New method for calculating forex options using LRM for Lévy models.
problem Calculating local risk minimization for forex options in Lévy models.
method Transformed representation of LRM into fast Fourier transform form.
result Validated the method on Merton jump-diffusion and variance gamma models.
Study shows how oil and forex markets are connected, with monetary policy affecting forex volatility.
problem Understanding connectedness between oil and forex markets.
method High-frequency intra-day data, variance decompositions, realized semivariances.
result Adding oil to a forex portfolio decreases total connectedness, but asymmetries and frequency connectedness are relatively small.
Study compares LSTM and ANN architectures for forex prediction, finding ANN more efficient.
problem Forex time series prediction efficiency and resource usage.
method Comparison of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and specialized ANN architectures.
result Specialized ANN architecture performs better with fewer resources and faster execution.
Study shows how bad and good volatility spread differently in forex markets.
problem Understanding how volatility spreads asymmetrically in forex markets.
method High-frequency, intra-day data of major currencies from 2007-2015.
result Negative spillovers are linked to sovereign debt crisis, positive to subprime and monetary policies.
Wavelet denoised-ResNet with LightGBM predicts Forex rate of change.
problem Forecasting Foreign Exchange (Forex) rate of change for trading opportunities.
method Wavelet denoising, ResNet, LightGBM, technical indicators, image features.
result The model outperforms baseline models with low MAE, MSE, and RMSE.
We derived similar to Bo et al. (2010) results but in the case when the dynamics of the FX rate is driven by a general Merton jump-diffusion process. The main results of our paper are as follows: 1) formulas for the Esscher transform parameters which ensure that the martingale condition for the discounted foreign excha…
Developed Forex trading heuristics with high profit potential.
problem Reduced trade opportunities due to technical indicator values.
method Machine learning simulation of 10 years of Forex data.
result Optimized trade parameters for 118 pips daily profit.
The paper examines how randomness in forex returns increases during financial crises.
problem Measuring randomness in forex returns during financial crises.
method Approximate Entropy and Sample Entropy statistics.
result Randomness in forex returns decreases during financial crises, as evidenced by lower entropy values.
A novel approach combines feature importance scores with deep learning for forex price prediction.
problem Improving forex price prediction using deep learning models.
method Feature importance recap combined with stacking models.
result Proper feature selection significantly improves model performance.
Sentiment analysis from news and social media predicts forex market movements.
problem Forecasting forex market movements using sentiment analysis.
method Lexicon-based analysis and Naive Bayes machine learning.
result Sentiment analysis is effective in predicting forex market movements.
Deep learning predicts currency volatility accurately.
problem Predicting future volatility in Forex trading.
method Constructed a deep-learning network using multiscale LSTM with multi-currency pairs.
result Multiscale LSTM model outperforms conventional models.
Cryptocurrency market decouples from Forex, showing multifractality.
problem Decoupling of crypto market from Forex.
method High-frequency recordings and multiscale cross-correlations.
result Cryptocurrency market shows multifractality, decoupling from Forex.
Event-driven features improve forex price prediction accuracy.
problem Inaccurate predictions in forex due to market volatility.
method Developed event-driven features and used LSTM, BiLSTM, GRU models.
result Improved prediction system with minimal risk.
Survey of deep learning methods for forex and stock price prediction.
problem Improving accuracy and return in financial prediction.
method Classification of papers based on different deep learning methods.
result Recent models combining LSTM with other methods yield great returns and performances.
Comparative study of neural networks for short-term FOREX forecasting.
problem Simulating expert judgment in foreign exchange market forecasting.
method Implemented and compared LSTM and ANN architectures for short-term FOREX forecasting.
result ANN custom architecture outperforms LSTM in prediction quality and resource efficiency.
Convolutional Neural Networks predict forex trends from charts.
problem Predicting forex trends from trading charts.
method Pre-process data, train CNN, evaluate model performance.
result Trades strategies can be automatically generated.
Study uses multifractal detrended cross-correlation to detect Forex arbitrage opportunities.
problem Detecting arbitrage opportunities in Forex markets.
method Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis applied to Forex time series.
result Strong cross-correlations found between exchange rates involved in triangular relations, including AUD and NZD.
New method detects currency contagion sources using causal inference.
problem Lack of causal interpretation in quantifying contagion among currencies.
method Network-based causal inference to identify contagion paths.
result Identifies sources of contagion and diversification options.
We decompose the exchange rates returns of 41 currencies (incl. gold) into their sign and amplitude components. Then we group together all exchange rates with a common base currency, construct Minimal Spanning Trees for each group independently, and analyze properties of these trees. We show that both the sign and the …
The study reveals the hierarchical structure of the international FOREX market using currency fluctuation distribution similarities.
problem Understanding the hierarchical structure of the international FOREX market.
method Using Jensen-Shannon divergence to quantify the similarity between normalized logarithmic return distributions of currencies.
result Clusters of currencies are consistent with the nature of underlying economies but diverge during crises.
Paper presents a modular RL framework for Forex trading, addressing limitations of prior studies.
problem Challenges in applying RL to Forex trading, including unrealistic environments, simplified rewards, and restricted action spaces.
method Integrates three components: a friction-aware execution engine, a decomposable reward architecture, and a discrete action interface.
result Empirical evaluation shows strong non-monotonic reward interactions and optimal Sharpe ratio with the full reward configuration.
New approach uses string model for robust financial market forecasting.
problem Inadequate performance of econometric models in financial forex markets.
method Utilizes projections of real exchange rate dynamics onto string-like topology.
result Stable prediction models for robust portfolio selection.
This paper optimizes multi-currency AMMs to reduce forex trading costs.
problem Lack of direct liquid markets for currency pairs.
method Constant-mean AMM architecture, hierarchical agglomerative clustering algorithm.
result Optimized multi-currency pools reduce trading costs by ~13%.
Study compares RNN, LSTM, and BP neural networks for forex rate prediction.
problem Improving real-time forex rate prediction accuracy.
method Analyzes RNN, LSTM, and BP neural networks' characteristics and advantages.
result Provides insights for selecting the best price-prediction model.
Paper proposes a deep reinforcement learning model for forex trading that considers transaction costs.
problem Trading in forex markets with high transaction costs and non-stationary data.
method Deep reinforcement learning model considering transaction costs and online learning.
result Maximizes profit while keeping transaction costs low in non-stationary markets.
Study improves forex forecasting accuracy using machine learning models.
problem Improving accuracy in predicting foreign exchange rates.
method Employed LSTM neural networks and Gradient Boosting Classifier for forecasting.
result Achieved 99.449% accuracy in forecasting USD/BDT exchange rates.
GA-MSSR optimizes forex trading rules for higher returns and reduced risk.
problem Noisy market data affects the consistency and profitability of trading algorithms.
method Optimized trading rules derived from technical indicators using a Genetic Algorithm.
result GA-MSSR achieved superior performance with significant positive returns and reduced risk factors.
In this paper we apply a new approach of the string theory to the real financial market. It is direct extension and application of the work [1] into prediction of prices. The models are constructed with an idea of prediction models based on the string invariants (PMBSI). The performance of PMBSI is compared to support …
Flexible algorithm of multicurrency trade on Forex market has been built on the grounds of non-linear stochastic wavelets (NSW) model. Probability of the loss-free trade has been evaluated. Results of the algorithm's real-time testing and issues of the algorithm's development are discussed.
Correlation matrices of foreign exchange rate time series are investigated for 60 world currencies. Minimal Spanning Tree (MST) graphs for the gold, silver and platinum are presented. Inverse power like scaling is discussed for these graphs as well as for four distinct currency groups (major, liquid, less liquid and no…
Study of the forecasting models using large scale microblog discussions and the search behavior data can provide a good insight for better understanding the market movements. In this work we collected a dataset of 2 million tweets and search volume index (SVI from Google) for a period of June 2010 to September 2011. We…
Deep reinforcement learning improves forex trading by handling complex, random processes.
problem Stable trends in deep learning predictions for forex trading.
method Used reinforcement learning, optimized Sure-Fire policy, encoded price data, compared DQN and PPO.
result Models achieved favorable investment performance, validating reinforcement learning feasibility.
Model shows triangular arbitrage key to cross-currency correlations in forex markets.
problem Understanding cross-currency correlations in forex markets.
method Agent-based model of market interactions.
result Triangular arbitrage is primary driver of cross-currency correlations.
Machine learning models show intermarket data can predict stock market performance better than expected.
problem Evaluating the semi-strong form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis.
method Used machine learning techniques on various intermarket data sets to predict stock market performance.
result Intermarket data significantly outperforms baselines in predicting stock market movement, contradicting the semi-strong EMH.
Model explains financial market volatility using agent interactions.
problem Understanding volatility return intervals in financial markets.
method Interacting agent hypothesis, herding interactions, non-linear stochastic differential equations.
result Model reproduces power-law properties and scaling of return intervals.
Study compares nine deep learning architectures for multi-horizon financial forecasting.
problem Evaluating the performance of deep learning architectures for multi-horizon financial forecasting.
method Conducted 918 experiments across cryptocurrency, forex, and equity markets using nine architectures.
result ModernTCN achieves the best mean rank (1.333) with a 75 percent first-place rate.
Paper introduces non-adversarial training for Neural SDEs using signature kernel scores.
problem Stability and mode collapse issues in adversarial training of Neural SDEs.
method Uses signature kernel scores as objective function for non-adversarial training.
result Non-adversarial training leads to better performance and more stable models.
From positions, attained by modern theoretical physics in understanding of the universe bases, the methodological and philosophical analysis of fundamental physical concepts and their formal and informal connections with the real economic measurings is carried out. Procedures for heterogeneous economic time determinati…
The aim of this paper is to determine the Value at Risk (VaR) of the portfolio consisting of long positions in foreign currencies on an emerging market. Basing on empirical data we restrict ourselves to the case when the tail parts of distributions of logarithmic returns of these assets follow the power laws and the lo…
Algorithm of multicurrency trading at the market of Forex is realized on the basis of nonlinear stochastic wavelets. The distinctive feature of the algorithm is the possibility of weakly- and strongly connected horizontal self-assemblies, as well as use of nested structures. On-line trading with eight currency couples …
A large set of daily FOREX time series is analyzed. The corresponding correlation matrices (CM) are constructed for USD, EUR and PLZ used as the base currencies. The triangle rule is interpreted as constraints reducing the number of independent returns. The CM spectrum is computed and compared with the cases of shuffle…
Study confirms USD/JPY rises at Gotobi days, suggesting trading strategy.
problem Verifying trading strategy based on Gotobi anomaly.
method Analyzing USD/JPY rate trends and examining arbitrage opportunities.
result Valid trading strategy identified for Gotobi anomaly.
We argue that the word ``critical'' in the title is not purely literary. Based on our and other previous work on nonlinear complex dynamical systems, we summarize present evidence, on the Oct. 1929, Oct. 1987, Oct. 1987 Hong-Kong, Aug. 1998 global market events and on the 1985 Forex event, for the hypothesis advanced f…
This paper reports empirical evidence that a neural networks model is applicable to the statistically reliable prediction of foreign exchange rates. Time series data and technical indicators such as moving average, are fed to neural nets to capture the underlying "rules" of the movement in currency exchange rates. The …
In this work, we consider the optimal portfolio selection problem under hard constraints on trading volume amounts when the dynamics of the risky asset returns are governed by a discrete-time approximation of the Markov-modulated geometric Brownian motion. The states of Markov chain are interpreted as the states of an …
A new non parametric approach to the problem of testing the independence of two random process is developed. The test statistic is the Hilbert Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC), which was used previously in testing independence for i.i.d pairs of variables. The asymptotic behaviour of HSIC is established when compu…
This paper uses bivariate time series to analyze currency similarity in the foreign exchange market.
problem Analyzing similarity among currencies in the foreign exchange market.
method Applies Escoufier's RV coefficient to measure similarity between bivariate time series of currency exchange rates.
result Demonstrates the advantages of using RV coefficient for analyzing currency topological structure.
The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is widely accepted to hold true under certain assumptions. One of its implications is that the prediction of stock prices at least in the short run cannot outperform the random walk model. Yet, recently many studies stressing the psychological and social dimension of financial beha…