Engine forecasts NO2, O3, PM2.5, PM10 with high accuracy.
problem Accurate long-term air quality forecasting.
method Convolutional LSTM network trained on grid data.
result 4-day forecasts significantly outperform simple benchmarks.
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,695 papers · 148 categories
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48 results for “forecast quality”
The study analyzes how probabilistic forecasts improve battery trading strategies in electricity markets.
problem Improvements in statistical forecast quality do not directly translate to economic value in battery trading strategies.
method The study frames battery optimization as a stochastic program based on fully probabilistic forecasts and examines decision quality under different uncertainty models.
result The study identifies two critical flaws in quantile-based trading strategies and provides theoretical justification and empirical evidence.
Study compares forecasting methods for logistics time series.
problem Improving forecasting accuracy in logistics.
method Compared statistical and machine learning methods on simulated time series.
result Statistical methods outperformed machine learning in one-step forecasts.
Research predicts rice prices in Banda Aceh post-COVID using ARIMA models.
problem Forecasting rice prices in Banda Aceh post-COVID-19.
method Used LOCF imputation for missing data and auto-ARIMA for forecasting.
result ARIMA model (0,0,5) best for all rice qualities, showing price decline and then stability.
Air quality forecasting has been regarded as the key problem of air pollution early warning and control management. In this paper, we propose a novel deep learning model for air quality (mainly PM2.5) forecasting, which learns the spatial-temporal correlation features and interdependence of multivariate air quality rel…
Statistical and economic evaluation of forecasts in electricity markets: beyond RMSE and MAEq-fin.CP
This paper evaluates forecast quality in electricity markets beyond traditional accuracy measures.
problem Traditional accuracy measures fail to reflect the economic value of electricity price forecasts.
method Investigates four quality dimensions: accuracy, dispersion, association, and extremum identification.
result Dispersion- and association-based measures better capture forecast economic value.
MMformer improves forecasting of environmental time series data.
problem Accurately forecasting environmental change trends for policy-making.
method Meta-learning MTS model combining self-attention and adaptive transferable multi-head attention.
result MMformer outperforms other models in air quality and climate datasets, reducing prediction errors by 50% in MSE and 20% in MAE.
Deep learning improves PV generation quantile forecasting.
problem Accurate probabilistic forecasting of PV generation.
method Developed an encoder-decoder deep learning model for multi-output quantile PV forecasting.
result The model improves forecast quality and computational efficiency.
GraphSVR forecasts urban air pollution robustly across stations and seasons.
problem Nonlinear, nonstationary, spatiotemporally dependent urban air pollution forecasting challenges.
method Combines graph convolutional learning and support vector regression.
result GraphSVR improves predictive accuracy and maintains stable performance across seasons and outlier-prone episodes.
Right Decisions from Wrong Predictions: A Mechanism Design Alternative to Individual Calibrationstat.ML
Proposes a compensation mechanism for improving individual forecast confidence.
problem Difficult to assess the quality of individual probabilistic forecasts and their utilities.
method Compensation mechanism based on fair bets and online learning.
result The proposed mechanism cannot be exploited and ensures forecasted utility matches actual utility.
Neural networks learn from ensemble forecasts without considering their order.
problem Improving reliability of probabilistic weather forecasts.
method Permutation-invariant neural networks for postprocessing ensemble forecasts.
result Models achieve state-of-the-art prediction quality in surface temperature and wind gust forecasts.
Given a nonlinear model, a probabilistic forecast may be obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. At a given forecast horizon, Monte Carlo simulations yield sets of discrete forecasts, which can be converted to density forecasts. The resulting density forecasts will inevitably be downgraded by model mis-specification. In o…
Interpretable additive models outperform complex DL and hybrid pipelines for air quality forecasting.
problem Accurate forecasting of urban air pollution for public health and policy guidance.
method Investigated lightweight additive models (FBP, NP) vs. deep learning and hybrid pipelines on Beijing PM2.5 and PM10 data.
result Facebook Prophet consistently outperformed NeuralProphet and traditional models, achieving high values.
Decision-Focused Fine-Tuning of Time Series Foundation Models for Dispatchable Feeder Optimizationcs.LG
Improved forecast accuracy for energy systems through decision-focused fine-tuning.
problem Challenges in integrating forecast values into time series models for diverse and specific instances.
method Decision-focused fine-tuning within time series foundation models for dispatchable feeder optimization.
result Improvement of 9.45% in average total daily costs.
We propose a betting strategy based on Bayesian logistic regression modeling for the probability forecasting game in the framework of game-theoretic probability by Shafer and Vovk (2001). We prove some results concerning the strong law of large numbers in the probability forecasting game with side information based on …
A new diffusion model improves time-series forecasting by preserving seasonal patterns.
problem Improving time-series forecasting accuracy, especially for seasonal data.
method A forward diffusion process that decomposes signals into spectral components, altering only the diffusion process.
result The method maintains high signal-to-noise ratios for dominant frequencies, improving long-term pattern recovery.
Taleb (2018) claimed a novel approach to evaluating the quality of probabilistic election forecasts via no-arbitrage pricing techniques and argued that popular forecasts of the 2016 U.S. Presidential election had violated arbitrage boundaries. We show that under mild assumptions all such political forecasts are arbitra…
Paper presents a new video generation model using diffusion probabilistic methods.
problem Generating high-quality video sequences.
method Denoising diffusion probabilistic models, autoregressive, end-to-end optimization.
result Significant improvements in perceptual quality and probabilistic frame forecasting.
Quantile gradient boosted trees outperform other models in predicting NO2 concentration distributions.
problem Forecasting high NO2 concentration episodes for effective air quality management.
method Compared 10 probabilistic forecasting models for NO2 concentration prediction.
result Quantile gradient boosted trees model outperformed others in predicting NO2 concentration distributions.
Paper uses Gaussian Processes to monitor air quality in Kampala.
problem Monitoring air pollution in cities with limited sensor coverage.
method Gaussian Processes for nowcasting and forecasting air pollution.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of Gaussian Processes in air quality monitoring.
Inspired from recent insights into the common ground of machine learning, optimization and decision-making, this paper proposes an easy-to-implement, but effective procedure to enhance both the quality of renewable energy forecasts and the competitive edge of renewable energy producers in electricity markets with a dua…
Optimizes trading policies using future price forecasts.
problem Static reinforcement learning agents lack mechanisms for using price forecasts at inference time.
method FPILOT framework inspired by Model Predictive Control (MPC). Uses a predictive model to construct an allocation-based imagined return objective at each decision step.
result Consistent improvements in total return and risk-adjusted metrics across various policy learning algorithms.
Machine learning forecasts show bias at long horizons, contrary to standard tests.
problem Forecast efficiency tests misinterpret machine learning performance.
method Theoretical and empirical analysis of regularization and measurement noise.
result Machine learning forecasts exhibit overreaction at longer horizons, not bias.
Paper presents a copula-based method to efficiently generate correlated sample paths from multi-step time series models.
problem Generating realistic correlation structures in multi-step forecast sample paths is expensive and time-consuming.
method Copula-based approach to generate correlated sample paths in one forward pass.
result Improved sample path quality and significant speedup over autoregressive sampling.
An image-driven approach for time series forecasting.
problem Time-series forecasting as a computer vision task.
method Capture input data as an image and train a model to produce the subsequent image.
result Our method outperforms various baselines, including ARIMA, using image-based evaluation metrics.
Improved forecasting in daily time series competition using a correlator method.
problem Forecasting daily time series with data leakage issues.
method Ensemble of five statistical forecasting methods and a correlator method.
result The correlator method was responsible for most of the gains over naive forecasting.
Neural network predicts daily power consumption with high accuracy.
problem Middle-term power consumption prediction in the energy sector.
method Incorporates trend, seasonality, and weather conditions in a shallow Neural Network.
result Excellent density forecast results on one-year test set.
Do Better Volatility Forecasts Lead to Better Portfolios? Evidence from Graph Neural Networksq-fin.PM
Graph neural networks improve volatility forecasts and portfolio performance.
problem Improving volatility forecasting for better portfolio performance.
method Compared Heterogeneous Autoregressive and Long Short-Term Memory models with GraphSAGE models built on rolling correlation, sector, and Granger-causal graphs.
result GraphSAGE models with macro regime features outperform other models in terms of forecast accuracy, ranking quality, and portfolio Sharpe ratio.
Forecasting Company Fundamentalsq-fin.ST
Deep learning models outperform classical methods in forecasting company fundamentals.
problem Forecasting company fundamentals for investment and econometrics.
method Compared 24 deterministic and probabilistic models on real company data.
result Deep learning models provide superior forecasting performance, especially in uncertainty estimation.
QBSD optimizes KPI forecasting for RAN networks with fast runtime and accuracy.
problem Efficiently forecasting KPIs for RAN networks with dynamic operating ranges.
method Quartile-Based Seasonality Decomposition (QBSD) for live single-step forecasting.
result QBSD outperforms other methods in runtime efficiency and forecast accuracy.
This note investigates the causes of the quality anomaly, which is one of the strongest and most scalable anomalies in equity markets. We explore two potential explanations. The "risk view", whereby investing in high quality firms is somehow riskier, so that the higher returns of a quality portfolio are a compensation …
This paper presents a convolutional neural network (CNN) which can be used for forecasting electricity load profiles 36 hours into the future. In contrast to well established CNN architectures, the input data is one-dimensional. A parameter scanning of network parameters is conducted in order to gain information about …
A shallow Bi-LSTM model forecasts Bitcoin prices using engineered features.
problem Lack of high-quality historical Bitcoin data for deep learning models.
method Proposed a shallow Bi-LSTM model with feature engineering on Bitcoin data.
result A shallow deep neural network outperforms other models in Bitcoin price forecasting.
Fidel-TS creates a new benchmark for time series forecasting models.
problem Lack of high-quality benchmarks for time series forecasting models.
method Formalized high-fidelity benchmark principles, including data sourcing integrity, leak-free design, and structural clarity. Created Fidel-TS, a new large-scale benchmark.
result Demonstrated the limitations of prior benchmarks and potential discrepancies in model evaluation.
Using Recurrent Neural Networks To Forecasting of Forexcond-mat.dis-nn
This paper reports empirical evidence that a neural networks model is applicable to the statistically reliable prediction of foreign exchange rates. Time series data and technical indicators such as moving average, are fed to neural nets to capture the underlying "rules" of the movement in currency exchange rates. The …
A new model validation framework for agentic AI systems based on POMDPs.
problem Model validation of agentic AI systems.
method A POMDP-based framework for belief-state, forecast, and policy validation.
result The framework decomposes autonomous decision making into information, beliefs, forecasts, actions, and utility.
Leasing is a popular channel to market new cars. Pricing a leasing contract is complicated because the leasing rate embodies an expectation of the residual value of the car after contract expiration. To aid lessors in their pricing decisions, the paper develops resale price forecasting models. A peculiarity of the leas…
The paper proposes a method to improve sales forecasts by selecting optimal reference classes.
problem Improving forecasts of sales growth exposed to behavioural bias.
method Finding optimal reference classes for each company based on specific predictors and matching forecast distributions to actual sales.
result The past operating margins are strong predictors for future sales distributions.
The study forecasts water quality from satellite data using machine learning.
problem Predicting future water quality from satellite data for coastal regions.
method Decomposed time series into components and used machine learning models (SARIMA, regression, neural network).
result Regression and neural network models are best at predicting Chl-a, SARIMA model best at FLH and SST.
NeuralProphet improves forecast accuracy by 55-92% for short-term forecasts.
problem Challenges in explainable, scalable forecasting for business decisions.
method Hybrid framework combining classical methods and deep learning, with auto-regression and covariate modules.
result NeuralProphet outperforms Prophet on real-world datasets and short-term forecasts.
Proposes a value-oriented forecast reconciliation method for renewables in electricity markets.
problem Forecast reconciliation overlooks the value of forecasts in decision-making, leading to unfair outcomes.
method Value-oriented forecast reconciliation using a Nash bargaining framework and a primal-dual algorithm for parameter estimation.
result Consistently increases profits for all agents involved in an aggregated wind energy trading problem.
LSTM outperforms traditional models in forecasting international migration.
problem Precise forecasting of international migration for policymaking.
method Replaced a gravity linear model with an LSTM approach using Google Trends data.
result LSTM approach combined with Google Trends data outperforms existing models.
Point forecasting of univariate time series is a challenging problem with extensive work having been conducted. However, nonparametric probabilistic forecasting of time series, such as in the form of quantiles or prediction intervals is an even more challenging problem. In an effort to expand the possible forecasting p…
Sparse and short news headlines can be arbitrary, noisy, and ambiguous, making it difficult for classic topic model LDA (latent Dirichlet allocation) designed for accommodating long text to discover knowledge from them. Nonetheless, some of the existing research about text-based crude oil forecasting employs LDA to exp…
The key contribution of this paper is to propose a classification into two dimensions of the load forecasting studies to decide which forecasting tools to use in which case. This classification aims to provide a synthetic view of the relevant forecasting techniques and methodologies by forecasting problem. In addition,…
Paper benchmarks CF mitigation in federated time series forecasting.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in federated learning for time series forecasting.
method Comprehensive evaluation of CF mitigation strategies in federated time series forecasting.
result Introduction of a new benchmark for CF in time series federated learning.
LightGBM outperforms other models in predicting pH values in Georgia, USA.
problem Accurate water quality prediction for effective resource management and pollution mitigation.
method Five distinct predictive models (linear regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, MLP neural network) were assessed for pH value forecasting in Georgia, USA.
result LightGBM achieved the highest average precision in predicting pH values.
Rainfall ensemble forecasts have to be skillful for both low precipitation and extreme events. We present statistical post-processing methods based on Quantile Regression Forests (QRF) and Gradient Forests (GF) with a parametric extension for heavy-tailed distributions. Our goal is to improve ensemble quality for all t…