A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Max-rank improves multiple testing in conformal prediction.
The problem of multiple hypothesis testing arises when there are more than one hypothesis to be tested simultaneously for statistical significance. This is a very common situation in many data mining applications. For instance, assessing simultaneously the significance of all frequent itemsets of a single dataset entai…
The paper introduces localized conformal p-values for conditional testing problems.
A new framework for brain mapping using statistical agnostic methods.
Assigning significance in high-dimensional regression is challenging. Most computationally efficient selection algorithms cannot guard against inclusion of noise variables. Asymptotically valid p-values are not available. An exception is a recent proposal by Wasserman and Roeder (2008) which splits the data into two pa…
A new conformal prediction framework for two-stage models identifies stage-wise uncertainty.
New method detects biomarker-treatment interactions in clinical trials.
CAT method learns causal structure of directed trees efficiently.
Recent results in coupled or temporal graphical models offer schemes for estimating the relationship structure between features when the data come from related (but distinct) longitudinal sources. A novel application of these ideas is for analyzing group-level differences, i.e., in identifying if trends of estimated ob…
Hierarchical-CPI improves variable importance measurement for medical data.
Two tests identify heterogeneous components in distributed learning.
Multiple hypothesis testing is a significant problem in nearly all neuroimaging studies. In order to correct for this phenomena, we require a reliable estimate of the Family-Wise Error Rate (FWER). The well known Bonferroni correction method, while simple to implement, is quite conservative, and can substantially under…
Major advances have been made regarding the utilization of artificial intelligence in health care. In particular, deep learning approaches have been successfully applied for automated and assisted disease diagnosis and prognosis based on complex and high-dimensional data. However, despite all justified enthusiasm, over…
Proposes a method to estimate and infer networks from multiple high-dimensional point processes.
Identifying dependency in multivariate data is a common inference task that arises in numerous applications. However, existing nonparametric independence tests typically require computation that scales at least quadratically with the sample size, making it difficult to apply them to massive data. Moreover, resampling i…
Novel causal effect estimators and distributionally robust prediction methods.
This paper tackles worst-class error rate in classification tasks.
Study controls error rates of binary classifiers using hypothesis testing.
We show how to compute the Bayes error-rate for speaker verifiers.
This research examines how the error rate of nearest neighbor classifiers varies with dataset size.
This paper reviews methods for constructing confidence intervals for error rates in 1:1 matching tasks.
Ex ante forecast outcomes should be interpreted as counterfactuals (potential histories), with errors as the spread between outcomes. Reapplying measurements of uncertainty about the estimation errors of the estimation errors of an estimation leads to branching counterfactuals. Such recursions of epistemic uncertainty …
AdaStop improves statistical testing for Deep RL algorithm comparisons.
This research analyzes the error convergence rate of GAN models.
Overrides of credit ratings are important correctives of ratings that are determined by statistical rating models. Financial institutions and banking regulators agree on this because on the one hand errors with ratings of corporates or banks can have fatal consequences for the lending institutions and on the other hand…
We consider least squares estimation in a general nonparametric regression model. The rate of convergence of the least squares estimator (LSE) for the unknown regression function is well studied when the errors are sub-Gaussian. We find upper bounds on the rates of convergence of the LSE when the errors have uniformly …
Optimal number of voters for a voting ensemble can be estimated from the distribution of classifier errors.
Crowdsourcing is an effective tool for human-powered computation on many tasks challenging for computers. In this paper, we provide finite-sample exponential bounds on the error rate (in probability and in expectation) of hyperplane binary labeling rules under the Dawid-Skene crowdsourcing model. The bounds can be appl…
This article studies the achievable guarantees on the error rates of certain learning algorithms, with particular focus on refining logarithmic factors. Many of the results are based on a general technique for obtaining bounds on the error rates of sample-consistent classifiers with monotonic error regions, in the real…
We address the problem of learning to benchmark the best achievable classifier performance. In this problem the objective is to establish statistically consistent estimates of the Bayes misclassification error rate without having to learn a Bayes-optimal classifier. Our learning to benchmark framework improves on previ…
Paper assesses error estimates of Random Forests classification.
Optimal classification rules control error rates in multiclass mixture models.
We carefully study how well minimizing convex surrogate loss functions, corresponds to minimizing the misclassification error rate for the problem of binary classification with linear predictors. In particular, we show that amongst all convex surrogate losses, the hinge loss gives essentially the best possible bound, o…
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo on ReLU networks is inefficient due to large local error.
Unified error analysis for discrete flow models.
OptiNet achieves near-minimax error rates with compression in Euclidean space.
A method for making predictions with a reject option using conformal prediction.
Study on error rates for approximating rough volatility models.
This paper studies the problem of estimating the grahpon model - the underlying generating mechanism of a network. Graphon estimation arises in many applications such as predicting missing links in networks and learning user preferences in recommender systems. The graphon model deals with a random graph of vertices…
The paper reconciles two conflicting fairness criteria in algorithmic risk scores.
Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is the most common nonparametric method for estimating the volatility structure of Gaussian interest rate models. One major difficulty in the estimation of these models is the fact that forward rate curves are not directly observable from the market so that non-trivial observational e…
Paper establishes universal lower bounds and optimal rates for clustering sub-exponential mixture models.
Paper develops an online learning algorithm for functional data models.
In this paper we consider the cluster estimation problem under the Stochastic Block Model. We show that the semidefinite programming (SDP) formulation for this problem achieves an error rate that decays exponentially in the signal-to-noise ratio. The error bound implies weak recovery in the sparse graph regime with bou…
GANs learn distributions well from samples, with rates depending on intrinsic dimension.
Study problem-dependent rates in statistical learning theory, achieving optimal generalization error bounds.
The stochastic gradient descent (SGD) optimization algorithm plays a central role in a series of machine learning applications. The scientific literature provides a vast amount of upper error bounds for the SGD method. Much less attention as been paid to proving lower error bounds for the SGD method. It is the key cont…
We analyze the errors arising from discrete readjustment of the hedging portfolio when hedging options in exponential Levy models, and establish the rate at which the expected squared error goes to zero when the readjustment frequency increases. We compare the quadratic hedging strategy with the common market practice …