A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This paper tackles fitting multilevel low rank matrices by addressing three problems.
NNEinFact fits any nonnegative tensor factorization quickly and accurately.
Streaming tensor factorization is a powerful tool for processing high-volume and multi-way temporal data in Internet networks, recommender systems and image/video data analysis. Existing streaming tensor factorization algorithms rely on least-squares data fitting and they do not possess a mechanism for tensor rank dete…
T-Rex uses EM to fit robust factor models in noisy data.
New deep learning methods improve estimation and GOF assessment for large-scale IFA.
New algorithm speeds up fitting GLLVMs to large datasets.
We found that factors decay over time, with momentum fitting best.
New NMF algorithms improve topic model fits.
Hearing Aid (HA) algorithms need to be tuned ("fitted") to match the impairment of each specific patient. The lack of a fundamental HA fitting theory is a strong contributing factor to an unsatisfying sound experience for about 20% of hearing aid patients. This paper proposes a probabilistic modeling approach to the de…
The log-periodic power law (LPPL) is a model of asset prices during endogenous bubbles. If the on-going development of a bubble is suspected, asset prices can be fit numerically to the LPPL law. The best solutions can then indicate whether a bubble is in progress and, if so, the bubble critical time (i.e., when the bub…
Develops a fast algorithm for fitting multilevel factor models.
Optimistic estimate predicts best fitting performance of nonlinear models.
An innovative extension of Geometric Brownian Motion model is developed by incorporating a weighting factor and a stochastic function modelled as a mixture of power and trigonometric functions. Simulations based on this Modified Brownian Motion Model with optimal weighting factors selected by goodness of fit tests, sub…
We consider the probabilistic analogue to neural network matrix factorization (Dziugaite & Roy, 2015), which we construct with Bayesian neural networks and fit with variational inference. We find that a linear model fit with variational inference can attain equivalent predictive performance to the regular neural networ…
This work improves fair tensor decomposition using a kernel criterion.
EGMU optimizes portfolios using KL divergence, ensuring positive solutions.
We present a novel factor analysis method that can be applied to the discovery of common factors shared among trajectories in multivariate time series data. These factors satisfy a precedence-ordering property: certain factors are recruited only after some other factors are activated. Precedence-ordering arise in appli…
We consider factoring low-rank tensors in the presence of outlying slabs. This problem is important in practice, because data collected in many real-world applications, such as speech, fluorescence, and some social network data, fit this paradigm. Prior work tackles this problem by iteratively selecting a fixed number …
A new method ranks and selects features without model fitting.
This work explores non-negative low-rank matrix factorization based on regularized Poisson models (PF or "Poisson factorization" for short) for recommender systems with implicit-feedback data. The properties of Poisson likelihood allow a shortcut for very fast computations over zero-valued inputs, and oftentimes result…
Typically, operational risk losses are reported above a threshold. Fitting data reported above a constant threshold is a well known and studied problem. However, in practice, the losses are scaled for business and other factors before the fitting and thus the threshold is varying across the scaled data sample. A report…
Hawkes processes have seen a number of applications in finance, due to their ability to capture event clustering behaviour typically observed in financial systems. Given a calibrated Hawkes process, of concern is the statistical fit to empirical data, particularly for the accurate quantification of self- and mutual-exc…
The paper proposes a new algorithm for the high-dimensional financial data -- the Groupwise Interpretable Basis Selection (GIBS) algorithm, to estimate a new Adaptive Multi-Factor (AMF) asset pricing model, implied by the recently developed Generalized Arbitrage Pricing Theory, which relaxes the convention that the num…
A theoretical framework for non-negative matrix factorization based on generalized dual Kullback-Leibler divergence, which includes members of the exponential family of models, is proposed. A family of algorithms is developed using this framework and its convergence proven using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm. …
We study the stability vis a vis adversarial noise of matrix factorization algorithm for matrix completion. In particular, our results include: (I) we bound the gap between the solution matrix of the factorization method and the ground truth in terms of root mean square error; (II) we treat the matrix factorization as …
Variational Bayesian neural networks combine the flexibility of deep learning with Bayesian uncertainty estimation. However, inference procedures for flexible variational posteriors are computationally expensive. A recently proposed method, noisy natural gradient, is a surprisingly simple method to fit expressive poste…
The Black-Scholes theory of option pricing has been considered for many years as an important but very approximate zeroth-order description of actual market behavior. We generalize the functional form of the diffusion of these systems and also consider multi-factor models including stochastic volatility. Daily Eurodoll…
This paper proposes a novel profile likelihood method for estimating the covariance parameters in exploratory factor analysis of high-dimensional Gaussian datasets with fewer observations than number of variables. An implicitly restarted Lanczos algorithm and a limited-memory quasi-Newton method are implemented to deve…
Study compares two factor models for electricity spot prices across different periods.
We present a class of flexible and tractable static factor models for the term structure of joint default probabilities, the factor copula models. These high-dimensional models remain parsimonious with pair-copula constructions, and nest many standard models as special cases. The loss distribution of a portfolio of con…
Many fits of Hawkes processes to financial data look rather good but most of them are not statistically significant. This raises the question of what part of market dynamics this model is able to account for exactly. We document the accuracy of such processes as one varies the time interval of calibration and compare t…
We introduce a novel class of credit risk models in which the drift of the survival process of a firm is a linear function of the factors. The prices of defaultable bonds and credit default swaps (CDS) are linear-rational in the factors. The price of a CDS option can be uniformly approximated by polynomials in the fact…
In this work we approach the task of learning multilingual word representations in an offline manner by fitting a generative latent variable model to a multilingual dictionary. We model equivalent words in different languages as different views of the same word generated by a common latent variable representing their l…
Exploiting low-rank structure of the user-item rating matrix has been the crux of many recommendation engines. However, existing recommendation engines force raters with heterogeneous behavior profiles to map their intrinsic rating scales to a common rating scale (e.g. 1-5). This non-linear transformation of the rating…
Proposes a method to learn policies from offline data with reduced bias.
A framework uses variational Bayes for solving inverse problems efficiently.
In this paper, we present an infinite hierarchical non-parametric Bayesian model to extract the hidden factors over observed data, where the number of hidden factors for each layer is unknown and can be potentially infinite. Moreover, the number of layers can also be infinite. We construct the model structure that allo…
Report presents analysis of empirical distribution of future returns of bitcoin (BTC) from BTUSD inverse option prices. Logistic pdf is chosen as underlying distribution to fit option prices. The result is satisfactory and suggests that these prices can be described with just three or even one parameter. Fitted Logisti…
The paper solves the problem of fitting an ellipsoid to random points efficiently.
Marginal maximum likelihood (MML) estimation is the preferred approach to fitting item response theory models in psychometrics due to the MML estimator's consistency, normality, and efficiency as the sample size tends to infinity. However, state-of-the-art MML estimation procedures such as the Metropolis-Hastings Robbi…
Method learns shared and specific factors in multi-study gene expression data.
Estimates future ICU demand using age-structured data and logistic modeling.
Proposes CSG model to separate semantic and variation factors for OOD prediction.
New method models portfolios with leptokurtic risk factors using Gram-Charlier expansions.
Nearly all Gaussian points in high dimensions lie on a common ellipsoid.
Identifying recurring patterns in high-dimensional time series data is an important problem in many scientific domains. A popular model to achieve this is convolutive nonnegative matrix factorization (CNMF), which extends classic nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) to extract short-lived temporal motifs from a long …
A new matrix factorization method for high-dimensional data.
A Hawkes process with state-dependent factor models order flows in limit order books.