A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study examines dependence of extreme electricity prices in Australian markets.
This study presents a long-term alternative formula for stock price variation described by a geometric Brownian motion on the basis of median instead of mean or expected values. The proposed method is motivated by the observation made in remote fields, where optimality of bet-hedging or diversification strategies is ex…
New framework estimates treatment effects in extreme data.
Modeling house prices in Australia reveals supply limitations as the primary driver of extreme trends.
The large majority of risk-sharing transactions involve few agents, each of whom can heavily influence the structure and the prices of securities. This paper proposes a game where agents' strategic sets consist of all possible sharing securities and pricing kernels that are consistent with Arrow-Debreu sharing rules. F…
New method estimates extreme outcomes in heavy-tailed data, breaking circular dependence.
The price of electricity is far more volatile than that of other commodities normally noted for extreme volatility. The possibility of extreme price movements increases the risk of trading in electricity markets. However, underlying the process of price returns is a strong mean-reverting mechanism. We study this featur…
In an Ultrafast Extreme Event (or Mini Flash Crash), the price of a traded stock increases or decreases strongly within milliseconds. We present a detailed study of Ultrafast Extreme Events in stock market data. In contrast to popular belief, our analysis suggests that most of the Ultrafast Extreme Events are not prima…
Study shows Bitcoin security tied to mining rewards and prices.
The paper calculates extreme measures in continuous time conic finance.
Many studies assume stock prices follow a random process known as geometric Brownian motion. Although approximately correct, this model fails to explain the frequent occurrence of extreme price movements, such as stock market crashes. Using a large collection of data from three different stock markets, we present evide…
We derive an extremal fractional Gaussian by employing the Lévy-Khintchine theorem and Lévian noise. With the fractional Gaussian we then generalize the Black-Scholes-Merton option-pricing formula. We obtain an easily applicable and exponentially convergent option-pricing formula for fractional markets. We also carry o…
Improves forecast calibration for extreme events using modified loss functions.
Proposes a new framework to manage venture capital portfolio risk by focusing on deal-level correlations.
New model bridges pricing and reserving for insurance claims.
PreBit predicts Bitcoin price movements using social media and financial data.
Study shows climate change can cause a 'run on fossil fuels' affecting prices and production.
The study identifies and predicts extreme stock price fluctuations using HHT and SVM.
This paper highlights the role of risk neutral investors in generating endogenous bubbles in derivatives markets. We find that a market for derivatives, which has all the features of a perfect market except completeness and has some risk neutral investors, can exhibit extreme price movements which represent a violation…
Quantile regression is an increasingly important empirical tool in economics and other sciences for analyzing the impact of a set of regressors on the conditional distribution of an outcome. Extremal quantile regression, or quantile regression applied to the tails, is of interest in many economic and financial applicat…
A new method for optimizing stakes in a single event with multiple outcomes.
We suggest a simple reduction of pricing European options in affine jump-diffusion models to pricing options with modified payoffs in diffusion models. The procedure is based on the conjugation of the infinitesimal generator of the model with an operator of the form $e^{iΦ(-i\dd_x)}$ (gauge transformation in the dual s…
A new algorithm avoids worst-case outcomes in risky contexts.
This paper explores the possibility that asset prices, especially those traded in large volume on public exchanges, might comply with specific physical laws of motion and probability. The paper first examines the basic dynamics of asset price displacement and finds one can model this dynamic as a harmonic oscillator at…
This papers addresses the stock option pricing problem in a continuous time market model where there are two stochastic tradable assets, and one of them is selected as a numéraire. It is shown that the presence of arbitrarily small stochastic deviations in the evolution of the numéraire process causes significant chang…
In this paper we study recent developments in the approximation of the spread option pricing. As the Kirkś Approximation is extremely flawed in the cases when the correlation is very high, we explore a recent development that allows approximating with simplicity and accuracy the option price. To assess the goodness of …
Characterizes super-replication prices in a financial market model.
This paper analyzes extreme flooding risks and proposes insurance and bond solutions.
An increase in energy production from renewable energy sources is viewed as a crucial achievement in most industrialized countries. The higher variability of power production via renewables leads to a rise in ancillary service costs over the power system, in particular costs within the electricity balancing markets, ma…
New method for personalized pricing using invalid instrumental variables.
Closed-form pricing method for multi-asset options.
The paper explores how mining costs, rewards, and blockchain security are interconnected.
This paper treats prediction markets as Bayesian inverse problems to quantify uncertainty and identify event outcomes.
Study tail risk in high-frequency finance using -regularized regression.
Study on price fluctuations and persistence in European electricity spot markets.
A framework for analyzing financial systems under scenario constraints.
Quantum walks model financial returns with flexibility and asymmetry.
The Availability bias, manifested in the over-representation of extreme eventualities in decision-making, is a well-known cognitive bias, and is generally taken as evidence of human irrationality. In this work, we present the first rational, metacognitive account of the Availability bias, formally articulated at Marr's…
Agents learn to outperform in trading by using past and current prices.
Research predicts XRP price anomalies using graph topologies.
In this paper, we study the possibility of inferring early warning indicators (EWIs) for periods of extreme bitcoin price volatility using features obtained from Bitcoin daily transaction graphs. We infer the low-dimensional representations of transaction graphs in the time period from 2012 to 2017 using Bitcoin blockc…
Two new estimators reduce costs and improve accuracy for EHR outcome prediction.
New framework estimates demand responses across multiple contexts with limited price variation.
Investors in stock market are usually greedy during bull markets and scared during bear markets. The greed or fear spreads across investors quickly. This is known as the herding effect, and often leads to a fast movement of stock prices. During such market regimes, stock prices change at a super-exponential rate and ar…
Standard economic theory assumes that agents in markets behave rationally. However, the observation of extremely large fluctuations in the price of financial assets that are not correlated to changes in their fundamental value, as well as the extreme instance of financial bubbles and crashes, imply that markets (at lea…
This paper investigates how two important sources of risk -- market tail risk and extreme market volatility risk -- are priced into the cross-section of asset returns across various investment horizons. To identify such risks, we propose a quantile spectral beta representation of risk based on the decomposition of cova…
Hydropower reduces system electricity price and volatility, especially at extreme levels.
A simple spin system is constructed to simulate dynamics of asset prices and studied numerically. The outcome for the distribution of prices is shown to depend both on the dimension of the system and the introduction of price into the link measure. For dimensions below 2, the associated risk is high and the price distr…