New method uses statistical physics to detect financial market manipulation.
problem Detecting financial market manipulation activities like spoofing and layering.
method Modeling order book dynamics as particle motion and using momentum measure.
result Method outperforms conventional Z-score-based anomaly detection.
Optimal benchmark design varies based on costs in financial manipulation.
problem Manipulation of price benchmarks in finance.
method Analyzes empirical pattern and cost structures to determine optimal benchmark design.
result The optimal benchmark depends on the relative sizes of fixed and variable costs.
Framework detects covert financial market manipulation using LOB representations.
problem Detecting covert financial market manipulation (spoofing) from complex anomaly patterns in multilevel prices.
method Cascaded contrastive representation learning of LOB data.
result Transformer-based architectures achieve state-of-the-art results in detection performance.
The Interbank Offered Rate is a vital benchmark interest rate in the financial markets of every country to which financial contracts are tied. In the light of the recent LIBOR manipulation incident, this paper seeks to address the fear that Interbank Offered Rate are entirely controlled by the bank. The paper will focu…
RL agent outperforms model-based approach in detecting price manipulation.
problem Detecting and exploiting price manipulation opportunities.
method Compared model-free RL with model-based approach in a market with Almgren-Chriss framework.
result RL consistently outperforms model-based approach, especially with noisy parameter estimates.
We provide direct evidence of market manipulation at the beginning of the financial crisis in November 2007. The type of manipulation, a "bear raid," would have been prevented by a regulation that was repealed by the Securities and Exchange Commission in July 2007. The regulation, the uptick rule, was designed to preve…
Market manipulation is a strategy used by traders to alter the price of financial securities. One type of manipulation is based on the process of buying or selling assets by using several trading strategies, among them spoofing is a popular strategy and is considered illegal by market regulators. Some promising tools h…
In financial markets, liquidity is not constant over time but exhibits strong seasonal patterns. In this article we consider a limit order book model that allows for time-dependent, deterministic depth and resilience of the book and determine optimal portfolio liquidation strategies. In a first model variant, we propos…
Study reveals risks of investing in new crypto-tokens in decentralized exchanges.
problem Risks associated with investing in newly created tokens in decentralized exchanges.
method Analysis of financial impact, market dynamics, profitability, and liquidity manipulations.
result Significant market liquidity trapped in honeypots, reducing market efficiency and misleading investors.
New attacks inflate earnings while reducing fraud scores, potentially millions at stake.
problem Manipulating financial reports to hide distress and gain.
method Maximum Violated Multi-Objective (MVMO) attacks that adapt search direction.
result Inflation of earnings by 100-200% while reducing fraud scores by 15% in 50% of cases.
Online trading platforms manipulate profits and losses, causing 82% of retail traders to lose money.
problem Manipulation of online trading platforms leading to financial losses for retail traders.
method Independent recording of trade details using REST API responses, comparison with broker reviews.
result 82% of retail traders lose money due to platform technical issues.
Recent news cast doubts on London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) integrity. Given its economic importance and the delay with which authorities realize about this situation, we aim to find an objective method in order to detect departures in the LIBOR rate that from the expected behavior. We analyze several interest rat…
We develop an option pricing model based on a tug-of-war game. This two-player zero-sum stochastic differential game is formulated in the context of a multi-dimensional financial market. The issuer and the holder try to manipulate asset price processes in order to minimize and maximize the expected discounted reward. W…
Paper proposes a GRU model to detect spoofing in retail investors.
problem Spoofing in unregulated markets with retail investors.
method GRU-based detection model using market variables.
result Model performs well in early detection of spoofing attempts.
Framework detects and ranks suspicious market manipulation using temporal convolutions and expert assessment.
problem Detecting and deterring rogue agents in financial markets.
method Weakly supervised learning, expert assessment, similarity search.
result Promising preliminary results in detecting and ranking suspicious market manipulation.
Article examines NFT market microstructure and trading risks.
problem Difficulty in distinguishing genuine NFTs from fads and scams.
method Analyzes price formation, market structure, and transparency.
result Provides due-diligence pointers to mitigate NFT trading risk.
This paper explores a real-world fundamental theme under a data science perspective. It specifically discusses whether fraud or manipulation can be observed in and from municipality income tax size distributions, through their aggregation from citizen fiscal reports. The study case pertains to official data obtained fr…
Algorithms are increasingly common components of high-impact decision-making, and a growing body of literature on adversarial examples in laboratory settings indicates that standard machine learning models are not robust. This suggests that real-world systems are also susceptible to manipulation or misclassification, w…
Researchers show how to manipulate Partial Dependence plots to deceive explanations of predictive models.
problem The robustness and trustworthiness of Partial Dependence (PD) explanations are compromised.
method Data poisoning using genetic and gradient algorithms to manipulate PD plots.
result PD explanations can be fooled and manipulated to mislead understanding of predictive models.
Investigates cross-impact kernels for financial asset prices.
problem Understanding and parameterizing cross-impact kernels for financial asset prices.
method Examined martingale-admissible and no-statistical-arbitrage-admissible kernels, determined their overlap, and provided calibration formulas.
result Identified the overlap between martingale-admissible and no-statistical-arbitrage-admissible kernels and provided formulas for their calibration.
This paper analyzes several interest rates time series from the United Kingdom during the period 1999 to 2014. The analysis is carried out using a pioneering statistical tool in the financial literature: the complexity-entropy causality plane. This representation is able to classify different stochastic and chaotic reg…
Libra ensures fair order-matching in electronic financial exchanges.
problem Technical shortcomings and infrastructure complexities in electronic trading.
method Formally defined temporal fairness, evaluated existing fair market designs, introduced Libra.
result Libra is more robust and resilient to technical manipulation than existing designs.
GAN improves financial risk prediction by generating synthetic minority events.
problem Data imbalance in financial market supervision.
method Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) to generate synthetic data.
result GAN-generated synthetic data significantly improves prediction accuracy.
Is the present economic and financial crisis similar to some previous one? It would be so nice to prove that universality laws exist for predicting such rare events under a minimum set of realistic hypotheses. First, I briefly recall whether patterns, like business cycles, are indeed found, and can be modeled within a …
A Markov-chain model is developed for the purpose estimation of the cure rate of non-performing loans. The technique is performed collectively, on portfolios and it can be applicable in the process of calculation of credit impairment. It is efficient in terms of data manipulation costs which makes it accessible even to…
Decentralized finance uses blockchain for $70B in assets, differing from traditional finance.
problem Ensuring compliance and security in decentralized finance.
method Systematic analysis of legal, economic, security, and privacy aspects.
result Decentralized finance offers unique economic effects and security features.
Investors usually resort to financial advisors to improve their investment process until the point of complete delegation on investment decisions. Surely, financial advice is potentially a correcting factor in investment decisions but, in the past, the media and regulators blamed biased advisors for manipulating the ex…
Optimal execution strategy for merger & acquisition contracts with price impact.
problem Optimal execution and pricing of financial derivatives in M&A deals.
method Indifference utility arguments, considering linear and nonlinear contracts.
result Linear contracts are more expensive and vulnerable to manipulation.
Study shows how high-budget agents can manipulate prediction markets.
problem Manipulation of prediction markets by high-budget agents.
method Agent-based simulations and analytic characterization of price dynamics.
result High-budget agents can temporarily shift prediction market prices.
AI learns market manipulation through simulation, suggesting regulation.
problem Regulating AI to prevent market manipulation.
method Used a genetic algorithm in an artificial market simulation.
result AI discovered market manipulation as an optimal strategy.
Prime Match protects client stock trades from market price manipulation.
problem Protecting client stock trades from market price manipulation.
method Prime Match uses a two-round secure linear comparison protocol to match orders without revealing information.
result Prime Match reduces market impact and maintains client privacy.
New mechanism designs regulate herding in financial markets.
problem Herding causes irrational market decisions and volatility.
method A trilateral game framework based on optimal control theory.
result Effective mechanisms improve social welfare.
This paper studies the 28 time series of Libor rates, classified in seven maturities and four currencies), during the last 14 years. The analysis was performed using a novel technique in financial economics: the Complexity-Entropy Causality Plane. This planar representation allows the discrimination of different stocha…
Research proposes classifiers to distinguish tweets with conflicting cashtags.
problem Cryptocurrency cashtags interfere with stock company cashtags on Twitter.
method Heuristic and supervised classifiers analyzed for distinguishing tweets.
result Independent Models perform best in distinguishing tweets with conflicting cashtags.
The paper analyzes how leverage affects manipulation in event-linked markets, offering new insights into regulation.
problem Manipulation and insider information in leveraged event-linked markets.
method Develops a two-axis manipulation taxonomy and analyzes leverage's effects on market-price and outcome manipulation.
result Leverage scales market-price manipulation linearly but shifts the cost-benefit threshold for outcome manipulation.
New model improves neural network robustness against input manipulations.
problem Improving neural network robustness against input manipulations.
method Causal view and deep causal manipulation augmented model (deep CAMA) with data augmentation and test-time fine-tuning.
result Deep CAMA shows superior robustness against unseen manipulations compared to traditional models.
New method learns various data manipulation schemes for model training.
problem Improving model training with data manipulation.
method Adapts RL reward learning algorithm for data manipulation learning.
result Significant improvement in classification performance.
This paper studies poisoning attacks in episodic RL and discovers their effectiveness depends on reward bounds.
problem Understanding security threats to RL algorithms through poisoning attacks.
method Examined two types of poisoning attacks: reward and action manipulation, in bounded and unbounded reward settings.
result The effectiveness of poisoning attacks depends on reward bounds, with different attack costs and success rates.
Manipulating video content is easier than ever. Due to the misuse potential of manipulated content, multiple detection techniques that analyze the pixel data from the videos have been proposed. However, clever manipulators should also carefully forge the metadata and auxiliary header information, which is harder to do …
Donors who defer their donations volunteer less in the future.
problem Volunteer labor can be less beneficial to charities than its costs.
method Regression discontinuity design with a procedure to handle manipulation.
result Donor manipulation invalidates standard regression discontinuity design, but a new method provides partial identification bounds.
In this work we propose a model that can manipulate individual visual attributes of objects in a real scene using examples of how respective attribute manipulations affect the output of a simulation. As an example, we train our model to manipulate the expression of a human face using nonphotorealistic 3D renders of a f…
Prediction markets can be manipulated by traders who can move contract settlements, harming price discovery.
problem Manipulation of settlement times in prediction markets leads to unfair wealth transfer and harms price discovery.
method Developed a model showing how settlement manipulation transfers wealth and harms price discovery, and observed real-world effects on Polymarket's Bitcoin contract.
result Manipulators capture significant profits from retail traders, especially when settlement times are short.
DIGIT is a low-cost tactile sensor for in-hand manipulation.
problem Difficulty in sensing contact forces limits robotic manipulation.
method DIGIT miniaturizes and improves a vision-based tactile sensor.
result DIGIT enables better control of interactions with the environment.
Paper presents a new port-Hamiltonian model for vehicle manipulators.
problem Complex mechanical systems' energy flow and conservation.
method Derives port-Hamiltonian dynamics from Hamiltonian reduction theory.
result Establishes mathematical equivalence with existing formulations.
Study examines reasons for Nutek India's share price drop.
problem Deep fall in Nutek India Limited's share price.
method Analyzed transactions and market forces to identify manipulation.
result Identified intentional interference in supply and demand.
The paper discusses decades of stock market manipulation and its benefits.
problem Manipulating public equity markets over 30 years.
method Quantitative analysis of market impact and price movement.
result Price manipulation is a valuable and profitable tool.
Deep semi-supervised anomaly detection improves fraud detection in financial markets.
problem Detecting fraud in high-frequency financial data with limited labeled examples.
method Evaluation of Deep Semi-Supervised Anomaly Detection (Deep SAD) on proprietary limit order book data.
result Deep SAD significantly improves fraud detection accuracy with minimal labeled data.
Adaptive financial dataflow system improves model robustness in dynamic markets.
problem Static historical data leads to poor performance in dynamic financial markets.
method Drift-aware dataflow system with adaptive control and optimization.
result Enhanced model robustness and improved risk-adjusted returns.