Wind energy producer optimizes trading policies using updated forecasts.
problem Maximizing profit from wind energy sales in various markets.
method Stochastic model for forecast evolution, dynamic trading policies.
result Quantifies expected future gain and forecasts' economic value.
Model forgets examples; this research predicts which ones to replay.
problem Language models forget examples during updates, leading to errors.
method Train forecasting models to predict which examples will be forgotten.
result Forecasting models can reduce forgetting of upstream pretraining examples.
Dynamic probabilistic forecasts guide optimal decisions in uncertain processes.
problem Optimal decision making in processes influenced by uncertain random factors.
method Stochastic models for probabilistic forecast evolution, calibrated from ensemble forecasts.
result Optimal decision strategies determined using dynamic probabilistic forecasts.
Proposes time-smoothed gradients for more stable online forecasting.
problem Stability and efficiency in online forecasting with SGD.
method Introduces time-smoothed gradients within SGD update rules.
result Time-smoothed gradients yield more stable results than existing methods.
R package for online forecasting in various fields.
problem Frequent updates of forecasts in online settings.
method Generalized setup for time-adaptive fitting of dynamical and non-linear models.
result Effective use of forecasts as model inputs in operational settings.
Study improves keyword forecasting in earnings-call prediction markets.
problem Accurately predicting future keyword mentions in earnings calls.
method Experiments on earnings-call mention markets, varying context and market probability, introducing MCP.
result Mixture of market probability and MCP yields the best forecasts.
GFM models neural network training as a dynamical system to forecast final weights.
problem Computational intensity and inefficiency in training deep neural networks.
method Gradient Flow Matching (GFM) treats training as a dynamical system with learned vector fields.
result GFM achieves forecasting accuracy competitive with Transformer-based models and significantly outperforms classical baselines.
A TTA framework improves forecasting accuracy in non-stationary time series.
problem Improving forecasting accuracy in non-stationary time series.
method Normalization-based test-time adaptation for causal timeseries forecasting and direction classification.
result Normalization-based TTA improves forecasting error in synthetic gradual drift and can even hurt in aggressive norm-only adaptation in financial markets.
ARU adapts deep forecasting models in streaming data with efficient updates.
problem Adapting deep globally trained models for streaming data efficiently.
method ARU combines deep global models with closed-form linear models for per-series adaptation.
result ARU outperforms local adaptation methods on various datasets.
We introduce a new local regret framework for non-convex models in dynamic environments.
problem Challenges in online forecasting for non-convex models with frequent updates and concept drift.
method We propose a novel local regret framework and a time-smoothed gradient update rule.
result Our approach yields more stable, robust, and computationally efficient forecasting compared to state-of-the-art methods.
DoubleAdapt improves stock trend forecasting by adapting models to evolving data.
problem Incremental learning for stock trend forecasting is challenging due to distribution shifts.
method DoubleAdapt framework with two adapters for data and model adaptation.
result DoubleAdapt achieves state-of-the-art predictive performance on real-world stock datasets.
Kernel interpolation speeds up online Gaussian process updates.
problem Efficiently updating Gaussian process posteriors with new data.
method Structured kernel interpolation for constant-time updates.
result Exact inference maintained with constant-time updates.
DA improves solar wind forecasts by updating model boundary conditions.
problem Improving solar wind forecasting accuracy.
method Variational Data Assimilation with solar wind model and in-situ observations.
result DA forecasts are more accurate than non-DA forecasts, especially when STEREO-B's latitude is offset from Earth.
Two methods forecast functional time series, offering competitive results.
problem Forecasting functional time series with model-free approaches.
method Two nonparametric methods: k-nearest neighbors adaptation and curve envelope selection.
result Competitive results with and often superior to benchmarks.
CDLF predicts product life-cycles in cold-start phases with high accuracy.
problem Forecasting new products in early phases when data is scarce.
method Conditional Diffusion Life-cycle Forecaster (CDLF) combining static descriptors, reference trajectories, and new observations.
result CDLF outperforms classical models in accuracy and probabilistic forecasting.
Bayesian model predicts oncology demand trends with high accuracy.
problem Accurate forecasting of oncology demand for resource planning.
method Boosting-based Bayesian conjugate models for Poisson process.
result Model outperforms other methods in trend detection accuracy.
This paper improves forecast stability without sacrificing accuracy using dynamic loss weighting.
problem Rolling origin forecast instability in time series forecasting.
method Dynamic loss weighting algorithms applied to the N-BEATS model.
result Dynamic loss weighting can further improve forecast stability without compromising accuracy.
Warped DLMs improve forecasting for count time series.
problem Limited options for modeling count time series data.
method Introduces a semiparametric methodology using warping of Gaussian DLMs.
result Demonstrates improved forecasting capabilities for count time series.
A RL approach dynamically assigns and updates weights of ensemble models for better time series forecasting.
problem Static weight assignment for ensemble models fails to capture dynamic data changes.
method Reinforcement Learning (RL) to dynamically update weights of each model at different time instants.
result Dynamic weighted approach using RL learns weights better than static methods.
New method uses shared attention for multi-task time series forecasting.
problem Insufficient training instances in single-task forecasting.
method Self-attention based sharing schemes across multiple tasks.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art single-task forecasting baselines and RNN-based multi-task forecasting method.
Proposes QDF to improve multi-step time-series forecasting.
problem Ignoring label autocorrelation and unequal task weights in training objectives.
method Quadratic-form weighted training objective and QDF learning algorithm.
result Improves performance of various forecast models, achieving state-of-the-art results.
Less frequent retraining improves forecast accuracy in retail demand forecasting.
problem Balancing forecast accuracy and computational efficiency in global models.
method Analysis of ten machine learning and deep learning models across two large retail datasets with various retraining scenarios.
result Less frequent retraining strategies maintain forecast accuracy while reducing computational costs.
Transformers forecast time series in-context, improving efficiency and performance.
problem Overfitting and limited performance in time series forecasting.
method Reformulate time series forecasting as input tokens, aligning with in-context learning mechanisms.
result Consistently better performance across various settings (full-data, few-shot, zero-shot).
Belief networks are a new, potentially important, class of knowledge-based models. ARCO1, currently under development at the Atlantic Richfield Company (ARCO) and the University of Southern California (USC), is the most advanced reported implementation of these models in a financial forecasting setting. ARCO1's underly…
Paper presents a method for probabilistic load forecasting using adaptive online learning.
problem Inability to assess intrinsic uncertainties and capture dynamic changes in consumption patterns.
method Adaptive online learning of hidden Markov models for recursive parameter updates and sequential prediction.
result Significant improvement in performance compared to existing techniques across various scenarios.
KNF uses Koopman theory to forecast time series with changing dynamics.
problem Temporal distributional shifts in time series data.
method KNF combines DNNs with Koopman theory to learn dynamic operators.
result KNF outperforms alternatives on time series datasets with distributional shifts.
Paper uses Gaussian Processes to forecast financial volatility.
problem Forecasting volatility of financial returns.
method Gaussian Process regression on financial return envelopes.
result GP's outperform traditional methods like GARCH.
Improved time series forecasting with expert loss integration.
problem Enhancing time series forecasting accuracy and efficiency.
method Adaptive Mixture-of-Experts framework with expert-specific loss integration and online learning.
result Significantly improved forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency.
TCP provides well-calibrated prediction intervals for nonstationary time series.
problem Nonstationary time series forecasting with well-calibrated prediction intervals.
method Temporal Conformal Prediction (TCP) couples a modern quantile forecaster with a rolling split-conformal calibration layer.
result TCP achieves near-nominal coverage, providing slightly wider intervals than Historical Simulation.
Transformer model forecasts electricity price spread for virtual bidding.
problem Volatility in renewable energy causes price forecasting challenges.
method Transformer-based deep learning model using various time-series features.
result Trading strategy at peak hour yields nearly consistent profit.
Proceed adapts models proactively against concept drift in online time series forecasting.
problem Concept drift causes forecast models to adapt to outdated concepts, reducing performance.
method Proceed estimates and translates concept drift into parameter adjustments, enhancing model resilience.
result Proceed brings more performance improvements than state-of-the-art online learning methods.
SubseasonalClimateUSA dataset improves subseasonal weather forecasting.
problem Challenges in subseasonal weather forecasting, especially skill of physics-based models and integration of local and global variables.
method Curated dataset for training and benchmarking subseasonal forecasting models, including various methods.
result Benchmarking suggests simple and effective ways to improve current operational models.
EvoMSN tackles time series forecasting under distribution shifts by evolving multi-scale normalization.
problem Accurate long-term time series forecasting under complex distribution shifts.
method EvoMSN framework with multi-scale statistics prediction and adaptive ensembling for collaborative updating.
result Improves forecasting performance of five mainstream methods on benchmark datasets.
Spacetimeformer learns spatiotemporal relationships from data alone.
problem Forecasting multivariate time series with distinct spatial relationships.
method Transformers with dynamic graph connections learning interactions between space, time, and value.
result Competitive results on various time series prediction benchmarks.
Engine forecasts NO2, O3, PM2.5, PM10 with high accuracy.
problem Accurate long-term air quality forecasting.
method Convolutional LSTM network trained on grid data.
result 4-day forecasts significantly outperform simple benchmarks.
New method reduces forecasting error by up to 67% in various data types.
problem Outliers and model misspecification in online infinite hidden Markov models.
method Batched Robust iHMM (BR-iHMM) with bounded posterior influence function.
result Reduces one-step-ahead forecasting error by up to 67% in various data types.
FSNet improves online time series forecasting by balancing fast adaptation and old knowledge.
problem Online time series forecasting challenges in handling abrupt and recurring patterns.
method Inspired by CLS theory, FSNet uses a dynamic balance between fast adaptation and old knowledge retrieval.
result FSNet achieves robustness to both new and recurring patterns through dynamic balancing and associative memory.
In this paper we develop a Bayesian procedure for estimating multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) using state space models. A multiplicative model based on inverted Wishart and multivariate singular beta distributions is proposed for the evolution of the volatility, and a flexible sequential volatility updating is …
Generative adversarial network improves geosteering in fluvial reservoirs.
problem Improving geosteering in complex reservoirs with high uncertainties.
method Generative adversarial deep neural network (GAN) trained to model fluvial successions.
result Reduces uncertainty and correctly predicts geological features up to 500 meters ahead of drill-bit.
Paper proposes an efficient method for calibrating spatio-temporal forecasts.
problem Real-world spatio-temporal forecasting challenges like signal anomalies and distributional shifts.
method Learning with Calibration (ST-TTC) for real-time bias correction.
result ST-TTC improves spatio-temporal forecasting accuracy with reduced computational cost.
Game-theoretic model captures investor interactions for stock price forecasting.
problem Complex market dynamics driving stock price movements.
method Game-theoretic modeling of heterogeneous investor interactions in a dynamic graph structure.
result Our method outperforms state-of-the-art stock price forecasting methods.
HSR reduces analyst earnings forecast errors by lowering travel friction.
problem How HSR connectivity affects analyst earnings forecast errors in China.
method Firm-year panel data from 2008-2019; placebo test to rule out pre-existing trends.
result HSR reduces analyst earnings forecast errors after connectivity, not before.
GAS-Norm improves deep learning time series forecasting in non-stationary settings.
problem Deep learning models struggle with non-stationary time series data.
method Combines GAS model for adaptive normalization with deep neural networks.
result Improves deep learning performance in 21 out of 25 settings.
Deep learning model improves financial return forecasting using LOBs.
problem Forecasting financial returns using Limit Order Books.
method Developed a deep learning architecture for simultaneous quantile regression of buy and sell positions.
result The model provides improved robustness and excellent performance in predicting financial returns.
SKOLR uses linear RNNs to approximate Koopman operators for time-series forecasting.
problem Nonlinear dynamical system analysis and time-series forecasting with infinite-dimensional Koopman operators.
method Established a connection between Koopman operator approximation and linear RNNs, integrating learnable spectral decomposition and MLP.
result SKOLR delivers exceptional performance in various forecasting benchmarks and dynamical systems.
Meta-learning framework improves zero-shot time-series forecasting.
problem Improving generalization on new time series from different datasets.
method Broad meta-learning framework with residual connections as adaptation mechanism.
result Viable zero-shot univariate forecasting without retraining.
Online learning rbfnet improves multi-horizon returns forecasts for financial time series.
problem Nonstationarity and concept drift in financial time series.
method Combines feature representation transfer with sequential optimisation.
result Online learning rbfnet outperforms random-walk and batch learners.
Unified GARCH-NN models improve financial volatility forecasting.
problem Improving financial volatility forecasting accuracy and efficiency.
method Embedding GARCH dynamics within recurrent neural networks (GRU and LSTM).
result Unified GARCH-NN models outperform classical GARCH and hybrid methods.