arXiv research

We investigate whether fractal markets hypothesis and its focus on liquidity and invest- ment horizons give reasonable predictions about dynamics of the financial markets during the turbulences such as the Global Financial Crisis of late 2000s. Compared to the mainstream efficient markets hypothesis, fractal markets hy…

We analyze whether the prediction of the fractal markets hypothesis about a dominance of specific investment horizons during turbulent times holds. To do so, we utilize the continuous wavelet transform analysis and obtained wavelet power spectra which give the crucial information about the variance distribution across …

The paper analyzes long-range correlations in bond markets using DMA method.

This paper is an attempt at understanding the quantum-like dynamics of financial markets in terms of non-differentiable price-time continuum having fractal properties. The main steps of this development are the statistical scaling, the non-differentiability hypothesis, and the equations of motion entailed by this hypot…

Study on heat content for domains with fractal boundaries.

The fractal model improves risk parity strategy for better risk management.

Study the link between entropy and market efficiency using fractal properties.

Fractal analysis is carried out on the stock market indices of seven European countries and the US. We find evidence of long range dependence in the log return series of the Mibtel (Italy) and the PX Glob (Czech Republic). Long range dependence implies that predictable patterns in the log returns do not dissipate quick…

This study analyzes how the Indian stock market reacts to budget announcements using fractal methods.

Optimizes market-neutral portfolios using fractal models.

We investigate the local fractal properties of the financial time series based on the evolution of the Warsaw Stock Exchange Index (WIG) connected with the largest developing financial market in Europe. Calculating the local Hurst exponent for the WIG time series we find an interesting dependence between the behavior o…

The presence of log-periodic structures before and after stock market crashes is considered to be an imprint of an intrinsic discrete scale invariance (DSI) in this complex system. The fractal framework of the theory leaves open the possibility of observing self-similar log-periodic structures at different time scales.…

Unified bounds linking compressibility, fractal dimensions, and mutual information.

In this pre-print we explore the multi-fractal properties of 1 minute traded volume of the equities which compose the Dow Jones 30. We also evaluate the weights of linear and non-linear dependences in the multi-fractal structure of the observable. Our results show that the multi-fractal nature of traded volume comes es…

PAC-Bayesian theory applied to data-dependent hypothesis sets yields uniform generalization bounds.

We utilize long-term memory, fractal dimension and approximate entropy as input variables for the Efficiency Index [Kristoufek & Vosvrda (2013), Physica A 392]. This way, we are able to comment on stock market efficiency after controlling for different types of inefficiencies. Applying the methodology on 38 stock marke…

Study on price-volume correlation fractal features and market type effects.

We introduce a new measure for the capital market efficiency. The measure takes into consideration the correlation structure of the returns (long-term and short-term memory) and local herding behavior (fractal dimension). The efficiency measure is taken as a distance from an ideal efficient market situation. Methodolog…

New bounds explain modern machine learning algorithms' generalization.

This study examines asymmetric cross-correlations in cryptocurrency markets using fractal analysis.

We propose a model of fractal point process driven by the nonlinear stochastic differential equation. The model is adjusted to the empirical data of trading activity in financial markets. This reproduces the probability distribution function and power spectral density of trading activity observed in the stock markets. …

We study a well-known estimator of the fractal index of a stochastic process. Our framework is very general and encompasses many models of interest; we show how to extend the theory of the estimator to a large class of non-Gaussian processes. Particular focus is on clarity and ease of implementation of the estimator an…

Complex volatility leads to chaotic fractals in option pricing.

We test for departures from normal and independent and identically distributed (NIID) returns, when returns under the alternative hypothesis are self-affine. Self-affine returns are either fractionally integrated and long-range dependent, or drawn randomly from an L-stable distribution with infinite higher-order moment…

This work proves generalization bounds for neural networks without Lipschitz assumptions.

Bitcoin price shows both chaos and order, with multi-scale correlation structure.

Financial markets are well known examples of multi-fractal complex systems that have garnered much interest in their characterization through complex network theory. The recent studies have used correlation based distance metrics for defining and analyzing financial networks. In this work the singularity strength is em…

We perform an analysis of fractal properties of the positive and the negative changes of the German DAX30 index separately using Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA). By calculating the singularity spectra $f(α)$ we show that returns of both signs reveal multiscaling. Curiously, these spectra display a s…

The paper examines Bitcoin's nature using fractal geometry and finds it highly persistent, affecting predictability and decentralization.

Study shows market volatility arises from riskless opportunities not being available.

Paper introduces quadrilateral labyrinth fractals and their properties.

This paper uses topology to analyze financial price scaling.

We apply a simple trading strategy for various time series of real and artificial stock prices to understand the origin of fractality observed in the resulting profit landscapes. The strategy contains only two parameters $p$ and $q$, and the sell (buy) decision is made when the log return is larger (smaller) than $p$ (…

A method to construct fractal surfaces by recurrent fractal curves is provided. First we construct fractal interpolation curves using a recurrent iterated functions system(RIFS) with function scaling factors and estimate their box-counting dimension. Then we present a method of construction of wider class of fractal su…

Supermixed labyrinth fractals extend mixed fractals by using multiple patterns.

New theoretical approaches about forecasting stock markets are proposed. A mathematization of the stock market in terms of arithmetical relations is given, where some simple (non-differential, non-fractal) expressions are also suggested as general stock price formuli in closed forms which are able to generate a variety…

Algorithm reconstructs fractals from point clouds with high precision.

FGN models networks with fractal structures using Gaussian Multiplicative Chaos.

Knots can be embedded into fractals like the Menger Sponge and Sierpinski Tetrahedron.

Mixed labyrinth fractals can have finite or infinite arc lengths.

We investigate the structure of the profit landscape obtained from the most basic, fluctuation based, trading strategy applied for the daily stock price data. The strategy is parameterized by only two variables, p and q. Stocks are sold and bought if the log return is bigger than p and less than -q, respectively. Repet…

A new multiagent model of the stock market is formulated that contains four states in which the agents may be located. Next, the model is reformulated in the language of the functional integral containing fluctuations of prices and quantities of cash flows. It is shown that in the functional integral of that type descr…

As demonstrated during the recent financial crisis, regulators require additional analytical tools to assess systemic risk in the financial sector. This paper describes one such tool; namely a novel market modeling and analysis capability. Our model builds upon two leading market models: one which emphasizes market mic…

This note comprises a negative resolution of the Efficient Market Hypothesis.

Paper proves existence of area-minimizing submanifolds on almost any manifold with fractal singular sets.

We find prominent similarities in the features of the time series for the (model earthquakes or) overlap of two Cantor sets when one set moves with uniform relative velocity over the other and time series of stock prices. An anticipation method for some of the crashes have been proposed here, based on these observation…

We find prominent similarities in the features of the time series for the overlap of two Cantor sets when one set moves with uniform relative velocity over the other and time series of stock prices. An anticipation method for some of the crashes have been proposed here, based on these observations.

Cohomology fractals illustrate complex 3-manifold properties.