ContraSim learns financial headline similarities for market forecasting.
problem Financial market forecasting accuracy improvement.
method ContraSim framework with Weighted Headline Augmentation and WSSCL.
result Improves financial forecasting accuracy by 7%.
ChatGPT predicts stock market reactions from news headlines without financial training.
problem Predicting stock price movements using non-financial data.
method Used post-knowledge-cutoff headlines to train ChatGPT-4, which forecasts stock market reactions.
result ChatGPT-4 can predict stock market reactions with high accuracy, especially for small stocks and negative news.
Predict stock movement with news headlines using BERT embeddings.
problem Predicting stock price movement after financial news.
method Fine-Tuned Contextualized-Embedding Recurrent Neural Network (FT-CE-RNN) using BERT.
result Obtains state-of-the-art results on stock movement prediction task.
NIFTY dataset for financial forecasting models.
problem Improving financial market forecasting with LLMs.
method Two datasets for supervised and reinforcement learning.
result Demonstrates applications in stock price prediction.
The paper uses news headlines to predict stock prices using embeddings.
problem Predicting stock prices using news headlines.
method Using OpenAI-based text embedding models and PCA to create vector encodings of news headlines, then training machine learning models on financial data.
result Headline data embeddings improve stock price prediction by at least 40%.
Quantum computing promises new financial modeling.
problem Traditional financial modeling limitations.
method Overview of quantum computing applications in finance.
result Quantum computing can enhance financial modeling.
ChatGPT predicts stock market movements based on Bloomberg headlines, showing a positive correlation over short to medium terms.
problem Predicting stock market movements using news headlines.
method Used a two-stage prompt approach with a dataset of Bloomberg market summaries from 2010 to 2023.
result ChatGPT's sentiment scores correlate positively with future equity market returns over short to medium terms, with a negative correlation over longer horizons.
Anonymizing company names in financial news improves trading performance, contrary to initial expectations.
problem Look-ahead and distraction biases in sentiment analysis of financial news.
method Investigated trading strategies based on original and anonymized headlines, comparing performance.
result Anonymized headlines outperform original in-sample, suggesting distraction effect is stronger.
Optimizing news headlines is important for publishers and media sites. A compelling headline will increase readership, user engagement and social shares. At Yahoo Front Page, headline testing is carried out using a test-rollout strategy: we first allocate equal proportion of the traffic to each headline variation for a…
Hybrid engine analyzes news sentiment for markets in real-time.
problem Real-time market analysis of news sentiment.
method Three-way ensemble learning combining financial lexicon, adaptive TF-IDF clustering, and auto-calibrated weighting.
result Adaptive statistical clustering learner improves adaptability to market changes.
This paper attempts to provide a state of the art in trend prediction using news headlines. We present the research done on predicting DJIA trends using Natural Language Processing. We will explain the different algorithms we have used as well as the various embedding techniques attempted. We rely on statistical and de…
Deep RL model uses multimodal data for better stock portfolio optimization.
problem Optimizing trading strategies for SP100 stocks using complex data sources.
method Multimodal deep reinforcement learning with state tensors, CNNs, and RNNs.
result Agent outperforms standard benchmarks in portfolio performance.
CNN predicts stock fluctuations using company news headlines.
problem Predicting next-day stock fluctuations based on company-specific news.
method Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) with reduced filter dimensions and multiple hidden layers. Fine-tuned word embeddings and various filter widths.
result 61.7% classification accuracy achieved using pre-learned embeddings.
Sparse and short news headlines can be arbitrary, noisy, and ambiguous, making it difficult for classic topic model LDA (latent Dirichlet allocation) designed for accommodating long text to discover knowledge from them. Nonetheless, some of the existing research about text-based crude oil forecasting employs LDA to exp…
LOLA uses LLMs to optimize content delivery, outperforming traditional methods.
problem Identifying the most engaging headlines for user engagement.
method LOLA integrates LLMs with adaptive experimentation to optimize content delivery.
result LOLA outperforms traditional methods in optimizing user engagement.
Paper develops a risk scoring framework for tokenized RWA markets.
problem Tokenized assets may not reflect true risk due to illiquidity and concentration.
method Develops a risk scoring framework based on observable indicators.
result Assets with limited transfer activity and concentrated ownership have high empirical risk.
Financial market prediction on the basis of online sentiment tracking has drawn a lot of attention recently. However, most results in this emerging domain rely on a unique, particular combination of data sets and sentiment tracking tools. This makes it difficult to disambiguate measurement and instrument effects from f…
Predicting market volatility from financial news and tweets.
problem Quantifying future volatility and returns in financial modeling.
method Topic modeling and sentiment analysis of financial news and tweets.
result Positive sentiment in tweets is negatively correlated with market volatility.
A determinantal point process (DPP) is a random process useful for modeling the combinatorial problem of subset selection. In particular, DPPs encourage a random subset Y to contain a diverse set of items selected from a base set Y. For example, we might use a DPP to display a set of news headlines that are relevant to…
Green bond leaks impact equity markets, altering investor reactions.
problem Green bond leaks affect equity market reactions.
method Identified 259 instances of pre-announcement leaks in 2,036 green bond headlines.
result News leaks significantly alter equity trading dynamics and investor reactions.
Deep learning model optimizes portfolios by integrating news sentiment, stock relationships, and price data.
problem Optimizing portfolio weights using traditional methods introduces instability.
method Combines LSTM, GAT, and sentiment analysis in a unified pipeline.
result Delivers higher cumulative returns and Sharpe ratios compared to benchmarks.
Fake news are nowadays an issue of pressing concern, given their recent rise as a potential threat to high-quality journalism and well-informed public discourse. The Fake News Challenge (FNC-1) was organized in 2017 to encourage the development of machine learning-based classification systems for stance detection (i.e.…
Three years ago we found a statistically reliable link between ConocoPhillips' (NYSE: COP) stock price and the difference between the core and headline CPI in the United States. In this article, the original relationship is revisited with new data available since 2009. The agreement between the observed monthly closing…
Study shows data breaches cause significant financial losses for firms, especially in health sector.
problem Understanding the economic impact of cyber incidents on listed firms.
method Event study using abnormal returns over 2012-2022, adjusting for event-induced variance and residual cross-correlation.
result Data breaches cause significant financial losses for firms, especially in health sector.
New core inflation measure predicts future headline inflation.
problem Creating a better measure of core inflation for timely policy decisions.
method Assemblage Regression, a nonnegative ridge regression that optimizes subcomponent weights.
result Significant improvements in forecasting medium-term inflation developments.
Transformer model predicts stock trends using technical data and sentiment analysis.
problem Lack of accurate long-term stock trend prediction using traditional models.
method Developed a Transformer-based model integrating technical stock data and sentiment analysis.
result Transformer model shows significant improvement in directional accuracy over RNNs, especially for longer sequence lengths.
GeomHerd predicts herding behavior before market prices move, using Ricci curvature of agent interaction graphs.
problem Quantifying herding behavior in markets that lags behind actual price movements.
method Develops a geometric framework to track coordination on agent interaction graphs, bypassing lag in price-correlation statistics.
result GeomHerd anticipates herding long before market baselines, with significant lead times in predictions.
Sarcasm Detection has enjoyed great interest from the research community, however the task of predicting sarcasm in a text remains an elusive problem for machines. Past studies mostly make use of twitter datasets collected using hashtag based supervision but such datasets are noisy in terms of labels and language. To o…
The safety and resilience of fully autonomous vehicles (AVs) are of significant concern, as exemplified by several headline-making accidents. While AV development today involves verification, validation, and testing, end-to-end assessment of AV systems under accidental faults in realistic driving scenarios has been lar…
This paper predicts stock prices using BERT for sentiment analysis and GAN for technical indicators.
problem Predicting stock prices using advanced techniques.
method BERT for sentiment analysis, GAN for technical indicators, comparison with baseline models.
result GAN outperformed baseline models in predicting stock prices.
The recent advances in Natural Language Processing have been a boon for well-represented languages in terms of available curated data and research resources. One of the challenges for low-resourced languages is clear guidelines on the collection, curation and preparation of datasets for different use-cases. In this wor…
New insights show Medicaid impacts on ED use vary widely, with some groups seeing significant increases.
problem Understanding the varied impacts of Medicaid on emergency department use.
method Causal machine learning methods to identify heterogeneous impacts.
result Meaningful heterogeneity in the effect of Medicaid on ED use, with a small group driving the overall effect.
Interpretable semantic textual similarity (iSTS) task adds a crucial explanatory layer to pairwise sentence similarity. We address various components of this task: chunk level semantic alignment along with assignment of similarity type and score for aligned chunks with a novel system presented in this paper. We propose…
Modern methods for data visualization via dimensionality reduction, such as t-SNE, usually have performance issues that prohibit their application to large amounts of high-dimensional data. In this work, we propose NCVis -- a high-performance dimensionality reduction method built on a sound statistical basis of noise c…
Study estimates 163 million online freelancers globally.
problem Estimating the number of online workers globally.
method Combining data from various online labour platforms.
result Headline estimate of 163 million registered profiles.
In this paper, we develop new techniques for understanding surfaces in CP2 via bridge trisections. Trisections are a novel approach to smooth 4-manifold topology, introduced by Gay and Kirby, that provide an avenue to apply 3-dimensional tools to 4-dimensional problems. Meier and Zupan subsequently develope…
We detect lookahead bias in LLM forecasts using a novel statistical method.
problem Detecting lookahead bias in LLM-generated economic forecasts.
method Developed a statistical procedure using date-only recall queries and estimated Lookahead Propensity (LAP).
result LLM forecasts are contaminated with lookahead bias, as indicated by a positive interaction between LAP and the forecast in accuracy regressions.
Study uses simulation-based inference to decode brain activity from synthetic stimuli.
problem Reversing the process of brain activity emulation to recover stimuli or their properties.
method Pairing brain emulator with LLMs to learn a probabilistic mapping from brain maps to stimulus parameters.
result LLMs can serve as controllable stimulus generators and parameters can be recovered from brain maps.
New approach uses autoregressive models to explore and quantify uncertainty in decision-making.
problem Quantifying and exploring uncertainty in online decision-making.
method Reformulates uncertainty as missing future outcomes, training autoregressive models for next-outcome prediction.
result Establishes a reduction from online learning to offline next-outcome prediction, controlling Bayesian regret by sequence prediction loss.
Bayesian framework uses AI-generated data to improve parameter estimation.
problem Parameter estimation in models with unknown or unspecified likelihood.
method Exponentially tilted empirical likelihood with Dirichlet process posterior.
result AI-generated data can provide useful regularization for parameter estimation.
Unfulfilled expectations from macro-economic initiatives during the Great Recession and the massive shift into globalization echo today with political upheaval, anti-establishment propaganda, and looming trade/currency wars that threaten domestic and international value chains. Once stable entities like the EU now look…
Study examines financial structure's impact on non-financial firms' growth in Kenya.
problem Declining financial performance and growth of non-financial firms listed at Nairobi Securities Exchange.
method Analyzes the effect of financial structure on financial growth.
result Established the impact of financial structure on non-financial firms' growth.
Study shows financial literacy, social capital, and financial tech positively impact financial inclusion of Indonesian students.
problem Financial literacy, social capital, and financial technology's impact on financial inclusion of Indonesian students.
method Quantitative research using questionnaires distributed to 100 students from 7 private colleges in Tangerang, Indonesia.
result Financial literacy, social capital, and financial technology have a positive and significant influence on financial inclusion.
Financial planners helped preserve and increase household net financial assets during the Great Recession.
problem Impact of financial planners on household net financial assets during the Great Recession.
method Utilized 2007-2009 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) panel dataset, analyzed 3,862 respondents.
result Starting to use a financial planner during the Great Recession had a positive impact on preserving and increasing household net financial assets.
Framework for AI healthcare products from concept to market.
problem Failure of AI products to reach clinics despite promising potential.
method Decision-making framework for AI healthcare product development.
result Guides through a three-phase process to market launch of validated AI products.
Motivated by recent financial crises significant research efforts have been put into studying contagion effects and herding behaviour in financial markets. Much less has been said about influence of financial news on financial markets. We propose a novel measure of collective behaviour in financial news on the Web, New…
Proposes LSTM for financial market trend forecasting.
problem Challenges in financial market trend forecasting.
method Uses LSTM for financial market trend forecasting.
result Improves performance compared to traditional methods.
Financial system being the place of metting capital flows (equality between saving and investment), a volatility of capital flows can destroy the robustness and good working of financial system, it means subvert financial stability. The same a weak financial system, few regulated and bad manage can exacerbate volatilit…