Classifies load forecasting studies by forecasting problem.
problem Selecting appropriate load forecasting techniques and methodologies.
method Classification based on two forecasting problem parameters.
result Synthetic view of relevant forecasting techniques and methodologies.
The 2006 sudden and immense downturn in U.S. House Prices sparked the 2007 global financial crisis and revived the interest about forecasting such imminent threats for economic stability. In this paper we propose a novel hybrid forecasting methodology that combines the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) from …
New framework optimizes forecasting and decision-making in dynamic systems.
problem Optimizing forecasting and decision-making processes in dynamic systems.
method Closed-loop framework using bilevel optimization.
result The proposed methodology yields consistently better performance than the standard open-loop approach.
Solar forecasting accuracy is affected by weather conditions, and weather awareness forecasting models are expected to improve the performance. However, it may not be available and reliable to classify different forecasting tasks by using only meteorological weather categorization. In this paper, an unsupervised cluste…
We introduce a new methodology for forecasting which we call Signal Diffusion Mapping. Our approach accommodates features of real world financial data which have been ignored historically in existing forecasting methodologies. Our method builds upon well-established and accepted methods from other areas of statistical …
New method combines simple forecasting techniques for river flow predictions.
problem Improving accuracy of long-term hydrological forecasts.
method Combines at least two forecasting methods using median combiner.
result Performs well in long-term forecasts, especially with multiple methods.
Paper compares simple and complex forecasting methods for photovoltaic power generation.
problem Improving accuracy of power generation forecasts from photovoltaic plants.
method Compared simple and sophisticated forecasting methods over 32 plants.
result Simpler methods are sufficient for accurate forecasts, but weather impacts are significant.
Optimal reconciliation keeps some forecasts unchanged in hierarchical forecasting.
problem Keeping some forecasts unchanged in hierarchical forecasting.
method Formulates a method to keep some forecasts unchanged in a hierarchical forecasting system.
result Preserves unbiasedness and non-negativity of forecasts.
This paper extends forecast reconciliation to non-linearly constrained time series.
problem Forecasting time series with non-linear constraints.
method Non-linearly Constrained Reconciliation (NLCR) algorithm that adjusts forecasts to meet non-linear constraints.
result NLCR significantly improves forecast accuracy compared to benchmarks.
Paper introduces COBRA variations for multivariate time series forecasting.
problem Multivariate time series forecasting challenges.
method Innovative COBRA variations, data preprocessing, Bayesian optimisation vs. grid search.
result Proposed methodologies outperform state-of-the-art models.
Machine learning predicts COVID-19 activity in China.
problem Real-time forecasting of COVID-19 activity in Chinese provinces.
method Combines mechanistic disease models with digital traces (internet searches, news alerts). Uses clustering and data augmentation techniques.
result Stable and accurate forecasts 2 days ahead of current time, outperforming baseline models in 27 out of 32 provinces.
We present a methodology for probabilistic load forecasting that is based on lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) estimation. The model considered can be regarded as a bivariate time-varying threshold autoregressive(AR) process for the hourly electric load and temperature. The joint modeling approach…
Method improves clarity in forecasting spatio-temporal data.
problem Forecasting spatio-temporal data with clarity and interpretability.
method Supervised semi-nonnegative matrix factorization with frequency regularization.
result Method offers clearer interpretability in forecasting spatio-temporal data.
We present a new Monte-Carlo methodology to forecast the crude oil production of Norway and the U.K. based on a two-step process, (i) the nonlinear extrapolation of the current/past performances of individual oil fields and (ii) a stochastic model of the frequency of future oil field discoveries. Compared with the stan…
New method uses neural networks to forecast spatial-temporal data.
problem Probabilistic forecasting of spatio-temporal data with causal structure.
method MMAF-guided learning with ensemble of stochastic feed-forward neural networks.
result Forecasting remains calibrated across multiple time horizons.
New method uses MMAF-guided learning for spatio-temporal probabilistic forecasts.
problem Probabilistic forecasting of spatio-temporal data with causal structure.
method Generalized Bayesian methodology, MMAF-guided learning, ensemble of stochastic feed-forward neural networks.
result Forecast performance comparable to, and sometimes better than, deep learning architectures.
The paper proposes blending gradient boosted trees and neural networks for hierarchical time series forecasting.
problem Point and probabilistic forecasting of hierarchical time series.
method A blending methodology of gradient boosted trees and neural networks, with feature engineering and diverse model selection.
result Ranked within the gold medal range in both Accuracy and Uncertainty tracks of the M5 Competition.
LSTMs improve bond yield forecasting with unique signals.
problem Improving bond yield forecasting accuracy.
method Long short-term memory (LSTM) networks with sequence-to-sequence architectures and LSTM-LagLasso methodology.
result Univariate LSTM models with additional memory can achieve similar results as multivariate MLP models using exogenous information.
Paper proposes efficient methods for forecasting with large datasets.
problem Forecasting with large, high-dimensional economic data sets.
method Bayesian hierarchical priors, factor graphs, message passing algorithms, Generalized Approximate Message Passing (GAMP).
result The proposed methods outperform traditional approaches in forecasting U.S. price inflation.
This study forecasts climate data in Chile using EOFs and machine learning models.
problem Predicting climatic variability in Chile for resource management and planning.
method Combines EOF decomposition, wavelet analysis, and neural networks for spatiotemporal forecasting.
result Improved accuracy in forecasting climate data through a hybrid ML approach.
Unified framework for integrating linear constraints in time series forecasting.
problem Challenges in traditional time series forecasting algorithms.
method Unified framework combining linear constraints in time series forecasting.
result Exact minimizer of the constrained empirical risk can be computed efficiently using linear algebra.
The paper proposes a method to improve forecast combination accuracy using portfolio theory.
problem Improving forecast accuracy by combining multiple forecasts.
method Generates forecast combinations using a portfolio analogy, allowing negative weights for hedging.
result Demonstrates improved performance in weighted random forest forecasts.
New method predicts spatio-temporal data with short and long-range dependence.
problem Uncertainty in predicting the distribution of mixed moving average fields.
method Theory-guided machine learning approach using generalized Bayesian algorithm.
result Fixed-time and any-time PAC Bayesian bounds for ensemble forecasts.
The paper reviews Hankel low-rank methods for time series analysis and forecasting.
problem Developing efficient methods for time series analysis and forecasting.
method Hankel low-rank approximation and completion techniques.
result Discussion of methods and challenges in obtaining optimal solutions.
Paper proposes a new method for forecasting interest rates using Vasicek and CIR models.
problem Forecasting interest rates with Vasicek and CIR models.
method Rolling windows partitioning of data to capture time changes in volatility.
result The new approach outperforms traditional methods in low to negative interest rate environments.
We propose a novel methodology to define, analyze and forecast market states. In our approach market states are identified by a reference sparse precision matrix and a vector of expectation values. In our procedure, each multivariate observation is associated with a given market state accordingly to a minimization of a…
Method leverages bid/ask curves to improve price distribution forecasts.
problem Inaccurate price forecasts in irregular market conditions.
method Error-dressing technique using published bid/ask information.
result Method outperforms standard distributional modeling.
Deep learning improves weather modeling for electricity load forecasting.
problem Accurate load and renewable energy forecasting requires complex spatio-temporal weather modeling.
method Automated spatio-temporal feature extraction using deep neural networks.
result Deep learning outperforms traditional methods in French national load forecasting.
Probabilistic forecasting, i.e. estimating the probability distribution of a time series' future given its past, is a key enabler for optimizing business processes. In retail businesses, for example, forecasting demand is crucial for having the right inventory available at the right time at the right place. In this pap…
Frugal method predicts multiple local electricity loads efficiently.
problem Day-ahead forecasting of over 1000 substations in France.
method Adaptive generalized additive models with state-space representations, combined with transfer learning.
result Reduction of computational needs and emissions with competitive accuracy.
New method learns interaction-aware orderbook representation for better intraday electricity price forecasting.
problem Challenges in probabilistic intraday electricity price forecasting due to dynamic orderbook microstructure.
method OrderFusion: an end-to-end and parameter-efficient probabilistic forecasting model that learns interaction-aware representation of buy-sell dynamics.
result Consistent improvements over conventional baselines in probabilistic forecasting of CID price indices.
Demand functions for goods are generally cyclical in nature with characteristics such as trend or stochasticity. Most existing demand forecasting techniques in literature are designed to manage and forecast this type of demand functions. However, if the demand function is lumpy in nature, then the general demand foreca…
Analog forecasting uses local dynamics to predict chaotic systems.
problem Theoretical connections between analog forecasting and dynamical systems are overlooked.
method Local approximations of the system's dynamics, linear regression, and estimation of analog forecasting errors.
result Analog forecasting performances are highly linked to the local Jacobian matrix of the flow map.
Long-lead forecasting for spatio-temporal systems can often entail complex nonlinear dynamics that are difficult to specify it a priori. Current statistical methodologies for modeling these processes are often highly parameterized and thus, challenging to implement from a computational perspective. One potential parsim…
Study forecasts food security trends using real-time data.
problem Food insecurity prediction for sub-national regions.
method Quantitative methodology combining various machine learning models.
result Reservoir Computing model performs best in food security prediction.
Study improves seasonal forecasts using deep learning.
problem Challenges in generating large forecast ensembles and limited observations for verification.
method Developed a probabilistic deep neural network model.
result Demonstrated favorable skill compared to state-of-the-art dynamical forecast systems.
A method for selecting data for short-term load forecasting using Bayesian probabilistic models.
problem Lack of effective data selection techniques in power load forecasting.
method A fully automatic methodology based on a full Bayesian probabilistic model.
result The method improves the performance of load forecast models using real data.
Paper proposes a new method for demand forecasting in pricing contexts.
problem Demand forecasting in pricing contexts, especially in a profit optimal manner.
method Combines Double Machine Learning for causal inference and transformer-based forecasting models.
result Our method outperforms other forecasting methods in off-policy settings.
Develops likelihood-based methods for trawl processes, improving forecasting accuracy.
problem Statistical modeling of trawl processes with heavy tails and long memory.
method Composite likelihood estimation as a stochastic optimization problem, using gradient descent methods.
result New gradient estimators with significantly reduced variance for trawl processes.
Improved covariance matrix forecasting for S&P 500 using factor models and shrinkage.
problem Forecasting large covariance matrices of returns in finance.
method Decompose covariance matrix into firm-level factors and sectoral restrictions. Estimate using VHAR models with LASSO.
result Significantly improved forecasting precision compared to benchmarks.
Gaussian Processes enhance financial forecasting by predicting mean-reverting time series with probability distributions.
problem Accurate long-term financial predictions with probability distributions.
method Functional and augmented data structures for Gaussian Processes.
result Gaussian Processes offer improved long-term predictions with probability distributions.
ML improves flood forecasting by leveraging local data.
problem Human calibration, limited data, and computational difficulty.
method Transfer learning and ML for high-dimensional scenarios.
result ML systems achieve timely and accurate flood prediction.
A new model validation framework for agentic AI systems based on POMDPs.
problem Model validation of agentic AI systems.
method A POMDP-based framework for belief-state, forecast, and policy validation.
result The framework decomposes autonomous decision making into information, beliefs, forecasts, actions, and utility.
Study predicts bond yields using machine learning and ultimate forward rates.
problem Forecasting bond yields using ultimate forward rates.
method Applied de Kort-Vellekooptype methodology for UFR estimation, used linear and nonlinear machine learning techniques.
result Nonlinear machine learning models outperform linear models in bond yield forecasting.
For any business, planning is a continuous process, and typically business-owners focus on making both long-term planning aligned with a particular strategy as well as short-term planning that accommodates the dynamic market situations. An ability to perform an accurate financial forecast is crucial for effective plann…
Paper introduces probabilistic forecasting methods for cryptocurrency volatility.
problem Inadequate point forecasting methods for capturing full spectrum of volatility outcomes.
method Combines multiple base models (statistical and machine learning) to estimate conditional quantiles of cryptocurrency realized variance.
result QRS method outperforms sophisticated alternatives for Bitcoin volatility forecasting.
New framework forecasts both supply and demand in rental markets.
problem Booking models ignore supply, leading to regime-specific ceilings.
method Three-part coupling framework (behavioral, informational, intervention).
result Booking models learn a regime-specific ceiling and become fragile.
Adaptive probabilistic load forecasting improves performance in power systems.
problem Complexity of electricity load forecasting due to changing drivers and local generation.
method Adaptive probabilistic approach using Kalman filter and online gradient descent.
result Adaptive probabilistic forecasts improve performance in both point and probabilistic forecasting.