A new neural network framework ADNN improves financial feature construction.
problem Constructing highly informative financial features.
method Neural network (ADNN) with domain knowledge, pre-training, and data augmentation.
result ADNN produces more diversified and informative features than genetic programming.
ADNN uses prior knowledge to construct financial features.
problem Feature construction in financial trading.
method Tailored neural network structure with domain knowledge.
result ADNN constructs more informative features than genetic programming.
Paper proposes NNAFC for automatic financial factor construction.
problem Manual factor construction is time-consuming and prone to bias.
method NNAFC uses neural networks to automatically construct diversified financial factors.
result NNAFC outperforms GP in constructing more informative and diversified factors.
Graph neural networks improve financial modeling of complex data.
problem Complex financial data and market volatility.
method Review and categorize GNN models for financial graphs.
result GNN models enhance performance in financial tasks.
Multiple Kernel Learning (MKL) is used to replicate the signal combination process that trading rules embody when they aggregate multiple sources of financial information when predicting an asset's price movements. A set of financially motivated kernels is constructed for the EURUSD currency pair and is used to predict…
U-CNNpred improves stock market prediction by extracting general market patterns.
problem Improving financial market prediction through better feature extraction.
method A CNN-based framework trained on diverse historical data to identify common market patterns.
result U-CNNpred outperforms baseline algorithms in predicting market directional movements.
Model predicts risk-adjusted returns across various financial markets.
problem Stationary models fail in predicting risk-adjusted returns due to market regime changes.
method Asset-independent regime-switching model using hidden Markov models.
result Accurately detects bull, bear, and high volatility periods for improved risk-adjusted returns.
Study causal financial signals for non-stationary markets, improving short-term forecasts.
problem Short-term forecasting in non-stationary financial markets under causal constraints.
method Construct causal signals from heterogeneous micro-features using causal centering, linear aggregation, Kalman filter, and forward-like operator.
result Causally constructed observables can exhibit substantial economic relevance in specific regimes but degrade under regime shifts.
We propose here a multiplex network approach to investigate simultaneously different types of dependency in complex data sets. In particular, we consider multiplex networks made of four layers corresponding respectively to linear, non-linear, tail, and partial correlations among a set of financial time series. We const…
This paper distills financial indicators into neural networks to reduce noise and improve accuracy.
problem Reduction of non-stationary noise in financial time series data.
method Co-distillation of smaller networks trained on indicators to transfer prior knowledge and reduce overfitting.
result The proposed method outperforms traditional methods in terms of speed and accuracy on real financial datasets.
Diffolio uses a diffusion model for multivariate financial forecasting and portfolio construction.
problem Probabilistic forecasting of multivariate financial time-series with complex cross-sectional dependencies.
method Diffolio employs a denoising network with hierarchical attention architecture, incorporating asset-level and market-level layers and a correlation-guided regularizer.
result Diffolio outperforms various probabilistic forecasting baselines in multivariate forecasting accuracy and portfolio performance.
We construct a financial "Turing test" to determine whether human subjects can differentiate between actual vs. randomized financial returns. The experiment consists of an online video-game (http://arora.ccs.neu.edu) where players are challenged to distinguish actual financial market returns from random temporal permut…
This study uses NLP to detect financial risks from documents.
problem Detecting and predicting financial risks in documents.
method NLP model design, text preprocessing, feature extraction, machine learning.
result NLP model effectively identifies and predicts financial risks.
Based on criteria of mathematical simplicity and consistency with empirical market data, a model with volatility driven by fractional noise has been constructed which provides a fairly accurate mathematical parametrization of the data. Here, some features of the model are discussed and, using agent-based models, one tr…
The authors seek financial datasets to benchmark feature engineering methods on US market data.
problem Improving predictive models for financial data science competitions.
method Feature engineering methods applied to multivariate time-series data from the US market.
result Predictive power of models tested against Numerai-Signals targets.
Enhanced financial reward with shuffled feature CNN-DRL.
problem Improving reward in financial data using CNN-DRL.
method Applying shuffled features to financial data for CNN-DRL.
result Substantial enhancement in reward attainment.
This paper uses feature preprocessing and RRL to automate profitable financial trading.
problem Automating profitable financial trading strategies.
method Feature preprocessing (PCA, DWT) followed by Recurrent Reinforcement Learning (RRL).
result The proposed strategy is effective, robust, and mitigates RRL's drawbacks.
Study compares model-free valuation to actual financial outcomes, finds it slightly conservative.
problem Evaluating the quality of model-free valuation approaches for financial derivatives.
method Empirical analysis using historical option prices from S&P 500 constituents.
result Model-free valuation approaches are only marginally more conservative than industry-standard models.
Financial market is an example of complex system, which is characterized by a highly intricate organization and the emergence of collective behavior. In this paper, we quantify this emergent dynamics in the financial market by using concepts of network synchronization. We consider networks constructed by the correlatio…
This study examines how data types affect ML algorithms' performance in Bitcoin price prediction.
problem Improving the accuracy of Bitcoin price forecasts for financial gain.
method Constructed continuous and trend data from Bitcoin's historical data, applied various ML algorithms, and compared their performance using accuracy and AUC.
result Data type significantly impacts ML algorithms' performance in Bitcoin price prediction.
A new DRL model for intraday trading incorporating positional context.
problem Neglecting positional context in existing DRL intraday trading strategies.
method Introducing positional features into the state space of a DRL model.
result Significant improvement in profitability and risk-adjusted metrics.
A method uses Wasserstein clustering to simplify financial data analysis.
problem Processing and analyzing granular financial data with missing values and identifying clusters.
method Variant of Lloyd's algorithm applied to probability distributions, using Wasserstein barycenters.
result Demonstrated usefulness in financial regulation context.
Generative model uses random convolutional features to create financial time series.
problem Generating realistic financial time series with limited data and avoiding overfitting.
method Train generators by matching random convolutional features of real and generated time series, using SOCK (SOft Competing Kernels) feature map.
result Generators trained with random SOCK features outperform baselines across various financial datasets.
DoubleEnsemble improves financial predictions by selecting key features and reweighting samples.
problem Overfitting and instability in financial data analysis.
method Sample reweighting and feature selection using learning trajectory and shuffling.
result DoubleEnsemble outperforms baseline methods in financial prediction tasks.
Enhances feature augmentation for high-dimensional learning.
problem Correlated high-dimensional measurements require dimensionality reduction.
method Augment features with factors extracted from design matrices and their transformations.
result Significantly weakens correlations between input variables, improving interpretability and numerical stability.
Fractional processes have gained popularity in financial modeling due to the dependence structure of their increments and the roughness of their sample paths. The non-Markovianity of these processes gives, however, rise to conceptual and practical difficulties in computation and calibration. To address these issues, we…
The economical world consists of a highly interconnected and interdependent network of firms. Here we develop temporal and structural network tools to analyze the state of the economy. Our analysis indicates that a strong clustering can be a warning sign. Reduction in diversity, which was an essential aspect of the dyn…
A3T-GCN model forecasts FTSE100 stock prices using technical indicators and financial ratios.
problem Forecasting closing stock prices of FTSE100 constituents.
method Hybrid A3T-GCN architecture using technical indicators, financial ratios, and sector correlations.
result A3T-GCN model improves prediction accuracy with annualized log-returns and shorter sequence lengths.
SAE-FiRE extracts key financial info from long documents, improving earnings surprise predictions.
problem Predicting earnings surprises from long, redundant financial documents.
method Sparse Autoencoder feature selection to filter out noise and identify key dimensions.
result SAE-FiRE significantly outperforms baseline approaches in financial datasets.
Traditional sentiment construction in finance relies heavily on the dictionary-based approach, with a few exceptions using simple machine learning techniques such as Naive Bayes classifier. While the current literature has not yet invoked the rapid advancement in the natural language processing, we construct in this re…
StockEmotions dataset for financial sentiment and emotion analysis.
problem Limited resources for financial sentiment analysis.
method Collects 10,000 English comments from StockTwits, categorizes emotions into 12 classes.
result DistilBERT outperforms other models in sentiment classification, and Temporal Attention LSTM model achieves best performance in multivariate time series forecasting.
FSA improves financial time series forecasting accuracy.
problem Complexity and unreliability in financial time series forecasting.
method Feature selection with annealing (FSA) using Lasso and Boruta methods.
result FSA enhances ML model performance in financial forecasting.
ContraSim learns financial headline similarities for market forecasting.
problem Financial market forecasting accuracy improvement.
method ContraSim framework with Weighted Headline Augmentation and WSSCL.
result Improves financial forecasting accuracy by 7%.
FCOC framework improves financial volatility forecasting.
problem Tackles dual challenges of feature fidelity and model responsiveness in financial volatility forecasting.
method Synergizes fractal feature extraction and dynamic chaotic oscillation processing.
result Demonstrates profound and generalizable impact on S\&P 500 and DJI datasets.
New algorithm improves fraud detection by analyzing financial account relationships.
problem High false positive rates and missed detections in conventional fraud detection systems.
method Personalized PageRank (PPR) algorithm to capture social dynamics of fraud.
result Integrating PPR enhances fraud detection model's predictive power.
In complex financial systems, the sector structure and volatility clustering are respectively important features of the spatial and temporal correlations. However, the microscopic generation mechanism of the sector structure is not yet understood. Especially, how to produce these two features in one model remains chall…
AI system analyzes financial analyst recommendations and track records for portfolio construction.
problem Human PMs rely on analyst recommendations and track records for portfolio decisions.
method Develops AI-based Recommender Systems to replicate analyst conviction and track records.
result AI can improve portfolio construction by integrating analyst conviction and track records.
Study proposes a new financial market representation for machine learning.
problem Complex analysis of financial time series for machine learning.
method Volume-price-based statistical approach.
result Proposed method outperforms price levels-based method on liquid markets.
This paper uses PCA and FA for feature selection in credit rating.
problem Selecting important features for credit rating prediction.
method Principal Component Analysis and Factor Analysis.
result Factor Analysis reduces feature set significantly without losing much accuracy.
New distress dictionary improves bankruptcy prediction from disclosure text.
problem Bankruptcy prediction from financial disclosures.
method Proposes a distress dictionary based on managers' sentences, quantifies linguistic features, and builds predictive models.
result Predictive models based on the distress dictionary outperform existing methods.
The Ising model replicates financial asset statistical features.
problem Replicating statistical characteristics of financial markets.
method Employed the Ising model and Monte Carlo simulations.
result The Ising model can replicate most financial asset statistical features.
Simple feature engineering beats complex models in financial prediction.
problem Understanding when complex models outperform simple alternatives in financial prediction.
method Independent Component Analysis (ICA), Wavelet Coherence, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks with attention mechanisms.
result A simple linear model using normalized flows achieves superior returns compared to complex models.
Graph neural networks improve SME credit risk assessment.
problem Improving credit risk assessment for small and medium enterprises (SMEs).
method Graph neural networks were used to model the relationships between financial indicators of enterprises, creating a graph structure and embedding representations for credit risk prediction.
result The proposed model accurately predicts enterprise credit levels, demonstrating robustness and effectiveness.
Study shows integrating acoustic features in financial forecasting models can degrade performance.
problem Predicting stock market volatility from corporate earnings calls using speech features.
method Empirical investigation of acoustic feature extraction in teleconference environments using a two-stream late-fusion architecture.
result Integrating acoustic features via late fusion significantly degraded performance, reducing recall to 47.08%.
Large language models learn company embeddings from SEC filings.
problem Lack of a rigorous definition of company similarity.
method Pre-trained and finetuned large language models (LLMs) to learn embeddings from SEC filings.
result LLMs can reproduce GICS classifications and indicate similar financial performance.
The study uses machine learning to predict financial market trends.
problem Predicting financial market trends using low-frequency data.
method Modular online machine learning framework using stacked autoencoders and neural networks.
result The approach can predict financial market feature fluctuations effectively.
CNN model predicts financial market movement with better performance.
problem Difficult to predict financial markets due to complex dynamics.
method Proposes a novel one-dimensional CNN model for financial market prediction.
result CNN model achieves more robust and profitable performance than previous approaches.
HHT feature generation enhances financial time series forecasting.
problem Forecasting nonstationary financial time series.
method CEEMD and HHT for decomposition, machine learning integration.
result HHT-enhanced models outperform traditional models in forecasting.