A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
FATE predicts user engagement on social apps with explainable explanations.
New framework for knots on Seifert surfaces, no universal host.
In this paper, we explore salient questions about user interests, conversations and friendships in the Facebook social network, using a novel latent space model that integrates several data types. A key challenge of studying Facebook's data is the wide range of data modalities such as text, network links, and categoric…
Interpersonal relations are fickle, with close friendships often dissolving into enmity. In this work, we explore linguistic cues that presage such transitions by studying dyadic interactions in an online strategy game where players form alliances and break those alliances through betrayal. We characterize friendships …
Study classifies graphs with positive curvature without quadrilaterals.
Link prediction is one of the fundamental problems in network analysis. In many applications, notably in genetics, a partially observed network may not contain any negative examples of absent edges, which creates a difficulty for many existing supervised learning approaches. We develop a new method which treats the obs…
We propose a friend recommendation system (an application of link prediction) using edge embeddings on social networks. Most real-world social networks are multi-graphs, where different kinds of relationships (e.g. chat, friendship) are possible between a pair of users. Existing network embedding techniques do not leve…
A limitation of the Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) is that it assumes at a particular layer of the neural network model only the order neighbourhood nodes of a social network are influential. Furthermore, the GCN has been evaluated on citation and knowledge graphs, but not extensively on friendsh…
As research into community finding in social networks progresses, there is a need for algorithms capable of detecting overlapping community structure. Many algorithms have been proposed in recent years that are capable of assigning each node to more than a single community. The performance of these algorithms tends to …
ALPINE predicts links in networks by querying the most informative pairs.
Networks capture our intuition about relationships in the world. They describe the friendships between Facebook users, interactions in financial markets, and synapses connecting neurons in the brain. These networks are richly structured with cliques of friends, sectors of stocks, and a smorgasbord of cell types that go…
The ubiquitous proliferation of online social networks has led to the widescale emergence of relational graphs expressing unique patterns in link formation and descriptive user node features. Matrix Factorization and Completion have become popular methods for Link Prediction due to the low rank nature of mutual node fr…
Graph edges, along with their labels, can represent information of fundamental importance, such as links between web pages, friendship between users, the rating given by users to other users or items, and much more. We introduce LEAP, a trainable, general framework for predicting the presence and properties of edges on…
Study predicts social relationships using triadic influence from social networks.
SLIM model predicts social network polarization using signed links.
Signed networks contain both positive and negative kinds of interactions like friendship and enmity. The task of node classification in non-signed graphs has proven to be beneficial in many real world applications, yet extensions to signed networks remain largely unexplored. In this paper we introduce the first analysi…
Reasoning about graphs evolving over time is a challenging concept in many domains, such as bioinformatics, physics, and social networks. We consider a common case in which edges can be short term interactions (e.g., messaging) or long term structural connections (e.g., friendship). In practice, long term edges are oft…
We consider a two-sample hypothesis testing problem, where the distributions are defined on the space of undirected graphs, and one has access to only one observation from each model. A motivating example for this problem is comparing the friendship networks on Facebook and LinkedIn. The practical approach to such prob…
We present a simple agent-based model to study the development of a bubble and the consequential crash and investigate how their proximate triggering factor might relate to their fundamental mechanism, and vice versa. Our agents invest according to their opinion on future price movements, which is based on three source…
Method finds interestingly dense subgroup connections in graphs.
In this paper, we consider the matrix completion problem when the observations are one-bit measurements of some underlying matrix M, and in particular the observed samples consist only of ones and no zeros. This problem is motivated by modern applications such as recommender systems and social networks where only "like…
We discuss a possible solution to an unintended consequence of having grades, certificates, rankings and other diversions in the act of transferring knowledge; and zoom in specifically to the topic of having grades, on a curve. We conduct a thought experiment, taking a chapter (and some more?) from the financial market…
New approach learns latent motifs in networks for mesoscale structure analysis.
InfDetect detects e-commerce insurance fraud using graph analysis.
The paper provides statistical theory and intuition for personalized PageRank (called "PPR"): a popular technique that samples a small community from a massive network. We study a setting where the entire network is expensive to obtain thoroughly or to maintain, but we can start from a seed node of interest and "crawl"…
Joint analysis of data from multiple sources has the potential to improve our understanding of the underlying structures in complex data sets. For instance, in restaurant recommendation systems, recommendations can be based on rating histories of customers. In addition to rating histories, customers' social networks (e…
Graph matching in noisy environments with Markovian errors.
Enhances community detection in correlated networks with node attributes.
TGCN learns from multi-relational graphs, improving SSL performance.
Almost universally, wealth is not distributed uniformly within societies or economies. Even though wealth data have been collected in various forms for centuries, the origins for the observed wealth-disparity and social inequality are not yet fully understood. Especially the impact and connections of human behavior on …
Fuzzy prediction sets generalize binary predictions to include elements at varying confidence levels.
This paper re-examines conformal e-prediction and its advantages over conformal prediction.
Self-calibrating conformal prediction improves interval efficiency and offers a practical alternative.
Study uses deep learning to predict asset prices, finds complex target processes lead to meaningless predictions.
The paper emphasizes the importance of joint predictions over marginal predictions for decision-making.
Behavior modification improves prediction accuracy by nudging user behavior.
Conformal predictive systems are a recent modification of conformal predictors that output, in regression problems, probability distributions for labels of test observations rather than set predictions. The extra information provided by conformal predictive systems may be useful, e.g., in decision making problems. Conf…
Predictions can shape outcomes, study helps predict these effects.
Prediction problems often admit competing models that perform almost equally well. This effect challenges key assumptions in machine learning when competing models assign conflicting predictions. In this paper, we define predictive multiplicity as the ability of a prediction problem to admit competing models with confl…
Proposes feature conformal prediction for broader application in semantic feature spaces.
Acute kidney injury (AKI) commonly occurs in hospitalized patients and can lead to serious medical complications. In order to optimally predict AKI before it develops at any time during a hospital stay, we present a novel framework in which AKI is continually predicted automatically from EHR data over the entire hospit…
AutoCP automates the construction of accurate prediction intervals.
Proposes a method to apply conformal prediction to probabilistic time series forecasting models.
ICP improves prediction intervals for continuous outcomes at lower computational cost.
Optimizes predictions for specific tasks using parametrized decision analysis.
New measures for prediction validity and consonant plausibility introduced.
RFpredInterval package builds prediction intervals for random forests and boosted forests.
FPPI selectively uses predictions to improve inference efficiency.