Study predicts price predictability in ultra-high frequency financial data using entropy tests.
problem Tackles predictability of ultra-high frequency financial data.
method Develops statistical tests based on Shannon entropy and Kullback-Leibler divergence to analyze predictability.
result Degree of randomness increases with aggregation level in transaction time.
A streaming algorithm estimates quadratic covariation from financial data efficiently.
problem Estimating quadratic covariation from ultra-high-frequency financial data with limited memory.
method Formulated multi-scale, realized kernel, pre-averaging, and modulated realized covariance estimators with fixed bandwidth.
result Fixed bandwidth estimators require higher bandwidth for positive semidefiniteness.
This study examines how financial tick data becomes more random with time aggregation.
problem Investigating the randomness of financial tick data over time.
method Applied statistical randomness tests from NIST and TestU01 batteries to ultra-high frequency financial data.
result Financial tick data becomes increasingly random as the aggregation level of transaction time increases.
A detailed analysis of correlation between stock returns at high frequency is compared with simple models of random walks. We focus in particular on the dependence of correlations on time scales - the so-called Epps effect. This provides a characterization of stochastic models of stock price returns which is appropriat…
Paper uses TCN with attention to predict UHF stock price changes.
problem Predicting discrete dynamic distribution of UHF stock price changes.
method Classified price changes, used TCN with attention mechanism.
result TCN and TCN (attention) models outperform GARCH and LSTM models.
Paper forecasts financial trading durations using a new point process model.
problem Forecasting limit order book durations in high-frequency financial data.
method Self-exciting flexible residual point process incorporating empirical distributional features.
result The model achieves strong predictive performance compared to alternative approaches.
This study examine the theoretical and empirical perspectives of the symmetric Hawkes model of the price tick structure. Combined with the maximum likelihood estimation, the model provides a proper method of volatility estimation specialized in ultra-high-frequency analysis. Empirical studies based on the model using t…
VOLARE provides standardized realized volatility measures from financial data.
problem Lack of standardized realized volatility measures from ultra-high-frequency data.
method Asset-specific pipeline for cleaning and sampling data, providing a wide range of realized estimators.
result Comprehensive set of realized estimators for equities, exchange rates, and futures.
Modeling price clustering in financial markets using discrete distributions.
problem Price clustering phenomenon in financial markets.
method Discrete price model based on mixture of double Poisson distributions with dynamic volatility and proportions.
result Higher instantaneous volatility weakens price clustering at ultra-high frequencies.
Through the analysis of a dataset of ultra high frequency order book updates, we introduce a model which accommodates the empirical properties of the full order book together with the stylized facts of lower frequency financial data. To do so, we split the time interval of interest into periods in which a well chosen r…
Bayesian model predicts mid-price dynamics in financial markets.
problem Challenges in predicting financial markets using traditional methods.
method Bayesian bilinear neural network with temporal attention.
result Feasibility and advantages of Bayesian deep-learning approach.
Long-range correlation in financial time series reflects the complex dynamics of the stock markets driven by algorithms and human decisions. Our analysis exploits ultra-high frequency order book data from NASDAQ Nordic over a period of three years to numerically estimate the power-law scaling exponents using detrended …
Motivated by a zero-intelligence approach, the aim of this paper is to connect the microscopic (discrete price and volume), mesoscopic (discrete price and continuous volume) and macroscopic (continuous price and volume) frameworks for the modelling of limit order books, with a view to providing a natural probabilistic …
Social and economic systems are complex adaptive systems, in which heterogenous agents interact and evolve in a self-organized manner, and macroscopic laws emerge from microscopic properties. To understand the behaviors of complex systems, computational experiments based on physical and mathematical models provide a us…
We study the distributions of event-time returns and clock-time returns at different microscopic timescales using ultra-high-frequency data extracted from the limit-order books of 23 stocks traded in the Chinese stock market in 2003. We find that the returns at the one-trade timescale obey the inverse cubic law. For la…
Study predicts stock transaction durations using LSTM and attention mechanism.
problem Estimating the probability density function of transaction durations in financial markets.
method Proposes a hybrid model combining LSTM networks and attention mechanism to extend ACD model.
result Demonstrates superior performance of the hybrid model on large-scale financial data.
We present a large-scale study of commonality in liquidity and resilience across assets in an ultra high-frequency (millisecond-timestamped) Limit Order Book (LOB) dataset from a pan-European electronic equity trading facility. We first show that extant work in quantifying liquidity commonality through the degree of ex…
At the ultra high frequency level, the notion of price of an asset is very ambiguous. Indeed, many different prices can be defined (last traded price, best bid price, mid price,...). Thus, in practice, market participants face the problem of choosing a price when implementing their strategies. In this work, we propose …
Using ultra-high-frequency data extracted from the order flows of 23 stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, we study the empirical regularities of order placement in the opening call auction, cool period and continuous auction. The distributions of relative logarithmic prices against reference prices in the thre…
When stock prices are observed at high frequencies, more information can be utilized in estimation of parameters of the price process. However, high-frequency data are contaminated by the market microstructure noise which causes significant bias in parameter estimation when not taken into account. We propose an estimat…
Study compares Fourier estimators to mitigate asynchrony effects in finance.
problem Impact of asynchrony on instantaneous financial estimates.
method Comparison of Malliavin-Mancino and Cuchiero-Teichmann estimators.
result Malliavin-Mancino estimator produces more stable estimates under asynchrony.
By studying all the trades and best bids/asks of ultra high frequency snapshots recorded from the order books of a basket of 10 futures assets, we bring qualitative empirical evidence that the impact of a single trade depends on the intertrade time lags. We find that when the trading rate becomes faster, the return var…
We have analyzed the statistical probabilities of limit-order book (LOB) shape through building the book using the ultra-high-frequency data from 23 liquid stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2003. We find that the averaged LOB shape has a maximum away from the same best price for both buy and sell LOBs. Th…
We propose a mathematical procedure for finding informed traders in ultra-high frequency trading. We wrote it as Vector ARMA and found condition of its stationarity. For the price exposure complied with ARMA(1,2) we proved that underlying asset price difference can be derived as ARMA(1,1) process. For validation of the…
Study uses multi-kernel Hawkes models to analyze high-frequency price dynamics.
problem Understanding responsive speeds of market participants in high-frequency trading.
method Multi-kernel Hawkes models with conditional Hessian analysis for optimization.
result Existence of multi-kernels (UHF, VHF, HF) in high-frequency price dynamics.
We study the statistical regularities of opening call auction using the ultra-high-frequency data of 22 liquid stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2003. The distribution of the relative price, defined as the relative difference between the order price in opening call auction and the closing price of last tr…
New method for spot volatility estimation with reduced microstructure noise.
problem Estimating spot volatility from noisy high-frequency data.
method Pre-averaging/kernel estimator to handle microstructure noise.
result Optimal bandwidth selection and kernel functions for minimal variance.
We propose a limit order book (LOB) model with dynamics that account for both the impact of the most recent order and the shape of the LOB. We present an empirical analysis showing that the type of the last order significantly alters the submission rate of immediate future orders, even after accounting for the state of…
Proposes LSTM for financial market trend forecasting.
problem Challenges in financial market trend forecasting.
method Uses LSTM for financial market trend forecasting.
result Improves performance compared to traditional methods.
Intelligent financial data analysis system improves accuracy and efficiency.
problem Inefficient and inaccurate financial data analysis due to complex data and evolving contexts.
method Integrates LLMs with RAG technology for financial data analysis.
result Significant improvements in accuracy and recall (78.6% and 89.2%) compared to baseline.
RiskLabs uses LLMs to predict financial risks from multimodal data.
problem Financial risk prediction using AI techniques.
method Integrates multimodal financial data (textual, vocal, time series, news) into LLMs for prediction.
result Empirical results show effectiveness in forecasting market volatility and variance.
FinDiff generates synthetic financial data for regulatory tasks.
problem Sharing microdata for research due to privacy regulations.
method Diffusion model using embedding encodings for mixed modality financial data.
result FinDiff excels in generating high-fidelity, privacy-preserving synthetic financial data.
FinBloom enhances LLMs for real-time financial queries.
problem Limited access to real-time financial data by LLMs.
method Developed a custom 7B parameter LLM, Financial Context Dataset, and a Financial Agent.
result Significantly improved LLMs' capability to handle dynamic financial tasks.
Graph neural networks improve financial modeling of complex data.
problem Complex financial data and market volatility.
method Review and categorize GNN models for financial graphs.
result GNN models enhance performance in financial tasks.
Study clusters Kenyan medical insurance companies based on financial performance and reporting consistency.
problem Identifying financial health and reporting consistency in Kenyan medical insurance companies.
method Advanced clustering techniques (KMeans, DTW) on financial ratios and time series data.
result Four distinct clusters identified, each representing different financial performance and reporting consistency combinations.
CoFinDiff generates synthetic financial data capturing stylized facts and meeting specified conditions.
problem Limited data availability and difficulty in controlling synthetic financial data generation.
method Conditional diffusion model with cross-attention to incorporate conditions derived from price data.
result Synthetic data generated by CoFinDiff accurately meets specified conditions for trends and volatility.
Paper uses LLMs to detect financial anomalies.
problem Detecting irregular financial entries.
method Non-semantic financial data encoding with LLMs embeddings, tested 3 models.
result LLMs improve anomaly detection in financial data.
Introduces six levels of privacy for financial synthetic data.
problem Privacy risks in financial synthetic data.
method Defines six levels of privacy protection for synthetic data.
result Provides a framework to assess and improve privacy in synthetic data.
Federated learning predicts financial distress across U.S. states without centralizing data.
problem Predicting financial distress across U.S. states using sensitive data without centralization.
method Cross-silo federated learning, interpretable AI techniques, machine learning model for categorical data.
result Identifies both global and state-specific predictors of financial hardship.
This study designs a financial risk control platform using big data and machine learning.
problem Traditional risk management models are inadequate for modern financial complexities.
method Big data mining, real-time streaming data processing, statistical analysis, and precise customer behavior mining.
result The platform effectively identifies and responds to potential risks in real-time.
Paper fine-tunes LLMs for financial tasks using data fusion.
problem Improving LLMs for financial analysis tasks.
method Fine-tuned Llama3-8B and Mistral-7B using PEFT and LoRA, combined datasets for data fusion.
result Enhanced model performance across financial tasks.
This paper reviews transfer learning for financial data predictions, highlighting its potential.
problem Accurate stock price prediction in financial time series is challenging due to noise and non-linear relationships.
method Transfer Learning applied to financial market predictions.
result Transfer Learning can improve financial prediction capability.
A method uses Wasserstein clustering to simplify financial data analysis.
problem Processing and analyzing granular financial data with missing values and identifying clusters.
method Variant of Lloyd's algorithm applied to probability distributions, using Wasserstein barycenters.
result Demonstrated usefulness in financial regulation context.
Study integrates deep learning with financial data for improved trading strategies.
problem Enhancing predictive performance in algorithmic trading and portfolio optimization.
method Developed embedding techniques to treat limit order book snapshots as image-based input channels.
result Achieved state-of-the-art performance in high-frequency trading algorithms.
GAN improves financial risk prediction by generating synthetic minority events.
problem Data imbalance in financial market supervision.
method Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) to generate synthetic data.
result GAN-generated synthetic data significantly improves prediction accuracy.
Study evaluates financial anomaly detection methods on Canadian stock market.
problem Detecting financial anomalies in the Canadian stock market.
method Topological data analysis (TDA), principal component analysis (PCA), and neural network-based approaches.
result Neural network-based methods achieve the strongest performance in detecting financial anomalies.
The paper proposes a new model using financial big data to improve portfolio risk analysis.
problem Addressing potential information loss in portfolio risk measurement.
method Uses financial big data to incorporate out-of-target-portfolio information and overcomes the curse of dimensionality.
result The use of financial big data improves small portfolio risk analysis.
Framework integrates financial and annual report data for better corporate credit ratings.
problem Lack of insights from non-financial data in credit rating models.
method Uses FinBERT to extract features from annual reports and combines them with financial data.
result Improves credit rating accuracy by 8-12%.