A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Revisits granular models explaining firm growth rates and sizes.
This study assesses how share capital affects financial growth of non-financial firms listed at NSE.
Study examines financial structure's impact on non-financial firms' growth in Kenya.
Study shows long-term debt impacts financial growth of non-financial firms listed at Nairobi Securities Exchange.
Study assesses short-term debt's impact on non-financial firms' financial growth.
Study reveals supply chain correlations in firm growth rates.
We analyze a database comprising quarterly sales of 55624 pharmaceutical products commercialized by 3939 pharmaceutical firms in the period 1992--2001. We study the probability density function (PDF) of growth in firms and product sales and find that the width of the PDF of growth decays with the sales as a power law w…
Zipf's law states that the number of firms with size greater than S is inversely proportional to S. Most explanations start with Gibrat's rule of proportional growth but require additional constraints. We show that Gibrat's rule, at all firm levels, yields Zipf's law under a balance condition between the effective grow…
The growth of business firms is an example of a system of complex interacting units that resembles complex interacting systems in nature such as earthquakes. Remarkably, work in econophysics has provided evidence that the statistical properties of the growth of business firms follow the same sorts of power laws that ch…
We determine the distribution of size and growthrates of German business firms in 1987-1997. We find a log-normal size distribution. The distribution of growth rates has fat tails. It can be fitted to an exponential in a narrow central region and is dominated by finite-sample-size effects far in its wings. We study the…
We introduce a new statistical test of the hypothesis that a balanced panel of firms have the same growth rate distribution or, more generally, that they share the same functional form of growth rate distribution. We applied the test to European Union and US publicly quoted manufacturing firms data, considering functio…
I study the behavior and the performance of the long-term forecasts issued by financial analysts with respect to the Extrapolation Hypothesis. That hypothesis states that investors, extrapolating from the firms' recent performances, are too optimistic about growth and large firms and too pessimistic about value and sma…
Analyzed US firm data 1970-2019, identifying scale effects and distributional forms.
The key idea of this model is that firms are the result of an evolutionary process. Based on demand and supply considerations the evolutionary model presented here derives explicitly Gibrat's law of proportionate effects as the result of the competition between products. Applying a preferential attachment mechanism for…
We study the growth dynamics of the size of manufacturing firms considering competition and normal distribution of competency. We start with the fact that all components of the system struggle with each other for growth as happened in real competitive bussiness world. The detailed quantitative agreement of the theory w…
We introduce a model of proportional growth to explain the distribution of business firm growth rates. The model predicts that the distribution is exponential in the central part and depicts an asymptotic power-law behavior in the tails with an exponent 3. Because of data limitations, previous studies in this field hav…
Detailed empirical studies of publicly traded business firms have established that the standard deviation of annual sales growth rates decreases with increasing firm sales as a power law, and that the sales growth distribution is non-Gaussian with slowly decaying tails. To explain these empirical facts, a theory is dev…
We introduce a simple agent-based model which allows us to analyze three stylized facts: a fat-tailed size distribution of companies, a `tent-shaped' growth rate distribution, the scaling relation of the growth rate variance with firm size, and the causality between them. This is achieved under the simple hypothesis th…
We introduce a model of proportional growth to explain the distribution of business firm growth rates. The model predicts that is Laplace in the central part and depicts an asymptotic power-law behavior in the tails with an exponent . Because of data limitations, previous studies in this field have b…
This paper describes an agent-based model of interacting firms, in which interacting firm agents rationally invest capital and labor in order to maximize payoff. Both transactions and production are taken into account in this model. First, the performance of individual firms on a real transaction network was simulated.…
The distribution of firms' growth and firms' sizes is a topic under intense scrutiny. In this paper we show that a thermodynamic model based on the Maximum Entropy Principle, with dynamical prior information, can be constructed that adequately describes the dynamics and distribution of firms' growth. Our theoretical fr…
Model quantifies cyber-attacks' impact on firms and insurers.
We present a preferential attachment growth model to obtain the distribution of number of units in the classes which may represent business firms or other socio-economic entities. We found that is described in its central part by a power law with an exponent which depends on the probabil…
The relationship between the size and the variance of firm growth rates is known to follow an approximate power-law behavior where is the firm size and is an exponent weakly dependent on . Here we show how a model of proportional growth which treats firms as classes compos…
Generative AI predicts economic activity from corporate transcripts.
By employing exhaustive lists of large firms in European countries, we show that the upper-tail of the distribution of firm size can be fitted with a power-law (Pareto-Zipf law), and that in this region the growth rate of each firm is independent of the firm's size (Gibrat's law of proportionate effect). We also find t…
Significant differences in the evolution of firm size distribution for various industries in the United States have been revealed and documented. For theoretical considerations, this finding puts major constraints on the modelling of firm growth. For practical purposes, the observed differences create a solid basis for…
We address the issue of the distribution of firm size. To this end we propose a model of firms in a closed, conserved economy populated with zero-intelligence agents who continuously move from one firm to another. We then analyze the size distribution and related statistics obtained from the model. Our ultimate goal is…
Firm growth process in the developing economies is known to produce divergence in their growth path giving rise to bimodality in the size distribution. Similar bimodality has been observed in wealth distribution as well. Here, we introduce a modified kinetic exchange model which can reproduce such features. In particul…
We propose a novel approach and an empirical procedure to test direct contagion of growth rate in a trade credit network of firms. Our hypotheses are that the use of trade credit contributes to contagion (from many customers to a single supplier - "many to one" contagion) and amplification (through their interaction wi…
An agent-based model for firms' dynamics is developed. The model consists of firm agents with identical characteristic parameters and a bank agent. Dynamics of those agents is described by their balance sheets. Each firm tries to maximize its expected profit with possible risks in market. Infinite growth of a firm dire…
Buyer--seller relationships among firms can be regarded as a longitudinal network in which the connectivity pattern evolves as each firm receives productivity shocks. Based on a data set describing the evolution of buyer--seller links among 55,608 firms over a decade and structural equation modeling, we find some evide…
A bipartite producer-consumer network is constructed to describe the industrial structure. The edges from consumer to producer represent the choices of the consumer for the final products and the degree of producer can represent its market share. So the size distribution of firms can be characterized by producer's degr…
A new model that combines economic growth rate fluctuations at the microscopic and macroscopic level is presented. At the microscopic level, firms are growing at different rates while also being exposed to idiosyncratic shocks at the firm and sector level. We describe such fluctuations as independent Lévy-stable fluctu…
How do regions acquire the knowledge they need to diversify their economic activities? How does the migration of workers among firms and industries contribute to the diffusion of that knowledge? Here we measure the industry, occupation, and location-specific knowledge carried by workers from one establishment to the ne…
We address the question of the growth of firm size. To this end, we analyze the Compustat data base comprising all publicly-traded United States manufacturing firms within the years 1974-1993. We find that the distribution of firm sizes remains stable for the 20 years we study, i.e., the mean value and standard deviati…
A model is presented of the market dynamics to emphasis the effects of increasing returns to scale, including the description of the born and death of the adaptive producers. The evolution of market structure and its behavior with the technological shocks are discussed. Its dynamics is in good agreement with some empir…
Changes in the capital structure before and after the global financial crisis for SMEs are studied, emphasizing their financing problems, distinguishing between internal financing and external financing determinants. The empirical research bears upon 158 small and medium-sized firms listed on Shenzhen and Shanghai Stoc…
Firms' collaboration networks can decline but remain resilient.
One dimensional stylized model taking into account spatial activity of firms with uniformly distributed customers is proposed. The spatial selling area of each firm is defined by a short interval cut out from selling space (large interval). In this representation, the firm size is directly associated with the size of i…
Study examines how industrial emissions evolve over time in response to various factors.
The paper introduces a method for forecasting corporate sales growth using multiple reference variables.
We analyze the fluctuations in the gross domestic product (GDP) of 152 countries for the period 1950--1992. We find that (i) the distribution of annual growth rates for countries of a given GDP decays with ``fatter'' tails than for a Gaussian, and (ii) the width of the distribution scales as a power law of GDP with a s…
Firm foundation theory estimates a security's firm fundamental value based on four determinants: expected growth rate, expected dividend payout, the market interest rate and the degree of risk. In contrast, other views of decision-making in the stock market, using alternatives such as human psychology and behavior, bou…
Using public data (Forbes Global 2000) we show that the asset sizes for the largest global firms follow a Pareto distribution in an intermediate range, that is ``interrupted'' by a sharp cut-off in its upper tail, where it is totally dominated by financial firms. This flattening of the distribution contrasts with a lar…
We introduce a solvable model of randomly growing systems consisting of many independent subunits. Scaling relations and growth rate distributions in the limit of infinite subunits are analysed theoretically. Various types of scaling properties and distributions reported for growth rates of complex systems in a variety…
Research activities of Kyoto Econophysics Group is reviewed. Strong emphasis has been placed on real economy. While the initial stage of research was a first high-definition data analysis on personal income, it soon progressed to firm dynamics, growth rate distribution and establishment of Pareto's law and Gibrat's law…
This paper investigates the statistical properties of within-country GDP and industrial production (IP) growth rate distributions. Many empirical contributions have recently pointed out that cross-section growth rates of firms, industries and countries all follow Laplace distributions. In this work, we test whether als…