Flexible evidential deep learning improves uncertainty quantification in machine learning.
problem Overconfident predictions in machine learning models can lead to serious consequences.
method Proposes flexible evidential deep learning (F-EDL) to model uncertainty over class probabilities using a flexible Dirichlet distribution.
result Empirically demonstrates state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification performance across diverse scenarios.
Bayesian model improves classification performance with flexible uncertainty modeling.
problem Improving classification performance with flexible uncertainty modeling.
method Combines Gaussian process and Dirichlet process priors for latent function and link function, respectively.
result Outperforms standard logistic regression on simulated data.
Proposes measures for uncertainty quantification using proper scoring rules.
problem Uncertainty quantification for prediction tasks.
method Decomposes proper scoring rules into divergence and entropy components, tailoring uncertainty quantification to specific tasks.
result Flexibility in uncertainty quantification improves performance in selective prediction and active learning.
New framework quantifies uncertainty in flexible density-based clustering.
problem Uncertainty quantification in clustering with non-parametric density estimation.
method Martingale posterior distributions and density-based clustering.
result Efficient GPU-compatible inference on clustering structures with uncertainty.
The paper argues that uncertainty quantification in ML is application-specific and proposes a flexible family of measures.
problem The need for proper uncertainty quantification in machine learning for safety-critical applications.
method A flexible family of uncertainty measures tailored to specific applications, using proper scoring rules to control characteristics.
result Different uncertainty measures are more suitable for different tasks (e.g., selective prediction, out-of-distribution detection, active learning).
High-risk domains require reliable confidence estimates from predictive models. Deep latent variable models provide these, but suffer from the rigid variational distributions used for tractable inference, which err on the side of overconfidence. We propose Stochastic Quantized Activation Distributions (SQUAD), which im…
Study highlights how model choice affects uncertainty estimation in neural network regression.
problem Uncertainty estimation under model misspecification in neural network regression.
method Analyzed the impact of model choice on uncertainty estimation in neural network regression, focusing on aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
result Model misspecification leads to unreliable uncertainty estimates, highlighting the importance of choosing appropriate models.
Gradient Boosted Mixed Models estimate mean and variance components for clustered data.
problem Limited flexibility in linear mixed models for complex settings.
method Gradient Boosting extended to mixed models with likelihood-based gradients and flexible base learners.
result Accurate recovery of variance components and improved predictive accuracy.
Efficiently marginalizes over Gaussian Process kernels for better model flexibility and uncertainty.
problem Inefficient marginalization over Gaussian Process kernels for large datasets.
method Bayesian Quadrature scheme with maximum mean discrepancies and invariances between Spectral Mixture kernels.
result Achieves more accurate predictions and better calibrated uncertainty than state-of-the-art baselines.
DUNs improve active learning by dynamically adjusting model complexity.
problem Active learning datasets grow, leading to model bias or overfitting.
method Depth Uncertainty Networks (DUNs) infer model depth for flexibility and complexity.
result DUNs outperform other BNN variants on active learning tasks, reducing overfitting.
Paper tackles uncertainty prediction for deep sequential regression.
problem Challenges in generating accurate uncertainty estimates for deep recurrent networks.
method Flexible method that generates symmetric and asymmetric uncertainty estimates without stationarity assumptions.
result Outperforms competitive baselines on both drift and non-drift scenarios.
Neural network based generative models with discriminative components are a powerful approach for semi-supervised learning. However, these techniques a) cannot account for model uncertainty in the estimation of the model's discriminative component and b) lack flexibility to capture complex stochastic patterns in the la…
New method assesses financial and cyber risks under uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in risk assessment for financial and cyber systems.
method Combines stochastic approximation and distorted mix method to compute worst case average value at risk.
result Efficient algorithm for tail uncertainty in multivariate distributions.
Improved asset pricing using uncertainty-adjusted sorting in machine learning models.
problem Ignoring asset-specific estimation uncertainty in portfolio construction.
method Uncertainty-adjusted prediction bounds for sorting assets.
result Improves portfolio performance across various ML models and equity panels.
ARO overfits by making constraints dependent on uncertainty, leading to brittleness.
problem ARO's adaptive policies become brittle when realizations fall outside the uncertainty set.
method Assigning constraint-specific uncertainty set sizes with probabilistic guarantees.
result Regularization through specific uncertainty set sizes ensures stability and flexibility.
Framework for pricing waterfall structures using simulation and uncertainty modeling.
problem Pricing complex structured finance instruments under uncertainty.
method Simulation-based uncertainty modeling, calibrated probability distributions, PyTorch implementation, Adjoint Algorithmic Differentiation (AAD).
result Efficient gradient computation for risk sensitivity analysis and optimization.
Enhances reinforcement learning uncertainty estimation with a generalized Gaussian error model.
problem Inaccurate error representations and compromised uncertainty estimation in conventional uncertainty-aware TD learning.
method Introduces a novel framework for generalized Gaussian error modeling in deep reinforcement learning, incorporating higher-order moments, particularly kurtosis, to improve uncertainty estimation and mitigation.
result Significant performance gains in policy gradient algorithms with the proposed framework.
Bayesian neural networks improve uncertainty estimates and sparsity.
problem Overfitting and lack of uncertainty estimates in neural networks.
method LBBNN with LRT and normalizing flows for more flexible variational posterior.
result Improved predictive power and more sparse networks.
This work introduces uncertainty principles to mitigate Maximal Extractable Value in blockchain systems.
problem Maximal Extractable Value (MEV) in decentralized systems due to transaction submission privacy and monopolist power.
method Unified approaches via uncertainty principles, akin to harmonic analysis and physics, to quantify trade-offs between transaction flexibility and user economic payoff.
result Demonstrates a quantitative trade-off between transaction flexibility and user economic payoff, analogous to the Nyquist-Shannon sampling theorem.
This paper introduces VI for physics-informed deep learning, enhancing uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification in physics-informed deep learning.
method Variational inference for generative and inverse problems.
result VI provides a flexible and scalable approach for physics-based inference.
MCNet improves uncertainty calibration in online advertising by modeling complex relations and balancing performance.
problem Lack of effective calibration for complex relations and context features in online advertising.
method Introduces MCNet with MCF, order-preserving, and field-balance regularizers.
result Superior performance in generating well-calibrated probability predictions on public and industrial datasets.
VSPS creates flexible prediction regions for multi-target regression with guaranteed coverage.
problem Uncertainty quantification in multi-target regression with complex distributions.
method Conditional normalizing flows with conformal calibration to identify dense regions.
result VSPS produces smaller, more informative prediction regions with robust coverage guarantees.
Bayesian Gaussian Process ODEs enhanced with normalizing flows for improved flexibility and accuracy.
problem Limitations of standard Gaussian Process ODEs in modeling complex scenarios.
method Introducing normalizing flows to reparameterize the ODE vector field, developing a data-driven variational learning algorithm.
result Improved accuracy and uncertainty estimates for Bayesian Gaussian Process ODEs.
While Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) hold the promise of being flexible, well-calibrated statistical models, inference often requires approximations whose consequences are poorly understood. We study the quality of common variational methods in approximating the Bayesian predictive distribution. For single-hidden laye…
Uncertainty quantification has been a core of the statistical machine learning, but its computational bottleneck has been a serious challenge for both Bayesians and frequentists. We propose a model-based framework in quantifying uncertainty, called predictive-matching Generative Parameter Sampler (GPS). This procedure …
Bayesian neural networks with latent variables are scalable and flexible probabilistic models: They account for uncertainty in the estimation of the network weights and, by making use of latent variables, can capture complex noise patterns in the data. We show how to extract and decompose uncertainty into epistemic and…
Hi-fi priors enhance BNNs by learning flexible activations.
problem Challenging to impose function-space priors on BNNs.
method Optimization techniques to learn flexible activations.
result BNNs with flexible activations can achieve desired priors.
Gaussian processes model geospatial trajectories with uncertainty.
problem Interpolating and predicting complex spatiotemporal data.
method Gaussian process models trajectories as multidimensional Gaussian distributions.
result Gaussian processes provide a flexible and probabilistic way to interpolate geospatial data.
Combines BART and Gaussian process for spatial covariate prediction with uncertainty.
problem Improving spatial prediction models with nonlinear and interaction covariates.
method Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) combined with Gaussian process for spatial dependence.
result Effective in reducing computational burden through INLA and MCMC.
We propose a design for schedule-based execution trading strategies based on uncertainty bands. This formulation: 1) simplifies strategy specification and implementation; 2) provides for flexible allocation among passive, opportunistic, aggressive, and dark pool crossing execution tactics; 3) allows for rapid enhanceme…
The ACCRU framework improves probabilistic forecasts by capturing input-dependent uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in deterministic predictions, especially for skewed and non-Gaussian errors.
method Neural network trained with a loss function balancing accuracy and reliability to learn input-dependent, non-Gaussian uncertainty distributions.
result Improves probabilistic forecasts relative to existing methods, capturing skewed and non-Gaussian errors.
New methods accelerate NCGP inference by trading computation for uncertainty.
problem Prohibitively expensive exact inference in NCGPs for large datasets.
method Iterative methods explicitly modeling approximation error, leveraging parallel computing.
result Significant acceleration of posterior inference compared to baselines.
EDICT learns evidential distributions for irregular time series, improving predictions and uncertainty quantification.
problem Challenges in predicting and characterizing uncertainty for irregular time series data.
method EDICT (Evidential Distributions for Irregular Time Series) learns a continuous-time evidential distribution.
result EDICT achieves competitive performance on time series classification tasks and provides better uncertainty quantification.
PSI models and infers feature attributions efficiently and accurately.
problem Modeling and inferring feature attributions in flexible predictive models.
method Probabilistic Shapley inference (PSI) framework using latent random variables and a masking-based neural network architecture.
result PSI learns feature attribution distributions centered at Shapley values, revealing meaningful uncertainty.
CUQ-GNN adapts uncertainty quantification for graph data, improving on GPN.
problem Defining meaningful uncertainty on graph data with domain-specific characteristics.
method Combines Graph Neural Networks with Posterior Networks using Normalizing Flows.
result CUQ-GNN produces more flexible and effective uncertainty estimates.
Paper proposes a robust hypothesis testing method using Sinkhorn distance.
problem Hypothesis testing for small samples.
method Data-driven approach using Sinkhorn uncertainty sets.
result The method provides a more flexible detector compared to Wasserstein robust test.
Modern neural networks tend to be overconfident on unseen, noisy or incorrectly labelled data and do not produce meaningful uncertainty measures. Bayesian deep learning aims to address this shortcoming with variational approximations (such as Bayes by Backprop or Multiplicative Normalising Flows). However, current appr…
Proposes a Bayesian framework for causal inference without explicit likelihood modeling.
problem Challenges in principled Bayesian inference for causal effects.
method Generalized Bayesian framework that places priors directly on causal estimands and updates using identification-driven loss functions.
result Yields generalized posteriors for causal effects with uncertainty quantification.
This work tackles uncertainty quantification in tomography reconstruction.
problem Ill-posed nature of tomographic reconstruction leading to no unique solution.
method Gaussian process modeling to incorporate prior knowledge and experimental noises.
result Efficient uncertainty quantification in tomographic reconstruction.
Flexible VAEs using FIFs improve model likelihood on image datasets.
problem Limitations of diagonal Gaussian posteriors in VAEs.
method Regularized Free-form Injective Flow (FIF) for flexible posterior.
result Full covariance VAEs outperform diagonal Gaussian posteriors.
The ultimate goal of optimization is to find the minimizer of a target function.However, typical criteria for active optimization often ignore the uncertainty about the minimizer. We propose a novel criterion for global optimization and an associated sequential active learning strategy using Gaussian processes.Our crit…
A scalable framework uses Langevin sampling to approximate neural network models of evolving processes.
problem Uncertainty quantification in neural network models of dynamic systems.
method Flexible data model based on NODE, joint learning of data model and posterior parameters, Langevin sampling.
result Demonstrated performance on chemical reaction and material physics data, compared favorably to variational inference.
Post-hoc uncertainty quantification improves on pre-trained neural networks without underfitting.
problem Uncertainty quantification in neural networks is underfitting or computationally demanding.
method Gaussian Process Activation function (GAPA) for neuron-level uncertainty, with two methods: GAPA-Free and GAPA-Variational.
result GAPA-Variational outperforms Laplace approximation on most datasets in uncertainty quantification metrics.
New method attributes feature uncertainty in ML models using cooperative game theory.
problem Lack of feature-level uncertainty attribution in explainable AI.
method Proposes a novel, model-agnostic uncertainty attribution method using cooperative game theory and conformal prediction.
result Demonstrates improved runtime efficiency and practical utility in real-world applications.
Proposes a new method for localized uncertainty quantification in random forests using proximity measures.
problem Localized uncertainty quantification in random forests for improved reliability of predictions.
method Forming localized distributions of Out-Of-Bag (OOB) errors around nearby points defined by similarity measures (proximities) to create prediction intervals for regression and trust scores for classification.
result Localized prediction intervals and trust scores enhance model accuracy and provide higher accuracy-rejection AUC scores than competing methods.
Unified predictive uncertainty disentangled using deep split ensembles.
problem Understanding and quantifying uncertainty in NNs for real-world applications.
method Deep split ensemble approach using multivariate Gaussian mixture model.
result Inherently well-calibrated models with high flexibility to group features.
Variational Bayesian neural networks combine the flexibility of deep learning with Bayesian uncertainty estimation. However, inference procedures for flexible variational posteriors are computationally expensive. A recently proposed method, noisy natural gradient, is a surprisingly simple method to fit expressive poste…
Generative Score Inference improves uncertainty quantification for multimodal data.
problem Accurate uncertainty quantification in multimodal learning tasks.
method Generative Score Inference (GSI) uses synthetic samples to approximate conditional score distributions.
result GSI achieves state-of-the-art performance in hallucination detection and image captioning uncertainty estimation.