BitCoin price and supply-demand fundamentals of BitCoin, global macro-financial indicators and BitCoin attractiveness for investors. Using daily data for the period 2009-2014 and applying time-series analytical mechanisms, we find that BitCoin market fundamentals and BitCoin…
We study the limits and methods of training two-layer autoencoders.
problem Understanding the limits and methods of training two-layer autoencoders.
method Focus on non-linear two-layer autoencoders trained in the proportional regime, using gradient methods.
result Gradient methods achieve the minimizers of the population risk and reveal the structure of the features.
We study the gradient flow of the norm of the second fundamental form of smooth immersions of two-dimensional surfaces into compact Riemannian manifolds. By analogy with the results obtained for the Willmore flow in Riemannian manifolds, we prove lifespan estimates in terms of the concentration of the secon…
Study on matching nodes between graphs to preserve edges, focusing on limits and algorithms.
problem Matching nodes between graphs to preserve most edges, especially in random graphs.
method Investigates fundamental limits and designs algorithms to recover alignments in planted graphs.
result High probability guarantees on the success or failure of graph alignment algorithms.
Fundamental portfolio beats market portfolio under certain conditions.
problem Empirical evidence of fundamental portfolio outperformance.
method Theoretical foundation based on stock price reversion to fundamental values.
result Fundamental portfolio outperforms market portfolio under strong reversion conditions.
Despite the widespread use of machine learning algorithms to solve problems of technological, economic, and social relevance, provable guarantees on the performance of these data-driven algorithms are critically lacking, especially when the data originates from unreliable sources and is transmitted over unprotected and…
In this paper, we obtain fundamental bounds in sequential prediction and recursive algorithms via an entropic analysis. Both classes of problems are examined by investigating the underlying entropic relationships of the data and/or noises involved, and the derived lower bounds may all be quantified in…
New PU ratio predicts long-term Bitcoin returns better than other methods.
problem Lack of convincing proxies for cryptocurrency fundamentals.
method Developed a new market-to-fundamental ratio (PU ratio) using blockchain accounting methods.
result PU ratio effectively predicts long-term Bitcoin returns compared to alternative methods.
Classifies stable diffeomorphism of spin 4-manifolds with specific fundamental groups.
problem Classifying stable diffeomorphism of spin 4-manifolds with given fundamental groups.
method Formulated conjectural relationships between algebraic invariants and obstructions, proved for specific groups.
result Proved conjectures for specific fundamental groups, providing complete algebraic stable classification.
This paper outlines an agent-based model of a simple financial market in which a single asset is available for trade by three different types of traders. The model was first introduced in the PhD thesis of one of the authors, see reference [1]. The simulated log returns are examined for the presence of the stylised fac…
Proves Riemannian positive mass theorem with singularities.
problem Proves Riemannian positive mass theorem for specific types of singular manifolds.
method Uses initial data sets with a second fundamental form to transfer convexity between different singularity components.
result Proves the theorem for manifolds with some mean-concave components and others mean-convex.
This paper sets fundamental limits for rank-one matrix estimation with varying noise levels.
problem Estimating a rank-one matrix from Gaussian observations with different noise levels across blocks.
method Novel reduction from heterogeneous noise to homogeneous noise, proving asymptotic error bounds.
result Asymptotically exact formulas for minimum mean-squared error in estimating rank-one matrix and factors.
New tensors capture intrinsic embedding data of conformal hypersurfaces.
problem Classifying hypersurface invariants in conformal manifolds.
method Constructing curvatures and conformal fundamental forms.
result Finite family of tensors captures extrinsic embedding data.
Dealing with the shear size and complexity of today's massive data sets requires computational platforms that can analyze data in a parallelized and distributed fashion. A major bottleneck that arises in such modern distributed computing environments is that some of the worker nodes may run slow. These nodes a.k.a.~str…
Paper compares topological and pro-étale fundamental groups.
problem No specific problem stated; comparing two fundamental groups.
method Constructs a comparison map between topological and pro-étale fundamental groups.
result Establishes a map between fundamental groups.