A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New method for interpreting non-linear models using forward marginal effects.
fmeffects package interprets non-linear models in plain language.
Explaining the unreasonable effectiveness of deep learning has eluded researchers around the globe. Various authors have described multiple metrics to evaluate the capacity of deep architectures. In this paper, we allude to the radius margin bounds described for a support vector machine (SVM) with hinge loss, apply the…
In this paper, we introduce a new form of amortized variational inference by using the forward KL divergence in a joint-contrastive variational loss. The resulting forward amortized variational inference is a likelihood-free method as its gradient can be sampled without bias and without requiring any evaluation of eith…
New findings show score matching's accuracy doesn't ensure numerical stability in diffusion sampling.
Neural Flow Diffusion Models improve diffusion models by learning flexible forward processes.
Boosting methods are highly popular and effective supervised learning methods which combine weak learners into a single accurate model with good statistical performance. In this paper, we analyze two well-known boosting methods, AdaBoost and Incremental Forward Stagewise Regression (FS), by establishing t…
In this article we consider the problem of giving a robust, model-independent, lower bound on the price of a forward starting straddle with payoff where . Rather than assuming a model for the underlying forward price , we assume that call prices for maturities $T_0<T_1…
It is commonly accepted that Commodities futures and forward prices, in principle, agree under some simplifying assumptions. One of the most relevant assumptions is the absence of counterparty risk. Indeed, due to margining, futures have practically no counterparty risk. Forwards, instead, may bear the full risk of def…
Abundant literature has been published on approximation methods for the forward initial margin. The most popular ones being the family of regression methods. This paper describes the mathematical foundations on which these regression approximation methods lie. We introduce mathematical rigor to show that in essence, al…
This paper reviews SDR methods for multivariate response regression.
New method for efficient conditional sampling from diffusion models.
New neural network approach for optimizing latent variable models.
New DP algorithms with margin guarantees for various hypothesis sets.
The popular Lasso approach for sparse estimation can be derived via marginalization of a joint density associated with a particular stochastic model. A different marginalization of the same probabilistic model leads to a different non-convex estimator where hyperparameters are optimized. Extending these arguments to pr…
Established PFPPs in complete markets, solving integral equations.
The paper proposes effective margin regularization to improve adversarial robustness in deep neural networks.
We introduce a new class of forward performance processes that are endogenous and predictable with regards to an underlying market information set and, furthermore, are updated at discrete times. We analyze in detail a binomial model whose parameters are random and updated dynamically as the market evolves. We show tha…
We study a variant of the martingale optimal transport problem in a multi-period setting to derive robust price bounds of a financial derivative. On top of marginal and martingale constraints, we introduce a time-homogeneity assumption, which restricts the variability of the forward-looking transitions of the martingal…
Beta diffusion generates bounded data using multiplicative transitions.
We introduce the concept of forward rank-dependent performance processes, extending the original notion to forward criteria that incorporate probability distortions. A fundamental challenge is how to reconcile the time-consistent nature of forward performance criteria with the time-inconsistency stemming from probabili…
This paper identifies and bounds ICE central moments using PO marginal central moments.
New method infers hidden states in continuous-time phenomena better than traditional models.
Improved Gaussian process regression with tighter log marginal likelihood bounds.
We develop an HMC algorithm to easily marginalize random effects in LMMs.
Deep neural network (DNN) regression models are widely used in applications requiring state-of-the-art predictive accuracy. However, until recently there has been little work on accurate uncertainty quantification for predictions from such models. We add to this literature by outlining an approach to constructing predi…
We explore the robust replication of forward-start straddles given quoted (Call and Put options) market data. One approach to this problem classically follows semi-infinite linear programming arguments, and we propose a discretisation scheme to reduce its dimensionality and hence its complexity. Alternatively, one can …
Proposes a tabular transformer model to maintain feature effect intelligibility.
In the absence of prior knowledge, ordinal embedding methods obtain new representation for items in a low-dimensional Euclidean space via a set of quadruple-wise comparisons. These ordinal comparisons often come from human annotators, and sufficient comparisons induce the success of classical approaches. However, colle…
FLDD improves discrete diffusion models by learning a non-Markovian noising process.
Kernel methods have revolutionized the fields of pattern recognition and machine learning. Their success, however, critically depends on the choice of kernel parameters. Using Gaussian process (GP) classification as a working example, this paper focuses on Bayesian inference of covariance (kernel) parameters using Mark…
The paper optimizes asset selection for index trackers and enhanced trackers with varying cardinality constraints.
Portfolio optimisation typically aims to provide an optimal allocation that minimises risk, at a given return target, by diversifying over different investments. However, the potential scope of such risk diversification can be limited if investments are concentrated in only one country, or more specifically one currenc…
This paper proposes to model asset price dynamics with a mixture of diffusion processes where the instantaneous volatility of the underlying diffusion process contains a random vector. The marginal probability distributions of the proposed process can match exactly the risk-neutral distributions implied by both spot va…
Shallow water environments create a challenging channel for communications. In this paper, we focus on the challenges posed by the frequency-selective signal distortion called the Doppler effect. We explore the design and performance of machine learning (ML) based demodulation methods --- (1) Deep Belief Network-feed f…
MACQ method explains deep learning models by analyzing feature contributions across prediction levels.
We present a stochastic-local volatility model for derivative contracts on commodity futures able to describe forward-curve and smile dynamics with a fast calibration to liquid market quotes. A parsimonious parametrization is introduced to deal with the limited number of options quoted in the market. Cleared commodity …
New method bounds causal effects using local consistency of marginals.
We describe a model for evolving commodity forward prices that incorporates three important dynamics which appear in many commodity markets: mean reversion in spot prices and the resulting Samuelson effect on volatility term structure, decorrelation of moves in different points on the forward curve, and implied volatil…
Recent research has used margin theory to analyze the generalization performance for deep neural networks (DNNs). The existed results are almost based on the spectrally-normalized minimum margin. However, optimizing the minimum margin ignores a mass of information about the entire margin distribution, which is crucial …
While sparse coding-based clustering methods have shown to be successful, their bottlenecks in both efficiency and scalability limit the practical usage. In recent years, deep learning has been proved to be a highly effective, efficient and scalable feature learning tool. In this paper, we propose to emulate the sparse…
Physics-informed deep learning for PDEs solves forward and inverse problems efficiently.
Frugal Flows learn complex data and infer marginal causal effects.
Neural models improve GLMMs for complex data.
Extends SABR model for pricing RFR caplets.
Machine learning predicts CO2 emissions in power grids, reducing uncertainty.
Demographic projections of future mortality rates involve a high level of uncertainty and require stochastic mortality models. The current paper investigates forward mortality models driven by a (possibly infinite dimensional) Wiener process and a compensated Poisson random measure. A major innovation of the paper is t…
Reverse annealing boosts quantum matrix factorization performance.