Proposes a method to use external machine-learning predictions in multinomial logistic regression.
problem Improving statistical inference using summary-level external machine-learning predictions.
method Empirical-likelihood framework incorporating moment constraints from external nonparametric machine-learning predictions.
result Fused estimator achieves strict efficiency gain over primary-only estimator under mild conditions.
Survey of methods to incorporate external knowledge into stock price prediction.
problem Challenges in predicting stock prices due to market volatility and non-linearity.
method Survey of methods for acquiring and incorporating external knowledge into stock price prediction models.
result Systematic synthesis of previous studies on external knowledge types and their application in stock price prediction.
Study improves vehicle motion prediction by incorporating traffic density.
problem Lack of contextual knowledge in predicting driving behavior.
method Categorize and define external conditions, evaluate motion prediction approach.
result Traffic density significantly improves motion prediction accuracy.
New algorithms improve privacy-preserving data release using external predictions.
problem Privacy-preserving data release with improved utility using external information.
method Learning-augmented algorithms for multiple quantile release.
result Error guarantees scale with prediction quality, almost recovering state-of-the-art guarantees.
Predicting bankruptcy using financial data and news sentiment.
problem Predicting company bankruptcy to mitigate its impact.
method Combining financial data with news sentiment analysis.
result A framework for predicting company bankruptcy.
New image restoration method using localized patches and external databases.
problem Image restoration challenges.
method Localized structured prediction and non-linear multi-task learning for optimizing a penalized energy function.
result Strong statistical guarantees and practical effectiveness demonstrated on various image restoration problems.
Paper proposes AI for stock market forecasting using external knowledge.
problem Forecasting stock prices influenced by external factors.
method Learning from historical data and external temporal knowledge graphs modeled as Hawkes processes.
result Dynamic representations effectively rank stocks based on returns.
HERMES model predicts nonstationary fashion trends using social media data.
problem Forecasting nonstationary fashion time series for optimal inventory decisions.
method Hybrid model combining parametric models, seasonal components, and recurrent neural networks with external signals.
result State-of-the-art results on fashion dataset and M4 competition time series.
Proposes a dynamic model for urban traffic volume prediction.
problem Urban traffic volume prediction for better traffic management and driver planning.
method Combines bidirectional LSTM, attention mechanism, and external features.
result Improves prediction precision by 3-7 percent on NYC-Taxi and NYC-Bike datasets.
Graphs are general and powerful data representations which can model complex real-world phenomena, ranging from chemical compounds to social networks; however, effective feature extraction from graphs is not a trivial task, and much work has been done in the field of machine learning and data mining. The recent advance…
Study identifies negative data externalities affecting model performance on specific groups.
problem Negative data externalities on group performance in machine learning models.
method Characterized and detected data-model inefficiencies, focusing on specific types of externalities.
result Negative data externalities can lower model performance on specific sub-groups, even with larger datasets.
Method estimates model performance on external samples from limited statistical characteristics.
problem Limited access to multiple datasets due to privacy and commercial restrictions.
method Search for weights that match external statistics and are closest to uniform, using model performance on weighted internal sample as an estimation.
result Estimated external performance is closer to actual performance than internal performance.
Study improves predictive models for ICU data across hospitals.
problem Degradation of predictive model performance in new hospitals.
method Anchor regression and anchor boosting for domain generalization.
result Anchor regularization enhances out-of-distribution performance.
Model predicts market dynamics of competing technologies.
problem Understanding market dynamics and technology competition.
method Modified Replicator Dynamics model with external influences.
result Shows how external influences affect market outcomes.
Predicting panic is of critical importance in many areas of human and animal behavior, notably in the context of economics. The recent financial crisis is a case in point. Panic may be due to a specific external threat, or self-generated nervousness. Here we show that the recent economic crisis and earlier large single…
Study shows stock price interactions increase during crises due to external stimulus.
problem Understanding stock price interactions during economic crises.
method Granger Causality and recurrence analysis on stock price series.
result External stimulus drives stock price interactions during crises.
A predictor improves power grid frequency forecasts up to one hour.
problem Improving frequency forecast for better power system stability.
method Developed a weighted-nearest-neighbor (WNN) predictor.
result Forecasts for up to one hour are more precise than averaged daily profiles.
Task-oriented dialog presents a difficult challenge encompassing multiple problems including multi-turn language understanding and generation, knowledge retrieval and reasoning, and action prediction. Modern dialog systems typically begin by converting conversation history to a symbolic object referred to as belief sta…
Deep learning models exhibit state-of-the-art performance for many predictive healthcare tasks using electronic health records (EHR) data, but these models typically require training data volume that exceeds the capacity of most healthcare systems. External resources such as medical ontologies are used to bridge the da…
engGNN combines external and generated graphs to improve disease classification and biomarker discovery.
problem Challenges in integrating omics data due to high dimensionality and small sample sizes.
method Dual-graph framework that integrates external biological networks with data-driven generated graphs.
result engGNN outperforms state-of-the-art methods in disease classification and biomarker discovery.
Spatio-temporal (ST) data for urban applications, such as taxi demand, traffic flow, regional rainfall is inherently stochastic and unpredictable. Recently, deep learning based ST prediction models are proposed to learn the ST characteristics of data. However, it is still very challenging (1) to adequately learn the co…
Study evaluates uncertainty in BP estimation from PPG signals under domain shift.
problem Uncertainty quantification in healthcare, especially for cuffless BP estimation.
method Compared deep ensembles, Monte Carlo dropout, and various recalibration techniques.
result Deep ensembles provide stronger robustness under domain shift.
The study analyzes Bitcoin market volatility using GARCH models and external information.
problem Modeling time-varying volatility in Bitcoin market.
method Combines GARCH models with a mixture of distribution hypothesis using external information.
result The simplest GARCH(1,1) model performs best in predicting volatility with external signal.
Perceptual capabilities of artificial systems have come a long way since the advent of deep learning. These methods have proven to be effective, however they are not as efficient as their biological counterparts. Visual attention is a set of mechanisms that are employed in biological visual systems to ease computationa…
Improved fantasy football performance predictor using human feedback.
problem Lack of external factors in traditional statistical models.
method Combining statistical data with human feedback from various sources.
result Model outperformed regular statistical predictors by over 300 points.
The demand for fast and accurate structural analysis is becoming increasingly more prevalent with the advance of generative design and topology optimization technologies. As one step toward accelerating structural analysis, this work explores a deep learning based approach for predicting the stress fields in 2D linear …
We study a dynamical Ising model of agents' opinions (buy or sell) with coupling coefficients reassessed continuously in time according to how past external news (magnetic field) have explained realized market returns. By combining herding, the impact of external news and private information, we test within the same mo…
Develops a KL-divergence-based deep learning method for survival analysis with short data.
problem Challenges of training deep learning models with limited survival data.
method Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to integrate external and internal data.
result Proposed model achieves better performance and higher robustness.
FFRK automatically extracts features for spatial interpolation without external variables.
problem Spatial interpolation challenges, especially nonstationarity and lack of explanatory variables.
method Feature-Free Regression Kriging (FFRK) method that extracts geospatial features.
result FFRK outperforms classical methods in predicting heavy metal concentrations.
Proposes using external data to improve predictions in medical applications with limited samples.
problem Small sample sizes and complex covariate-response relationships in medical data.
method Integrates external co-data into Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) using an empirical Bayes framework.
result Improves prediction accuracy compared to standard BART, especially for nonlinear relationships.
Method predicts NAFLD risk with high accuracy and distribution-free coverage guarantees.
problem Insufficient population-level screening tools for NAFLD.
method Gradient-boosted decision trees with conformal prediction.
result Method achieves AUROC of 0.912 internally and 0.891 externally, superior to other models.
MELO predicts electricity loads by adapting to shifts without external indicators.
problem Adapting to non-stationary prediction challenges in online settings.
method MELO combines multiple forgetting factors and aggregation rules to adaptively predict.
result MELO reduces RMSE by 34.7% compared to base predictors and external covariates.
Bayesian inference reconstructs external potentials in DFT for many-particle systems.
problem Reconstructing external potentials in classical density-functional theory (DFT) for many-particle systems.
method Combines Bayesian inference with classical DFT to probabilistically reconstruct external potentials.
result Accurately infers external potentials and density profiles with uncertainty quantification.
For quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) studies in chemoinformatics, it is important to get interpretable relationship between chemical properties and chemical features. However, the predictive power and interpretability of QSPR models are usually two different objectives that are difficult to achieve s…
MEC-Cox: A Machine-Learning-Assisted Generalized Entropy Calibration Method for Estimating ATT Marginal Hazard-Ratio
problem Estimating ATT marginal hazard-ratio in externally controlled survival trials
method Machine-learning-assisted generalized entropy calibration for IPW Cox regression
result Reduces bias, increases efficiency, and improves coverage
The vast majority of current machine learning algorithms are designed to predict single responses or a vector of responses, yet many types of response are more naturally organized as matrices or higher-order tensor objects where characteristics are shared across modes. We present a new machine learning algorithm BaTFLE…
PANDA predicts protein binding affinity changes from sequences, outperforming existing methods.
problem Accurately predicting changes in protein binding affinity due to mutations.
method Sequence-based machine learning approach using protein sequence information.
result PANDA achieves higher Pearson correlation coefficients than existing methods.
New estimator improves ATT estimation efficiency with external controls.
problem Reduced efficiency when incorporating external controls into ATT estimation.
method Proposes a novel doubly robust estimator for ATT that maintains higher efficiency than standard approaches.
result Demonstrates improved efficiency of the new estimator compared to standard approaches, even under model misspecification.
The study assesses external validity by evaluating worst-case treatment effects across subpopulations.
problem Underrepresentation of marginalized groups and limited study populations.
method Develops a semiparametrically efficient estimator for worst-case treatment effects (WTE) and uses cross-fitting to guard against brittle findings.
result The proposed framework guards against invalid findings due to unanticipated population shifts.
A method for logistic regression inference using both internal and external data.
problem Inability to estimate intercept and marginal case proportion in case-control logistic regression.
method Empirical likelihood approach integrating internal and external data.
result Intercept parameter becomes identifiable with external information, and all parameters are estimable consistently.
KG-WDRO optimizes transfer learning with external knowledge.
problem Over-pessimism in WDRO for small target samples.
method KG-WDRO incorporates multiple sources of external knowledge to construct smaller Wasserstein ambiguity sets.
result KG-WDRO improves transfer learning performance and adaptivity.
Study long-term asset liquidation behavior with external flows.
problem Investigate optimal liquidation in presence of external flows.
method Convergence analysis of BSDEs for value function and strategy.
result Long-term liquidation may not occur due to external flows.
Bayesian Tensor Network combines prior and data likelihood for efficient prediction and parameter estimation.
problem Overfitting and poor performance in Tensor Network models.
method Introduce prior distribution, use Laplace approximation for posterior predictive distribution, and propose stable initialization for parameter estimation.
result Reduces overfitting and improves performance of Tensor Network models.
Knowledge graph construction consists of two tasks: extracting information from external resources (knowledge population) and inferring missing information through a statistical analysis on the extracted information (knowledge completion). In many cases, insufficient external resources in the knowledge population hinde…
Study examines remittances in Nepal, linking external demand and domestic monetary conditions.
problem Understanding the dynamics of remittances in Nepal's economy.
method Constructed composite indices via PCA for external demand and domestic monetary conditions. Used ARDL, cointegration, DOLS, ECM, and machine learning for analysis.
result Strong positive long-run effect of external demand on remittances, significant negative impact of tighter domestic monetary conditions.
Novel framework predicts brain biomarker trajectories with superior performance.
problem Challenges in estimating longitudinal brain biomarker trajectories due to variability, inconsistencies, and irregular measurements.
method Personalized deep kernel regression with Adaptive Shrinkage Estimation.
result Superior predictive performance compared to state-of-the-art models.
This study introduces PV-RNN, a novel variational RNN inspired by the predictive-coding ideas. The model learns to extract the probabilistic structures hidden in fluctuating temporal patterns by dynamically changing the stochasticity of its latent states. Its architecture attempts to address two major concerns of varia…
Model predicts competition between similar products in sales.
problem Predicting cannibalization between similar products in sales.
method Developed a neural network model that computes a 'competitiveness' function based on product features.
result The model outperforms traditional methods in predicting market share.