arXiv research

We derive an extremal fractional Gaussian by employing the Lévy-Khintchine theorem and Lévian noise. With the fractional Gaussian we then generalize the Black-Scholes-Merton option-pricing formula. We obtain an easily applicable and exponentially convergent option-pricing formula for fractional markets. We also carry o…

The so-called level crossing analysis has been used to investigate the empirical data set. But there is a lack of interpretation for what is reflected by the level crossing results. The fractional Gaussian noise as a well-defined stochastic series could be a suitable benchmark to make the level crossing findings more s…

Study large deviations in fractional volatility models with non-Gaussian volatility.

New framework assesses regularization norms in ill-posed problems, revealing L2 instability and proposing adaptive fractional RKHS solutions.

Python package for estimating Hurst exponent in fBm.

We consider the problem of estimating the mean and covariance of a distribution from iid samples in $\mathbb{R}^n$, in the presence of an $η$ fraction of malicious noise; this is in contrast to much recent work where the noise itself is assumed to be from a distribution of known type. The agnostic problem includes many…

G-framework is presented by Peng [41] for measure risk under uncertainty. In this paper, we define fractional G-Brownian motion (fGBm). Fractional G-Brownian motion is a centered G-Gaussian process with zero mean and stationary increments in the sense of sub-linearity with Hurst index $H\in (0,1)$. This process has sta…

Composite likelihood inference of fractional Gaussian processes with sequentially optimal subset selection

Volatility roughness studied using fractional noise-driven models.

Recent studies on diffusion-based sampling methods have shown that Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) algorithms can be beneficial for non-convex optimization, and rigorous theoretical guarantees have been proven for both asymptotic and finite-time regimes. Algorithmically, LMC-based algorithms resemble the well-known gradient…

We study fractional stochastic volatility models in which the volatility process is a positive continuous function $σ$ of a continuous Gaussian process $\widehat{B}$. Forde and Zhang established a large deviation principle for the log-price process in such a model under the assumptions that the function $σ$ is globally…

This paper provides an algorithm for simulating improper (or noncircular) complex-valued stationary Gaussian processes. The technique utilizes recently developed methods for multivariate Gaussian processes from the circulant embedding literature. The method can be performed in $\mathcal{O}(n\log_2 n)$ operations, where…

The paper develops adaptive confidence intervals for Efron's Gaussian two-groups model with unknown contamination.

The study tackles rough noise in high-frequency financial data using fractional Brownian motion.

We consider the problem of estimating the support of a vector $β^* \in \mathbb{R}^{p}$ based on observations contaminated by noise. A significant body of work has studied behavior of $\ell_1$-relaxations when applied to measurement matrices drawn from standard dense ensembles (e.g., Gaussian, Bernoulli). In this paper,…

New algorithms recover signals robustly against outliers and heavy-tailed noise.

We develop a variational framework for SDEs driven by fractional noise.

Paper develops Euler scheme for fractional delay diff. eqs with additive noise.

A stochastic theory for the toppling activity in sandpile models is developed, based on a simple mean-field assumption about the toppling process. The theory describes the process as an anti-persistent Gaussian walk, where the diffusion coefficient is proportional to the activity. It is formulated as a generalization o…

Fractional porous media equations yield q-Gaussian solutions for stock price returns.

New robust regression method works with fewer data points than previous methods.

Study confirms rough volatility in financial data, independent of microstructure noise.

Based on empirical market data, a stochastic volatility model is proposed with volatility driven by fractional noise. The model is used to obtain a risk-neutrality option pricing formula and an option pricing equation.

We consider so-called regular invertible Gaussian Volterra processes and derive a formula for their prediction laws. Examples of such processes include the fractional Brownian motions and the mixed fractional Brownian motions. As an application, we consider conditional-mean hedging under transaction costs in Black-Scho…

NANSDE-Net models time series with memory using neural ARMA-type noise.

We address the problem of computing approximate marginals in Gaussian probabilistic models by using mean field and fractional Bethe approximations. We define the Gaussian fractional Bethe free energy in terms of the moment parameters of the approximate marginals, derive a lower and an upper bound on the fractional Beth…

Robust Kalman filter for corrupted measurements.

Develops efficient estimators for PCA and sparse regression in the presence of oblivious outliers.

Notwithstanding the significant efforts to develop estimators of long-range correlations (LRC) and to compare their performance, no clear consensus exists on what is the best method and under which conditions. In addition, synthetic tests suggest that the performance of LRC estimators varies when using different genera…

Unified analysis of Gaussian Process Thompson Sampling without discretization.

We address the problem of computing approximate marginals in Gaussian probabilistic models by using mean field and fractional Bethe approximations. As an extension of Welling and Teh (2001), we define the Gaussian fractional Bethe free energy in terms of the moment parameters of the approximate marginals and derive an …

Privacy subsidy found in market trading with noisy direction signals.

Adaptive Langevin dynamics reduces bias in Bayesian inference with mini-batching.

Modeling financial markets with memory using fractional calculus and Brownian motion.

Robust clustering algorithm for datasets with outliers.

Based on criteria of mathematical simplicity and consistency with empirical market data, a model with volatility driven by fractional noise has been constructed which provides a fairly accurate mathematical parametrization of the data. Here, some features of the model are discussed and, using agent-based models, one tr…

The paper tackles resource allocation for arms with unknown and random rewards, achieving optimal regret bounds.

Based on criteria of mathematical simplicity and consistency with empirical market data, a stochastic volatility model is constructed, the volatility process being driven by fractional noise. Price return statistics and asymptotic behavior are derived from the model and compared with data. Deviations from Black-Scholes…

Extends fractional $L^p$ uncertainty principles with extremizers and stability results.

New method uses fractional posteriors for semiparametric inference with improved uncertainty quantification.

Statistical Query lower bound shows difficulty in list-decodable linear regression.

The Kalman filter is extensively used for state estimation for linear systems under Gaussian noise. When non-Gaussian Lévy noise is present, the conventional Kalman filter may fail to be effective due to the fact that the non-Gaussian Lévy noise may have infinite variance. A modified Kalman filter for linear systems wi…

Continuous time random walks impose a random waiting time before each particle jump. Scaling limits of heavy tailed continuous time random walks are governed by fractional evolution equations. Space-fractional derivatives describe heavy tailed jumps, and the time-fractional version codes heavy tailed waiting times. Thi…

Data-driven discovery of "hidden physics" -- i.e., machine learning of differential equation models underlying observed data -- has recently been approached by embedding the discovery problem into a Gaussian Process regression of spatial data, treating and discovering unknown equation parameters as hyperparameters of a…

We present techniques for effective Gaussian process (GP) modelling of multiple short time series. These problems are common when applying GP models independently to each gene in a gene expression time series data set. Such sets typically contain very few time points. Naive application of common GP modelling techniques…

Paper introduces a new optimization method for imbalanced datasets.

Rough volatility models are becoming increasingly popular in quantitative finance. In this framework, one considers that the behavior of the log-volatility process of a financial asset is close to that of a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter around 0.1. Motivated by this, we wish to define a natural and re…

This paper examines multifractal dynamics in cryptocurrencies using two methodologies.