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On-device research index

arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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23477093 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for forecasting capacity

Generalizes memory and forecasting capacities for nonlinear recurrent networks with dependent inputs.

problem Understanding memory and forecasting capabilities in networks with dependent inputs.
method Formulated bounds for memory and forecasting capacities in terms of network size and input properties.
result Proved that memory capacity for linear recurrent networks with independent inputs is given by the rank of the controllability matrix.

Managing data storage growth is of crucial importance to businesses. Poor practices can lead to large data and financial losses. Access to storage information along with timely action, or capacity forecasting, are essential to avoid these losses. In addition, ensuring high accuracy of capacity forecast estimates along …

2018-12-01abs ↗pdf ↗

Study optimizes pricing under uncertainty and capacity constraints.

problem Optimizing pricing decisions under demand uncertainty and capacity constraints.
method Analyzes linear demand, stochastic noise, and finite capacity; uses certified demand forecasts and control variates.
result Certified demand forecasts reduce regret from O(T)O(\sqrt{T}) to O(logT)O(\log T) under certain conditions.

Study characterizes memory capacity of quantum reservoirs using transmon qubits.

problem Understanding the memory capacity of quantum reservoirs built with transmon qubits.
method Characterized memory capacity of quantum reservoirs using transmon qubits from IBM, focusing on NMSE and topology complexity.
result Found a peak in memory capacity for configurations with n-1 self-loops, suggesting optimal design for forecasting tasks.

Accurately predicting the future capacity and remaining useful life of batteries is necessary to ensure reliable system operation and to minimise maintenance costs. The complex nature of battery degradation has meant that mechanistic modelling of capacity fade has thus far remained intractable; however, with the advent…

2017-03-16abs ↗pdf ↗

New findings challenge the importance of forecast accuracy in battery storage optimization, highlighting the role of rank correlation instead.

problem The challenge of optimizing battery storage dispatch decisions in multi-market electricity trading using forecast accuracy metrics.
method A hierarchical three-layer optimization system trading in multiple markets (FCR, aFRR, day-ahead, intraday) with real market data.
result Rank correlation (Kendall tau) is a better predictor of intraday dispatch value than forecast accuracy (MAE), with a threshold of tau around 0.85-0.95 capturing up to 97-100% of perfect-foresight revenue.

Study builds dataset and benchmarks ML models for accurate solar and wind power forecasting in France.

problem Accurate prediction of non-dispatchable renewable energy sources for grid stability and price prediction.
method Comprehensive methodology using machine learning models trained with spatially explicit weather data and production site capacity.
result Neural networks outperform traditional models in forecasting solar and wind power production in France.

AI helps forecasters understand TC convective evolution before intensification.

problem Challenges in extracting scientific insights from complex TC data.
method Combining AI prediction algorithms and classical statistical inference.
result Identifies patterns in TC convective structure leading to intensification.

Study finds macroeconomic indicators predict health workforce and infrastructure measures.

problem Evaluating the predictive value of macroeconomic indicators for public health targets.
method Examined multiple forecasting approaches including neural networks, generalized additive models, random forests, and time series models with exogenous indicators.
result Macroeconomic indicators provide consistent and reproducible predictive signals for health workforce and infrastructure measures, but less so for other targets.

ChatGPT predicts stock market reactions from news headlines without financial training.

problem Predicting stock price movements using non-financial data.
method Used post-knowledge-cutoff headlines to train ChatGPT-4, which forecasts stock market reactions.
result ChatGPT-4 can predict stock market reactions with high accuracy, especially for small stocks and negative news.

Paper presents a method for probabilistic load forecasting using adaptive online learning.

problem Inability to assess intrinsic uncertainties and capture dynamic changes in consumption patterns.
method Adaptive online learning of hidden Markov models for recursive parameter updates and sequential prediction.
result Significant improvement in performance compared to existing techniques across various scenarios.

Proposes a transformer model with geostatistical inductive bias for spatio-temporal forecasting.

problem Combining probabilistic rigor of geostatistics with flexible deep learning representations.
method Spatially-informed transformer with learnable covariance kernel.
result Successfully recovers spatial decay parameters end-to-end via backpropagation.

Signature kernel scoring rule improves weather forecasting by capturing temporal and spatial dependencies.

problem Lack of suitable scoring rules for probabilistic weather forecasting.
method Reframe weather variables as continuous paths using iterated integrals (signature kernels) to capture temporal and spatial dependencies.
result Signature kernel scoring rule outperforms conventional methods in weather forecasting, especially for long-term forecasts.

Short-term probabilistic forecasting of German electricity imbalance prices.

problem Uncertainty in renewable energy capacity and electricity prices.
method Combining lasso with bootstrap, gamlss, and probabilistic neural networks for forecasting imbalance prices.
result Sophisticated methods improve empirical coverage of imbalance prices but do not substantially outperform the intraday continuous price index.

SAMformer improves transformer performance in time series forecasting.

problem Transformers struggle with multivariate long-term forecasting.
method Sharpness-aware minimization and channel-wise attention.
result SAMformer surpasses state-of-the-art methods in multivariate time series forecasting.

Paper tackles inventory management with deep learning, improving performance and adherence to constraints.

problem Managing inventory with limited resources and constraints.
method Proposes a novel method to sample from a distribution of possible constraint paths, extends exo-IDP formulation, introduces neural coordinator, and uses modified DirectBackprop algorithm.
result Deep reinforcement learning policies with a neural coordinator outperform classic baselines in terms of performance and adherence to constraints.

Proposes a Big Data framework for SC forecasting, including data preprocessing and machine learning.

problem Improving SC forecasting accuracy and efficiency.
method Data collection, preprocessing, machine learning model training, hyperparameter tuning, performance evaluation.
result Optimized SC forecasting models enhance workforce, inventory, and overall SC performance.

ERDM integrates rolling forecasts with diffusion models for complex dynamics.

problem Forecasting complex dynamics with rolling forecasts and diffusion models.
method Adapting EDM components for rolling forecasts, introducing novel loss weighting, efficient initialization, and hybrid architecture.
result ERDM outperforms diffusion-based baselines in 2D Navier-Stokes simulations and ERA5 weather forecasting.

Exponentially smoothed RNNs improve industrial forecasting.

problem Complexity and non-stationarity in industrial time series data.
method Exponential smoothed recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for modeling non-linear dynamics.
result Exponentially smoothed RNNs outperform traditional models in multi-step forecasting.

DEPTS learns to forecast periodic time series with improved accuracy.

problem Forecasting periodic time series is challenging due to complex dependencies and diverse periods.
method DEPTS uses a decoupled formulation with an expansion module and a periodicity module to handle these challenges.
result DEPTS significantly improves forecasting accuracy, reducing errors by up to 20%.

This paper forecasts renewable energy prospects in South America through cross-border interconnection.

problem Lack of renewable energy integration across South American countries.
method Long-term scenario forecasting methodology applied to raw data from typical countries.
result Promoting cross-border interconnection towards renewables can optimize energy supply, reduce costs, and balance the energy matrix.

The paper optimizes forecasting for risk-adjusted decisions under trading frictions.

problem Optimizing forecasting accuracy for investment decisions in the presence of transaction costs.
method Develops a utility-weighted calibration criterion to minimize decision loss net of costs.
result Utility-weighted calibration reduces decision loss by over 30% and improves Sharpe ratio.

New method improves wind and solar energy forecasts by 48 hours.

problem Volatility of wind and solar energy makes accurate forecasts difficult.
method Two-step machine learning approach to calibrate ensemble forecasts.
result Statistical post-processing improves forecast skill by at least 48 hours.

We present a unified method, based on convex optimization, for managing the power produced and consumed by a network of devices over time. We start with the simple setting of optimizing power flows in a static network, and then proceed to the case of optimizing dynamic power flows, i.e., power flows that change with ti…

2019-03-14abs ↗pdf ↗

A hybrid strategy forecasts short-term loads using Warm-start Gradient Tree Boosting.

problem Lack of effective short-term load forecasting methods.
method Hybrid strategy integrating four different inference models: tree-based ensemble method Warm-start Gradient Tree Boosting (WGTB).
result Demonstrates effectiveness of hybrid strategy on real datasets.

Research focuses on predicting electricity prices with complex models considering probabilistic forecasts.

problem Challenging task due to market dynamics and weather and business activity dependence.
method Shift from econometric to statistical/machine learning models, considering probabilistic forecasts.
result More accurate predictions with complex models and probabilistic measures.

The emerge of new technologies to synthesize and analyze big data with high-performance computing, has increased our capacity to more accurately predict crop yields. Recent research has shown that Machine learning (ML) can provide reasonable predictions, faster, and with higher flexibility compared to simulation crop m…

2020-01-18abs ↗pdf ↗

DRN improves actuarial distributional forecasting with interpretable neural networks.

problem Challenges in modeling loss distributional properties with classic methods.
method Combines GLMs with a modified DDR method to flexibly refine baseline distribution.
result DRN improves predictive performance while maintaining interpretability.

New method improves traffic forecasting models by adapting to spatial shifts.

problem Improving traffic forecasting models' ability to handle spatial shifts over years.
method Proposes a novel Mixture of Experts (MoE) framework for spatiotemporal models.
result Significant improvement in performance for handling spatial distribution shifts.