Study variance-optimal hedging of forward curve derivatives under stochastic volatility.
problem Variance-optimal hedging of forward curve derivatives with stochastic volatility.
method Assumes HJM-Musiela dynamics modulated by stochastic covariance, uses Galtchouk-Kunita-Watanabe projection.
result Density of finite-maturity strategies, convergence of finite-rank projections, decomposition of hedging error.
FP uses random projections to train networks without feedback, achieving comparable performance to backpropagation.
problem Training neural networks without feedback from downstream layers.
method Forward Projection (FP) method that uses randomised nonlinear projections and closed-form regression.
result FP achieves comparable generalisation to backpropagation methods with a single forward pass, offering significant speedup.
We derive a forward equation for arbitrage-free barrier option prices, in terms of Markovian projections of the stochastic volatility process, in continuous semi-martingale models. This provides a Dupire-type formula for the coefficient derived by Brunick and Shreve for their mimicking diffusion and can be interpreted …
A trivial projective change of a Finsler metric F is the Finsler metric F+df. I explain when it is possible to make a given Finsler metric both forward and backward complete by a trivial projective change. The problem actually came from lorentz geometry and mathematical relativity: it was observed that it is poss…
This work presents a methodology for forward electricity contract price projection based on market equilibrium and social welfare optimization. In the methodology supply and demand for forward contracts are produced in such a way that each agent (generator/load/trader) optimizes a risk adjusted expected value of its re…
A new model for forward curves captures behavior through a single equation.
problem Modeling forward curves in a complex function space.
method Developed a stochastic partial differential equation with locally state-dependent coefficients.
result The model retains simplicity while capturing entire forward curve behavior.
This paper reviews SDR methods for multivariate response regression.
problem Handling sufficient dimension reduction for multivariate response regression.
method Characterizes SDR estimators as inverse or forward regression methods.
result Pooled marginal, projective resampling, distance-based, ordinary least squares, partial least squares, and semiparametric SDR estimators are discussed.
Demographic projections of future mortality rates involve a high level of uncertainty and require stochastic mortality models. The current paper investigates forward mortality models driven by a (possibly infinite dimensional) Wiener process and a compensated Poisson random measure. A major innovation of the paper is t…
New findings show score matching's accuracy doesn't ensure numerical stability in diffusion sampling.
problem Numerical stability issues in diffusion sampling despite small forward-marginal error.
method Constructing a smooth score field with arbitrarily small forward-marginal L2 error, showing nonexplosive behavior and moments of every order. result Euler--Maruyama discretizations can converge in probability even when moments diverge, demonstrating failure of weak convergence.
Paper introduces a new method for calibrating ESGs to both historical and forward-looking data.
problem Lack of a generally accepted methodology for calibrating ESGs to forward-looking information.
method Conditional Scenario Simulator framework for consistent calibration of economic and financial variables.
result Framework can embed various financial and macroeconomic models and demonstrate practical examples in frequentist and Bayesian settings.
This work optimizes reservoir computing models by linking recurrence and non-linear dynamics.
problem Understanding how recurrence and non-linear dynamics in cortical networks contribute to their function.
method Transformed time-continuous, recurrent dynamics into an effective feed-forward structure of linear and non-linear temporal kernels.
result Optimal time-series classifiers can be built from random reservoir networks, demonstrating significant performance gains.
We present a method of variable selection for the sparse generalized additive model. The method doesn't assume any specific functional form, and can select from a large number of candidates. It takes the form of incremental forward stagewise regression. Given no functional form is assumed, we devised an approach termed…
Causal deep learning tackles causal inference using tensor factor analysis.
problem Addressing causal questions in data using neural networks.
method Tensor factor analysis and neural network architectures (causal capsules, tensor transformer, multilinear projection algorithm).
result Derives deep neural networks for causal inference with tensor factor analysis.
A new projection method for convex optimization reduces computation costs.
problem Efficiently projecting points into convex sets for deep learning.
method Interpolation-based projection for cheaper computation.
result The proposed method converges for linear and convex constraints.
A dissertation on scalable projection-free optimization methods.
problem Efficient optimization algorithms for large-scale machine learning problems.
method Study of Frank-Wolfe variants and their extensions to distributed and derivative-free settings.
result Development of 1-SFW and QFW, achieving state-of-the-art complexity and efficiency.
FISAR uses neural networks to optimize safe reinforcement learning with forward-invariant constraints.
problem Safe reinforcement learning with constraints in safety-critical environments.
method Imposing linear constraints on policy parameters' updating dynamics, using a DNN-based optimizer to satisfy these constraints.
result The policy decreases constraint violation and maximizes cumulative reward monotonically.
Abundant literature has been published on approximation methods for the forward initial margin. The most popular ones being the family of regression methods. This paper describes the mathematical foundations on which these regression approximation methods lie. We introduce mathematical rigor to show that in essence, al…
Paper converts deep networks to flat, equivalent kernel machines.
problem Capacity control and uniform convergence in deep learning.
method Push-forward transformation from deep networks to indefinite kernel machines.
result Flat network weights are Lp-norm regularized (0<p<1).
We show that if a smooth multiplicative subbundle S⊆TG on a groupoid $G\rr P$ is involutive and satisfies completeness conditions, then its leaf space G/S inherits a groupoid structure over the space of leaves of TP∩S in P. As an application, a special class of Dirac groupoids is shown to project b…
In this paper, we propose a probabilistic parsing model, which defines a proper conditional probability distribution over non-projective dependency trees for a given sentence, using neural representations as inputs. The neural network architecture is based on bi-directional LSTM-CNNs which benefits from both word- and …
Sliced-Wasserstein distance (SW) and its variant, Max Sliced-Wasserstein distance (Max-SW), have been used widely in the recent years due to their fast computation and scalability even when the probability measures lie in a very high dimensional space. However, SW requires many unnecessary projection samples to approxi…
PBN combines generative and discriminative capabilities in a neural network.
problem Combining generative and discriminative capabilities in neural networks.
method Convolutional PBN, sharing FF-NN embodiment, combining generative and discriminative qualities.
result PBN shows excellent qualities from either generative or discriminative viewpoint.
The paper interprets diffusion models as gradient descent and proposes a new sampler.
problem Improving the efficiency and quality of diffusion models.
method Interprets diffusion models as gradient descent and proposes a new sampler.
result The new sampler achieves state-of-the-art FID scores and generates high quality samples.
We construct an analytic multiplicative model of smooth K-theory. We further introduce the notion of a smooth K-orientation of a proper submersion and define the associated push-forward which satisfies functoriality, compatibility with pull-back diagrams, and projection and bordism formulas. We construct a multiplicati…
Gated Linear Units (arXiv:1612.08083) consist of the component-wise product of two linear projections, one of which is first passed through a sigmoid function. Variations on GLU are possible, using different nonlinear (or even linear) functions in place of sigmoid. We test these variants in the feed-forward sublayers o…
Paper improves SVaR estimation for stress testing under macro scenarios using a hybrid GPR-HS framework.
problem Numerical instability in traditional SVaR estimation under extreme shocks.
method Extends GPR-HS framework to forward-looking stress scenarios with SACS for stable covariance.
result Stable SVaR ranges from -2.1020% to -2.2231%, preserving coherence property.
This paper solves Hilbert's fourth problem for constant curvature metrics.
problem Classifying metric geometries with shortest straight lines in constant curvature settings.
method Analyzing Finsler manifolds with constant flag curvature, deriving distance formulas, and proving global geometry theorems.
result Complete characterization of global geometry for constant flag curvature metrics.
We present a machine learning approach to the inversion of Fredholm integrals of the first kind. The approach provides a natural regularization in cases where the inverse of the Fredholm kernel is ill-conditioned. It also provides an efficient and stable treatment of constraints. The key observation is that the stabili…
We propose the Limited Multi-Label (LML) projection layer as a new primitive operation for end-to-end learning systems. The LML layer provides a probabilistic way of modeling multi-label predictions limited to having exactly k labels. We derive efficient forward and backward passes for this layer and show how the layer…
Recently, deep neural networks (DNNs) have shown advantages in accelerating optimization algorithms. One approach is to unfold finite number of iterations of conventional optimization algorithms and to learn parameters in the algorithms. However, these are forward methods and are indeed neither iterative nor convergent…
Derives variance kernel for reaction boundary in financial models.
problem Separating components in financial volatility models.
method Operational-time variance kernel, damped Abel response kernel, closed asymptotic form.
result Operational variance has a closed asymptotic form involving various parameters.
Develops accelerated methods for optimization using low-dimensional projected-gradient information.
problem Optimization with low-dimensional projected-gradient information and Nesterov acceleration.
method Randomized-subspace Nesterov accelerated gradient methods for smooth convex and strongly convex optimization.
result Established accelerated oracle-complexity guarantees and unified basis for comparing sketch families.
New method selects variables for GP regression using sparse projection.
problem Identifying environmental factors affecting metal corrosion.
method Sparse projection of input variables, gradient descent optimization, non-convex marginal likelihood.
result Proposed method outperforms benchmarks in variable selection accuracy.
Derives operational-time variance kernel for reaction boundaries in financial markets.
problem Separating components in volatility models to better understand market dynamics.
method Derives a variance kernel for a latent-order-book reaction boundary, separating structural boundary cumulant, clock projection, and pricing-measure choice.
result Operational variance has a closed asymptotic form for long-memory forcing, with effective signed-forcing intensity and resilience.
A novel method reduces dimensionality for filtering SRNs with observed variables.
problem Challenges in estimating hidden state variables in SRNs with limited observations.
method Filtered Markovian Projection (Filtered MP) for dimensionality reduction in filtering.
result Filtered MP guarantees consistency and superior computational efficiency in high dimensions.
FlowSDR learns a low-dimensional projection preserving the response's conditional distribution.
problem Learning a low-dimensional projection that captures the response's conditional distribution.
method FlowSDR uses conditional log-likelihood maximization with monotone rational-quadratic spline flows to learn the projection and conditional density.
result FlowSDR outperforms existing SDR methods in various simulation settings and a face-age prediction task.
Enhances PCE surrogates using transfer learning for expensive simulations.
problem Over-sampling in PCE for expensive forward models.
method Transfer learning from similar tasks to a new task with limited training data.
result Improves scalability and accuracy of PCE surrogates.
Let M be a compact Riemannian manifold and let μ,d be the associated measure and distance on M. Robert McCann obtained, generalizing results for the Euclidean case by Yann Brenier, the polar factorization of Borel maps S : M -> M pushing forward μ to a measure ν: each S factors uniquely a.e. into the composition …
We examine Deep Canonically Correlated LSTMs as a way to learn nonlinear transformations of variable length sequences and embed them into a correlated, fixed dimensional space. We use LSTMs to transform multi-view time-series data non-linearly while learning temporal relationships within the data. We then perform corre…
Transformers without skip connections collapse token representations to a single direction.
problem Rapid convergence of token representations to a single direction in self-attention-only Transformers.
method Analysis of layer normalization, residual connections, and multi-head attention mechanisms.
result Residual connections prevent rank collapse in real Transformers, while MLPs generate new feature directions.
Local robustness ensures that a model classifies all inputs within an ℓ2-ball consistently, which precludes various forms of adversarial inputs. In this paper, we present a fast procedure for checking local robustness in feed-forward neural networks with piecewise-linear activation functions. Such networks partit…
OLS is a special case of Transformer, revealing its linear nature.
problem Understanding the statistical essence of Transformer architecture.
method Algebraic proof and spectral decomposition of covariance matrix.
result Attention mechanism in Transformers is mathematically equivalent to OLS.
New method reduces gender bias in language models without harming performance.
problem Bias in language models learned from biased data.
method Causal analysis to identify problematic model components, followed by linear projection of weight matrices.
result DAMA significantly decreases bias in language models while maintaining performance.
While the backpropagation of error algorithm enables deep neural network training, it implies (i) bidirectional synaptic weight transport and (ii) update locking until the forward and backward passes are completed. Not only do these constraints preclude biological plausibility, but they also hinder the development of l…
New method for dynamic valuation in markets with random endowments.
problem Dynamic valuation in markets with random endowments.
method Developed new FBSDE systems and established optimality conditions.
result Established necessary and sufficient conditions for optimality.
This paper shows how forward rate interpolations are equivalent to discount factor interpolations in yield curve construction.
problem The challenge of choosing between different interpolation methods for yield curve construction.
method Demonstrates the equivalence between forward rate interpolations and discount factor interpolations.
result Some popular interpolation methods on forward rates are equivalent to classical interpolation methods on discount factors.
Paper explores volatility swaps in rough volatility models.
problem Understanding volatility swaps in rough volatility models.
method Examines the relationship between forward start volatility swaps and implied volatilities in rough volatility models.
result The leading term approximation error in the correlated case does not depend on the time to forward start date.
The study analyzes numerical stability in large language models using mixed-precision arithmetic.
problem Numerical stability of large language models using low-precision arithmetic.
method Developed a mixed-precision analysis of transformer inference, deriving bounds for condition numbers and forward error.
result Established that numerical stability is determined by the interplay between weight magnitude and the growth of the residual stream.