Accurate on-device keyword spotting (KWS) with low false accept and false reject rate is crucial to customer experience for far-field voice control of conversational agents. It is particularly challenging to maintain low false reject rate in real world conditions where there is (a) ambient noise from external sources s…
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
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48 results for “false rejection”
New method controls false discoveries in online testing with deadlines.
problem Controlling false discoveries in online hypothesis testing with decision deadlines.
method Benjamini-Hochberg-type procedure over a moving window of hypotheses with adaptive threshold parameters.
result Controls false discovery rate at every stage and adaptively chosen stopping times.
The paper provides high-probability bounds on false discovery proportions in conformal inference.
problem Existing methods fail to provide high-probability bounds on the realized false discovery proportion.
method Constructing a high-probability envelope for the empirical distribution function of null conformal p-values by sampling from their joint distribution.
result Establishes finite-sample, distribution-free upper bounds on the FDP that hold simultaneously over all possible rejection thresholds.
In hypothesis testing, a false discovery occurs when a hypothesis is incorrectly rejected due to noise in the sample. When adaptively testing multiple hypotheses, the probability of a false discovery increases as more tests are performed. Thus the problem of False Discovery Rate (FDR) control is to find a procedure for…
We propose a linear-time, single-pass, top-down algorithm for multiple testing on directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), where nodes represent hypotheses and edges specify a partial ordering in which hypotheses must be tested. The procedure is guaranteed to reject a sub-DAG with bounded false discovery rate (FDR) while satisf…
Systemic Risk Surveillanceecon.EM
Online surveillance detects systemic risk in financial markets.
problem Detecting and monitoring systemic risk in financial markets.
method Online monitoring procedures for multiple series, controlling for false rejections.
result Procedures allow timely detection of financial distress.
Multiple hypothesis testing is a core problem in statistical inference and arises in almost every scientific field. Given a set of null hypotheses , Benjamini and Hochberg introduced the false discovery rate (FDR), which is the expected proportion of false positives among rejected nu…
In the online multiple testing problem, p-values corresponding to different null hypotheses are observed one by one, and the decision of whether or not to reject the current hypothesis must be made immediately, after which the next p-value is observed. Alpha-investing algorithms to control the false discovery rate (FDR…
New methods control false discoveries near the boundary in conformal novelty detection.
problem Over-optimistic assessments near the rejection threshold in conformal novelty detection.
method Support line (SL) correction and alternative procedures to control boundary false discovery rate (bFDR).
result New procedures control the boundary false discovery rate (bFDR) in the conformal setting.
Online method selects candidates from data streams, ensuring irreversible decisions.
problem Conformal selection's incompatibility with irreversible decisions in online scenarios.
method Online Conformal Selection with Accept-to-Reject Changes (OCS-ARC) incorporating online Benjamini-Hochberg procedure.
result OCS-ARC controls FDR at or below nominal level, improving selection power.
In many practical applications of multiple hypothesis testing using the False Discovery Rate (FDR), the given hypotheses can be naturally partitioned into groups, and one may not only want to control the number of false discoveries (wrongly rejected null hypotheses), but also the number of falsely discovered groups of …
AdaPT-GMM improves multiple testing power with covariates.
problem Powerful and robust multiple testing with covariates.
method Covariate-assisted Gaussian mixture model with adaptive thresholding.
result AdaPT-GMM delivers high power in various scenarios.
New findings control FDR for online testing methods under positive dependence.
problem Maintaining FDR control for online testing methods under positive dependence.
method Developed new methods to control FDR for online testing procedures under positive dependence.
result SAFFRON and LORD control FDR under positive dependence, not just conditional superuniformity.
ELS framework improves safety alignment by dynamically steering LLMs towards helpful responses.
problem Over-Refusal in Aligned Large Language Models
method Fine-tuning free framework using an Energy-Based Model (EBM) to dynamically steer LLMs during inference.
result Extensive experiments show a significant reduction in false refusals (from 57.3% to 82.6%) while maintaining safety performance.
Multiple hypothesis testing, a situation when we wish to consider many hypotheses, is a core problem in statistical inference that arises in almost every scientific field. In this setting, controlling the false discovery rate (FDR), which is the expected proportion of type I error, is an important challenge for making …
Pliable rejection samplingstat.ML
PRS improves rejection sampling by learning better proposals.
problem High rejection rate in traditional rejection sampling.
method PRS uses a kernel estimator to learn better sampling proposals.
result PRS guarantees a low number of accepted samples.
Paper tackles regression with cost-based rejection, balancing prediction and rejection costs.
problem Regression with cost-based rejection, balancing prediction and rejection costs in a continuous target space.
method Formulated expected risk, derived Bayes optimal solution, proposed surrogate loss function.
result Bayes optimal solution can be recovered by the proposed surrogate loss function.
We provide a method for approximating Bayesian inference using rejection sampling. We not only make the process efficient, but also dramatically reduce the memory required relative to conventional methods by combining rejection sampling with particle filtering. We also provide an approximate form of rejection sampling …
We propose an alternative framework to existing setups for controlling false alarms when multiple A/B tests are run over time. This setup arises in many practical applications, e.g. when pharmaceutical companies test new treatment options against control pills for different diseases, or when internet companies test the…
Algorithmic trading systems on DEXs reject most candidate tokens, but the counterfactual outcome of rejected candidates is rarely measured.
problem Measuring the counterfactual outcome of rejected tokens in algorithmic trading systems on decentralized exchanges.
method Post-Rejection Follow-up Sampling (PRFS) introduces a methodology for collecting and analyzing the data needed to evaluate filter precision against actual market outcomes of rejected candidates.
result PRFS produces the data needed to evaluate filter precision against actual market outcomes of rejected candidates, not against synthetic backtest reconstructions.
RMT-Net tackles biased credit scoring data by learning from both default/non-default and rejection/approval tasks.
problem Missing-not-at-random selection bias in financial credit scoring data.
method Reject-aware Multi-Task Network (RMT-Net) that leverages the correlation between default/non-default and rejection/approval tasks.
result RMT-Net improves credit scoring models by learning from both default/non-default and rejection/approval tasks.
Optimal regression with reject option using conditional variance thresholding.
problem Regression with reject option to handle uncertain predictions.
method Derive optimal rule based on thresholding conditional variance, semi-supervised estimation using labeled and unlabeled data.
result The predictor with reject option is almost as good as the optimal predictor in terms of risk and rejection rate.
A reject option improves partial-label learning's accuracy.
problem Ambiguously labeled data in real-world applications.
method Risk-consistent nearest-neighbor algorithm with a reject option.
result Our method provides the best trade-off between non-rejected predictions' number and accuracy.
A dealer manages quotes and rejection rules to control slippage risk in FX markets.
problem Managing inventory risk and latency risk in OTC FX market making.
method Dynamic programming and adiabatic-quadratic approximation to optimize quotes and rejection rules.
result Developed a method to optimize quotes and rejection rules for managing slippage risk.
A new approach to model rejection using density ratios.
problem Improving model performance through selective prediction.
method Optimization of a loss's risk with φ-divergence regularization to find an idealized data distribution.
result Model rejection can be made by comparing the density ratio of the idealized distribution to the actual data distribution.
Delayed rejection HMC improves sampling efficiency for multiscale distributions.
problem Hamiltonian Monte Carlo struggles with wide-ranging distributions, especially in high-curvature areas.
method Introduces a delayed rejection variant of HMC, using geometrically smaller step sizes for retries.
result Up to five-fold performance gains in effective sample size per gradient evaluation.
Credit scoring models support loan approval decisions in the financial services industry. Lenders train these models on data from previously granted credit applications, where the borrowers' repayment behavior has been observed. This approach creates sample bias. The scoring model (i.e., classifier) is trained on accep…
Paper connects rejection learning to Bhattacharyya divergence.
problem Learning models to abstain from predictions.
method Developed a link between rejection and thresholding different statistical divergences, focusing on Bhattacharyya divergence.
result Rejector obtained by joint ideal distribution corresponds to thresholding of skewed Bhattacharyya divergence.
We explore the application of end-to-end stateless temporal modeling to small-footprint keyword spotting as opposed to recurrent networks that model long-term temporal dependencies using internal states. We propose a model inspired by the recent success of dilated convolutions in sequence modeling applications, allowin…
Credit scoring models based on accepted applications may be biased and their consequences can have a statistical and economic impact. Reject inference is the process of attempting to infer the creditworthiness status of the rejected applications. In this research, we use deep generative models to develop two new semi-s…
Classification with Reject Option: Distribution-free Error Guarantees via Conformal Predictionstat.ML
A method for making predictions with a reject option using conformal prediction.
problem Uncertainty in machine learning predictions, especially when models are unsure.
method Formalizing ML with reject option, using conformal prediction for distribution-free error guarantees.
result Theoretical guarantees on error rate for prediction sets with distribution-free validity.
Statistical Properties and Power Analysis of Divergence Measures for Credit Risk Model Monitoringq-fin.ST
Study compares statistical properties and power of divergence measures for credit risk monitoring.
problem Detecting distributional shifts in credit risk models.
method Derives statistical properties and chi-square benchmark values for Jensen-Shannon Divergence and Kullback-Leibler Divergence, demonstrating their applicability in credit risk monitoring.
result Jensen-Shannon Divergence and Kullback-Leibler Divergence follow chi-square distributions and reveal practical trade-offs in minimizing false positives vs. detecting changes.
Transforms any test into anytime-valid with sample savings.
problem Sequential data invalidates classical test guarantees.
method Predicts test outcomes to create anytime-valid stopping rules.
result Ensures Type-I error control and near-optimal power.
Proposes a semi-Bayesian nonparametric estimator for MMD in GOF tests and GANs.
problem Challenges in goodness-of-fit testing for intractable models.
method Semi-Bayesian nonparametric estimator of MMD.
result Outperforms frequentist MMD-based methods in false rejection and acceptance rates.
We consider the problem of selective prediction (also known as reject option) in deep neural networks, and introduce SelectiveNet, a deep neural architecture with an integrated reject option. Existing rejection mechanisms are based mostly on a threshold over the prediction confidence of a pre-trained network. In contra…
A novel method for classification with rejection using ensemble of cost-sensitive classifiers.
problem Avoid risky misclassification in error-critical applications.
method Learning an ensemble of cost-sensitive classifiers.
result Improved classification accuracy and flexibility in loss selection.
Rejection Sampling is a fundamental Monte-Carlo method. It is used to sample from distributions admitting a probability density function which can be evaluated exactly at any given point, albeit at a high computational cost. However, without proper tuning, this technique implies a high rejection rate. Several methods h…
We consider the problem of detecting malware with deep learning models, where the malware may be combined with significant amounts of benign code. Examples of this include piggybacking and trojan horse attacks on a system, where malicious behavior is hidden within a useful application. Such added flexibility in augment…
New algorithms reduce rejection sampling complexity for shape-constrained distributions.
problem Generating exact samples from shape-constrained distributions efficiently.
method Sublinear query complexity algorithms for rejection sampling.
result Sublinear complexity algorithms for sampling from shape-constrained distributions.
Proposes a method combining CNFs and rejection-resampling for sampling from unnormalized densities.
problem Sampling from unnormalized probability densities, especially multimodal ones.
method Combines continuous normalizing flows with rejection-resampling steps based on importance weights.
result The method improves sampling accuracy and performance compared to state-of-the-art methods.
RED-2400 is a public benchmark of trading events from a Solana exchange, labeled by algorithmic rejection.
problem Analyzing algorithmically-rejected trading events for insights into market dynamics.
method Public dataset of 6,660 algorithmically-rejected trading events, linked to post-rejection price and liquidity trajectories.
result First window of a planned series of datasets extending the time horizon and enabling regime-stratified analysis.
Learning with rejection (LWR) allows development of machine learning systems with the ability to discard low confidence decisions generated by a prediction model. That is, just like human experts, LWR allows machine models to abstain from generating a prediction when reliability of the prediction is expected to be low.…
We propose Generative Well-intentioned Networks (GWINs), a novel framework for increasing the accuracy of certainty-based, closed-world classifiers. A conditional generative network recovers the distribution of observations that the classifier labels correctly with high certainty. We introduce a reject option to the cl…
Active learning is an important technique to reduce the number of labeled examples in supervised learning. Active learning for binary classification has been well addressed in machine learning. However, active learning of the reject option classifier remains unaddressed. In this paper, we propose novel algorithms for a…
We consider the combined use of resampling and partial rejection control in sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle filters. While the variance reducing properties of rejection control are known, there has not been (to the best of our knowledge) any work on unbiased estimation of the marginal likelihood …
Estimates price elasticity from autocorrelated time series using causal graphs.
problem Inconsistent IV estimators in autocorrelated time series data.
method Model equilibrium with unobserved confounders, derive DAG, and use graphical inference for valid IV estimators.
result Valid IV estimators improve understanding of economic dynamics.
Generation of pseudorandom numbers from different probability distributions has been studied extensively in the Monte Carlo simulation literature. Two standard generation techniques are the acceptance-rejection and inverse transformation methods. An alternative approach to Monte Carlo simulation is the quasi-Monte Carl…
The paper tackles backtest overfitting in cryptocurrency trading using deep reinforcement learning.
problem Backtest overfitting in deep reinforcement learning for cryptocurrency trading.
method Formulated hypothesis test for overfitting detection, trained agents, estimated overfitting probability, and rejected overfitted agents.
result Less overfitted deep reinforcement learning agents outperformed more overfitted agents and market benchmarks.