In this article, we improve extreme learning machines for regression tasks using a graph signal processing based regularization. We assume that the target signal for prediction or regression is a graph signal. With this assumption, we use the regularization to enforce that the output of an extreme learning machine is s…
Extremely accurate prediction of dynamical system bifurcations using control inputs.
problem Predicting complex bifurcation structures in dynamical systems.
method Extending extreme learning machines with control inputs to model system dynamics.
result The model can nearly reproduce the entire structure of bifurcations using only a few parameter values.
The paper analyzes extreme temperature forecasting using machine learning models.
problem Forecasting extreme temperatures in U.S. cities.
method Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Multilayer Perceptrons, Gaussian Processes.
result Multilayer Perceptrons were found to be the most effective approach for forecasting extreme temperatures.
New framework assesses extreme errors in machine learning models.
problem Current validation methods fail to quantify extreme errors in high-stakes domains.
method Uses Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate worst-case failures.
result Establishes EVT as a fundamental tool for assessing model reliability.
Paper proves global convergence of NCELM model.
problem Ensuring global convergence of NCELM model.
method Two-stage process: random base learners and NCL penalty term updates.
result Global convergence of NCELM proved using Banach theorem.
ELM speeds up financial machine learning tasks.
problem Efficiently solving time-sensitive financial tasks with machine learning.
method Single-layer neural networks with random initialization and convex optimization.
result ELM achieves significant computational efficiency in financial applications.
Extreme learning machine (ELM) is a new single hidden layer feedback neural network. The weights of the input layer and the biases of neurons in hidden layer are randomly generated, the weights of the output layer can be analytically determined. ELM has been achieved good results for a large number of classification ta…
Extreme value theory enhances statistical learning extrapolation for rare events.
problem Challenges in traditional machine learning methods for extreme data.
method Asymptotic theory and statistical tools for tail behavior.
result Effective extrapolation methods for extreme quantiles and anomalies.
Prediction intervals in supervised Machine Learning bound the region where the true outputs of new samples may fall. They are necessary in the task of separating reliable predictions of a trained model from near random guesses, minimizing the rate of False Positives, and other problem-specific tasks in applied Machine …
Novel SVM approach for extreme quantile regression with heavy tailed inputs.
problem Learning from extreme values in quantile regression.
method Support Vector Machine framework for handling high-dimensional and nonlinear settings.
result Established finite-sample learning guarantees under mild regularity assumptions.
Study on consistency of ML methods for moving objects in non-stationary environments.
problem Consistency of machine learning methods for moving objects in non-stationary environments.
method Least squares, ridge regression, and ℓs-penalized least squares methods under non-stationary spatial-temporal sampling. result Consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimates under weak conditions.
This paper improves uncertainty quantification in ELM models.
problem Uncertainty in ELM predictions due to data assumptions and randomness.
method Analytical derivations and variance estimates under various conditions.
result Improved understanding and estimation of ELM variability.
Two new inverse-free ELM algorithms for incremental and decremental learning are proposed.
problem Efficiently updating and removing multiple hidden nodes in ELM.
method Improved inverse-free recursive algorithms for Tikhonov regularization.
result Inverse-free algorithms for ELM with multiple hidden nodes and redundant nodes.
ELM combines machine learning and feature engineering for anomalous diffusion detection.
problem Quantitative characterization of anomalous diffusion from single trajectories.
method Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) combined with feature engineering.
result ELM achieves satisfactory performance in AnDi challenge tasks.
The study uses machine learning to predict CAT bond coupons based on climate data.
problem Predicting CAT bond coupons using climate data.
method Combining climate indicators with machine learning models (random forest, gradient boosting, etc.).
result Extremely randomized trees achieved the lowest RMSE in predicting CAT bond coupons.
Machine learning predicts US stock market crashes.
problem Early detection of stock market crises.
method Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting models.
result Extreme Gradient Boosting outperforms other models.
Statistical downscaling of global climate models (GCMs) allows researchers to study local climate change effects decades into the future. A wide range of statistical models have been applied to downscaling GCMs but recent advances in machine learning have not been explored. In this paper, we compare four fundamental st…
We present a novel distribution-free approach, the data-driven threshold machine (DTM), for a fundamental problem at the core of many learning tasks: choose a threshold for a given pre-specified level that bounds the tail probability of the maximum of a (possibly dependent but stationary) random sequence. We do not ass…
Quantum algorithm finds extremal values without direct function access.
problem Finding extremal values of hidden functions without direct access.
method Parametric quantum circuit trained with a trainable quantum feature map.
result Algorithm successfully finds extremal values even with sparse training data.
Biarchetype analysis identifies extreme instances of observations and features.
problem Representing complex data structures in a more interpretable form.
method Solves biarchetype analysis through an algorithm that identifies biarchetypes as mixtures of observations and features.
result Biarchetypes enhance interpretability of data structures compared to traditional methods.
The paper identifies five extreme learning regimes for large linear autoencoders.
problem Understanding the learning dynamics of large weight-tied linear autoencoders.
method Formal loss-expansion hierarchy and analysis of gradient flow.
result Five extreme regimes associated with faces of a triangular prism.
Enhanced ELM reduces randomness in neural network training.
problem Challenges in ELM architecture design and sensitivity to random weight initialization.
method Introduces Effective Non-Random ELM (ENR-ELM) incorporating signal processing concepts.
result ENR-ELM simplifies architecture design and eliminates random weight selection.
In this paper, we propose an AdaBoost-assisted extreme learning machine for efficient online sequential classification (AOS-ELM). In order to achieve better accuracy in online sequential learning scenarios, we utilize the cost-sensitive algorithm-AdaBoost, which diversifying the weak classifiers, and adding the forgett…
AI boosts study of rare weather extremes with lower costs.
problem Difficulty in studying rare weather events due to limited data and models.
method Coupling AI forecasts with physics models using rare-event algorithms.
result Efficiently characterizes very rare events like once-per-millennium heatwaves.
The prediction of epileptic seizure has always been extremely challenging in medical domain. However, as the development of computer technology, the application of machine learning introduced new ideas for seizure forecasting. Applying machine learning model onto the predication of epileptic seizure could help us obtai…
This paper uses VAE to generate extreme events from multivariate data.
problem Generating accurate extremes from observational data for risk assessment.
method Variational Autoencoder (VAE) approach for multivariate heavy-tailed distributions.
result Improves learning of dependency structure between extremes.
Paper introduces a new method to compute pseudoinverse for ELM with large datasets.
problem Efficient computation of pseudoinverse for ELM with large datasets.
method Rank-based matrix decomposition of the hidden layer matrix.
result Optimal training time and reduced computational complexity for large hidden nodes.
Mammography is often used as the most common laboratory method for the detection of breast cancer, yet associated with the high cost and many side effects. Machine learning prediction as an alternative method has shown promising results. This paper presents a method based on a multilayer fuzzy expert system for the det…
The study examines how hyperparameters affect prediction discrepancies in machine learning models.
problem Prediction inconsistencies across different machine learning models trained on the same dataset.
method Investigation of six models (Elastic Net, Decision Tree, k-NN, SVM, RF, XGBoost) on 21 benchmark datasets, focusing on key hyperparameters.
result Hyperparameter tuning improves model performance but increases prediction discrepancies, especially in Extreme Gradient Boosting.
Paper uses ML to predict SME defaults with interpretability.
problem Lack of interpretability in ML models for SME default prediction.
method Model-agnostic approach using Accumulated Local Effects and Shapley values.
result eXtreme Gradient Boosting algorithm provides highest classification power with interpretability.
A central area of research in nonlinear science is the study of instabilities that drive the emergence of extreme events. Unfortunately, experimental techniques for measuring such phenomena often provide only partial characterization. For example, real-time studies of instabilities in nonlinear fibre optics frequently …
The study examines machine learning classification algorithms and their generalizability using Framingham Heart Study data.
problem Addressing biases and generalizability issues in machine learning classification algorithms.
method Comparison of eight machine learning classification algorithms on Framingham Heart Study data.
result Double discriminant scoring of type I is the most generalizable algorithm.
Recent years, transfer learning has attracted much attention in the community of machine learning. In this paper, we mainly focus on the tasks of parameter transfer under the framework of extreme learning machine (ELM). Unlike the existing parameter transfer approaches, which incorporate the source model information in…
Extreme learning machine (ELM) as a neural network algorithm has shown its good performance, such as fast speed, simple structure etc, but also, weak robustness is an unavoidable defect in original ELM for blended data. We present a new machine learning framework called LARSEN-ELM for overcoming this problem. In our pa…
Combines GANs and EVT for better modeling of spatial climate extremes.
problem Modeling dependencies between climate extremes, especially in high-dimensional spaces.
method Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) combined with Extreme Value Theory (EVT).
result evtGAN outperforms classical GANs and statistical approaches in modeling spatial extremes.
Study compares machine learning algorithms for predicting SST in the Great Barrier Reef.
problem Predicting sea surface temperature in the Great Barrier Reef region.
method Ridge regression, LASSO, Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithms were evaluated.
result XGBoost significantly outperforms other algorithms in terms of predictive accuracy and Kullback-Leibler Divergence.
Many Machine Learning algorithms, such as deep neural networks, have long been criticized for being "black-boxes"-a kind of models unable to provide how it arrive at a decision without further efforts to interpret. This problem has raised concerns on model applications' trust, safety, nondiscrimination, and other ethic…
We present an alternative to the pseudo-inverse method for determining the hidden to output weight values for Extreme Learning Machines performing classification tasks. The method is based on linear discriminant analysis and provides Bayes optimal single point estimates for the weight values.
This work develops machine learning for micromagnetic energy minimization.
problem Minimizing Gibbs free energy in full 3D micromagnetic simulations.
method Advanced machine learning techniques, including Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) and Extreme Learning Machines (ELMs), with reformulated bounds and optimization schemes.
result Competitive performance of machine learning methods compared to traditional numerical approaches.
Quantum ELMs use a quantum reservoir to learn from data, with limits on expressivity and scalability.
problem Understanding the limits of quantum ELMs for machine learning tasks.
method Decomposed QELM predictions into Fourier series to analyze expressivity and scalability.
result Expressivity of QELMs is limited by the number of Fourier frequencies and observables, and scalability is hindered by hardware noise and entanglement.
Then detection and identification of extreme weather events in large-scale climate simulations is an important problem for risk management, informing governmental policy decisions and advancing our basic understanding of the climate system. Recent work has shown that fully supervised convolutional neural networks (CNNs…
This paper uses ML and EVT to analyze tree ring data, improving accuracy of predictions.
problem Analyzing tree ring data for climate modeling and historical studies.
method Combines machine learning algorithms with extreme value theory for data analysis.
result Random Forest method yields the most accurate results for tree ring data analysis.
Time series forecasting is one of the most active research topics. Machine learning methods have been increasingly adopted to solve these predictive tasks. However, in a recent work, these were shown to systematically present a lower predictive performance relative to simple statistical methods. In this work, we counte…
New method estimates extreme outcomes in heavy-tailed data, breaking circular dependence.
problem Estimating outcomes for extreme events in heavy-tailed data.
method Proposes an ADRF estimator that includes a structured tail-shape output and a diagnostic to evaluate tail shape.
result Successfully reduces MAE in deep-tail and conditional-shortfall predictions.
Bayesian model connects KMs and ELMs for multitask regression.
problem Multitask regression with shared features and sparsity.
method Bayesian framework using RFFs and RBF kernels.
result Significant performance improvements over state-of-the-art methods.
Improves forecast calibration for extreme events using modified loss functions.
problem Improperly specified models do not issue calibrated forecasts for extreme events.
method Adapting loss functions based on weighted scoring rules and tail miscalibration regularization.
result Calibrated forecasts for extreme wind speeds can be improved by suitable adaptations to the loss function during model training.
New method provides reliable high-confidence prediction intervals for high-impact events.
problem High-impact events require very high confidence prediction intervals, but classical methods provide uninformative intervals.
method Bridge extreme value statistics and conformal prediction to provide reliable and informative prediction intervals.
result Provides reliable and informative prediction intervals with high-confidence coverage.
An extreme wind speed estimation method that considers wind hazard climate types is critical for design wind load calculation for building structures affected by mixed climates. However, it is very difficult to obtain wind hazard climate types from meteorological data records, because they restrict the application of e…