A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper provides bounds on estimation error in a distributed online learning setting.
problem Estimating an unknown parameter in a distributed and online manner with finite sample guarantees.
method Proposes a distributed online estimation algorithm that improves accuracy through communication, providing non-asymptotic bounds on estimation error.
result Demonstrates a trade-off between estimation error and communication costs, and determines a stopping time for communication based on desired accuracy.
The paper tackles personalized policy learning from diverse data sources in a federated setting.
problem Learning personalized decision policies from observational bandit feedback across multiple heterogeneous data sources.
method Introduces a novel regret analysis for distinguishing global and local regret, and presents a federated policy learning algorithm using local policies trained with doubly robust offline policy evaluation strategies.
result Establishes finite-sample upper bounds on global and local regret, characterizing them by source heterogeneity and distribution shift.
Enhanced H-consistency bounds derived under relaxed conditions.
problem Quantifying the relationship between zero-one estimation error and surrogate loss estimation error.
method Relaxing the condition on the surrogate loss conditional regret and presenting a general framework for establishing enhanced H-consistency bounds.
result Derivation of more favorable H-consistency bounds in various scenarios.
Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) method is arguably the most celebrated one used in online decision making with partial information feedback. Existing techniques for constructing confidence bounds are typically built upon various concentration inequalities, which thus lead to over-exploration. In this paper, we propose a n…
The paper introduces new measures to quantify variability in decision tree models due to observational multiplicity.
problem The variability in decision tree models due to observational multiplicity.
method Introduces leaf regret and structural regret to decompose observational multiplicity.
result Structural regret is the primary driver of observational multiplicity, accounting for over 15 times the variability of leaf regret in some datasets.
Contextual bandits are widely used in Internet services from news recommendation to advertising, and to Web search. Generalized linear models (logistical regression in particular) have demonstrated stronger performance than linear models in many applications where rewards are binary. However, most theoretical analyses …
The minimum description length (MDL) principle in supervised learning is studied. One of the most important theories for the MDL principle is Barron and Cover's theory (BC theory), which gives a mathematical justification of the MDL principle. The original BC theory, however, can be applied to supervised learning only …
We consider a class of restless multi-armed bandit (RMAB) problems with unknown arm dynamics. At each time, a player chooses an arm out of N arms to play, referred to as an active arm, and receives a random reward from a finite set of reward states. The reward state of the active arm transits according to an unknown Ma…
The paper tackles Nash-regret minimization in congestion games with bandit feedback.
problem Minimizing Nash-regret in congestion games with bandit feedback.
method Proposes centralized and decentralized algorithms for congestion games with bandit feedback, and a centralized algorithm for Markov congestion games.
result Sample complexity depends polynomially on the number of players and facilities, not the size of the action set.
The normalized maximized likelihood (NML) provides the minimax regret solution in universal data compression, gambling, and prediction, and it plays an essential role in the minimum description length (MDL) method of statistical modeling and estimation. Here we show that the normalized maximum likelihood has a Bayes-li…
This paper improves binary classification methods beyond accuracy, especially in imbalanced datasets.
problem Binary classification performance metrics often fail to reflect real-world consequences, especially in imbalanced datasets.
method Derives a generalized Bayes-optimal classifier from accuracy to any performance metric, removing assumptions and providing finite-sample statistical guarantees.
result Optimal classification performance depends on class imbalance properties, providing new insights and guarantees.
Propose an XMSE-aware mixed estimator for EB that interpolates between ML and EB shrinkage.
problem Kernel-based EB estimation may be worse than ML when the kernel is poorly aligned with the true parameter.
method An XMSE-aware mixed estimator that interpolates between ML and EB shrinkage.
result Fixed-weight XMSE is a scalar quadratic, yielding a closed-form oracle mixing weight that is no worse than both ML and the base EB estimator at the XMSE scale.