Proposes a method to create shorter, more accurate prediction intervals.
problem Challenges in achieving both conditional validity and interval efficiency in complex settings.
method Uses a conformal-style calibration method for neural network responses, adjusting to empirical PIT distribution.
result Demonstrates better conditional calibration and shorter intervals than existing methods.
The spectral flow theorem is applied to operators on finite intervals.
problem Operators on finite intervals without boundary conditions are not Fredholm.
method Interpolation theory is used to define boundary conditions making the operators Fredholm. The spectral flow theorem is applied to find the Fredholm index.
result The Fredholm index is given by the spectral flow of the operator path.
In the present paper we study interval identification systems of order three. We prove that the Rauzy induction preserves symmetry: for any symmetric interval identification system of order three after finitely many iterations of the Rauzy induction we always obtain a symmetric system. We also provide an example of sym…
Confidence intervals improve evaluation of binary prediction rules in data mining.
problem Uncertainty in performance measures estimation from finite datasets.
method Asymptotic normal approximations for confidence intervals, with a blurring correction.
result Improved finite sample coverage probabilities and general performance measures inference.
In this note, we first prove that the solution of mean curvature flow on a finite time interval [0,T) can be extended over time T if the space-time integration of the norm of the second fundamental form is finite. Secondly, we prove that the solution of certain mean curvature flow on a finite time interval [0,T) …
Observing prices of European put and call options, we calibrate exponential Lévy models nonparametrically. We discuss the efficient implementation of the spectral estimation procedures for Lévy models of finite jump activity as well as for self-decomposable Lévy models. Based on finite sample variances, confidence inte…
CoCP optimizes prediction intervals by jointly learning center and radius, improving efficiency and coverage.
problem Inefficient conformal prediction intervals under heteroscedasticity and skewness.
method Co-optimization framework that learns center and radius through alternating optimization steps.
result CoCP yields consistently shorter intervals and state-of-the-art conditional coverage diagnostics.
Let M be a geometrically finite rank one locally symmetric manifolds. We prove that the spectrum of the Laplace operator on M is finite in a small interval which is optimal.
Efficient algorithm computes knot invariants quickly.
problem Computing finite type invariants efficiently for knots.
method Create look-up tables for subdiagrams indexed by dyadic intervals, then compute invariants in ildeO(n⌈2kceil) time. result Finite type invariants can be computed on an n-crossing knot in ildeO(n⌈2kceil) time, significantly faster than previous methods. New confidence intervals improve treatment effect estimation in randomized experiments.
problem Improving confidence intervals for treatment effects in randomized experiments.
method Systematic exploitation of negative dependence or variance adaptivity.
result Achieved nonasymptotic confidence intervals with the same effective sample size as asymptotic ones.
We investigate the growth optimal strategy over a finite time horizon for a stock and bond portfolio in an analytically solvable multiplicative Markovian market model. We show that the optimal strategy consists in holding the amount of capital invested in stocks within an interval around an ideal optimal investment. Th…
We show that if L is a codimension-one lamination in a finite volume hyperbolic 3-manifold such that the principal curvatures of each leaf of L are all in the interval (−δ,δ) for a fixed δ∈[0,1) and no complimentary region of L is an interval bundle over a surface, then each bo…
The age of big data has produced data sets that are computationally expensive to analyze and store. Algorithmic leveraging proposes that we sample observations from the original data set to generate a representative data set and then perform analysis on the representative data set. In this paper, we present efficient a…
TA-CQR predicts regression intervals with exact coverage, splitting miscoverage between endpoints.
problem Predicting regression intervals with exact coverage under reporting constraints.
method TA-CQR uses tail allocation to parameterize the oracle, estimating the allocation by searching quantile cores and applying nonnegative additive split-conformal calibration.
result TA-CQR achieves exact finite-sample marginal coverage under exchangeability, with theoretical guarantees on calibration and length.
Constructs tail-specific prediction intervals for financial applications
problem Financial applications require strict control on the left tail
method Extends classical conformal frameworks to provide explicit tail-specific guarantees
result Improved directional calibration in skewed data
We present a graph manifold analog of the Jankins-Neumann classification of Seifert fibered spaces over S2 admitting taut foliations, providing a finite recursive formula to compute the L-space Dehn-filling interval for any graph manifold with torus boundary. As an application of a generalization of this result to F…
Confidence intervals based on penalized maximum likelihood estimators such as the LASSO, adaptive LASSO, and hard-thresholding are analyzed. In the known-variance case, the finite-sample coverage properties of such intervals are determined and it is shown that symmetric intervals are the shortest. The length of the sho…
A theorem for debiasing machine learning with finite sample guarantees.
problem Calculating confidence intervals for machine learning functionals.
method Debiased machine learning based on bias correction and sample splitting.
result Nonasymptotic debiased machine learning theorem with finite sample guarantees.
Proposes a method to create prediction intervals for neural networks using cross-validation.
problem Lack of prediction intervals for neural networks.
method k-fold cross-validation to construct conformal prediction intervals.
result Proposed method produces narrower intervals with similar coverage compared to SC method.
We construct compactifications for median spaces with compact intervals, generalising Roller boundaries of CAT(0) cube complexes. Examples of median spaces with compact intervals include all finite rank median spaces and all proper median spaces of infinite rank. Our methods also work for general median algebra…
We study confidence intervals based on hard-thresholding, soft-thresholding, and adaptive soft-thresholding in a linear regression model where the number of regressors k may depend on and diverge with sample size n. In addition to the case of known error variance, we define and study versions of the estimators when…
CoinDICE estimates confidence intervals for unknown behavior policies in reinforcement learning.
problem Estimating value of a target policy using only behavior policy data.
method Function space embedding, generalized empirical likelihood method, Lagrangian optimization.
result Valid confidence intervals with tighter and more accurate estimates than existing methods.
Method constructs nonparametric prediction intervals with finite-sample guarantees.
problem Nonparametric instrumental variable regression with finite-sample coverage.
method Conformal inference framework applied to NPIV, combining with various estimators.
result Distribution-free, finite-sample coverage over chosen IV shifts.
The paper improves prediction intervals for non-parametric regression using histograms.
problem Computing accurate prediction intervals for non-parametric regression models.
method Uses conditional histograms to estimate conditional distributions and compute shortest prediction intervals.
result The method provides prediction intervals with provable marginal coverage and asymptotic conditional coverage.
We propose an estimator and confidence interval for computing the value of a policy from off-policy data in the contextual bandit setting. To this end we apply empirical likelihood techniques to formulate our estimator and confidence interval as simple convex optimization problems. Using the lower bound of our confiden…
Cube category simplifies set modeling.
problem Modeling set operations efficiently.
method Introducing interval-preserving monotone functions between finite Boolean lattices.
result Cube category facilitates model structures equivalent to simplicial sets.
AutoCP automates the construction of accurate prediction intervals.
problem Creating valid and accurate prediction intervals for machine learning models.
method AutoML framework that optimizes prediction interval length for better accuracy and less conservatism.
result AutoCP significantly outperforms benchmark algorithms in constructing accurate prediction intervals.
The paper proposes a method to calibrate evidential clustering using bootstrapped finite mixture models.
problem Representing uncertainty in cluster membership using Dempster-Shafer mass functions.
method Constructing Dempster-Shafer mass functions by bootstrapping finite mixture models, computing confidence intervals, and calibrating the evidential partition.
result The proposed method calibrates the evidential partition such that the belief and plausibility degrees approximate the true probabilities with high confidence.
Self-calibrating conformal prediction improves interval efficiency and offers a practical alternative.
problem Improving the reliability and uncertainty quantification of machine learning predictions.
method Combines Venn-Abers calibration and conformal prediction for binary and regression problems.
result Improves interval efficiency through model calibration and offers practical alternatives.
ICP improves prediction intervals for continuous outcomes at lower computational cost.
problem Systematic bias in point predictions that undermines their use in decision-making.
method Develops Isotonic Conformal Prediction (ICP) framework to decouple calibration from prediction-set construction.
result SICP and TICP procedures match SC-CP coverage at lower computational cost.
This article provides the first procedure for computing a fully data-dependent interval that traps the mixing time tmix of a finite reversible ergodic Markov chain at a prescribed confidence level. The interval is computed from a single finite-length sample path from the Markov chain, and does not require t…
The paper improves off-policy evaluation in contextual bandits using conformal prediction.
problem Quantifying the performance of a target policy using data from a different behavior policy.
method Proposes a novel algorithm based on a PAC-valid conformal prediction framework to construct probably approximately correct prediction intervals.
result Establishes PAC-type bounds on coverage, improving theoretical guarantees.
Study bounds variance modulation function for K-spider distributions.
problem Bounding variance modulation function for K-spider distributions.
method Used folded moments and total probabilities of spider legs.
result Gave an interval for the variance modulation function.
We construct a finitely presented group G with non-quadratic Dehn function f majorizable by a quadratic function on arbitrary long intervals.
New tree structure for pseudo-Anosovs from interval maps.
problem Understanding pseudo-Anosovs from interval maps.
method Tree structure on pseudo-Anosovs using rational numbers.
result Deepened dictionary between invariants.
According to Thurston's stability theorem, every group of C^1 diffeomorphisms of the closed interval is locally indicable (.e., every finitely generated subgroup factors through Z). We show that, even for finitely generated groups, the converse of this statement is not true. More precisely, we show that the semi-direct…
Skew-adaptive method improves prediction intervals for regression.
problem Improving prediction intervals for regression models, especially in cases of skewness and varying scales.
method Develops a skew-adaptive extension of split conformal prediction using an asymmetric interval family and gauge approach.
result Preserves marginal validity and adapts to local scale and skewness, with efficiency gains over existing methods.
We investigate the integral conditions to extend the mean curvature flow in a Riemannian manifold. We prove that the mean curvature flow solution with finite total mean curvature on a finite time interval [0,T) can be extended over time T. Moreover, we show that the condition is optimal in some sense.
Caus-Modens uses deep ensembles to better predict causal outcomes in hidden confounding scenarios.
problem Predicting causal outcomes in the presence of hidden confounders.
method Caus-Modens employs a modulated ensemble approach to improve prediction intervals for causal outcomes using sensitivity models.
result Caus-Modens provides tighter prediction intervals for causal outcomes compared to existing methods.
A new method combines conformal prediction with Super Learner for interval predictions.
problem Constructing reliable interval predictions for complex regression functions.
method Coupling conformal prediction with Super Learner framework.
result The conformalized SL achieves valid finite-sample coverage with competitive performance.
Conformal prediction is a technique for constructing prediction intervals that attain valid coverage in finite samples, without making distributional assumptions. Despite this appeal, existing conformal methods can be unnecessarily conservative because they form intervals of constant or weakly varying length across the…
We show that the topological groups Diff+1(I) and Diff+1(S1) of orientation-preserving C1-diffeomorphisms of the interval and the circle, respectively, admit finitely generated dense subgroups. We also investigate the question of genericity (in the sense of Baire category) of such finite to…
Paper extends conformal prediction to complex survey data.
problem Applying distribution-free prediction intervals to complex survey data.
method Design-based conformal prediction for non-exchangeable data.
result Empirical guarantees of finite-sample coverage for complex survey data.
Study optimizes prediction intervals in conformal regression.
problem Optimizing the length of prediction intervals in conformal regression.
method Introduces EffOrt and Ad-EffOrt methodologies to minimize interval length.
result Demonstrates theoretical and empirical improvements over classical methods.
BC-ACI corrects time series forecast bias, improving prediction intervals.
problem Persistent bias in time series forecasts leads to overly conservative prediction intervals.
method Augments ACI with an EWM estimate of forecast bias to correct nonconformity scores and re-center intervals.
result Reduces Winkler interval scores by 13-17% under distribution shifts, improving calibration.
Optimal learning via moderate deviations theory improves statistical accuracy.
problem Statistical estimation of expected loss in various models.
method Develops confidence intervals using moderate deviation principle.
result Proposed confidence intervals are statistically optimal.
MAPS algorithm creates reliable prediction intervals for high-dimensional data.
problem Computing reliable conditional prediction intervals in high-dimensional settings.
method Lifted predictive model (LPM) and MAPS algorithm for distribution-free intervals.
result MAPS algorithm produces valid prediction intervals for any trained model.
In [13], it is proved that any subgroup of Diff+ω(I) (the group of orientation preserving analytic diffeomorphisms of the interval) is either metaabelian or does not satisfy a law. A stronger question is asked whether or not the Girth Alternative holds for subgroups of Diff+ω(I). In th…