Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is the most common nonparametric method for estimating the volatility structure of Gaussian interest rate models. One major difficulty in the estimation of these models is the fact that forward rate curves are not directly observable from the market so that non-trivial observational e…
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48 results for “forward analysis”
SGD converges with perturbed forward-backward passes, explained by geometric amplification.
problem Analyzing convergence of SGD with perturbed forward-backward passes in composite optimization.
method Characterized propagation and amplification of perturbations, derived convergence guarantees for non-convex and PL objectives.
result Perturbations cascade through the computational graph, affecting convergence order under specific conditions.
The paper analyzes investment and consumption strategies under uncertain market conditions.
problem Investment and consumption under drift and volatility uncertainties.
method Randomization approach to construct robust preferences and strategies.
result Developed optimal and robust investment and consumption strategies remain valid in the physical market.
Investigates optimal pension policies in PAYG systems with forward utility and ageing population.
problem Optimal investment and pension policies in PAYG systems with sustainability and adequacy constraints.
method Non-zero volatility forward CRRA utilities, closed-form optimal policies, detailed numerical analysis.
result Characterization of optimal policies and detailed impact analysis under various scenarios.
Improved fast rates for decision making with forward-KL regularization in contextual bandits.
problem Improving fast rates for decision making with forward-KL regularization in contextual bandits.
method Streamlined analysis of forward-KL-regularized offline CBs, exploiting the pessimism principle and convex-analytical pipeline.
result First upper bounds in tabular and general function approximation settings.
Solves wealth maximization problem using variational analysis.
problem Maximizing expected utility of terminal wealth.
method Variational analysis, forward-backward stochastic differential equation (FBSDE).
result Characterization and solutions for various utility functions.
Forward regression is a statistical model selection and estimation procedure which inductively selects covariates that add predictive power into a working statistical regression model. Once a model is selected, unknown regression parameters are estimated by least squares. This paper analyzes forward regression in high-…
TOLD++ improves convergence of diffusion models by critically damping the forward transition matrix.
problem Improving the convergence of Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models.
method Critically damping the Third-Order Langevin Dynamics (TOLD) forward transition matrix using eigen-analysis.
result TOLD++ converges faster than TOLD, verified on toy and real datasets.
In this paper we investigate the asymptotics of forward-start options and the forward implied volatility smile in the Heston model as the maturity approaches zero. We prove that the forward smile for out-of-the-money options explodes and compute a closed-form high-order expansion detailing the rate of the explosion. Fu…
We consider the problem of optimal portfolio selection under forward investment performance criteria in an incomplete market. The dynamics of the prices of the traded assets depend on a pair of stochastic factors, namely, a slow factor (e.g. a macroeconomic indicator) and a fast factor (e.g. stochastic volatility). We …
The Singular Asymptotics Lemma by Brüning and Seeley and the Push-Forward Theorem by Melrose lie at the very heart of their respective approaches to singular analysis. We review both and show that they deal with the same basic problem, giving solutions that emphasize different aspects of it. This also points to a possi…
We study the forward price dynamics in commodity markets realized as a process with values in a Hilbert space of absolutely continuous functions defined by Filipović. The forward dynamics are defined as the mild solution of a certain stochastic partial differential equation driven by an infinite dimensional Lévy proces…
Kernel learning FBSDE filter improves nonlinear filtering efficiency.
problem Nonlinear filtering problem in high-dimensional systems.
method Iterative and adaptive meshfree approach using forward backward SDE and KDE.
result Rigorous convergence analysis provided, supporting empirical results.
The paper analyzes performance criteria for competing fund managers in Ito-diffusion markets.
problem Analyzing performance of competing fund managers in Ito-diffusion markets.
method Developed forward relative performance criteria and forward Nash equilibrium for passive and competitive cases.
result Extended performance criteria for investment problems in Ito-diffusion markets.
We provide a full characterisation of the large-maturity forward implied volatility smile in the Heston model. Although the leading decay is provided by a fairly classical large deviations behaviour, the algebraic expansion providing the higher-order terms highly depends on the parameters, and different powers of the m…
Distributional Associations vs In-Context Reasoning: A Study of Feed-forward and Attention Layerscs.LG
The study compares feed-forward and attention layers in language models.
problem Understanding the role of feed-forward and attention layers in language models.
method Empirical and theoretical analysis in a synthetic setting.
result Feed-forward layers learn simple distributional associations, while attention layers focus on in-context reasoning.
This note justifies approximations of arithmetic forwards using weighted averages of overnight forwards.
problem Theoretical justification for approximations of arithmetic forwards.
method Presentation of a central equation and computationally cheaper methods to approximate .
result Theoretical bounds and closed-form expressions for arithmetic factors in Gaussian HJM models.
The article constructs a forward utility for markets with multiple default risks.
problem Characterizing forward performance processes in a market with multiple default risks.
method Using Jacod-Pham decomposition and recursive BSDEs, the article constructs a forward utility and proves its existence and uniqueness.
result The article identifies the risk-sensitive long-run growth rate of the optimal wealth process in a stochastic factor model with ergodic dynamics.
New framework improves classification accuracy using Pillai's trace and ULDA.
problem Traditional LDA's limitations in noise sensitivity and non-invertible matrices.
method Integrates Pillai's trace with ULDA for a unified classifier.
result Effective control of Type I error rates and improved classification accuracy.
RML improves generative modeling of complex distributions.
problem Learning complex distributions in applications.
method RML defines a forward process to a known distribution, then learns a reverse Markov process.
result RML efficiently captures complex distributions in simulations and climate data.
This paper optimizes autonomous vehicle controllers using data-driven methods.
problem Designing robust controllers for autonomous vehicles that handle external and internal disturbances.
method Data-driven approach using principal component analysis and time delay neural networks.
result Improved controller performance through a feed-forward compensator.
Causal Deep Learningcs.LG
Causal deep learning tackles causal inference using tensor factor analysis.
problem Addressing causal questions in data using neural networks.
method Tensor factor analysis and neural network architectures (causal capsules, tensor transformer, multilinear projection algorithm).
result Derives deep neural networks for causal inference with tensor factor analysis.
Proposes a new CG interpretation of neural networks for better theoretical analysis.
problem Lack of theoretical analysis in neural networks interpretation.
method Interprets neural networks as chain graphs and feed-forward as approximate inference.
result Provides novel theoretical support and insights for various neural network techniques.
This work optimizes reservoir computing models by linking recurrence and non-linear dynamics.
problem Understanding how recurrence and non-linear dynamics in cortical networks contribute to their function.
method Transformed time-continuous, recurrent dynamics into an effective feed-forward structure of linear and non-linear temporal kernels.
result Optimal time-series classifiers can be built from random reservoir networks, demonstrating significant performance gains.
Study fits BTC future returns from inverse options using logistic distribution.
problem Modeling future price distribution of Bitcoin.
method Fits empirical BTC future returns with logistic distribution using inverse options prices.
result BTC future returns can be described with a logistic distribution, but not stochastically.
Paper proposes an efficient AL-GP method for CDF/CCDF estimation in UQ.
problem Estimating full probability distribution in forward UQ analysis.
method Active learning-based Gaussian process (AL-GP) metamodelling method.
result Efficient estimation of CDF/CCDF without explicit discretization.
Bayesian method corrects for model selection multiplicity in regression.
problem Model selection multiplicity in regression analysis.
method Developed a Bayesian prior distribution based on Holm procedure analogy.
result Adequate multiplicity correction requires sparsity not provided by recommended priors.
This paper considers the stability of online learning algorithms and its implications for learnability (bounded regret). We introduce a novel quantity called {\em forward regret} that intuitively measures how good an online learning algorithm is if it is allowed a one-step look-ahead into the future. We show that given…
Study on randomized algorithms for optimal stopping problems.
problem Optimal stopping problems in randomized algorithms.
method Forward and backward Monte Carlo based optimisation algorithms.
result Proved convergence of the proposed algorithms and derived convergence rates.
FBSJNN solves PIDEs and FBSDEJs with deep learning, offering theoretical and numerical efficiency.
problem Solving Partial Integro-Differential Equations and Forward-Backward Stochastic Differential Equations with Jumps.
method FBSJNN framework using a single neural network for both solution approximation and non-local integral.
result FBSJNN achieves numerical solutions with a relative error of , demonstrating efficiency.
The paper proposes a method to compute higher infinitesimals in numerical and symbolic analysis.
problem Computing higher-order derivatives with higher infinitesimals.
method Automatic differentiation in terms of C-infinity rings and Weil algebras.
result A unifying theoretical framework for multivariate higher-order derivatives.
Optimal insurance and investment strategy under exponential preferences in a correlated market model.
problem Optimal investment and reinsurance strategy for an insurance company under exponential preferences.
method Stochastic control techniques to construct a forward dynamic exponential utility and characterize the optimal strategy.
result Characterization of the optimal investment and reinsurance strategy in a correlated market model.
Study refines trend-following strategy to improve adaptability.
problem Challenges in practical implementation of historical trend-following strategies.
method Modifications to historical strategy, including T-bills exclusion, alternative allocations, industry exclusions, momentum signals, and Walk-Forward Analysis.
result Persistent challenges in adapting historical strategies to modern markets.
Neural networks with bounded weights converge to unique fixed points.
problem Convergence and fixed points of neural networks with bounded weights.
method Analysis of iterative neural networks in Hilbert spaces with a single mild condition on weights.
result Guaranteed convergence to a unique fixed point with a bound on its norm.
Blade uses diffusion priors to accurately and calibratedly infer complex systems.
problem Derivative-free Bayesian inversion for high-dimensional, nonlinear problems with costly forward models.
method Blade employs an ensemble of interacting particles and diffusion models as priors, querying forward models only through evaluations.
result Blade produces well-calibrated posterior samples that existing methods cannot, improving with more iterations and particles.
Study shows Skorokhod insider outperforms forward insider in logarithmic utility maximization.
problem Maximizing logarithmic utility for an insider with different anticipating techniques.
method Comparison of Russo-Vallois forward and Skorokhod integrals.
result Skorokhod insider outperforms forward insider in logarithmic utility maximization.
Classifies shapes of yield curves in the Svensson family.
problem Classifying shapes of yield curves in the Svensson family.
method Complete classification of shapes using mathematical analysis.
result Certain complex shapes cannot appear after a deterministic time horizon.
This paper improves SGMs by using a predictor-corrector scheme to converge faster.
problem Theoretical and practical limitations of existing SGMs when .
method Integrates a predictor-corrector scheme after the forward process to converge in finite time.
result Convergence guarantees for SGMs require only a fixed finite time .
Convergence Analysis of Real-time Recurrent Learning (RTRL) for a class of Recurrent Neural Networkscs.LG
RTRL optimizes long sequences without truncation, converging to loss minima.
problem Inaccuracies in TBPTT for long sequences.
method Online optimization with exact gradient calculation.
result RTRL converges to loss minima for a class of RNNs.
In the paper, we propose a new calculation scheme for American options in the framework of a forward backward stochastic differential equation (FBSDE). The well-known decomposition of an American option price with that of a European option of the same maturity and the remaining early exercise premium can be cast into t…
Unified analysis for deterministic samplers in diffusion models.
problem Challenges in analyzing deterministic samplers for diffusion models.
method Unified convergence analysis framework.
result Achieved polynomial iteration complexity for DDIM-type samplers.
Finite-Sample Bounds for Adaptive Inverse Reinforcement Learning using Passive Langevin Dynamicscs.LG
Paper analyzes PSGLD for adaptive IRL with finite-sample bounds.
problem Estimating cost function of a forward learner using noisy gradients.
method Passive stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (PSGLD) algorithm.
result Explicit bounds on 2-Wasserstein distance between PSGLD sample measure and stationary measure.
The puzzle that just isn'tecon.GN
In his stimulating article on the reasons for two puzzling observations about the behaviour of interest rates, exchange rates and the rate of inflation, Charles Engel (2016) puts forward an explanation that rests on the concept of a non-pecuniary liquidity return on assets. Albeit intriguing the analysis struggles to a…
Restoration-Degradation Beyond Linear Diffusions: A Non-Asymptotic Analysis For DDIM-Type Samplerscs.LG
Develops new bounds for deterministic samplers in diffusion models.
problem Analyzing deterministic samplers in diffusion generative models.
method Operational interpretation of deterministic sampling; restoration and degradation steps.
result First polynomial convergence bounds for DDIM-type samplers.
This study optimizes trading strategy parameters using walk-forward techniques and finds robust performance.
problem Optimizing trading strategy performance through parameter optimization.
method Walk-forward optimization with varying window lengths, tested on Bitcoin, Binance Coin, and Ethereum.
result The strategy outperforms Buy-and-Hold with lower drawdown and higher Information Ratio.
Develops a model for cryptocurrency interest rates.
problem Modeling interest rates for cryptocurrencies.
method Term structure model with zero short rate, price processes of crypto bonds, and expressions for forward rates.
result Model can be calibrated to market data and uses strict local martingales for pricing kernels.
Revisiting Extragradient-Type Methods -- Part 1: Generalizations and Sublinear Convergence Ratesmath.OC
Paper generalizes extragradient methods for solving equations and inclusions with improved convergence rates.
problem Solving equations and inclusions using extragradient methods.
method Unified and generalized extragradient methods for a broader class of algorithms, analyzing sublinear convergence rates.
result Unified and improved convergence results for various extragradient variants.
Geometric AD framework simplifies derivative computation in JAX.
problem Efficient and accurate automatic differentiation.
method Jet functors and Weil algebras for geometric analysis.
result Unified view of derivative propagation with algebraic exactness.