Research
On-device research index

arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

Trend · papers per month

25.0%50.0%75.0%100.0% · Dec 199219922001200920172026
48 results for functional probabilistic layers

Hybrid Bayesian neural networks use function uncertainty for probabilistic inference.

problem Uncertainty in neural network weights is hard to specify and interpret.
method Integrates probabilistic layers with standard deterministic layers for function uncertainty.
result Improves probabilistic inference by encoding function uncertainty.

We describe Bayesian Layers, a module designed for fast experimentation with neural network uncertainty. It extends neural network libraries with drop-in replacements for common layers. This enables composition via a unified abstraction over deterministic and stochastic functions and allows for scalability via the unde…

2018-12-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Probabilistic graphical models are traditionally known for their successes in generative modeling. In this work, we advocate layered graphical models (LGMs) for probabilistic discriminative learning. To this end, we design LGMs in close analogy to neural networks (NNs), that is, they have deep hierarchical structures a…

2019-01-31abs ↗pdf ↗

ProFITi model forecasts irregular time series with missing values using conditional flows.

problem Probabilistic forecasting of irregularly sampled multivariate time series with missing values.
method ProFITi model uses conditional normalizing flows and invertible layers to learn joint distributions conditioned on past observations and queried channels and times.
result ProFITi model provides 4 times higher likelihood than the previous best model.

A generative Bayesian model is developed for deep (multi-layer) convolutional dictionary learning. A novel probabilistic pooling operation is integrated into the deep model, yielding efficient bottom-up and top-down probabilistic learning. After learning the deep convolutional dictionary, testing is implemented via dec…

2014-12-18abs ↗pdf ↗

A generative model is developed for deep (multi-layered) convolutional dictionary learning. A novel probabilistic pooling operation is integrated into the deep model, yielding efficient bottom-up (pretraining) and top-down (refinement) probabilistic learning. Experimental results demonstrate powerful capabilities of th…

2015-04-15abs ↗pdf ↗

EMFs combine deep learning and probabilistic models for better density estimation.

problem Combining domain-specific knowledge with general-purpose deep learning.
method Alternating transformations with structured layers that embed domain-specific inductive biases.
result EMFs induce desirable properties like multimodality and hierarchical coupling.

Study on rich regime training in deep learning, finding active parameters in bottom layers.

problem Understanding the practical success of deep learning models.
method Empirical study on rich regime training with benchmark datasets, re-initialization analysis, and probabilistic Layer-Wise Sparse SGD.
result Probabilistic Layer-Wise Sparse SGD matches vanilla SGD's generalization performance with improved efficiency.

Deep learning uses layers of transformations to predict structured data with uncertainty.

problem Predicting structured high-dimensional data efficiently and with uncertainty.
method Applying layers of semi-affine input transformations to find features for probabilistic statistical methods.
result Achieves scalable prediction rules with uncertainty quantification and feature selection.

Study on deep neural networks using concentration inequalities and optimal stopping.

problem Understanding the performance and structure of stochastic deep neural networks.
method Introduced concentration inequalities for SDNN outputs and an EC classifier. Determined the optimal number of layers via an optimal stopping procedure.
result Optimal number of layers for SDNNs determined via an optimal stopping procedure.

Probabilistic programming aids in automatically dating ice cores, reducing manual error and uncertainty.

problem Automatically dating ice cores with high accuracy and capturing uncertainty.
method Probabilistic models and probabilistic programming for automatic inference.
result Demonstrated the use of probabilistic programming for ice core dating, showcasing its benefits and limitations.

In this work, we introduce a novel probabilistic representation of deep learning, which provides an explicit explanation for the Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) in three aspects: (i) neurons define the energy of a Gibbs distribution; (ii) the hidden layers of DNNs formulate Gibbs distributions; and (iii) the whole architec…

2019-08-26abs ↗pdf ↗

A new beta-VAE based regression model accelerates oilfield optimization studies.

problem Computational expense of full-physics reservoir simulations.
method beta-VAE for interpretable latent space representation, probabilistic dense layers for uncertainty quantification.
result Interpretable latent representation and quantified uncertainty for optimization decisions.

Proposes a deep probabilistic multi-view model for multi-view learning.

problem Learning from multiple related views with shared latent structure.
method Probabilistic Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) in latent space, deep generative networks, variational inference.
result Efficient variational inference approximates posterior distributions of latent multi-view layer.

We study two-layer belief networks of binary random variables in which the conditional probabilities Pr[childlparents] depend monotonically on weighted sums of the parents. In large networks where exact probabilistic inference is intractable, we show how to compute upper and lower bounds on many probabilities of intere…

2013-01-30abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper provides a uniform convergence bound for smooth calibration error and its relationship with functional gradient.

problem Limited theoretical understanding of learning algorithms achieving high accuracy and good calibration.
method Focuses on smooth calibration error, providing a uniform convergence bound and proving the relationship with functional gradient.
result Derives conditions for simultaneous classification and calibration guarantees in gradient boosting trees, kernel boosting, and neural networks.

PHP connects to ReLU neural networks for scalable Bayesian inference.

problem Scalability and Bayesian inference in two-layer ReLU neural networks.
method PHP with Gaussian prior, decomposition propositions, annealed sequential Monte Carlo.
result PHP provides an alternative scalable representation for two-layer ReLU neural networks.

In this paper, we propose a probabilistic parsing model, which defines a proper conditional probability distribution over non-projective dependency trees for a given sentence, using neural representations as inputs. The neural network architecture is based on bi-directional LSTM-CNNs which benefits from both word- and …

2017-01-04abs ↗pdf ↗

We give a polynomial-time algorithm for learning neural networks with one layer of sigmoids feeding into any Lipschitz, monotone activation function (e.g., sigmoid or ReLU). We make no assumptions on the structure of the network, and the algorithm succeeds with respect to {\em any} distribution on the unit ball in nn

2017-09-18abs ↗pdf ↗

SVGP KAN integrates sparse variational GP with KANs for scalable probabilistic inference.

problem Lack of probabilistic outputs in standard KANs and cubic scaling of Gaussian Process methods.
method Sparse Variational GP-KAN combines KAN topology with sparse variational inference and permutation-based importance analysis.
result Enables probabilistic KANs to handle larger datasets with linear computational complexity.

Probabilistic deep learning uses neural networks and models to handle uncertainty.

problem Handling uncertainty in deep learning models.
method Two approaches: probabilistic neural networks and deep probabilistic models.
result TensorFlow Probability library supports both approaches.

Study introduces a probabilistic framework for air-sea fluxes using neural networks.

problem Accurately quantifying air-sea fluxes for understanding interactions and improving weather/climate models.
method Gaussian distributions conditioned on input variables, artificial neural networks, eddy-covariance data, minimizing negative log-likelihood loss.
result Trained neural networks provide alternative mean flux estimates and quantify uncertainty.

We propose the Limited Multi-Label (LML) projection layer as a new primitive operation for end-to-end learning systems. The LML layer provides a probabilistic way of modeling multi-label predictions limited to having exactly k labels. We derive efficient forward and backward passes for this layer and show how the layer…

2019-06-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Scaling ResNets requires careful consideration of the layer depth and output scaling factors.

problem Avoiding vanishing or exploding gradients in deep ResNets as depth increases.
method Probabilistic analysis and continuous-time limit interpretation of ResNets.
result The optimal scaling factor is αL=1Lα_L = \frac{1}{\sqrt{L}} for standard i.i.d. initializations.

Paper analyzes GCNN sensitivity to probabilistic graph perturbations.

problem Investigating how GCNNs handle probabilistic graph errors.
method Establishes error bounds and linear relationships between GSO perturbations and GCNN outputs.
result GCNNs maintain stability under graph edge perturbations if GSO errors are bounded.

Low bit-width weights and activations are an effective way of combating the increasing need for both memory and compute power of Deep Neural Networks. In this work, we present a probabilistic training method for Neural Network with both binary weights and activations, called BLRNet. By embracing stochasticity during tr…

2018-09-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Deep models predict intraday electricity prices accurately.

problem Accurately forecasting intraday electricity prices.
method Two deep time series probabilistic models using ESNs with stochastic disturbances and copulas.
result Deep distributional models provide accurate short-term probabilistic price forecasts.

K-DAREK improves KKANs for efficient function approximation with robust error bounds.

problem Efficient function approximation with uncertainty quantification for large-scale problems.
method Developed a novel learning algorithm, K-DAREK, for KKANs.
result Established robust error bounds that are distance-aware, improving efficiency and scalability.

A new method for Bayesian neural networks using probabilistic backpropagation.

problem Approximating posterior distributions in Bayesian neural networks.
method Variational Expectation Propagation (VEP) with probabilistic backpropagation.
result Efficient algorithm for approximate integration over posterior distributions.

Consider a feedforward neural network ψ:RdRdψ: \mathbb{R}^d\rightarrow \mathbb{R}^d such that ψfψ\approx \nabla f, where f:RdRf:\mathbb{R}^d \rightarrow \mathbb{R} is a smooth function, therefore ψψ must satisfy jψi=iψj\partial_j ψ_i = \partial_i ψ_j pointwise. We prove a theorem that a ψψ network with more than one hidden layer…

2019-10-28abs ↗pdf ↗

New insights into optimizing latent representations in hierarchical VAEs.

problem Optimizing latent representations in hierarchical VAEs for various applications.
method Identifying a general class of inference models and deriving theoretical bounds on performance.
result Guidance for practitioners on optimal regions in rate-space for different applications.

This paper introduces a probabilistic framework for k-shot image classification. The goal is to generalise from an initial large-scale classification task to a separate task comprising new classes and small numbers of examples. The new approach not only leverages the feature-based representation learned by a neural net…

2017-06-01abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes PSCs for UQ in deep nets without retraining.

problem Estimating uncertainty in deep nets with a single pass.
method Identifies sensitive, smooth intermediate layer, fits probabilistic model.
result PSCs achieve UQ and OOD detection performance matching existing methods.

INNs can approximate diverse functions despite layer restrictions.

problem Can INNs approximate sufficiently diverse functions?
method Developed a theoretical framework based on differential geometry to simplify the approximation problem of diffeomorphisms.
result INNs have the universal approximation property.

Normalizing flows are shown to be equivalent to Bayesian networks, revealing new insights.

problem Understanding the limitations and capabilities of normalizing flows.
method Revisiting normalizing flows as probabilistic graphical models and analyzing their structure.
result Normalizing flows can be reduced to Bayesian networks, revealing new insights into their structure and capabilities.

Quantitatively assessing relationships between latent variables and observed variables is important for understanding and developing generative models and representation learning. In this paper, we propose latent-observed dissimilarity (LOD) to evaluate the dissimilarity between the probabilistic characteristics of lat…

2016-03-30abs ↗pdf ↗