Introduces foundation priors for using model-generated data in empirical research.
problem Using model-generated data as real observations in empirical research.
method Introduces foundation priors as an exponential-tilted, generalized Bayesian update of the user's primitive prior.
result Synthetic data reflects both model patterns and user's priors, enabling principled use in empirical work.
Framework tackles class imbalance and noisy labels in active learning.
problem Class imbalance and noisy labels in real-world datasets.
method Uses foundation model priors to select informative samples for active learning.
result Substantial annotation savings (over 50%) with preserved performance and robustness.
Tabular FMs struggle with reliable uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification in tabular foundation models.
method Compared TabPFN and Gaussian processes (GPs) across various regression tasks.
result GP outperforms TabPFN in data-scarce settings and when kernels are good priors.
Study shows cliff-learning in transfer learning from foundation models.
problem Data-scaling of transfer learning from foundation models in low data regimes.
method Investigation of cliff-learning phenomenon through foundation-model analysis and toy models.
result Cliff-learning reflects compatibility between priors and tasks.
PFNs pre-train models on simulated data to predict class probabilities.
problem Training machine learning models on large datasets.
method Pre-train a fixed model on small simulated datasets and use it to infer class probabilities in-context.
result PFNs achieve state-of-the-art performance and improve with larger inference data.
Generative model learns functional vector fields for pharmacokinetics.
problem Generating accurate virtual cohorts and forecasting patient trajectories without manual tuning.
method Prior-Fitted Functional Flows model, learning functional vector fields conditioned on sparse, irregular data.
result State-of-the-art predictive accuracy on real-world datasets.
BNNpriors library improves Bayesian neural network inference with various prior distributions.
problem Challenges in choosing good prior distributions for Bayesian neural networks.
method State-of-the-art Markov Chain Monte Carlo inference with a wide range of predefined priors.
result Facilitates foundational discoveries on the nature of the cold posterior effect.
Ens-CGP synthesizes ensemble-based inference with Gaussian processes.
problem Ensemble-based inference and Gaussian process modeling.
method Formulates Ens-CGP as a conditional Gaussian process for ensemble moments.
result Ens-CGP provides a unified probabilistic foundation for Kalman-type methods.
Proposes a method to quantify uncertainty in PFNs.
problem Lack of uncertainty quantification in PFNs.
method Martingale posteriors for efficient, tuning-free sampling.
result Proves convergence of proposed sampling procedure.
WebGUM learns web navigation from multimodal data, outperforming previous methods.
problem Limited generalization from domain-specific models in web navigation.
method Instruction-following multimodal agent trained on vision-language foundation models.
result Significant improvement in web navigation performance on benchmarks.
New method extracts biological concepts from cell microscopy images.
problem Extracting meaningful concepts from vision foundation models trained on cell microscopy images.
method Sparse dictionary learning (DL) combined with PCA whitening pre-processing.
result Successfully retrieved biologically meaningful concepts like cell types and genetic perturbations.
LDTA expands LDA's topic modeling capacity with tree-structured priors.
problem Limited expressiveness of Dirichlet priors in LDA for complex topic relationships.
method Introduces Latent Dirichlet-Tree Allocation (LDTA) with Dirichlet-Tree (DT) priors, and develops universal mean-field variational inference and Expectation Propagation.
result LDTA enables expressive, tree-structured priors over topic proportions, expanding modeling capacity of LDA.
AR-Flow VAE improves blind source separation with flexible autoregressive priors.
problem Unsupervised blind source separation of latent signals from mixtures.
method AR-Flow VAE uses autoregressive flows to model latent sources, enhancing flexibility and capturing complex dependencies.
result AR-Flow VAE effectively separates latent sources, demonstrating improved performance over conventional methods.
Temporal Causal Prior-Data Fitted Networks (TCPFN) for industrial time series causal discovery
problem Estimating causal effects in industrial time series
method Temporal Causal Prior-Data Fitted Networks
result Zero-shot causal discovery with explicit reliability signals
New method uses trainable activations to make BNNs behave like GPs.
problem Making Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) behave like Gaussian Processes (GPs).
method Introduced trainable activations and periodic activations to map GP priors to BNNs. Used 2-Wasserstein distance for optimization.
result Method consistently outperforms existing approaches or matches heuristic methods.
Ensemble learning is a statistical paradigm built on the premise that many weak learners can perform exceptionally well when deployed collectively. The BART method of Chipman et al. (2010) is a prominent example of Bayesian ensemble learning, where each learner is a tree. Due to its impressive performance, BART has rec…
While model-based deep reinforcement learning (RL) holds great promise for sample efficiency and generalization, learning an accurate dynamics model is often challenging and requires substantial interaction with the environment. A wide variety of domains have dynamics that share common foundations like the laws of clas…
Prior to the financial crisis mortgage securitization models increased in sophistication as did products built to insure against losses. Layers of complexity formed upon a foundation that could not support it and as the foundation crumbled the housing market followed. That foundation was the Gaussian copula which faile…
Pretrained time-series models outperform train-from-scratch baselines in financial return forecasting.
problem Financial return forecasting
method Pretrained time-series foundation models
result Pretrained TSFMs dominate the ranking distribution, accounting for 8 of 10 task-level wins.
DeepRV accelerates spatiotemporal inference using neural priors.
problem Intractable scaling of Gaussian Processes for large datasets.
method Neural-network surrogate replacing GP prior sampling with O(N2) complexity. result DeepRV achieves highest fidelity to exact GPs while significantly speeding up inference.
Unified framework HASSLE-free decomposes large model weights into sparse and low-rank components.
problem Efficiently compress large foundation models to reduce inference costs.
method Designs a unified framework for sparse plus low-rank matrix decomposition with a local layer-wise reconstruction error objective.
result HASSLE-free framework significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in compression and evaluation benchmarks.
Orion-Bix combines biaxial attention and meta-learning for tabular few-shot learning.
problem Scaling and generalizing tabular models with mixed numeric and categorical fields, weak feature structure, and limited labeled data.
method Orion-Bix uses biaxial attention and meta-learned in-context reasoning to efficiently capture local and global dependencies.
result Orion-Bix outperforms gradient-boosting baselines and state-of-the-art tabular models on public benchmarks.
New algorithm proves convergence for MAP estimation with denoisers.
problem Proving convergence of MAP estimation methods using pretrained denoisers.
method A simple gradient descent algorithm on smoothed proximal objectives.
result Algorithm provably converges to the proximal operator under log-concavity.
We consider fundamental questions of arbitrage pricing arising when the uncertainty model is given by a set of possible mutually singular probability measures. With a single probability model, essential equivalence between the absence of arbitrage and the existence of an equivalent martingale measure is a folk theorem,…
New framework uses dynamics to justify Gaussian process for turbulent flows.
problem Lack of rigorous justification for Gaussian process priors in turbulent flows.
method Introduces a dynamics-informed Gaussian process framework based on quasi-Gaussianity.
result Provides a principled, long-time dynamical justified GP prior for turbulent flows.
Stabilizing black-box algorithms through task-oriented randomization
problem Ensuring stability of black-box models
method Task-oriented randomization
result Established rigorous theoretical foundations and demonstrated effectiveness through simulations and real-world applications
Paper identifies tensor ranks via prior predictive matching, solving system of equations.
problem Determining the latent dimensions (ranks) in tensor factorization models.
method Prior predictive moment matching to transform moment matching conditions into a log-linear system of equations.
result Identifies which tensor models have identifiable ranks and derives rank estimators.
Tabular in-context learners perform well on biomolecular tasks, but performance depends on the representation used.
problem Predicting biomolecular properties from limited labeled data.
method Evaluating tabular in-context learners on protein fitness regression and small-molecule classification tasks.
result Tabular in-context learners are competitive for protein fitness regression but not for small-molecule classification.
We analyze the Hessian spectra of large models up to 100B parameters.
problem Accurate Hessian spectra of large foundation models are difficult to obtain.
method We use shard-local finite-difference Hessian vector products and stochastic Lanczos quadrature.
result We produce the first large-scale spectral density estimates of foundation models.
Bayesian KANs achieve near-minimax posterior contraction rates in anisotropic Besov spaces.
problem Statistical foundation for Bayesian Kolmogorov-Arnold networks in anisotropic Besov spaces.
method Sparse Bayesian KANs with spike-and-slab priors, hyperprior on model size, and approximation complexity bounds.
result Posterior contraction rates depend on intrinsic anisotropic smoothness and effective dimension of the compositional structure.
Hybrid Bayesian neural networks use function uncertainty for probabilistic inference.
problem Uncertainty in neural network weights is hard to specify and interpret.
method Integrates probabilistic layers with standard deterministic layers for function uncertainty.
result Improves probabilistic inference by encoding function uncertainty.
Rewriting theory applied to diagrammatic algebras for categorification.
problem Finding bases in graded gl2-foams. method Algorithmic approach combining linear and higher rewriting, modulo rules capturing categorical properties.
result First proof of a basis theorem for graded gl2-foams. New approach uses neural networks to learn program structure and parameters.
problem Learning programs and their structure efficiently.
method Free category prior over programs, end-to-end learning of structure and parameters.
result Neural networks can serve as primitives in probabilistic programs.
Unified Bayesian framework for efficient off-policy evaluation and learning in large action spaces.
problem Efficient off-policy evaluation and learning in systems with correlated actions.
method Unified Bayesian framework with structured priors and sDM approach.
result sDM leverages action correlations without compromising computational efficiency.
Co-branding improves stock performance for firms.
problem Little research on co-branding's impact on firm stock value.
method Developed a conceptual framework and tested hypotheses.
result Co-branding events lead to positive abnormal returns.
CRUMB: Efficient Prior Fitted Network Inference via Distributionally Matched Context Batching
problem Inference of tabular foundation models with large training datasets
method CRUMB (Clustered Retrieval Using Minimised-MMD Batching)
result CRUMB outperforms state-of-the-art context selection strategies on the TabArena benchmark
New framework tackles deep learning issues like local traps and miscalibration.
problem Local traps and miscalibration in deep neural networks.
method Sparse deep learning framework with prior annealing algorithms.
result Proposed method successfully addresses local traps and miscalibration.
CDFM aims to unify causal discovery across diverse datasets.
problem Fragmented, test-driven causal discovery approaches struggle with modern data heterogeneity.
method CDFM is a unified, general-purpose framework using a variational decomposition of causal mechanisms.
result CDFM outperforms traditional algorithms across diverse datasets.
A permutation-based SW test achieves minimax-optimal power for two-sample testing.
problem Nonparametric two-sample testing using the sliced Wasserstein distance.
method Proposes a permutation-based SW test and analyzes its performance.
result Achieves minimax separation rate n−1/2 over multinomial and bounded-support alternatives. There has been a lot of recent interest in adopting machine learning methods for scientific and engineering applications. This has in large part been inspired by recent successes and advances in the domains of Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Image Classification (IC). However, scientific and engineering problems …
Unified framework simplifies DPO algorithms for LLM alignment.
problem Vast number of DPO variants complicates model alignment.
method Mutual information inspired unifying framework with flexible priors.
result Many DPO variants can be derived from the new framework.
Paper studies how few pretraining tasks are needed for a linear model to solve new tasks.
problem How many pretraining tasks are needed for a linear model to solve new tasks?
method Pretrained a linear attention model for linear regression with a Gaussian prior.
result Effective pretraining requires a small number of independent tasks, and the model closely matches Bayes optimal.
TabPFN-3 scales tabular prediction models to large datasets and improves performance and speed.
problem Scaling tabular prediction models to large datasets with high performance and efficiency.
method Pretrained on synthetic data, introduces test-time compute scaling, and uses row-chunking.
result Significantly outperforms other models on TabArena and diverse datasets.
Review of diffusion models for SBI in non-ideal data scenarios.
problem Inference of parameters from complex simulation outputs with intractable likelihoods.
method Diffusion models for likelihood-free inference, addressing model misspecification, unstructured observations, and missing data.
result Improved robustness and efficiency in SBI methods for non-ideal data scenarios.
Bayesian neural networks achieve optimal posterior contraction rates in Besov spaces with intrinsic dimensionality.
problem High-dimensional structured estimation problems with unknown smoothness levels.
method Sparse Bayesian neural networks with either sparse or continuous shrinkage priors.
result Optimal posterior contraction rates are achieved, adapting to the unknown smoothness level of the true function.
Survey of financial foundation models for diverse applications.
problem Challenges in applying general-purpose FMs to financial tasks.
method Review of financial foundation models (FFMs) in three modalities.
result Emergence of FFMs designed specifically for finance.
Improving in-context learning for latent space Bayesian optimization by adapting pretraining on molecular latent space.
problem Improving in-context learning for latent space Bayesian optimization.
method Adapting pretraining on molecular latent space.
result Achieving strong performance on held-out molecular optimization benchmarks.
Unified framework for planning under uncertainty using variational inference.
problem Planning under uncertainty with separate objectives for exploration and exploitation.
method Variational inference on a generative model augmented with priors.
result EFE-based planning emerges as variational inference, enabling scalable, resource-aware policies.