Research
On-device research index

arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

Trend · papers per month

149298446595 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for flexible prediction bands

Two conformal methods create flexible conditional predictive bands without strong assumptions.

problem Achieving asymptotic conditional coverage without strong dependence assumptions.
method Flexible distribution-free conditional predictive bands using density estimators.
result Methods achieve better control of conditional coverage and smaller length than previous methods.

Method predicts biomarker trajectories with uncertainty bands for Alzheimer's disease.

problem Uncertainty in biomarker predictions poses risks in clinical deployment.
method Conformal prediction for randomly-timed biomarker trajectories.
result Conformal bands achieve desired coverage and are tighter than baseline.

In this paper we study geometric, algebraic, and computational aspects of flexibility and infinitesimal flexibility of Kokotsakis meshes. A Kokotsakis mesh is a mesh that consists of a face in the middle and a certain band of faces attached to the middle face by its perimeter. In particular any 3x3-mesh made of quadran…

2008-12-16abs ↗pdf ↗

In cellular systems, the user equipment (UE) can request a change in the frequency band when its rate drops below a threshold on the current band. The UE is then instructed by the base station (BS) to measure the quality of candidate bands, which requires a measurement gap in the data transmission, thus lowering the da…

2019-10-02abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper proposes a method to estimate confidence bands for survival random forests.

problem No statistically valid and computationally feasible approach for estimating confidence bands for survival random forests.
method Extending recent developments in infinite-order incomplete U-statistics, the paper proposes an unbiased confidence band estimation.
result The proposed method accurately estimates the confidence band and achieves desired coverage rate.

This paper applies conformal prediction techniques to compute simultaneous prediction bands and clustering trees for functional data. These tools can be used to detect outliers and clusters. Both our prediction bands and clustering trees provide prediction sets for the underlying stochastic process with a guaranteed fi…

2013-02-26abs ↗pdf ↗

We develop a general framework for distribution-free predictive inference in regression, using conformal inference. The proposed methodology allows for the construction of a prediction band for the response variable using any estimator of the regression function. The resulting prediction band preserves the consistency …

2016-04-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper proposes a smart neck-band for detecting neck postures using integrated kinematic and kinetic data.

problem Improper neck postures lead to musculoskeletal disorders requiring therapy and rehabilitation.
method Integrated use of kinematic and kinetic data with machine learning algorithms.
result 100% accuracy in predicting neck postures using the proposed platform.

CP-ROC bands improve graph classification accuracy and uncertainty quantification.

problem Uncertainty quantification and robustness to distributional shifts in graph classification.
method Conditional Prediction ROC (CP-ROC) bands for graph classification, developed for TGNNs and adaptable to GNNs.
result Statistically guaranteed coverage for CP-ROC under local exchangeability condition, improving prediction reliability.

Every link is shown to be presentable as a boundary of an unknotted flat banded surface. A (flat) banded link is defined as a boundary of an unknotted (flat) banded surface. A link's (flat) band index is defined as the minimum number of bands required to present the link as boundaries of an unknotted (flat) banded surf…

2011-04-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Data-driven approach discovers molecular photoswitches with separated electronic absorption bands.

problem Engineering photoswitchable molecules with specific electronic absorption bands remains challenging.
method Data-driven discovery pipeline using Gaussian processes for multitask learning.
result Multioutput Gaussian process (MOGP) trained on four photoswitch transition wavelengths outperforms single-task models and TD-DFT.

New method for accurate uncertainty estimation in deep learning predictions.

problem Insufficient methods for assessing prediction uncertainty in deep learning.
method Valid non-parametric bootstrap method for deep neural networks.
result Accurate confidence intervals and simultaneous confidence bands for survival data.

New method for uncertainty analysis in TabPFN, a state-of-the-art tabular transformer.

problem No method for uncertainty decomposition in TabPFN.
method Casted as a Bayesian predictive inference problem, derived variance estimators using predictive CLT.
result Fast to compute credible bands that target epistemic uncertainty and achieve near-nominal frequentist coverage.

The goal of this study is to explain and examine the statistical underpinnings of the Bollinger Band methodology. We start off by elucidating the rolling regression time series model and deriving its explicit relationship to Bollinger Bands. Next we illustrate the use of Bollinger Bands in pairs trading and prove the e…

2012-12-20abs ↗pdf ↗

UTOPIA aggregates multiple prediction intervals efficiently.

problem Constructing optimal prediction intervals for various real-world data problems.
method UTOPIA is a universally trainable strategy using linear or convex programming.
result UTOPIA constructs prediction intervals with small average width and high coverage probability.

We give a short proof that if a non-trivial band sum of two knots results in a tight fibered knot, then the band sum is a connected sum. In particular, this means that any prime knot obtained by a non-trivial band sum is not tight fibered. Since a positive L-space knot is tight fibered, a non-trivial band sum never yie…

2015-09-01abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper creates nonparametric confidence bands for band-limited functions.

problem Estimating confidence bands for band-limited functions with finite samples and unknown noise.
method Uses Paley-Wiener reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces and gradient-perturbation methods.
result Non-asymptotic guarantees for confidence regions without assuming a parametric model.

New method finds arbitrage opportunities in fluctuating asset bands.

problem Finding arbitrage opportunities in fluctuating asset bands.
method Formulate as maximizing volatility within a price band, using convex-concave optimization.
result Approximately solves non-convex optimization problem for moving-band arbitrage.

Every classical knot is band-pass equivalent to the unknot or the trefoil. The band-pass class of a knot is a concordance invariant. Every ribbon knot, for example, is band-pass equivalent to the unknot. Here we introduce the long virtual knot concordance group VC\mathscr{VC}. It is shown that for every concordance cla…

2016-03-01abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper improves nonparametric confidence bands for band-limited functions.

problem Constructing nonparametric simultaneous confidence bands with nonasymptotic and distribition-free guarantees.
method Based on Paley-Wiener reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, the paper relaxes assumptions, improves noise estimation, and tightens constraints.
result Enhanced confidence bands with improved efficiency and tighter constraints.

We introduce a new sparse estimator of the covariance matrix for high-dimensional models in which the variables have a known ordering. Our estimator, which is the solution to a convex optimization problem, is equivalently expressed as an estimator which tapers the sample covariance matrix by a Toeplitz, sparsely-banded…

2014-05-23abs ↗pdf ↗