Study uses VC correlation to uncover directional financial relationships.
problem Understanding causal relationships between financial variables.
method Volatility constrained correlation (VC correlation) method.
result Operating income is most influential, while market capitalization and revenue are most susceptible.
Study identifies key ESG variables for assessing financial risk.
problem Assessing financial risk from ESG data with many variables.
method Proposed framework for hierarchical ESG data, selecting relevant variables.
result Selected ESG variables are more relevant to financial risk than aggregated scores.
Paper introduces NumLLM for better financial text understanding with numeric variables.
problem Poor performance of existing financial large language models in numeric financial text.
method Constructed financial corpus, fine-tuned with LoRA modules, merged into foundation model.
result NumLLM achieves best performance on financial question-answering benchmark, especially with numeric questions.
The study uses DCC for financial market analysis, revealing hidden correlations.
problem Identifying hidden nonlinear correlations in financial markets.
method Agglomerative hierarchical clustering with distance correlation coefficient.
result DCC reveals more information than Pearson correlation for financial data.
Trading strategy uses Hoeffding's Inequality to predict financial regime change.
problem Predicting financial regime change for trading strategies.
method Applies Hoeffding's Inequality to trading performance data.
result Early warning of financial regime change can be detected.
A financial market model uses spin variables to represent and predict agent behavior.
problem Predicting and understanding financial market behavior.
method Agent-based model with Potts model interpretation, focusing on spin variables representing opinions and actions.
result Model accurately predicts market behavior and statistical properties of financial returns.
Atoms and molecules are important conceptual entities we invented to understand the physical world around us. The key to their usefulness lies in the organization of nuclear and electronic degrees of freedom into a single dynamical variable whose time evolution we can better imagine. The use of such effective variables…
Improved clustering of extra-financial data using NMF with data separation.
problem High correlations and complex data structure in extra-financial datasets.
method Applying non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) with an initial data separation step.
result Enhanced clustering quality compared to PCA.
Model financial markets using information theory with a single parameter.
problem Capture the complexity of financial markets with a simple model.
method Derive an idealized model based on four information-theoretic assumptions, minimizing surprisal and divergence.
result The model uses squared radial Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes for state variables and their sums.
Paper generalizes bipolar theorems for non-negative random variables.
problem Problems with existing bipolar theorems under stronger assumptions.
method Generalizes existing theorems in a robust probabilistic framework.
result Provides necessary and sufficient conditions for bipolar representation.
Hybrid quantum neural networks predict continuous variables.
problem Predicting continuous variables using quantum computing.
method Quantum classical hybrid neural networks for continuous variable prediction.
result Quantum neural networks outperform classical methods in continuous variable prediction.
This paper uses multivariate probability models to assess financial system risks.
problem Assessing systemic risk in financial systems.
method Computes multivariate conditional probability distributions for elliptical distributions, focusing on Student-t and Normal models.
result Proposes measures of stress impact and systemic risk.
Starting from the global financial crisis to the more recent disruptions brought about by geopolitical tensions and public health crises, the volatility of risk in financial markets has increased significantly. This underscores the necessity for comprehensive risk measures capable of capturing the complexity and height…
I show the equivalence between a model of financial contagion and the threshold model of global cascades proposed by Watts (2002). The model financial network comprises banks that hold risky external assets as well as interbank assets. It is shown that a simple threshold model can replicate the size and the frequency o…
New method identifies extreme risk propagation in financial networks.
problem Understanding extreme risk in financial networks.
method Max-linear structural equation model, hard-thresholding, Hamming distance.
result Sparse DAG for extreme risk propagation estimated.
Based on empirical financial time-series, we show that the "silence-breaking" probability follows a super-universal power law: the probability of observing a large movement is inversely proportional to the length of the on-going low-variability period. Such a scaling law has been previously predicted theoretically [R. …
Study tests how U.S. equity prices align with global asset frequencies using financial variables.
problem Testing whether U.S. equity prices align with global asset frequencies using financial variables.
method Examines SPX and RUT gaps, uses OIS-based funding, volatility, trading-friction, financial-condition variables, and residual information.
result Gains in fit survive broad-dollar neutralization, alternative blocks, PCA, residualization, and nested horizon selection, supporting reduced-form P-Q alignment.
We apply the hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm to the financial time sires analysis of the stochastic volatility (SV) model for the first time. The HMC algorithm is used for the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) update of volatility variables of the SV model in the Bayesian inference. We compute parameters of the SV mod…
A new model integrates LSTM and copulas for high-dimensional financial data.
problem Modeling high-dimensional dependencies across financial markets.
method Variational LSTM with regular vine copulas.
result Outperforms benchmarks in cross-market portfolio forecasting.
Study finds dividend payout policy positively impacts firm profitability.
problem Determining the optimal dividend payout ratio and its effect on financial performance.
method Panel data analysis of 60 Indian listed firms over 10 years, using ROA as a proxy for profitability.
result Positive and significant relationship between dividend payout policy and firm performance.
New framework reduces cost of financial option pricing simulations on FPGAs.
problem Efficiently simulate financial option pricing with reduced computational cost.
method Nested MLMC framework with low precision calculations on FPGAs.
result Higher computational savings compared to existing mixed-precision MLMC frameworks.
Improved FDR control for sparse financial index tracking.
problem Maintaining FDR control in high-dimensional financial data with strong variable dependencies.
method Expanding T-Rex framework to handle overlapping groups of correlated variables with nearest neighbors penalization.
result Accurately tracks the S&P 500 index using only a small number of stocks.
One popular approach for nonstructural economic and financial forecasting is to include a large number of economic and financial variables, which has been shown to lead to significant improvements for forecasting, for example, by the dynamic factor models. A challenging issue is to determine which variables and (their)…
Properties of low-variability periods in the time series are analysed. The theoretical approach is used to show the relationship between the multi-scaling of low-variability periods and multi-affinity of the time series. It is shown that this technically simple method is capable of reveling more details about time-seri…
We calculate the realized volatility in the spin model of financial markets and examine the returns standardized by the realized volatility. We find that moments of the standardized returns agree with the theoretical values of standard normal variables. This is the first evidence that the return dynamics of the spin fi…
We extend Kirman's model by introducing variable event time scale. The proposed flexible time scale is equivalent to the variable trading activity observed in financial markets. Stochastic version of the extended Kirman's agent based model is compared to the non-linear stochastic models of long-range memory in financia…
Enhances financial data signal-to-noise ratio using auto-encoders and mutual regularization.
problem Improving signal-to-noise ratio in financial data.
method Combining target and context variables, using auto-encoders with mutual regularization to learn common ground.
result Discover new regularities in financial time-series data.
Study on Leverage Ratio in European banks during financial crises.
problem Impact of financial crises on European banks' Leverage Ratio.
method Empirical analysis using regression techniques.
result Leverage Ratio is significantly influenced by financial scenarios.
Study examines credit risk's impact on Vietnamese banks' financial performance.
problem Impact of credit risk on commercial banks' financial performance in Vietnam.
method Dynamic Difference Generalized Method of Moments (dynamic Difference GMM) approach to address autocorrelation, non-constant variance, and endogeneity issues.
result ROE and NIM persist from one year to the next, while NPLR negatively affects ROA and ROE.
Optimal benchmark design varies based on costs in financial manipulation.
problem Manipulation of price benchmarks in finance.
method Analyzes empirical pattern and cost structures to determine optimal benchmark design.
result The optimal benchmark depends on the relative sizes of fixed and variable costs.
Estimating covariances between financial assets plays an important role in risk management. In practice, when the sample size is small compared to the number of variables, the empirical estimate is known to be very unstable. Here, we propose a novel covariance estimator based on the Gaussian Process Latent Variable Mod…
TPLVM models portfolio construction for non-Gaussian financial data.
problem Optimal asset allocation in finance with non-Gaussian fluctuations.
method Student's t-process latent variable model (TPLVM) for portfolio optimization.
result TPLVM outperforms Gaussian process latent variable model in minimum-variance portfolio construction.
Since the quasiconvex risk measures is a bigger class than the well known convex risk measures, the study of quasiconvex risk measures makes sense especially in the financial markets with volatility. In this paper, we will study the quasiconvex risk measures defined on a special space Lp(⋅) where the variable …
Paper introduces a new method for calibrating ESGs to both historical and forward-looking data.
problem Lack of a generally accepted methodology for calibrating ESGs to forward-looking information.
method Conditional Scenario Simulator framework for consistent calibration of economic and financial variables.
result Framework can embed various financial and macroeconomic models and demonstrate practical examples in frequentist and Bayesian settings.
In this paper we use wavelet concepts to show that correlation coefficient between two financial data's is not constant but varies with scale from high correlation value to strongly anti-correlation value This studies is important because correlation coefficient is used to quantify degree of independence between two va…
We introduce a new Self-Organized Criticality (SOC) model for simulating price evolution in an artificial financial market, based on a multilayer network of traders. The model also implements, in a quite realistic way with respect to previous studies, the order book dy- namics, by considering two assets with variable f…
In high-frequency financial data not only returns, but also waiting times between consecutive trades are random variables. Therefore, it is possible to apply continuous-time random walks (CTRWs) as phenomenological models of the high-frequency price dynamics. An empirical analysis performed on the 30 DJIA stocks shows …
In high-frequency financial data not only returns, but also waiting times between consecutive trades are random variables. Therefore, it is possible to apply continuous-time random walks (CTRWs) as phenomenological models of the high-frequency price dynamics. An empirical analysis performed on the 30 DJIA stocks shows …
The study examines cross-border lending behavior from G7 countries, showing changes in driving factors after the 2008 financial crisis.
problem Understanding the factors affecting cross-border lending behavior among G7 countries.
method Employed a gravity model to analyze bilateral and global factors influencing cross-border lending.
result Driving factors for cross-border lending have changed since the 2008 financial crisis, with continent variable becoming more significant.
Study introduces a new copula-based measure for financial asset cointegration.
problem Traditional correlation coefficient's limitations in measuring financial asset relationships.
method Utilizes copulas to measure dependence among financial asset returns.
result Enhanced stability and informativeness in measuring financial asset relationships.
Study shows how financial report sentiment impacts bank profitability.
problem Understanding causal effects of financial report sentiment on bank profitability.
method Causal forest machine learning methodology, FinancialBERT sentiment scores, SHAP analysis, comprehensive dataset.
result Statistically significant causal associations between balance sheet and expense management variables and profitability.
This paper proposes a market consistent valuation framework for variable annuities with guaranteed minimum accumulation benefit, death benefit and surrender benefit features. The setup is based on a hybrid model for the financial market and uses time-inhomogeneous Lévy processes as risk drivers. Further, we allow for d…
Bayesian MS-VAR model for pricing equity-linked life insurance products.
problem Pricing and hedging equity-linked life insurance products on maximum of several assets.
method Introduces Bayesian Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) process to model economic variables and insured's lifetime.
result Obtains net single premiums and hedging formulas for equity-linked life insurance products.
Examines financial risks' impact on EU-15 economic growth.
problem The impact of financial risks on economic growth in EU-15.
method Panel estimated generalized least squares method with additional control variables.
result Financial risks significantly impact economic growth in EU-15.
Enhances valuation of variable annuities with stochastic interest rate models.
problem Valuation and optimal surrender strategies for variable annuities in Lévy models.
method Hybrid numerical method combining tree methods for interest rate modeling and finite difference techniques for asset price.
result Influence of stochastic interest rates on surrender decisions and contract design.
Using a method rooted in information theory, we present results that have identified a large set of stocks for which social media can be informative regarding financial volatility. By clustering stocks based on the joint feature sets of social and financial variables, our research provides an important contribution by …
Model for hedging price and quantity risks in electricity markets.
problem Hedging risks for energy retailers in a regulated electricity market.
method Closed-form solution for optimal portfolio using financial instruments based on price and weather indexes.
result Closed-form solution for mean-var model in discrete setting without distributional assumptions.
Network analysis improves stock return forecasting.
problem Improving stock return forecasting using network properties.
method Network analysis of stock return correlations, using individual and global properties of stocks.
result 50% improvement in R2 score for long-term stock returns forecasting, 3% for short-term.