Valuation of Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) has become an important field as its calculation is required in Basel III, issued in 2010, in the wake of the credit crisis. Exposure, which is defined as the potential future loss of a default event without any recovery, is one of the key elementsfor pricing CVA. This pap…
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Fast Calculation of Credit Exposures for Barrier and Bermudan options using Chebyshev interpolationq-fin.CP
We introduce a new method to calculate the credit exposure of Bermudan, discretely monitored barrier and European options. Core of the approach is the application of the dynamic Chebyshev method of Glau et al. (2019). The dynamic Chebyshev method delivers a closed form approximation of the option prices along the paths…
Paper optimizes neural networks for Bermudan option pricing with faster convergence and risk management tools.
problem Efficiently pricing Bermudan options with static hedging and risk management.
method Monte-Carlo-based artificial neural network framework with novel optimisation algorithm.
result The proposed neural network accelerates convergence and provides improved risk management tools.
With the maturation of metabolomics science and proliferation of biobanks, clinical metabolic profiling is an increasingly opportunistic frontier for advancing translational clinical research. Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) approaches provide exciting opportunity to guide feature selection in agnostic metabolic pr…
Randomized neural networks improve exposure and CVA estimation for American options.
problem Estimation of exposure and CVA for American options
method Randomized neural networks
result Improves convergence and efficiency in high-dimensional problems
A deep learning approach for computations of exposure profiles for high-dimensional Bermudan optionsq-fin.CP
Deep learning approximates Bermudan option exposures and future values.
problem Computing accurate expected and future exposures for high-dimensional Bermudan options.
method Neural network-based approach combining Deep Optimal Stopping and regression.
result Neural network approximations of pathwise option values are more accurate.
We introduce a new method to calculate the credit exposure of European and path-dependent options. The proposed method is able to calculate accurate expected exposure and potential future exposure profiles under the risk-neutral and the real-world measure. Key advantage of is that it delivers an accuracy comparable to …
The paper clarifies long-horizon investment and DCA, showing no risk reduction but different exposure profiles.
problem Misleading claims about reducing risk with longer investment horizons and DCA.
method Unified probabilistic framework, defining risk and uncertainty, and introducing effective investment exposure.
result Different investment timing strategies can lead to distinct exposure profiles over time, affecting risk and uncertainty.
Study prenatal PM2.5 exposure and 4th grade reading scores, identifying critical windows of susceptibility.
problem Understanding the impact of prenatal PM2.5 exposure on educational outcomes.
method Developed a locally adaptive Bayesian regression model with B-spline basis expansion and dynamic shrinkage priors.
result Prenatal PM2.5 exposure during early and late pregnancy is most adverse for 4th grade reading scores.
Efficiently models Wrong-Way Risk in FVA without full Monte Carlo.
problem Assessing Wrong-Way Risk in Funding Valuation Adjustments (FVA) without extensive simulations.
method Splitting exposure into independent and WWR-driven parts; approximating WWR-driven part using Gaussian stochastic factor.
result An efficient and robust method to include WWR in FVA modelling.
Automated investment managers, or robo-advisors, have emerged as an alternative to traditional financial advisors. The viability of robo-advisors crucially depends on their ability to offer personalized financial advice. We introduce a novel framework, in which a robo-advisor interacts with a client to solve an adaptiv…
New SigSwap model for path-dependent financial risk.
problem Managing complex, path-dependent financial risks.
method Geometry-based approach using path-signature and Signature Expected Shortfall.
result Path-dependent risks can be converted into transparent risk factors.
Paper uses neural networks to compress large portfolios of options, reducing risk and capital requirements.
problem Managing risk and capital requirements for large portfolios of financial options.
method Artificial neural network framework for portfolio compression, static hedging, and risk management.
result The compressed portfolio's risk profiles align closely with the target portfolio's, reducing capital requirements.
In this paper, we compare static and dynamic (reduced form) approaches for modeling wrong-way risk in the context of CVA. Although all these approaches potentially suffer from arbitrage problems, they are popular (respectively) in industry and academia, mainly due to analytical tractability reasons. We complete the sto…
This research develops a new framework to measure AI investment returns considering both gains and risks.
problem Traditional ROI calculations fail to account for AI's dual impact on risk reduction and new exposures.
method Integrates ISO 42001 and regulatory exposure into a comprehensive financial framework using risk quantification methods.
result Accurate AI investment evaluation requires modeling both productivity gains and risk exposures.
A new Mean Shift variant converges after a finite number of iterations for specific kernel shapes.
problem Improving Mean Shift algorithm convergence for specific kernel shapes.
method Developed a novel Mean Shift variant with a triangular kernel profile.
result The new Mean Shift variant converges after a finite number of iterations.
K-Models clusters functional data with ordinal constraints for better interpretability.
problem Challenges in extracting meaningful insights from functional data due to lack of interpretability.
method Integrates ordinal constraints into clustering to improve interpretability and structure identification.
result Enhances interpretability of clustering results while maintaining performance.
A key driver of Credit Value Adjustment (CVA) is the possible dependency between exposure and counterparty credit risk, known as Wrong-Way Risk (WWR). At this time, addressing WWR in a both sound and tractable way remains challenging: arbitrage-free setups have been proposed by academic research through dynamic models …
Green stocks show less factor exposure heterogeneity compared to brown stocks.
problem Exploring differences in factor exposure between green and brown stocks.
method Examined S&P 500 firms grouped by greenhouse gas emissions, analyzing factor exposure over 2014-2020.
result Green stocks have less factor exposure heterogeneity than brown stocks, except for the value factor.
Adaptive rerouting reshapes impacts of maritime chokepoint disruptions
problem How disruptions to shipping traffic at chokepoints affect global economy
method Empirically calibrated full-scale agent-based model of global commercial shipping fleet
result Rerouting changes arrival losses under chokepoint closures
Transcriptomics response of SK-N-AS cells to methamidophos (an acetylcholine esterase inhibitor) exposure was measured at 10 time points between 0.5 and 48 h. The data was analyzed using a combination of traditional statistical methods and novel machine learning algorithms for detecting anomalous behavior and infer cau…
2024 saw Bitcoin ETF approval, offering regulated exposure.
problem Understanding unique liquidity risks in Bitcoin ETFs.
method Analyzed premium/discount patterns in first four months.
result Premium/discount behavior differs from traditional ETFs.
The process of liquidity provision in financial markets can result in prolonged exposure to illiquid instruments for market makers. In this case, where a proprietary position is not desired, pro-actively targeting the right client who is likely to be interested can be an effective means to offset this position, rather …
Study shows short exposure and systematic risk exposure affect disposition effect asymmetries.
problem Understanding disposition effect in short vs long exposure positions and systematic risk.
method Generalized Odean measures, introduced Value metric, implemented dispositionEffect R package.
result Short positions exhibit weaker disposition effect than long positions under narrow framing, reversing in integrated framing.
Exposure bias has been regarded as a central problem for auto-regressive language models (LM). It claims that teacher forcing would cause the test-time generation to be incrementally distorted due to the training-generation discrepancy. Although a lot of algorithms have been proposed to avoid teacher forcing and theref…
The inability to see and quantify systemic financial risk comes at an immense social cost. Systemic risk in the financial system arises to a large extent as a consequence of the interconnectedness of its institutions, which are linked through networks of different types of financial contracts, such as credit, derivativ…
In epidemiology, identifying the effect of exposure variables in relation to a time-to-event outcome is a classical research area of practical importance. Incorporating propensity score in the Cox regression model, as a measure to control for confounding, has certain advantages when outcome is rare. However, in situati…
We study the impact of central clearing of over-the-counter (OTC) transactions on counterparty exposures in a market with OTC transactions across several asset classes with heterogeneous characteristics. The impact of introducing a central counterparty (CCP) on expected interdealer exposure is determined by the tradeof…
The paper proposes using function approximations to reduce the computational burden in measuring counterparty credit exposure.
problem The need for regular exposure calculations in finance, balancing between computational cost and risk simplification.
method Replacing derivative pricers with function approximations, proving error bounds, and using Chebyshev interpolation for convergence.
result Derives probabilistic and finite sample error bounds, showing significant run-time reductions and asymptotic efficiency gains.
Mack's estimator improves chain ladder prediction for large exposure insurance models.
problem Uncertainty quantification in compound Poisson loss models.
method Large exposure asymptotics applied to Mack's estimator.
result Chain ladder prediction uncertainty can be quantified without model assumptions.
Study estimates personalized effects of maternal PM2.5 exposure on birth weight.
problem Identify critical windows and heterogeneity in maternal PM2.5 exposure effects on birth weight.
method Heterogeneous Distributed Lag Models and Bayesian Additive Regression Trees.
result Evidence of heterogeneity in PM2.5-birth weight relationship, with some dyads showing 3x larger decrease.
New method debiases selection bias in PU classification with exposure data.
problem Binary classification from positive and unlabeled data with selection bias.
method Automatic Debiased PUE (ADPUE) learning method.
result ADPUE outperforms traditional PU learning methods on various datasets.
Collaborative filtering analyzes user preferences for items (e.g., books, movies, restaurants, academic papers) by exploiting the similarity patterns across users. In implicit feedback settings, all the items, including the ones that a user did not consume, are taken into consideration. But this assumption does not acc…
A method to produce personalized classification models to automatically review online dating profiles on Tinder is proposed, based on the user's historical preference. The method takes advantage of a FaceNet facial classification model to extract features which may be related to facial attractiveness. The embeddings fr…
Modeling incentives for content creators on algorithm-curated platforms.
problem Maximizing exposure for content creators on algorithmic platforms.
method Formalized exposure game model, proving effects of algorithmic choices on equilibria, proposing tools for finding equilibria.
result Algorithmic choices significantly affect content exposure and creator behavior.
Profile entropy measures learnability and compressibility of discrete distributions.
problem Understanding the learnability and compressibility of discrete distributions.
method Investigates profile entropy, showing its role in estimation, inference, and compression.
result Profile entropy is a fundamental measure unifying estimation, inference, and compression.
BN^2MF identifies unknown exposure patterns in environmental mixtures.
problem Identifying unknown exposure patterns in environmental mixtures.
method Bayesian non-parametric non-negative matrix factorization (BN^2MF) with non-negative continuous priors and a non-parametric sparse prior.
result Estimates patterns of chemical exposures without specifying the number of patterns.
A method to describe Riemann surfaces using graph profiles is proposed.
problem Describing Riemann surfaces in a graph-theoretic framework.
method Graph profiles to represent Riemann surfaces, establishing necessary and sufficient conditions for their existence.
result A criterion for the existence of Riemann surfaces with a given signature.
Researchers develop a new method to assess variable importance in spatial machine learning models for air pollution exposure prediction.
problem Understanding the mechanism captured by machine learning models in air pollution studies, especially with spatial correlation.
method Leave-one-out approach for variable importance measure applicable to models with separable mean and covariance components.
result The new method highlights differences in model mechanisms even for similar prediction accuracies.
Bayesian method detects outliers and uncertain points in data.
problem Detecting outliers and uncertain points in data using Bayesian methods.
method Generative model of data curation for aleatoric uncertainty, combining with epistemic uncertainty and outlier exposure.
result Principled Bayesian approach outperforms methods using aleatoric or epistemic uncertainty alone.
In cheminformatics, compound-target binding profiles has been a main source of data for research. For data repositories that only provide positive profiles, a popular assumption is that unreported profiles are all negative. In this paper, we caution audience not to take this assumption for granted, and present empirica…
CENNSurv models cumulative effects of time-dependent exposures on survival outcomes.
problem Challenges in modeling cumulative effects of time-dependent exposures on survival outcomes.
method CENNSurv, a novel deep learning approach that captures dynamic risk relationships from time-dependent data.
result CENNSurv reveals multi-year lagged and short-term behavioral shifts in survival outcomes.
Method controls extrapolation in prediction profiles for statistical and machine learning models.
problem Avoiding invalid predictions due to extrapolation in prediction profiles.
method Genetic algorithm optimization over constrained factor regions.
result Optimal factor settings without constraint are often invalid and extrapolated.
Bayesian approach models nonignorable missing data using copulas and marginal quantiles.
problem Nonignorable missing data in lead exposure and test score analysis.
method Gaussian copula model with auxiliary marginal quantiles for missingness indicators and study variables.
result Efficient MCMC algorithm estimates copula correlation and marginal distributions consistently.
The study tests a functional-form restriction on risk exposure dynamics using margin debt data.
problem Understanding risk exposure dynamics under capital constraints and slack.
method Testing a regime-conditional functional-form restriction on aggregate risk-exposure dynamics implied by VaR-constrained intermediary models.
result The contraction and growth of exposures under capital constraints and slack are observed and tested.
A new method uses counterfactual learning to improve recommendation system evaluation.
problem Inconsistent results in recommender systems due to exposure mechanisms.
method Proposes a minimax empirical risk formulation with an adversarial game to account for exposure.
result Shows improved learning bounds and effectiveness over various recommendation settings.
Speeds up complex portfolio exposure calculations.
problem Calculating exposure of portfolios with exotic derivatives.
method Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSMC) technique.
result Significantly reduces computation time for nested Monte Carlo.
Background: While machine learning (ML) models are rapidly emerging as promising screening tools in critical care medicine, the identification of homogeneous subphenotypes within populations with heterogeneous conditions such as pediatric sepsis may facilitate attainment of high-predictive performance of these prognost…