The paper develops predictors for functional data on manifolds.
problem Functional data prediction on time-varying manifolds.
method Least-squares local linear Fréchet curve predictor and weighted Fréchet mean approach.
result Asymptotical optimality of the proposed predictors.
New loss function reduces outage probability in ML-assisted resource allocation.
problem Minimizing outage probability in ML-assisted resource allocation systems.
method Developed a novel loss function and trained an ML model to address the outage probability challenge.
result Exact and asymptotic expressions for the system's outage probability were established.
Derives bounds for deterministic predictors using smooth loss functions.
problem Generalizing probabilistic predictors to deterministic ones.
method Exploits smoothness properties of loss and predictor classes, controlling the Jensen gap class through Rademacher complexity.
result Derives bounds for deterministic predictors involving flatness quantities from Jacobians and Hessians.
Predict covariance from features using convex optimization.
problem Predicting the covariance of a Gaussian vector from another feature vector.
method A generalized linear model with convex optimization for fitting parameters.
result Predicted covariance matrices are symmetric positive definite.
We provide a new approach to training neural models to exhibit transparency in a well-defined, functional manner. Our approach naturally operates over structured data and tailors the predictor, functionally, towards a chosen family of (local) witnesses. The estimation problem is setup as a co-operative game between an …
Derandomizing PAC-Bayes bounds for smooth loss functions
problem Derandomizing PAC-Bayes bounds for smooth loss functions
method Exploiting smoothness properties of both the loss and the predictor class
result Bounds for deterministic predictors that involve flatness quantities
This work improves structured prediction by learning the balance between signal and random noise.
problem Structured prediction with random perturbations.
method Learning the variance of randomized structured predictors to balance signal and noise.
result Learning the balance improves structured prediction effectiveness.
Although there is a rich literature on methods for allowing the variance in a univariate regression model to vary with predictors, time and other factors, relatively little has been done in the multivariate case. Our focus is on developing a class of nonparametric covariance regression models, which allow an unknown p …
A new method controls risk for set predictors using cross-validation.
problem Inefficient set predictors when data limited.
method Cross-validation conformal risk control (CV-CRC).
result CV-CRC offers theoretical guarantees and reduces set size.
Neural network predicts functional responses from scalar inputs.
problem Regression of functional responses with large scalar predictors and nonlinear relationships.
method Transform functional response to finite dimensions, design feed-forward neural network, modify output via objective functions, apply roughness penalty.
result Proposed neural network outperforms conventional methods in multiple scenarios.
Study shows linear predictors fail with missing data, but simpler approximations and neural networks can work.
problem Building predictors with missing data when the target is a linear function of observed data.
method Analyzed the Gaussian case and proposed a linear function of multiway interactions. Studied a simple approximation and proved generalization bounds. Showed multilayer perceptrons with ReLU activation can be consistent.
result Simple approximations and neural networks can be effective in handling missing data, especially with sufficient data.
We consider selection of random predictors for high-dimensional regression problem with binary response for a general loss function. Important special case is when the binary model is semiparametric and the response function is misspecified under parametric model fit. Selection for such a scenario aims at recovering th…
Interpretability has arisen as a key desideratum of machine learning models alongside performance. Approaches so far have been primarily concerned with fixed dimensional inputs emphasizing feature relevance or selection. In contrast, we focus on temporal modeling and the problem of tailoring the predictor, functionally…
Deep neural networks estimate regression functions on manifolds.
problem Estimating regression functions on manifolds from data.
method Fully connected deep neural networks with ReLU activation, analyzing convergence rates.
result Estimates achieve a rate of convergence dependent on manifold dimension, not predictor dimension.
This paper provides estimation and inference methods for the best linear predictor (approximation) of a structural function, such as conditional average structural and treatment effects, and structural derivatives, based on modern machine learning (ML) tools. We represent this structural function as a conditional expec…
Method constructs confidence regions for linear models with arbitrary predictors.
problem Constructing confidence regions for linear models with non-linear predictors.
method Mixed Integer Linear Programming for constraints.
result Empty confidence regions for hypothesis testing.
We analyze the (unconditional) distribution of a linear predictor that is constructed after a data-driven model selection step in a linear regression model. First, we derive the exact finite-sample cumulative distribution function (cdf) of the linear predictor, and a simple approximation to this (complicated) cdf. We t…
Optimizing proper loss yields calibrated models under specific conditions.
problem Understanding when optimizing proper loss functions leads to calibrated predictions.
method Local optimality condition and Lipschitz functions.
result Predictors with local optimality are nearly calibrated and nearly locally optimal.
Bayesian neural networks explore rare fluctuations for better feature learning.
problem Understanding rare but dominant fluctuations in Bayesian neural networks.
method Large-deviation theory and joint optimization over predictors and internal kernels.
result Posterior rate function optimization reveals data-dependent kernel selection.
Empirically, the PAC-Bayesian analysis is known to produce tight risk bounds for practical machine learning algorithms. However, in its naive form, it can only deal with stochastic predictors while such predictors are rarely used and deterministic predictors often performs well in practice. To fill this gap, we develop…
Improves Lasso's stability in correlated predictor settings.
problem Lasso's selection stability deteriorates with correlated predictors.
method Integrates a weighting scheme into the Lasso penalty function, using a correlation-adjusted ranking.
result Demonstrates improved selection stability on simulated and real-world datasets.
Study fairness in ordinal regression using threshold models.
problem Fairness in ordinal regression predictions.
method Adapted fairness notions from fair ranking; use threshold model with scoring function and thresholds; apply binary classification for scoring function and local search for thresholds.
result Generalization guarantees on predictor error and fairness violation; effectiveness demonstrated in experiments.
Efficiency criteria improve conformal predictors' performance.
problem Improving the performance of conformal predictors.
method Learning classifiers by minimizing observed fuzziness as a training objective function.
result Conformal predictors trained by minimizing observed fuzziness perform better than traditional ones.
New methods for CI testing under model misspecification.
problem Challenges in CI testing with misspecified models.
method Proposes new approximations and upper bounds for testing errors of regression-based CI tests.
result Introduces the Rao-Blackwellized Predictor Test (RBPT) robust against misspecified inductive biases.
Developed R package for creating nomograms for any ML algorithms.
problem Creating nomograms for any machine learning algorithms.
method Formulated a function to transform ML prediction models into nomograms, requiring specific datasets.
result Created 5 types of nomograms for various ML algorithms and predictor types.
DynForest R package predicts outcomes with time-dependent predictors.
problem Handling time-dependent predictors in random forest models.
method Random forests with time-dependent predictors summarized using flexible linear mixed models.
result DynForest can predict continuous, categorical, and survival outcomes.
In machine learning and data mining, linear models have been widely used to model the response as parametric linear functions of the predictors. To relax such stringent assumptions made by parametric linear models, additive models consider the response to be a summation of unknown transformations applied on the predict…
New neural network models for complex functional data analysis.
problem Complex relations between functional predictors and responses.
method Function-on-Function regression models using neural networks with continuous hidden layers.
result Demonstrated power and flexibility in handling complex functional models.
Develops methods for selecting and estimating smooth functional coefficients in high-dimensional multivariate functional data.
problem Functional predictor selection and estimation of smooth functional coefficients in high-dimensional multivariate functional data.
method Functional group-sparse regression methods in a generic Hilbert space of infinite dimension.
result Consistency of estimation and selection (oracle property) under infinite-dimensional Hilbert spaces.
Loss minimization leads to multicalibration for neural networks.
problem Ensuring fairness in predictions across multiple protected groups.
method Minimizing squared loss over neural networks of size n.
result Minimizing loss over neural nets of size n implies multicalibration for most values of n.
Proposes a new method for multivariate functional regression.
problem Multivariate functional regression with complex relationships.
method Nested reduced-rank regularization (NRRR) approach.
result Consistent and effective in fitting multivariate functional regression models.
We carefully study how well minimizing convex surrogate loss functions, corresponds to minimizing the misclassification error rate for the problem of binary classification with linear predictors. In particular, we show that amongst all convex surrogate losses, the hinge loss gives essentially the best possible bound, o…
New machine learning paradigm ignores loss function until action time.
problem Learning with unknown loss functions.
method Introduces omnipredictors for any loss function.
result Extracts predictive power from any class, ignoring loss function.
BANANAS uses Bayesian optimization with neural predictors to improve neural architecture search.
problem Improving neural architecture search (NAS) performance.
method BANANAS combines Bayesian optimization with neural predictors, focusing on architecture encoding, predictor, uncertainty calibration, acquisition function, and optimization strategy.
result BANANAS achieves state-of-the-art performance on NAS search spaces.
A new knockoff statistic using conditional prediction function improves variable selection in complex models.
problem Controlling false discovery rate in complex models with nonlinear relationships.
method Introducing a knockoff statistic based on the conditional prediction function for use with machine learning models.
result The CPF statistics provide superior power in detecting prognostic variables over existing knockoff statistics.
Overparameterized MLR fits hyper-curves, improving model robustness.
problem Improper predictors degrade model generalizability.
method Parameterizing with a scalar and monomial basis, fitting hyper-curves.
result Hyper-curve approach yields robust predictions for noisy data.
Proposes a new method to learn representations directly optimized for a task.
problem Learning representations optimized for unrelated tasks.
method Jointly learns representation and prediction function for a specific task.
result Learned representations outperform pre-trained ones and are more sample-efficient.
New method uses neural networks for estimating survival functions from censored data.
problem Estimating conditional survival functions from censored time-to-event data with complex predictors.
method Generative adversarial networks leveraging self-consistent equations, without parametric assumptions.
result Established the convergence rate of the proposed estimator.
In this article, we derive concentration inequalities for the cross-validation estimate of the generalization error for stable predictors in the context of risk assessment. The notion of stability has been first introduced by \cite{DEWA79} and extended by \cite{KEA95}, \cite{BE01} and \cite{KUNIY02} to characterize cla…
Loss minimisation fails to capture epistemic uncertainty in second-order predictors.
problem Capturing epistemic uncertainty in machine learning models.
method Analysis of a second-order learner approach using loss minimisation.
result Loss minimisation does not faithfully represent epistemic uncertainty in second-order predictors.
New method improves knockoff filter for correlated predictors.
problem Improving power of knockoff filters for correlated designs.
method Conditional Independence knockoff procedure for Gaussian tree graphical models.
result Conditional Independence knockoff outperforms sophisticated methods.
A new method to explain black box models using Shapley values.
problem Quantifying the impact of individual input variables in black box functions.
method Cohort Shapley measure based on cooperative game theory, using similarity cohorts.
result Introduces a new squared cohort Shapley value for variable importance.
DynForest predicts event probabilities from longitudinal data, handling endogenous predictors.
problem Predicting individual risk using longitudinal patient history.
method Random survival forests with time-fixed features from longitudinal predictors.
result DynForest provides accurate individual event probability predictions.
Optimal regression with reject option using conditional variance thresholding.
problem Regression with reject option to handle uncertain predictions.
method Derive optimal rule based on thresholding conditional variance, semi-supervised estimation using labeled and unlabeled data.
result The predictor with reject option is almost as good as the optimal predictor in terms of risk and rejection rate.
Proposes a two-stage method for selecting correlated predictors in high-dimensional data.
problem Selecting correlated predictors in high-dimensional data with unknown group structures.
method Two-stage approach: variable clustering followed by group selection.
result The two-stage method improves prediction accuracy and active predictor selection.
Two new approaches for point prediction in streaming data, showing consistency and performance.
problem Predicting points in streaming data without a true model.
method Count-Min sketch and Gaussian process priors with random bias.
result CMS-based estimates are consistent under i.i.d. samples assumption.
In this paper, we consider a generalized multivariate regression problem where the responses are monotonic functions of linear transformations of predictors. We propose a semi-parametric algorithm based on the ordering of the responses which is invariant to the functional form of the transformation function. We prove t…
In this paper, we study the prediction of a circularly symmetric zero-mean stationary Gaussian process from a window of observations consisting of finitely many samples. This is a prevalent problem in a wide range of applications in communication theory and signal processing. Due to stationarity, when the autocorrelati…