A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Optimizes risk assessment tools using mixed-integer programming.
This report reviews the Edinburgh tram project's risk management. Projects frequently overrun their cost and timelines and fall short on intended benefits. Cost, schedule, and benefit risk of projects need to be carefully considered to avoid this. The report describes and evaluates risk assessment and management for th…
Paper predicts TUG score from gait characteristics using machine learning.
The question of optimal portfolio is addressed. The conventional Markowitz portfolio optimisation is discussed and the shortcomings due to non-Gaussian security returns are outlined. A method is proposed to minimise the likelihood of extreme non-Gaussian drawdowns of the portfolio value. The theory is called Leptokurti…
Constructs new elicitable risk measures with multiplicative scoring functions.
Paper identifies a shared toolkit of strategies for risk management across fields.
Project estimates risk-neutral dependence from option prices.
The dynamic network of relationships among corporations underlies cascading economic failures including the current economic crisis, and can be inferred from correlations in market value fluctuations. We analyze the time dependence of the network of correlations to reveal the changing relationships among the financial,…
We consider a long-term optimal investment problem where an investor tries to minimize the probability of falling below a target growth rate. From a mathematical viewpoint, this is a large deviation control problem. This problem will be shown to relate to a risk-sensitive stochastic control problem for a sufficiently l…
This research predicts cryptocurrency price volatility using deep learning models.
Falling is a commonly occurring mishap with elderly people, which may cause serious injuries. Thus, rapid fall detection is very important in order to mitigate the severe effects of fall among the elderly people. Many fall monitoring systems based on the accelerometer have been proposed for the fall detection. However,…
This paper proposes a real-time embedded fall detection system using a DVS(Dynamic Vision Sensor) that has never been used for traditional fall detection, a dataset for fall detection using that, and a DVS-TN(DVS-Temporal Network). The first contribution is building a DVS Falls Dataset, which made our network to recogn…
Introduces an asymmetric model for measuring market risk.
Human falls rarely occur; however, detecting falls is very important from the health and safety perspective. Due to the rarity of falls, it is difficult to employ supervised classification techniques to detect them. Moreover, in these highly skewed situations it is also difficult to extract domain specific features to …
Online leading has disrupted the traditional consumer banking sector with more effective loan processing. Risk prediction and monitoring is critical for the success of the business model. Traditional credit score models fall short in applying big data technology in building risk model. In this manuscript, data with var…
This survey reviews portfolio selection problem for long-term horizon. We consider two objectives: (i) maximize the probability for outperforming a target growth rate of wealth process (ii) minimize the probability of falling below a target growth rate. We study the asymptotic behavior of these criteria formulated as l…
A fall is an abnormal activity that occurs rarely, so it is hard to collect real data for falls. It is, therefore, difficult to use supervised learning methods to automatically detect falls. Another challenge in using machine learning methods to automatically detect falls is the choice of engineered features. In this p…
In order to protect brokers from customer defaults in a volatile market, an active margin system is proposed for the transactions of margin lending in China. The probability of negative return under the condition that collaterals are liquidated in a falling market is used to measure the risk associated with margin loan…
Networked-guarantee loans may cause the systemic risk related concern of the government and banks in China. The prediction of default of enterprise loans is a typical extremely imbalanced prediction problem, and the networked-guarantee make this problem more difficult to solve. Since the guaranteed loan is a debt oblig…
Fall detection is an important problem from both the health and machine learning perspective. A fall can lead to severe injuries, long term impairments or even death in some cases. In terms of machine learning, it presents a severely class imbalance problem with very few or no training data for falls owing to the fact …
Study reveals mutual information is crucial for understanding algorithm performance in stochastic convex optimization.
mmFall detects falls using mmWave radar and a hybrid VRAE, achieving high accuracy.
In the author's previous joint work with Hans-Joachim Hein, a mass formula for asymptotically locally Euclidean (ALE) Kaehler manifolds was proved, assuming only relatively weak fall-off conditions on the metric. However, the case of real dimension 4 presented technical difficulties that led us to require fall-off cond…
Unintentional falls can cause severe injuries and even death, especially if no immediate assistance is given. The aim of Fall Detection Systems (FDSs) is to detect an occurring fall. This information can be used to trigger the necessary assistance in case of injury. This can be done by using either ambient-based sensor…
We study a novel spline-like basis, which we name the "falling factorial basis", bearing many similarities to the classic truncated power basis. The advantage of the falling factorial basis is that it enables rapid, linear-time computations in basis matrix multiplication and basis matrix inversion. The falling factoria…
The paper examines optimal insurance design using Lambda-Value-at-Risk.
A taxonomy of large financial crashes proposed in the literature locates the burst of speculative bubbles due to endogenous causes in the framework of extreme stock market crashes, defined as falls of market prices that are outlier with respect to the bulk of drawdown price movement distribution. This paper goes on dee…
This report was commissioned by the Commission of Inquiry Respecting the Muskrat Falls Project to provide the national and international context in which the Muskrat Falls Project took place. The Commission asked for the report to cover three specific topics of questions: (1) What is the national and international cont…
In this paper, we introduce an insurance ruin model with adaptive premium rate, thereafter refered to as restructuring/refraction, in which classical ruin and bankruptcy are distinguished. In this model, the premium rate is increased as soon as the wealth process falls into the red zone and is brought back to its regul…
Optimizes pension fund management under funding risks.
In this paper we discuss a credit risk model with a pure jump Lévy process for the asset value and an unobservable random barrier. The default time is the first time when the asset value falls below the barrier. Using the indistinguishability of the intensity process and the likelihood process, we prove the existence o…
Implementing large-scale information and communication technology (IT) projects carries large risks and easily might disrupt operations, waste taxpayers' money, and create negative publicity. Because of the high risks it is important that government leaders manage the attendant risks. We analysed a sample of 1,355 publ…
Power-law portfolios improve diversification by scaling weights sub-linearly.
The crowd panic and its contagion play non-negligible roles at the time of the stock crash, especially for China where inexperienced investors dominate the market. However, existing models rarely consider investors in networking stocks and accordingly miss the exact knowledge of how panic contagion leads to abrupt cras…
This paper explores crypto, blockchain, and Metaverse risks and opportunities.
Study analyzes household capital risk and poverty trapping, deriving a new function for capital deficit distribution.
Falls prevention, especially in older people, becomes an increasingly important topic in the times of aging societies. In this work, we present Gated Recurrent Unit-based neural networks models designed for predicting falls (syncope). The cardiovascular systems signals used in the study come from Gravitational Physiolo…
Large GD stepsizes improve margins and speed up training for non-homogeneous networks.
A new algorithm learns from failures to optimize under constraints efficiently.
Improves regression efficiency by separating material and immaterial parts of responses.
New method reduces sample complexity for robust learning.
We show that Entropy-SGD (Chaudhari et al., 2017), when viewed as a learning algorithm, optimizes a PAC-Bayes bound on the risk of a Gibbs (posterior) classifier, i.e., a randomized classifier obtained by a risk-sensitive perturbation of the weights of a learned classifier. Entropy-SGD works by optimizing the bound's p…
We investigate the impact of available information on the estimation of the default probability within a generalized structural model for credit risk. The traditional structural model where default is triggered when the value of the firm's asset falls below a constant threshold is extended by relaxing the assumption of…
Enhances cryptocurrency pair trading with DRL, outperforming classical methods.
Optimizes Iron Condor portfolios for better risk and profit management.
Correlation mixtures of elliptical copulas arise when the correlation parameter is driven itself by a latent random process. For such copulas, both penultimate and asymptotic tail dependence are much larger than for ordinary elliptical copulas with the same unconditional correlation. Furthermore, for Gaussian and Stude…
The study improves VaR forecast accuracy by modeling conditional quantile dynamics.
Detecting patterns in real time streaming data has been an interesting and challenging data analytics problem. With the proliferation of a variety of sensor devices, real-time analytics of data from the Internet of Things (IoT) to learn regular and irregular patterns has become an important machine learning problem to …