Extremal dependence between international stock markets is of particular interest in today's global financial landscape. However, previous studies have shown this dependence is not necessarily stationary over time. We concern ourselves with modeling extreme value dependence when that dependence is changing over time, o…
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48 results for “extremal dependence models”
Combines GANs and EVT for better modeling of spatial climate extremes.
problem Modeling dependencies between climate extremes, especially in high-dimensional spaces.
method Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) combined with Extreme Value Theory (EVT).
result evtGAN outperforms classical GANs and statistical approaches in modeling spatial extremes.
Deep learning models complex multivariate extremes using geometric shapes.
problem Modeling complex extremal dependencies in high-dimensional data.
method Geometric representation and deep learning for flexible semi-parametric models.
result First approach to modeling limit sets using deep learning for high-dimensional data.
Extends geometric approach to model non-stationary extremal dependence.
problem Capturing evolving extremal dependence in multivariate data.
method Geometric framework for non-stationary multivariate extreme value modelling.
result Framework can capture various dependence forms and is robust to different model formulations.
COMET Flows model multivariate extremes with heavy tails and asymmetric dependence.
problem Normalizing flows struggle with multivariate extremes and asymmetric tail dependence.
method COMET Flows decomposes modeling into marginal and copula parts; uses tail belief and kernel density for marginals, and low-dimensional manifold for tail dependence.
result COMET Flows outperform other models in capturing heavy-tailed marginals and asymmetric tail dependence.
Flexible XVAE model for efficient spatial extremes simulation.
problem Complex tail dependence structures in spatial extremes processes.
method Variational autoencoder (XVAE) for modeling flexible and non-stationary dependence.
result XVAE provides fast inference and outperforms traditional models in high dimensions.
Model predicts unseen climate extremes to inform risk planning.
problem Missing unseen climate extremes in historical records.
method DeepX-GAN model capturing spatial dependence.
result Unseen heat extremes disproportionately threaten vulnerable regions.
Develops a new model for measuring extremal dependence in financial markets.
problem Lack of suitable models for studying extremal dependence in financial markets.
method Constructs regular variation models on and develops a bivariate measure for asymmetry in extremal dependence.
result Rejects the Efficient Tail Hypothesis for China's futures market and identifies profitable investment opportunities.
Develops deep models to handle nonstationary spatial extremal dependence.
problem Challenges in modeling nonstationary extremal dependence in spatial data.
method Deep compositional spatial models to capture nonstationarity in extremal dependence.
result Efficient estimation of warped space for nonstationary spatial data.
New method models precipitation extremes and spatial dependence.
problem Estimating dependencies of precipitation maxima in space and time.
method Generative neural networks for max-stable processes.
result Explicit nonparametric estimate of spatial dependence.
This paper uses MIS to identify key financial institutions with minimal risk contagion.
problem Mitigating systemic risk during extreme financial events.
method Applying extreme value theory and MIS from graph theory to identify diversified portfolios.
result Identified a subset of institutions with minimal extremal dependence for diversified portfolios.
Neural Bayes methods simplify fitting complex bivariate extremal models.
problem Inference on complex multivariate extremal dependence models with computationally expensive likelihood functions.
method Use neural networks to approximate Bayes estimators and classifiers for model selection.
result Proposed neural Bayes methods enable routine implementation of complex extreme-value dependence models.
New method identifies key channels for extreme brain events.
problem Identifying channels responsible for extreme brain events like seizures.
method Extends canonical correlation to tail dependence, developing TPDM for clustering.
result Tail connectivity provides additional discriminatory power for seizure risk.
The paper calculates VaR and CTE for extreme and aggregate risks using FGM copula.
problem Estimating risk measures for extreme and aggregate risks of dependent and independent markets.
method Used FGM copula to model dependence, exponential and pareto distributions for marginal risks.
result Effect of dependency on VaR and CTE of extreme and aggregate risks analyzed.
Spectral clustering identifies clusters of multivariate extremes.
problem Analyzing the dependence structure of multivariate extremes.
method Spectral clustering based on a random -nearest neighbor graph.
result Spectral clustering can consistently identify clusters of multivariate extremes under certain conditions.
Study examines dependence of extreme electricity prices in Australian markets.
problem Understanding and managing risks of extreme price outcomes in Australian electricity markets.
method Examined extremal dependence using extremograms for 5-minute and 30-minute price data.
result Persistence and dependence of extreme prices are influenced by market structure and renewable energy share.
Paper models spatio-temporal extremes using conditional variational autoencoders.
problem Modeling co-occurrence of extreme weather events under changing climate conditions.
method Conditional Variational Autoencoder (cXVAE) with CNN integration.
result Accurately emulates spatial fields and recovers extremal dependence with low computational cost.
Efficient neural Bayes estimators for censored peaks-over-threshold models improve inference speed and accuracy.
problem Computational burden in inference with spatial extremal dependence models due to intractable or censored likelihoods.
method Developed neural Bayes estimators using data augmentation techniques to encode censoring information.
result Significant gains in computational and statistical efficiency compared to traditional methods.
We consider strictly stationary heavy tailed time series whose finite-dimensional exponent measures are concentrated on axes, and hence their extremal properties cannot be tackled using classical multivariate regular variation that is suitable for time series with extremal dependence. We recover relevant information ab…
Method tracks change-points in crypto-assets extremes.
problem Tracking change-points in multivariate extremes.
method Statistical method for modeling change-points on crypto-assets extremes.
result Developed a method to track crypto-assets extremes.
New method simulates multivariate extreme events using GANs and Aitchison coordinates.
problem Simulating multivariate extreme events for economic risk assessment.
method Wasserstein-Aitchison GAN approach combining tail dependence and marginal tail modeling.
result Strong performance in capturing tail dependence and generating accurate extreme observations.
The study identifies extremal dependence in financial markets using a bootstrap-based testing procedure.
problem Accurately identifying extremal dependence in multivariate heavy-tailed financial data.
method Bootstrap-based testing procedure applied to U.S. and Chinese stock returns.
result The U.S. exhibits more isolated clustering of dependent assets compared to China.
Neural Networks for Extreme Quantile Regression with an Application to Forecasting of Flood Riskstat.ME
Neural network model forecasts extreme flood risk.
problem Accurately estimating high quantiles of extreme events.
method EQRN model combining neural networks and extreme value theory.
result Forecasting flood risk with improved adaptability.
The book chapter discusses tail risk analysis for financial data using extreme value statistics.
problem Serial dependence in financial time series complicates tail risk assessment.
method The approach involves unconditional and conditional quantile forecasting.
result Serial dependence impacts multivariate tail dependence.
The study measures systemic risk using common and tail dependence factors.
problem Measuring systemic risk accurately during economic downturns.
method Modeling systemic risk with a common factor for market-wide shocks and a tail dependence factor for extreme events.
result Measures including a tail dependence factor offer better forecasting of financial stress than measures based solely on a common factor.
GPDFlow models extreme threshold exceedance with flexible dependence using normalizing flows.
problem Challenges in modeling multivariate threshold exceedance probabilities due to infinite parametrizations.
method GPDFlow uses normalizing flows to flexibly represent dependence without explicit parametric assumptions.
result GPDFlow significantly improves modeling accuracy and flexibility compared to traditional parametric methods.
Kernel PCA helps analyze multivariate extremes and clusters them effectively.
problem Analyzing the dependence structure of multivariate extremes.
method Kernel PCA as a method for clustering and dimension reduction.
result Kernel PCA preimages effectively identify clusters in multivariate extremes.
Proposes a network-based strategy to manage financial market risks.
problem Managing extreme events in volatile financial markets.
method Extreme value theory, network model, maximum independent set, value at risk, expected shortfall.
result Developed portfolio strategies improve risk diversification.
Capturing the dependence structure of multivariate extreme events is a major concern in many fields involving the management of risks stemming from multiple sources, e.g. portfolio monitoring, insurance, environmental risk management and anomaly detection. One convenient (non-parametric) characterization of extremal de…
Paper develops a novel approach to identify clusters of features in multivariate extremes.
problem Understanding the complex structure of multivariate extremes in various fields.
method Optimization-based approach to assess the dependence structure of extremes.
result Estimating clusters of features that best capture the support of extremes.
We present a novel distribution-free approach, the data-driven threshold machine (DTM), for a fundamental problem at the core of many learning tasks: choose a threshold for a given pre-specified level that bounds the tail probability of the maximum of a (possibly dependent but stationary) random sequence. We do not ass…
New neural network models extreme value distributions with preserved shape constraints.
problem Modeling multivariate extreme value distributions with preserved shape constraints.
method d-max-decreasing neural network architecture for non-parametric calibration and generation of MEVs.
result The proposed architecture approximates the dependence structure of MEVs at parametric rate and preserves essential shape constraints.
Multi-site modelling and reconstruction of past extreme skew surges along the French Atlantic coaststat.AP
Study models extreme skew surges along French Atlantic coast.
problem Appropriate modelling of extreme skew surges for coastal risk management.
method Peak-over-threshold framework, multivariate generalized Pareto distribution, extreme regression framework.
result Reconstructed historical skew surge time series at stations with limited data.
Russia-Ukraine conflict impacts global agricultural futures and spot markets' extreme risks.
problem Impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on global agricultural futures and spot markets' extreme risks.
method Analytical framework for tail dependence, Copula-CoVaR method, ARMA-GARCH-skewed Student-t model.
result The outbreak of the conflict intensified risks in the wheat market the most and showed significant asymmetries in extreme risk spillovers.
New method identifies extreme risk propagation in financial networks.
problem Understanding extreme risk in financial networks.
method Max-linear structural equation model, hard-thresholding, Hamming distance.
result Sparse DAG for extreme risk propagation estimated.
Researchers solved a problem about extreme mass distributions in quasi-copulas.
problem Solving the extreme mass distribution problem for quasi-copulas.
method Analytical approach using linear programming.
result Complete solution to the original problem, disproving a conjecture.
This study examines local co-movements in energy, agriculture, and metal markets using copulas.
problem Identifying local dependencies and asymmetries in energy, agriculture, and metal markets.
method Non-parametric mixture copula and copula-based local Kendall's tau approach.
result Increased co-movements in extreme situations, asymmetric local dependence, and diversification potential.
Prediction intervals in supervised Machine Learning bound the region where the true outputs of new samples may fall. They are necessary in the task of separating reliable predictions of a trained model from near random guesses, minimizing the rate of False Positives, and other problem-specific tasks in applied Machine …
Paper examines risk measure expansions under FGM dependence, improving accuracy at extreme levels.
problem Capturing higher-order tail behavior and dependence effects in risk measures.
method Second-order asymptotic expansions using extreme value theory and regular variation theory.
result Second-order approximations reduce approximation errors, especially at extreme confidence levels.
Characterizes symmetric Bernoulli distributions with minimal convex sums.
problem Understanding minimal dependence among Bernoulli random vectors.
method Geometric and algebraic representations of multivariate symmetric Bernoulli distributions.
result Characterizes extremal negative dependence and builds minimal dependence copulas.
Study on consistency of ML methods for moving objects in non-stationary environments.
problem Consistency of machine learning methods for moving objects in non-stationary environments.
method Least squares, ridge regression, and -penalized least squares methods under non-stationary spatial-temporal sampling.
result Consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimates under weak conditions.
Study confirms conjecture on extremal length of hyperbolic metrics.
problem Determining the extremal length of hyperbolic metrics on Riemann surfaces.
method Analyzes the topology of closed hyperbolic Riemann surfaces to find extremal lengths.
result Extremal length is topology-dependent and has a specific upper bound.
Inference over tails is usually performed by fitting an appropriate limiting distribution over observations that exceed a fixed threshold. However, the choice of such threshold is critical and can affect the inferential results. Extreme value mixture models have been defined to estimate the threshold using the full dat…
The study examines tail dependence between global economic uncertainty and BRICS currencies using high-frequency data.
problem Understanding the tail dependence between exchange rates and economic uncertainty.
method Daily Twitter Uncertainty Index and BRICS exchange rates analyzed using time-varying copula framework.
result Indian, Russian, and South African currencies exhibit elliptical copulas, while Brazilian and Chinese currencies show upward trending tail dependence.
Pairwise counter-monotonicityq-fin.RM
Study on pairwise counter-monotonicity, a type of negative dependence.
problem Understanding and quantifying extremal negative dependence structures.
method Established stochastic representation and invariance property; showed implications and connections.
result Pairwise counter-monotonicity implies negative association and joint mix dependence.
Improved forecasting of financial risk using Diffusion-Copula framework.
problem Capturing complex, asymmetric dependence structures in financial markets.
method Explicitly decouples marginal distribution learning from dependence structure using Mixture Density Networks and Classification-Diffusion Copula.
result Superior performance in forecasting systemic extremes of marginal and joint events.
Crashing Together, Rallying Apart: Dynamic Conditional Tail Dependence in Cryptocurrency Marketsq-fin.ST
Cryptocurrency markets exhibit violent, synchronised drawdowns, challenging diversification claims.
problem Cryptocurrency markets' violent drawdowns challenge diversification claims.
method Dynamic conditional tail dependence analysis
result Near-complete and stable lower-tail graph, upper tail that thins over time, dissolution of token categories into a core.
Hedging Extreme Co-Movementscond-mat.stat-mech
Based on a recent theorem due to the authors, it is shown how the extreme tail dependence between an asset and a factor or index or between two assets can be easily calibrated. Portfolios constructed with stocks with minimal tail dependence with the market exhibit a remarkable degree of decorrelation with the market at…