In the LIBOR market model, forward interest rates are log-normal under their respective forward measures. This note shows that their distributions under the other forward measures of the tenor structure have approximately log-normal tails.
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The Long Bond, Long Forward Measure and Long-Term Factorization in Heath-Jarrow-Morton Modelsq-fin.MF
This paper proves existence of the long bond, long forward measure and long-term factorization of the stochastic discount factor (SDF) of Alvarez and Jermann (2005) and Hansen and Scheinkman (2009) in Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) models in the function space framework of Filipovic (2001). A sufficient condition on the wei…
Using elements from the theory of ergodic backward stochastic differential equations (BSDE), we study the behavior of forward entropic risk measures. We provide their general representation results (via both BSDE and convex duality) and examine their behavior for risk positions of long maturities. We show that forward …
This paper explores the nonconvexity of push-forward constraints in machine learning.
problem The nonconvexity of push-forward constraints in machine learning.
method The paper provides sufficient and necessary conditions for the (non)convexity of push-forward functions and maps.
result Push-forward constraints are generally nonconvex, which limits the design of convex optimization problems in machine learning.
FF algorithm uses goodness as a measure of input quality, derived from likelihood-ratio tests.
problem Training each layer locally with a goodness measure.
method FF algorithm uses a likelihood-ratio test to define goodness, which is the sum of squared activations normalized between layers.
result The goodness measure is a sufficient statistic for a likelihood-ratio test, explaining the FF algorithm's performance.
A Common Market Measure for Libor and Pricing Caps, Floors and Swaps in a Field Theory of Forward Interest Ratesphysics.soc-ph
The main result of this paper that a martingale evolution can be chosen for Libor such that all the Libor interest rates have a common market measure; the drift is fixed such that each Libor has the martingale property. Libor is described using a field theory model, and a common measure is seen to be emerge naturally f…
We present turnpike-type results for the risk tolerance function in an incomplete market setting under time-monotone forward performance criteria. We show that, contrary to the classical case, the temporal and spatial limits do not coincide. We also show that they depend directly on the left- and right-end of the suppo…
One of the peculiarities of power and gas markets is the delivery mechanism of forward contracts. The seller of a futures contract commits to deliver, say, power, over a certain period, while the classical forward is a financial agreement settled on a maturity date. Our purpose is to design a Heath-Jarrow-Morton framew…
The paper addresses pricing interest rate derivatives in markets with volatility uncertainty.
problem Pricing interest rate derivatives under uncertainty about volatility.
method Modeling volatility uncertainty with G-Brownian motion and defining forward sublinear expectation.
result Developed robust pricing formulas for interest rate derivatives.
We derive a forward partial integro-differential equation for prices of call options in a model where the dynamics of the underlying asset under the pricing measure is described by a -possibly discontinuous- semimartingale. A uniqueness theorem is given for the solutions of this equation. This result generalizes Dupire…
A unified view of LIBOR modelsq-fin.MF
We provide a unified framework for modeling LIBOR rates using general semimartingales as driving processes and generic functional forms to describe the evolution of the dynamics. We derive sufficient conditions for the model to be arbitrage-free which are easily verifiable, and for the LIBOR rates to be true martingale…
The paper reviews historical and modern approaches to asset pricing probability measures.
problem Constructing or selecting probability measures for asset pricing.
method Historical review of various approaches including state price theory, martingale measures, and modern data-driven methods.
result Modern asset pricing involves constructing, transforming, or selecting probability measures to represent market prices.
New method for dynamic valuation in markets with random endowments.
problem Dynamic valuation in markets with random endowments.
method Developed new FBSDE systems and established optimality conditions.
result Established necessary and sufficient conditions for optimality.
For a sequence of nonnegative random variables, we provide simple necessary and sufficient conditions to ensure that each sequence of its forward convex combinations converges in probability to the same limit. These conditions correspond to an essentially measure-free version of the notion of uniform integrability.
We derive measure change formulae required to price midcurve swaptions in the forward swap annuity measure with stochastic annuities' ratios. We construct the corresponding linear and exponential terminal swap rate pricing models and show how they capture the midcurve swaption correlation skew.
In a market of deterministic cash flows, given as an additive, symmetric relation of exchangeability on the finite signed Borel measures on the non-negative real time axis, it is shown that the only arbitrage-free price functional that fulfills some additional mild requirements is the integral of the unit zero-coupon b…
The paper proves a convergence theorem for Wiener measures on holonomy groups.
problem Understanding convergence of Wiener measures on holonomy groups.
method Using stochastic parallel transports along convergent metric connections.
result Proves a convergence theorem for push-forward Wiener measures on holonomy groups.
MASF improves score-based filters for high-dimensional nonlinear systems with spatially sparse measurements.
problem Challenges in data assimilation for nonlinear, high-dimensional systems with spatially sparse measurements.
method Developed a forward process tailored for filtering that transforms the system state toward the measurement space, enabling a theoretically sound formulation of the likelihood score.
result MASF shows improved performance over existing score-based filters and ensemble-type Kalman filters, achieving up to a 28.2× wall-clock speedup.
Study inverse problems with measure samples, improving estimator calibration and recovery.
problem Inverse problems with unknown potentials observed through measure samples.
method Introduced convex empirical objectives and sharpened Fenchel--Young losses for finite-dimensional potential classes.
result High-probability parameter recovery bounds for inverse entropic unbalanced optimal transport and inverse JKO learning.
Demographic projections of future mortality rates involve a high level of uncertainty and require stochastic mortality models. The current paper investigates forward mortality models driven by a (possibly infinite dimensional) Wiener process and a compensated Poisson random measure. A major innovation of the paper is t…
This research examines the geometry of latent spaces in push-forward generative models.
problem Tendency of deep generative models to output samples outside target distribution support.
method Geometric measure theory and truncation method to enforce simplicial cluster structure.
result Proves sufficient condition for optimality in latent space geometry.
Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is the most common nonparametric method for estimating the volatility structure of Gaussian interest rate models. One major difficulty in the estimation of these models is the fact that forward rate curves are not directly observable from the market so that non-trivial observational e…
We study sampling as optimization in the space of measures. We focus on gradient flow-based optimization with the Langevin dynamics as a case study. We investigate the source of the bias of the unadjusted Langevin algorithm (ULA) in discrete time, and consider how to remove or reduce the bias. We point out the difficul…
This work provides a semi-analytic approximation method for decoupled forwardbackward SDEs (FBSDEs) with jumps. In particular, we construct an asymptotic expansion method for FBSDEs driven by the random Poisson measures with σ-finite compensators as well as the standard Brownian motions around the small-variance limit …
The problem of completeness of the forward rate based bond market model driven by a Lévy process under the physical measure is examined. The incompleteness of market in the case when the Lévy measure has a density function is shown. The required elements of the theory of stochastic integration over the compensated jump…
Given a measured lamination on a finite area hyperbolic surface we consider a natural measure Mon the real line obtained by taking the push-forward of the volume measure of the unit tangent bundle of the surface under an intersection function associated with the lamination. We show that the measure M gives summation id…
Framework uses diffusion models to infer material properties from noisy mechanical measurements.
problem Inference of spatially varying material properties from noisy mechanical responses.
method Conditional score-based diffusion models approximating the score function of a conditional distribution.
result Framework can efficiently solve large-scale physics-based inverse problems.
FF algorithm uses goodness as a likelihood-ratio test for scalar normalization.
problem Training each layer locally with scalar goodness.
method FF algorithm uses a likelihood-ratio test with squared goodness as the sufficient statistic.
result The FF algorithm generalizes to anisotropic and heavy-tailed populations.
The paper analyzes performance criteria for competing fund managers in Ito-diffusion markets.
problem Analyzing performance of competing fund managers in Ito-diffusion markets.
method Developed forward relative performance criteria and forward Nash equilibrium for passive and competitive cases.
result Extended performance criteria for investment problems in Ito-diffusion markets.
DDEQs extend DEQs to discrete measure inputs using Wasserstein gradient flows.
problem Applying DEQs to discrete measure inputs like sets or point clouds.
method Wasserstein gradient flows for finding fixed points of discrete measures under permutation-invariance.
result DDEQs can compete with state-of-the-art models in tasks like point cloud classification and completion.
The paper proves inequalities on Finsler manifolds under Ricci curvature bounds.
problem Proving -Sobolev and Nash inequalities on Finsler metric measure manifolds.
method Global -Poincaré inequality, -Sobolev inequality, Nash inequality derivation.
result Established global optimal -Sobolev inequality with a sharp constant.
This paper introduces forward-looking measures of the network connectedness of fears in the financial system, arising due to the good and bad beliefs of market participants about uncertainty that spreads unequally across a network of banks. We argue that this asymmetric network structure extracted from call and put tra…
Forward Rank-Dependent Performance Criteria: Time-Consistent Investment Under Probability Distortionq-fin.MF
We introduce the concept of forward rank-dependent performance processes, extending the original notion to forward criteria that incorporate probability distortions. A fundamental challenge is how to reconcile the time-consistent nature of forward performance criteria with the time-inconsistency stemming from probabili…
We study the heat equation on time-dependent metric measure spaces (as well as the dual and the adjoint heat equation) and prove existence, uniqueness and regularity. Of particular interest are properties which characterize the underlying space as a super Ricci flow as previously introduced by the second author. Our ma…
Study shows how to detect representation extendability using conformal measures.
problem Detecting extendability of representations using conformal measures.
method Using higher rank conformal measures and self-joinings of groups.
result Affirmative answer to detect extendability of representations.
Generative model uses DDPMs for risk-neutral derivative pricing.
problem Derivative pricing using arbitrage-free models.
method Developed a framework using DDPMs to generate risk-neutral asset price dynamics.
result Empirically validated the method for both European and path-dependent derivatives.
In many tasks, in particular in natural science, the goal is to determine hidden system parameters from a set of measurements. Often, the forward process from parameter- to measurement-space is a well-defined function, whereas the inverse problem is ambiguous: one measurement may map to multiple different sets of param…
New algorithm for aggregate inference in HMMs with continuous observations.
problem Inference in large populations with indistinguishable individuals and continuous measurements.
method Continuous observation collective forward-backward algorithm extending existing discrete case algorithm.
result Efficacy demonstrated through numerical experiments.
The paper solves investment problems with uncertain factors using game theory.
problem Optimal forward investment in an incomplete market with model uncertainty.
method Combining stochastic differential games and ergodic BSDE approach.
result Representation of robust forward performance processes in factor form.
Mondino and Naber recently proved that finite dimensional spaces are rectifiable. Here we show that the push-forward of the reference measure under the charts built by them is absolutely continuous with respect to the Lebesgue measure. This result, read in conjunction with another recent work of us, has relev…
The paper provides precise estimates for isoperimetric inequalities on weighted manifolds.
problem Quantitative isoperimetric inequalities on weighted Riemannian manifolds.
method Analyzes , , and estimates for the push-forward of measures.
result Close approximation of the guiding function's push-forward to Gaussian measure.
Finite-Sample Bounds for Adaptive Inverse Reinforcement Learning using Passive Langevin Dynamicscs.LG
Paper analyzes PSGLD for adaptive IRL with finite-sample bounds.
problem Estimating cost function of a forward learner using noisy gradients.
method Passive stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (PSGLD) algorithm.
result Explicit bounds on 2-Wasserstein distance between PSGLD sample measure and stationary measure.
Complex problems may require sophisticated, non-linear learning methods such as kernel machines or deep neural networks to achieve state of the art prediction accuracies. However, high prediction accuracies are not the only objective to consider when solving problems using machine learning. Instead, particular scientif…
Blade uses diffusion priors to accurately and calibratedly infer complex systems.
problem Derivative-free Bayesian inversion for high-dimensional, nonlinear problems with costly forward models.
method Blade employs an ensemble of interacting particles and diffusion models as priors, querying forward models only through evaluations.
result Blade produces well-calibrated posterior samples that existing methods cannot, improving with more iterations and particles.
The purpose of this paper is to study the action of the mapping class group on the moduli space of representations of the fundamental group of a non-orientable surface into SU(2). The action is shown to be ergodic with respect to a natural measure. This measure is defined using the push-forward measure associated to a …
Using optimal transport we study some dynamical properties of expanding circle maps acting on measures by push-forward. Using the definition of the tangent space to the space of measures introduced by Gigli, their derivative at the unique absolutely continuous invariant measure is computed. In particular it is shown th…
Unified approach to denoising Markov models for efficient sampling.
problem Designing efficient sampling algorithms for complex distributions.
method Mathematical foundation using measure transport and nonequilibrium statistical mechanics.
result Unified variational objective and backward generator construction.
In electricity markets, it is sensible to use a two-factor model with mean reversion for spot prices. One of the factors is an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process driven by a Brownian motion and accounts for the small variations. The other factor is an OU process driven by a pure jump Lévy process and models the characteri…