Dockless bike sharing systems need effective bike flow prediction models.
problem Imbalanced and dynamic use of bikes leads to mandatory rebalancing operations.
method Divide urban area into regions, model spatio-temporal bike flows, extract traffic patterns, and predict bike flows.
result Interpretable bike flow prediction model provides valuable insights into bike flow analysis.
Proposes a method to apply conformal prediction to probabilistic time series forecasting models.
problem Obtaining accurate prediction regions for multi-step time series forecasting with probabilistic models.
method Conformalises conditional normalising flows to generate potentially disjoint prediction regions.
result Improves predictive efficiency in time series forecasting with multimodal distributions.
Contrast uses normalizing flows to create precise prediction regions for multi-dimensional outputs.
problem Generating reliable prediction regions for multi-dimensional outputs in supervised and unsupervised learning.
method Contrast uses normalizing flows to define nonconformity scores based on distances in latent space, creating sharp prediction regions.
result Contrast maintains guaranteed coverage probability and outperforms existing methods in generating accurate prediction regions.
In its simplest form, the traffic flow prediction problem is restricted to predicting a single time-step into the future. Multi-step traffic flow prediction extends this set-up to the case where predicting multiple time-steps into the future based on some finite history is of interest. This problem is significantly mor…
Urban spatial-temporal flows prediction is of great importance to traffic management, land use, public safety, etc. Urban flows are affected by several complex and dynamic factors, such as patterns of human activities, weather, events and holidays. Datasets evaluated the flows come from various sources in different dom…
One fundamental issue in managing bike sharing systems is the bike flow prediction. Due to the hardness of predicting the flow for a single station, recent research works often predict the bike flow at cluster-level. While such studies gain satisfactory prediction accuracy, they cannot directly guide some fine-grained …
Diverging Flows detects extrapolations in flow models, ensuring reliable predictions.
problem Flow models extrapolate into invalid data, leading to silent failures.
method Structurally enforce inefficient transport for off-manifold inputs.
result Effective detection of extrapolations without compromising predictive fidelity or inference latency.
PO-Flow models potential and counterfactual outcomes for personalized treatment decisions.
problem Predicting individualized treatment effects from observational data.
method Continuous normalizing flow (CNF) framework for causal inference.
result Unified approach to potential outcome prediction, treatment effect estimation, and counterfactual prediction.
Neural networks predict flow and elastic stresses in viscoelastic turbulence.
problem Predicting flow and elastic stresses in viscoelastic turbulent flows using limited experimental data.
method Convolutional neural networks trained on wall-normal velocity and pressure data.
result Neural networks accurately predict flow and elastic stresses, especially during low-drag events.
JAPAN uses flow-based models to create adaptive prediction areas with better coverage guarantees.
problem Inadequate prediction areas from existing conformal prediction methods, especially for multimodal distributions.
method JAPAN employs density-based conformity scores using flow-based models to construct context-adaptive prediction areas.
result JAPAN produces more accurate and context-adaptive prediction areas compared to existing methods.
FCI method uses flow-based techniques to improve prediction confidence.
problem Limited applicability of exchangeable assumptions in predicting contaminated data.
method Adversarial flow to transform data into known distributions, then map to low-dimensional space.
result FCI produces effective predictive sets and accurate outlier detection.
Efficiently samples conformal boundaries in high dimensions using flows.
problem Difficulty in interpreting and using prediction sets in high-dimensional or structured output spaces.
method Flow-based approach using differentiable nonconformity scores to induce deterministic flows on the output space.
result Sampling conformal boundaries in arbitrary dimensions becomes computationally efficient and training-free.
TD-Flow improves long-term predictions in agent learning.
problem Cumulative errors in step-by-step inference of future states.
method Leverages flow-matching techniques and a novel Bellman equation to learn accurate geometric horizon models.
result Significantly reduces errors at long horizons compared to prior methods.
Autoregressive flow models can perform causal discovery and inference tasks.
problem Causal inference tasks such as causal discovery and interventional predictions.
method Using autoregressive flow models to estimate causal directions and make predictions.
result Autoregressive flows can accurately perform causal inference tasks without restrictive assumptions.
Neural networks predict traffic flow in smart cities.
problem Forecasting stochastic and nonlinear traffic flow.
method Various recurrent neural networks trained on intersection data.
result Vector output model with gated recurrent units performed best.
In this paper a data analytical approach featuring support vector machines (SVM) is employed to train a predictive model over an experimentaldataset, which consists of the most relevant studies for two-phase flow pattern prediction. The database for this study consists of flow patterns or flow regimes in gas-liquid two…
Predicts short-term futures contract direction using neural networks and order flow data.
problem Challenges in predicting short-term directional movement of futures contracts.
method Engineering features from technical analysis, order flow, and order-book data; training a Tabnet neural network.
result Achieved an accuracy of 0.601 in predicting directional change on the Silver Futures Contract.
Paper predicts international trade flows using machine learning and factorization models.
problem Predicting international bilateral trade flows with PTAs.
method Two-stage approach combining SHAP Explainer and Factorization Machine models.
result Enhanced predictive accuracy and deeper insights into trade dynamics.
Making predictions of future frames is a critical challenge in autonomous driving research. Most of the existing methods for video prediction attempt to generate future frames in simple and fixed scenes. In this paper, we propose a novel and effective optical flow conditioned method for the task of video prediction wit…
While deep learning has shown tremendous success in a wide range of domains, it remains a grand challenge to incorporate physical principles in a systematic manner to the design, training, and inference of such models. In this paper, we aim to predict turbulent flow by learning its highly nonlinear dynamics from spatio…
MIP framework improves urban flow prediction by adapting to distribution shifts.
problem Distribution shifts in urban flow data make prediction models unreliable.
method Memory-enhanced Invariant Prompt learning with learnable memory bank.
result MIP ensures robust predictions by focusing on invariant features.
Discrete Flow Maps bypass sequential prediction limits for parallel text generation.
problem Sequential autoregressive prediction limits large language model speed.
method Flow Maps compress generative trajectories into single-step mappings.
result Discrete Flow Maps surpass previous state-of-the-art results in discrete flow modeling.
Causal autoregressive flows enable accurate causal inference and prediction.
problem Causal discovery and interventional predictions in machine learning.
method Autoregressive normalizing flows with fixed variable orderings.
result Causal models derived from autoregressive flows are identifiable and allow for accurate interventional and counterfactual predictions.
Normalizing Flows improve prediction interval efficiency in CP.
problem Inefficient prediction intervals in CP due to non-uniform error distribution.
method Train a Normalizing Flow to optimize the distance metric between errors and inputs.
result Optimized prediction intervals are more efficient and valid.
The paper predicts Bitcoin volatility using order flow images.
problem Predicting short-term volatility of Bitcoin prices.
method Transformed order flow data into images, trained CNN and ResNet models.
result Order flow representation with CNN achieves best performance, with RMSPE of 0.85+/-1.1.
As a crucial component in intelligent transportation systems, traffic flow prediction has recently attracted widespread research interest in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) with the increasing availability of massive traffic mobility data. Its key challenge lies in how to integrate diverse factors (such as te…
FedGRU uses federated learning to predict traffic flow accurately while preserving user privacy.
problem Developing accurate traffic flow prediction while protecting user privacy.
method Federated Learning, Secure Parameter Aggregation, Joint Announcement Protocol, Ensemble Clustering.
result FedGRU achieves 90.96% higher prediction accuracy than advanced deep learning models.
Traffic flow prediction is crucial for urban traffic management and public safety. Its key challenges lie in how to adaptively integrate the various factors that affect the flow changes. In this paper, we propose a unified neural network module to address this problem, called Attentive Crowd Flow Machine~(ACFM), which …
New model predicts radiative properties of nanoparticle layers with high accuracy and uncertainty.
problem Predicting radiative properties of nanoparticle embedded layers accurately and with uncertainty.
method Conditional normalizing flows learn conditional distributions of optical outputs given input parameters.
result The model achieves high predictive accuracy and reliable uncertainty estimates.
Proposes a probabilistic approach to semi-supervised learning using normalizing flows.
problem Leveraging unlabelled data for semi-supervised learning with limited labelled data.
method Uses a normalizing flow to learn the posterior distribution over predictions for labelled data, serving as a prior for unlabelled data.
result Demonstrates improved performance on various tasks with varying output complexity.
Deep learning predicts fluid flow in porous media, accelerating simulations by orders of magnitude.
problem Accurate simulation of fluid flow in complex porous media requires excessive computational resources.
method Combining deep learning with direct simulation, using Gated U-Net CNNs trained on datasets of 2D and 3D porous media.
result Deep learning predictions can reach over 90% accuracy for permeability estimation and accelerate simulations by orders of magnitude.
This paper explains how predictable order flow can lead to Brownian motion in financial prices.
problem Why financial prices exhibit Brownian motion despite predictable order flow.
method Generalized Lillo-Mike-Farmer model to nonlinear price-impact dynamics, mapping to Lévy-walk model.
result Price dynamics remain diffusive under the square-root law, even with persistent order flow.
New method for time series prediction with uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification for multi-dimensional time series predictions.
method Flow-based conformal prediction for time series.
result Significantly smaller prediction sets with target coverage.
Stable long-term predictions for fluid flows using neural networks.
problem Predicting complex dynamics of fluid flows with high temporal stability.
method End-to-end trained neural network architecture combining CNN for spatial compression and LSTM for temporal prediction.
result Novel latent space subdivision (LSS) allows stable and controllable long-term predictions.
The prediction of the gas production from mature gas wells, due to their complex end-of-life behavior, is challenging and crucial for operational decision making. In this paper, we apply a modified deep LSTM model for prediction of the gas flow rates in mature gas wells, including the uncertainties in input parameters.…
Paper develops models to forecast private equity fund cash flows.
problem Limited literature on illiquid alternative asset cash flow forecasting.
method Develops benchmark model and two novel approaches (direct vs. indirect) using LSTM/GRU models and macroeconomic indicators.
result Direct model performs better and aligns with actual cash flows, but indirect model's performance is less clear.
Study uses neural networks to predict wall quantities in turbulent flows.
problem Predicting wall quantities in turbulent open channel flows.
method Training convolutional neural networks (FCN) and a proposed R-Net architecture to predict wall-shear-stress and wall pressure.
result R-Net architecture performs better and predicts wall quantities with around 10% error.
The expected low market penetration of connected vehicles (CVs) in the near future could be a constraint in estimating traffic flow parameters, such as average travel speed of a roadway segment and average space headway between vehicles from the CV broadcasted data. This estimated traffic flow parameters from low penet…
Predicts traffic flow using reinforcement learning and sensor data.
problem Accurately predict expanding and evolving long-term streaming traffic networks.
method Formulates the problem as a continuous reinforcement learning task, where the agent predicts future traffic based on sensor data.
result The approach improves accuracy in predicting traffic flow by updating the agent's state representation over time.
Advances in computational science offer a principled pipeline for predictive modeling of cardiovascular flows and aspire to provide a valuable tool for monitoring, diagnostics and surgical planning. Such models can be nowadays deployed on large patient-specific topologies of systemic arterial networks and return detail…
In financial markets, the order flow, defined as the process assuming value one for buy market orders and minus one for sell market orders, displays a very slowly decaying autocorrelation function. Since orders impact prices, reconciling the persistence of the order flow with market efficiency is a subtle issue. A poss…
A novel spatio-temporal graph neural network with a learnable Tweedie head improves vessel traffic flow prediction in sparse maritime data.
problem Accurate vessel traffic flow prediction in sparse maritime data.
method A model-agnostic learnable Tweedie head attached to ST-GNN backbones.
result The proposed head consistently improves RMSE across multiple ST-GNN backbones, especially on non-zero events.
OpFlow predicts robust OD flows by learning choice potentials conditioned on spatial exposures.
problem Deep models trained on raw counts are vulnerable to distribution shift.
method OpFlow learns row-centered choice potentials and reconstructs flows by combining them with a calibrated origin scale.
result OpFlow improves robustness under environment shifts, as shown by controlled synthetic shifts and a real-world experiment.
Congestion prediction represents a major priority for traffic management centres around the world to ensure timely incident response handling. The increasing amounts of generated traffic data have been used to train machine learning predictors for traffic, however this is a challenging task due to inter-dependencies of…
Traffic flow forecasting is hot spot research of intelligent traffic system construction. The existing traffic flow prediction methods have problems such as poor stability, high data requirements, or poor adaptability. In this paper, we define the traffic data time singularity ratio in the dropout module and propose a …
A new method for predicting uncertainties in stream networks.
problem Uncertainty quantification in spatiotemporal graphs with directional flow constraints.
method Spatio-Temporal Adaptive Conformal Inference (STACI) integrating network topology and temporal dynamics.
result STACI effectively balances prediction efficiency and coverage, outperforming existing methods.
Simple feature engineering beats complex models in financial prediction.
problem Understanding when complex models outperform simple alternatives in financial prediction.
method Independent Component Analysis (ICA), Wavelet Coherence, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks with attention mechanisms.
result A simple linear model using normalized flows achieves superior returns compared to complex models.
Improved stock price prediction model using generalized order flow imbalance.
problem Improving stock price prediction models using new order flow imbalance indicators.
method Proposed a generalized order flow imbalance construction method and applied it to CSI 500 stocks.
result Generalized Stationarized Order Flow Imbalance (log-GOFI) shows significant improvement in explaining stock price changes.