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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,051 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for exposure misclassification

Proposes a method to correct exposure misclassification bias in Cox models.

problem Challenges in estimating exposure-outcome associations with misclassified exposure data.
method An estimating equation method to correct for exposure misclassification-caused bias.
result Proposed method corrects bias in estimating PM2.5 level's association with lung cancer mortality.

Study identifies and mitigates causes of image misclassifications in CNN models.

problem Improving model interpretability and accuracy in image classification.
method Trained six CNN architectures on CIFAR-10, used conditional confusion matrices and misclassification networks to identify morphological similarity and non-essential information interference as causes of misclassification. Developed a method to reduce misclassifications by erasing pixels within top 5% saliency map bounding boxes.
result Identified two causes of misclassification: morphological similarity and non-essential information interference, and developed a method to reduce misclassifications caused by the latter.

Proposes a novel SVM model for binary classification with different misclassification costs.

problem Real-world classification problems with varying misclassification costs.
method Incorporates performance constraints in SVM formulation to seek a hyperplane with maximal margin and misclassification rates below given thresholds.
result The proposed model gives users control over misclassification rates in one class at the expense of the other.

Paper introduces a new uncertainty measure for misclassification detection.

problem Effective detection of unreliable model predictions in machine learning.
method Data-driven measure of uncertainty relative to an observer based on soft-predictions.
result Demonstrates improved misclassification detection over state-of-the-art methods.

Green stocks show less factor exposure heterogeneity compared to brown stocks.

problem Exploring differences in factor exposure between green and brown stocks.
method Examined S&P 500 firms grouped by greenhouse gas emissions, analyzing factor exposure over 2014-2020.
result Green stocks have less factor exposure heterogeneity than brown stocks, except for the value factor.

Detects misclassifications and adversarial examples using neural network logits.

problem Unable to detect misclassifications and adversarial examples in neural networks.
method Introspection using pretrained neural network logits.
result Simple 3-layer neural network trained on logits detects misclassifications competitively.

A new framework selects information sources to test hypotheses robustly, even with misclassifications.

problem Robust hypothesis testing with misclassification penalties.
method Introduces a misclassification penalty framework and an efficient greedy algorithm.
result Proposes a submodular surrogate metric for better selection.

Efficient algorithm for CLSBM reduces misclassification rate.

problem Reducing misclassification in community detection for CLSBM.
method Spectral-based algorithm for CLSBM, with theoretical misclassification bounds.
result Upper bound on misclassification rate of efficient algorithm.

New algorithm reduces misclassification costs in neural networks.

problem Reduces costs of misclassified instances in neural networks.
method Adaptive Cost-Sensitive Learning (AdaCSL) adjusts loss function to bridge class distribution mismatches.
result Deep neural networks with AdaCSL outperform other methods on cost-sensitive binary classification tasks.

Deep learning approximates Bermudan option exposures and future values.

problem Computing accurate expected and future exposures for high-dimensional Bermudan options.
method Neural network-based approach combining Deep Optimal Stopping and regression.
result Neural network approximations of pathwise option values are more accurate.

Study shows short exposure and systematic risk exposure affect disposition effect asymmetries.

problem Understanding disposition effect in short vs long exposure positions and systematic risk.
method Generalized Odean measures, introduced Value metric, implemented dispositionEffect R package.
result Short positions exhibit weaker disposition effect than long positions under narrow framing, reversing in integrated framing.

Convolutional neural networks improve image classification accuracy.

problem Improving accuracy in image classification.
method Analyzing the convergence rate of misclassification risk for image classifiers.
result A rate of convergence independent of image dimension proves the effectiveness of CNNs.

Study finds exposure bias distortion is limited and not incremental in open-ended text generation.

problem Exposure bias in auto-regressive language models causing incremental distortion.
method Proposed metrics to quantify exposure bias impact, used ground-truth prefixes instead of model-generated prefixes.
result Exposure bias distortion is limited and not incremental during generation.

Faster method for calculating credit exposure of financial options.

problem Accurate and fast calculation of credit exposure for financial options.
method Dynamic programming with function approximation to solve a dynamic programming problem.
result The method delivers accurate expected exposure and potential future exposure profiles faster than regression-based methods.

Optimal subset selection for hypothesis testing with penalties.

problem Optimal subset selection of information sources for hypothesis testing with misclassification penalties.
method Proposes a misclassification penalty framework and studies two variants of subset selection problems under centralized Bayesian learning.
result Proves the submodularity of the objective and constraints of the subset selection problems and establishes performance guarantees for greedy algorithms.

This paper compares two clustering evaluation metrics, revealing their differences and properties.

problem Understanding the differences between misclassification error distance and adjusted Rand index.
method Population origins, data analysis examples, detailed case studies, and simulation study.
result Reveals previous misconceptions about the two metrics and their distributions.

Paper optimizes neural networks for Bermudan option pricing with faster convergence and risk management tools.

problem Efficiently pricing Bermudan options with static hedging and risk management.
method Monte-Carlo-based artificial neural network framework with novel optimisation algorithm.
result The proposed neural network accelerates convergence and provides improved risk management tools.

The paper develops a method to accurately estimate the Bayes misclassification error rate.

problem Estimating the best achievable classifier performance without learning a Bayes-optimal classifier.
method Learning to benchmark using an ensemble of ε-ball estimators and Chebyshev approximation.
result The proposed method achieves an optimal mean squared error rate of O(N^(-1)) under a smoothness assumption.

New research shows logistic regression can achieve optimal error rate for agnostic learning of halfspaces.

problem Agnostic learning of homogeneous halfspaces with logistic loss.
method Constructing a well-behaved distribution and using logistic regression with additional convex optimization steps.
result Logistic regression can achieve Ω(extrmOPT)Ω(\sqrt{ extrm{OPT}}) misclassification risk, matching the upper bound.

We study the impact of central clearing of over-the-counter (OTC) transactions on counterparty exposures in a market with OTC transactions across several asset classes with heterogeneous characteristics. The impact of introducing a central counterparty (CCP) on expected interdealer exposure is determined by the tradeof…

2013-04-18abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper proposes using function approximations to reduce the computational burden in measuring counterparty credit exposure.

problem The need for regular exposure calculations in finance, balancing between computational cost and risk simplification.
method Replacing derivative pricers with function approximations, proving error bounds, and using Chebyshev interpolation for convergence.
result Derives probabilistic and finite sample error bounds, showing significant run-time reductions and asymptotic efficiency gains.

Study prenatal PM2.5 exposure and 4th grade reading scores, identifying critical windows of susceptibility.

problem Understanding the impact of prenatal PM2.5 exposure on educational outcomes.
method Developed a locally adaptive Bayesian regression model with B-spline basis expansion and dynamic shrinkage priors.
result Prenatal PM2.5 exposure during early and late pregnancy is most adverse for 4th grade reading scores.

Mack's estimator improves chain ladder prediction for large exposure insurance models.

problem Uncertainty quantification in compound Poisson loss models.
method Large exposure asymptotics applied to Mack's estimator.
result Chain ladder prediction uncertainty can be quantified without model assumptions.

Study estimates personalized effects of maternal PM2.5 exposure on birth weight.

problem Identify critical windows and heterogeneity in maternal PM2.5 exposure effects on birth weight.
method Heterogeneous Distributed Lag Models and Bayesian Additive Regression Trees.
result Evidence of heterogeneity in PM2.5-birth weight relationship, with some dyads showing 3x larger decrease.

This work aims to reduce inexplicable errors in deep neural networks by obtaining class-level semantics and penalizing misclassifications.

problem Deep neural networks misclassify images, leading to inexplicable errors that can harm trust and societal impact.
method Obtain class-level semantics, propose Weighted Loss Functions (WLFs), and train classifiers with these methods.
result Trained networks have more explicable failure modes and comparable accuracy to existing methods.

Collaborative filtering analyzes user preferences for items (e.g., books, movies, restaurants, academic papers) by exploiting the similarity patterns across users. In implicit feedback settings, all the items, including the ones that a user did not consume, are taken into consideration. But this assumption does not acc…

2015-10-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Modeling incentives for content creators on algorithm-curated platforms.

problem Maximizing exposure for content creators on algorithmic platforms.
method Formalized exposure game model, proving effects of algorithmic choices on equilibria, proposing tools for finding equilibria.
result Algorithmic choices significantly affect content exposure and creator behavior.

BN^2MF identifies unknown exposure patterns in environmental mixtures.

problem Identifying unknown exposure patterns in environmental mixtures.
method Bayesian non-parametric non-negative matrix factorization (BN^2MF) with non-negative continuous priors and a non-parametric sparse prior.
result Estimates patterns of chemical exposures without specifying the number of patterns.

Researchers develop a new method to assess variable importance in spatial machine learning models for air pollution exposure prediction.

problem Understanding the mechanism captured by machine learning models in air pollution studies, especially with spatial correlation.
method Leave-one-out approach for variable importance measure applicable to models with separable mean and covariance components.
result The new method highlights differences in model mechanisms even for similar prediction accuracies.

Bayesian method detects outliers and uncertain points in data.

problem Detecting outliers and uncertain points in data using Bayesian methods.
method Generative model of data curation for aleatoric uncertainty, combining with epistemic uncertainty and outlier exposure.
result Principled Bayesian approach outperforms methods using aleatoric or epistemic uncertainty alone.

This research improves PAC-Bayesian bounds for classification tasks using convexified loss.

problem Deriving generalization bounds for classification tasks with non-convex loss functions.
method Shift focus to misclassification excess risk bounds for PAC-Bayesian classification using convex surrogate loss and leveraging PAC-Bayesian relative bounds in expectation.
result Improved PAC-Bayesian bounds for classification tasks with convex surrogate loss.

CENNSurv models cumulative effects of time-dependent exposures on survival outcomes.

problem Challenges in modeling cumulative effects of time-dependent exposures on survival outcomes.
method CENNSurv, a novel deep learning approach that captures dynamic risk relationships from time-dependent data.
result CENNSurv reveals multi-year lagged and short-term behavioral shifts in survival outcomes.

Bayesian approach models nonignorable missing data using copulas and marginal quantiles.

problem Nonignorable missing data in lead exposure and test score analysis.
method Gaussian copula model with auxiliary marginal quantiles for missingness indicators and study variables.
result Efficient MCMC algorithm estimates copula correlation and marginal distributions consistently.

The study tests a functional-form restriction on risk exposure dynamics using margin debt data.

problem Understanding risk exposure dynamics under capital constraints and slack.
method Testing a regime-conditional functional-form restriction on aggregate risk-exposure dynamics implied by VaR-constrained intermediary models.
result The contraction and growth of exposures under capital constraints and slack are observed and tested.