A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A new approach to continual learning using fully probabilistic models.
In this work we introduce the notion of fully incomplete markets. We prove that for these markets the super-replication price coincide with the model free super-replication price. Namely, the knowledge of the model does not reduce the super-replication price. We provide two families of fully incomplete models: stochast…
State-space models (SSMs) are a highly expressive model class for learning patterns in time series data and for system identification. Deterministic versions of SSMs (e.g. LSTMs) proved extremely successful in modeling complex time series data. Fully probabilistic SSMs, however, are often found hard to train, even for …
We introduce Dimple, a fully open-source API for probabilistic modeling. Dimple allows the user to specify probabilistic models in the form of graphical models, Bayesian networks, or factor graphs, and performs inference (by automatically deriving an inference engine from a variety of algorithms) on the model. Dimple a…
In this paper, we pursue the study of second order BSDEs with jumps (2BSDEJs for short) started in our accompanying paper [15]. We prove existence of these equations by a direct method, thus providing complete wellposedness for 2BSDEJs. These equations are a natural candidate for the probabilistic interpretation of som…
Probabilistic programs with dynamic computation graphs can define measures over sample spaces with unbounded dimensionality, which constitute programmatic analogues to Bayesian nonparametrics. Owing to the generality of this model class, inference relies on `black-box' Monte Carlo methods that are often not able to tak…
The Gibbs sampler is one of the most popular algorithms for inference in statistical models. In this paper, we introduce a herding variant of this algorithm, called herded Gibbs, that is entirely deterministic. We prove that herded Gibbs has an convergence rate for models with independent variables and for ful…
It is time-consuming and error-prone to implement inference procedures for each new probabilistic model. Probabilistic programming addresses this problem by allowing a user to specify the model and having a compiler automatically generate an inference procedure for it. For this approach to be practical, it is important…
The PARAFAC2 is a multimodal factor analysis model suitable for analyzing multi-way data when one of the modes has incomparable observation units, for example because of differences in signal sampling or batch sizes. A fully probabilistic treatment of the PARAFAC2 is desirable in order to improve robustness to noise an…
We make the following striking observation: fully convolutional VAE models trained on 32x32 ImageNet can generalize well, not just to 64x64 but also to far larger photographs, with no changes to the model. We use this property, applying fully convolutional models to lossless compression, demonstrating a method to scale…
We investigate learning of the differential geometric structure of a data manifold embedded in a high-dimensional Euclidean space. We first analyze kernel-based algorithms and show that under the usual regularizations, non-probabilistic methods cannot recover the differential geometric structure, but instead find mostl…
New insights into risk aversion for complex decision models.
Paper proposes Monarch matrices for scalable probabilistic circuits.
Probabilistic label trees improve XMLC by organizing labels hierarchically.
CNNs improve wind speed forecasts in the Netherlands.
Kernel Bayesian inference is a principled approach to nonparametric inference in probabilistic graphical models, where probabilistic relationships between variables are learned from data in a nonparametric manner. Various algorithms of kernel Bayesian inference have been developed by combining kernelized basic probabil…
New entropy-based objective for sparse coding improves learning.
Enhances Bayesian model comparison with a probabilistic framework for meta-uncertainty.
Paper proposes a universal probabilistic model for handling instance-dependent label noise.
In this document we are going to derive the equations needed to implement a Variational Bayes estimation of the parameters of the simplified probabilistic linear discriminant analysis (SPLDA) model. This can be used to adapt SPLDA from one database to another with few development data or to implement the fully Bayesian…
New scoring rules compare probabilistic top lists in classification.
Physics-informed deep learning for PDEs solves forward and inverse problems efficiently.
Sum-Product Networks (SPNs) are hierarchical, graphical models that combine benefits of deep learning and probabilistic modeling. SPNs offer unique advantages to applications demanding exact probabilistic inference over high-dimensional, noisy inputs. Yet, compared to convolutional neural nets, they struggle with captu…
We introduce a fully probabilistic framework of consumer product choice based on quality assessment. It allows us to capture many aspects of marketing such as partial information asymmetry, quality differentiation, and product placement in a supermarket.
Paper proposes DAG-DB for learning discrete DAGs via backpropagation.
This note clarifies connections between Föllmer process and DDPM sampler.
New approach improves linear-time attention for language models.
We present a probabilistic framework for both (i) determining the initial settings of kernel adaptive filters (KAFs) and (ii) constructing fully-adaptive KAFs whereby in addition to weights and dictionaries, kernel parameters are learnt sequentially. This is achieved by formulating the estimator as a probabilistic mode…
Existing methods for structure discovery in time series data construct interpretable, compositional kernels for Gaussian process regression models. While the learned Gaussian process model provides posterior mean and variance estimates, typically the structure is learned via a greedy optimization procedure. This restri…
Developing stable and scalable probabilistic ODE solvers for stiff and high-dimensional problems.
Proposes a cost-sensitive method to generate probabilistic SVM outputs.
Stochastic variational inference offers an attractive option as a default method for differentiable probabilistic programming. However, the performance of the variational approach depends on the choice of an appropriate variational family. Here, we introduce automatic structured variational inference (ASVI), a fully au…
We propose stochastic, non-parametric activation functions that are fully learnable and individual to each neuron. Complexity and the risk of overfitting are controlled by placing a Gaussian process prior over these functions. The result is the Gaussian process neuron, a probabilistic unit that can be used as the basic…
The Bitcoin transaction graph is a public data structure organized as transactions between addresses, each associated with a logical entity. In this work, we introduce a complete probabilistic model of the Bitcoin Blockchain. We first formulate a set of conditional dependencies induced by the Bitcoin protocol at the bl…
Compute and memory constraints have historically prevented traffic simulation software users from fully utilizing the predictive models underlying them. When calibrating car-following models, particularly, accommodations have included 1) using sensitivity analysis to limit the number of parameters to be calibrated, and…
New method learns policies from past data.
The study uses Gaussian Processes with Tweedie likelihood for forecasting intermittent time series.
New neural network models speed up Bayesian multilevel modeling.
Paper optimizes material microstructures with limited data using probabilistic methods.
Proposes a probabilistic approach to semi-supervised learning using normalizing flows.
BLISS detects and separates astronomical sources quickly and accurately.
The study analyzes how probabilistic forecasts improve battery trading strategies in electricity markets.
Method improves microbial biomass yield estimation from noisy data.
Statistical relational models provide compact encodings of probabilistic dependencies in relational domains, but result in highly intractable graphical models. The goal of lifted inference is to carry out probabilistic inference without needing to reason about each individual separately, by instead treating exchangeabl…
Reinforcement Learning (RL) has demonstrated state-of-the-art results in a number of autonomous system applications, however many of the underlying algorithms rely on black-box predictions. This results in poor explainability of the behaviour of these systems, raising concerns as to their use in safety-critical applica…
We propose a probabilistic generative model for unsupervised learning of structured, interpretable, object-based representations of visual scenes. We use amortized variational inference to train the generative model end-to-end. The learned representations of object location and appearance are fully disentangled, and ob…
PAC-Bayesian bounds show fully connected DNNs with Gaussian priors match minimax rates.
Exact Bayesian inference for discrete models using probability generating functions.