Paper introduces a new method for risk-sensitive investment management using RL.
problem Risk-sensitive portfolio management with unknown model parameters.
method Combines RL and risk-sensitive stochastic control with Gaussian perturbations for exploration.
result Endogenous relative-entropy regularization and optimal investment strategy derived.
Optimal hedging framework with variational preferences under convex risk measures.
problem Optimal hedging with variational preferences under convex risk measures.
method Theoretical hedging optimization framework with dual representation of risk measures and utilities.
result Derivation of optimality and indifference pricing conditions.
ERTS uses Thompson sampling for Gaussian entropic risk bandits, achieving regret bounds.
problem Risk in decision making complicates reward maximization in MAB problems.
method ERTS (Entropic Risk Thompson Sampling) using Thompson sampling with an entropic risk measure.
result Regret bounds for ERTS under entropic risk measure provided.
Survey on risk-aware multi-armed bandits for better decision-making.
problem Risk measures in multi-armed bandits for better decision-making.
method Review of existing research, definition of risk-aware bandit problems, and algorithms for minimizing regret and identifying best arms.
result Consolidation and summarization of existing research on risk measures in multi-armed bandits.
Paper proposes CVaR-TS for risk-constrained MAB problems.
problem Risk in decision-making complicates reward maximization in MAB problems.
method Risk measure CVaR is used, and Thompson Sampling is adapted for CVaR.
result CVaR-TS outperforms other L/UCB-based algorithms in risk-constrained MAB settings.
Adapts safe policies for exploration in high-risk settings.
problem Balancing safety and exploration in high-risk environments.
method Uses conformal calibration on a safe reference policy to determine aggressive action limits.
result Safe exploration improves performance without requiring model class identification or hyperparameter tuning.
Improved risk-sensitive RL with exponential Bellman equation and better regret bounds.
problem Exponential gap between upper and lower bounds in risk-sensitive RL.
method Identified and addressed deficiencies in existing algorithms and analysis; developed novel analysis and exploration mechanism.
result Improved regret upper bounds over existing ones.
Quantum RNG improves financial risk metrics estimation.
problem Estimating financial risk metrics with high precision.
method Quantum-Enhanced Monte Carlo using QRNG.
result Improved accuracy in VaR and CVaR estimation.
In this paper, we study multi-armed bandit problems in explore-then-commit setting. In our proposed explore-then-commit setting, the goal is to identify the best arm after a pure experimentation (exploration) phase and exploit it once or for a given finite number of times. We identify that although the arm with the hig…
Regshock visualizes financial risks to help regulators manage systemic shocks.
problem Managing systemic risks in financial networks.
method Risk-island visualization algorithm and regshock visual exploration approach.
result Demonstrated improved risk management and control capabilities.
Paper proposes real-time risk metrics for stablecoin protocols.
problem Lack of risk management frameworks for stablecoins.
method Developed two risk metrics: capitalization and liquidity.
result Demonstrated practical benefits of real-time on-chain data.
This paper approaches the definition and properties of dynamic convex risk measures through the notion of a family of concave valuation operators satisfying certain simple and credible axioms. Exploring these in the simplest context of a finite time set and finite sample space, we find natural risk-transfer and time-co…
The paper explores risk-minimization for exponential additive models, providing mathematical expressions and numerical examples.
problem Risk-minimization in incomplete markets for exponential additive models.
method Derive explicit mathematical expressions for local risk-minimization strategies in exponential additive models.
result Provide necessary conditions for deriving expressions and confirm integrability conditions for specific models.
This paper optimizes cybersecurity resource allocation in networks with heterogeneous attacker and defender valuations.
problem Optimizing cybersecurity resource allocation in networks with heterogeneous attacker and defender valuations.
method Combining strategic behavior of players with contagion dynamics, a method is extended to determine optimal resource allocation based on simple network metrics weighted by risk profiles.
result The asymmetry between attacker and defender valuations drives optimal attack and defense strategies, shaping system resilience.
Proposes a new risk measurement method for risk-averse stochastic optimization.
problem Risk-averse stochastic optimization problems.
method Develops a risk measure based on argmin and minimum concepts.
result Guarantees the existence of solutions for the proposed problem.
A new reinforcement learning framework separates users into risk-tolerant and risk-averse groups for better performance.
problem Improving performance for risk-averse users in reinforcement learning.
method Introducing a tiered reinforcement learning approach with two policies: πextO and πextE. result Achieving constant regret for risk-averse users, independent of the number of episodes.
Paper introduces new risk measures that unify two existing types.
problem Combining two types of risk measures for broader applicability.
method Introduces a new class of risk measures that unify distortion and Haezendonck-Goovaerts measures.
result New risk measures defined on a larger space, with coherent properties in certain scenarios.
Health risks from cigarette smoking -- the leading cause of preventable death in the United States -- can be substantially reduced by quitting. Although most smokers are motivated to quit, the majority of quit attempts fail. A number of studies have explored the role of self-reported symptoms, physiologic measurements,…
The paper explores new risk models for autonomous driving.
problem Risk management and actuarial modeling for autonomous vehicles.
method Examines technical difficulties and proposes a novel risk model.
result The new model better reflects real-world driving safety.
Paper investigates Lambda Value-at-Risk under ambiguity and risk sharing.
problem Investigates Lambda Value-at-Risk under ambiguity and risk sharing.
method Establishes equivalence of robust ΛVaR and traditional ΛVaR under ambiguity sets, analyzes properties, derives explicit formulas, and explores risk sharing. result Unified and extended the concept of Value-at-Risk under ambiguity, derived explicit formulas for specific ambiguity sets, and explored risk sharing.
This paper explores crypto, blockchain, and Metaverse risks and opportunities.
problem Understanding crypto crashes and blockchain technologies.
method Interdisciplinary approach combining fintech, machine learning, and risk assessment.
result Blockchain technologies will continue to dominate, but discerning genuine projects is crucial.
When multiple agents learn in a decentralized manner, the environment appears non-stationary from the perspective of an individual agent due to the exploration and learning of the other agents. Recently proposed deep multi-agent reinforcement learning methods have tried to mitigate this non-stationarity by attempting t…
This paper explores portfolio management strategies to maximize alpha and minimize beta.
problem Maximizing returns while minimizing risk in investment portfolios.
method Examines asset allocation, diversification, active management, and risk management strategies.
result Combining these strategies optimizes portfolio performance.
New risk-sharing rules induced by capital allocation principles.
problem Risk sharing in corporate structures.
method Randomizing existing capital allocation principles.
result Derives new risk-sharing rules complementing existing literature.
We define risk-free portfolios using three gauge invariant differential operators that require such portfolios to be insensitive to price changes, to be self-financing, and to produce a zero real return so there are no risk-free profits. This definition identifies the risk-free rate as the return of an infinitely diver…
The paper explores risk measures and arbitrage in financial markets.
problem Quantifying and managing risk in financial markets.
method Introduces new risk measure axioms and characterizes arbitrage conditions.
result Derives the consistent price interval for financial contracts.
We propose a robust risk measurement approach that minimizes the expectation of overestimation plus underestimation costs. We consider uncertainty by taking the supremum over a collection of probability measures, relating our approach to dual sets in the representation of coherent risk measures. We provide results that…
The paper explores non-convex risk measures and their characterizations.
problem Characterizing non-convex risk measures without convexity or weak convexity.
method Characterizes monetary risk measures as lower envelopes of families of convex or coherent risk measures, considering law-invariance and SSD-consistency.
result Unified representation theorems for law-invariant risk measures, including VaR.
The paper connects higher order risk measures and stochastic dominance, showing their equivalence and integrating them with optimization.
problem Comparing and characterizing random outcomes in risk assessment.
method Exploring the equivalence between higher order risk measures and stochastic dominance, using stochastic optimization and expectiles as examples.
result Higher order risk measures and stochastic dominance are equivalent and can be used to characterize random outcomes.
The paper examines how markets can anticipate and react to arbitrage opportunities, revealing biases and risks.
problem The tension between no arbitrage, information efficiency, and risk anticipation in markets.
method Continuous time analysis with model- or event-risk, allowing pre-horizon risk-resolution and Risk-Neutral Equivalent pricing.
result Optimised trading can suppress the anticipation of predictable risk-outcomes, creating an apparent Status Quo Bias.
The book chapter discusses tail risk analysis for financial data using extreme value statistics.
problem Serial dependence in financial time series complicates tail risk assessment.
method The approach involves unconditional and conditional quantile forecasting.
result Serial dependence impacts multivariate tail dependence.
In this study, we analyze the aerospace stocks prices in order to characterize the sector behavior. The data analyzed cover the period from January 1987 to April 1999. We present a new index for the aerospace sector and we investigate the statistical characteristics of this index. Our results show that this index is we…
A new algorithm avoids worst-case outcomes in risky contexts.
problem Risk-averse behavior in contextual bandits is challenging.
method Developed a first risk-averse contextual bandit algorithm with online regret guarantees.
result First algorithm with an online regret guarantee for risk-averse contextual bandits.
In this study, we propose a new definition of multivariate conditional value-at-risk (MCVaR) as a set of vectors for discrete probability spaces. We explore the properties of the vector-valued MCVaR (VMCVaR) and show the advantages of VMCVaR over the existing definitions given for continuous random variables when adapt…
Real-world applications require RL algorithms to act safely. During learning process, it is likely that the agent executes sub-optimal actions that may lead to unsafe/poor states of the system. Exploration is particularly brittle in high-dimensional state/action space due to increased number of low-performing actions. …
We propose a numerical recipe for risk evaluation defined by a backward stochastic differential equation. Using dual representation of the risk measure, we convert the risk valuation to a stochastic control problem where the control is a certain Radon-Nikodym derivative process. By exploring the maximum principle, we s…
The investment risk minimization problem with budget and return constraints has been the subject of research using replica analysis but there are shortcomings in the extant literature. With respect to Tobin's separation theorem and the capital asset pricing model, it is necessary to investigate the implications of a ri…
The instability of historical risk factor correlations renders their use in estimating portfolio risk extremely questionable. In periods of market stress correlations of risk factors have a tendency to quickly go well beyond estimated values. For instance, in times of severe market stress, one would expect with certain…
Financial institutions face new model risks with AI, requiring enhanced model risk management.
problem New model risks from Generative AI applications in financial institutions.
method Enhanced model risk framework with additional testing and controls.
result Financial institutions need to enhance their model risk management for Generative AI applications.
The paper examines expectile quadrangle properties in risk management.
problem Exploring the properties of expectile quadrangles in risk management.
method Rigorously examines the properties of expectile quadrangles.
result Rigorously examines the properties of expectile quadrangles.
This paper extends the MAB problem to consider risk-reward tradeoffs.
problem Maximizing reward while accounting for risk in multi-armed bandit problems.
method Introduced the Risk Aware Lower Confidence Bound (RALCB) algorithm to solve the mean-variance MAB problem.
result The RALCB algorithm performs better than the algorithm in Sani et al. (2012) in both independent and dependent scenarios.
This study uses NLP to detect financial risks from documents.
problem Detecting and predicting financial risks in documents.
method NLP model design, text preprocessing, feature extraction, machine learning.
result NLP model effectively identifies and predicts financial risks.
We study combinations of risk measures under no restrictive assumption on the set of alternatives. We develop and discuss results regarding the preservation of properties and acceptance sets for the combinations of risk measures. One of the main results is the representation of resulting risk measures from the properti…
This paper explores how RL enhances HFT strategies in volatile markets.
problem Adapting to changing market dynamics in HFT.
method Deep Q-Learning applied to statistical arbitrage strategies.
result RL improves adaptability and profitability in HFT.
Deep Evidence Regression improves credit risk prediction uncertainty.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in credit risk predictions.
method Applying Deep Evidence Regression to credit risk settings.
result Demonstrated improved prediction of Loss Given Default.
We consider the problem of minimizing capital at risk in the Black-Scholes setting. The portfolio problem is studied given the possibility that a correlation constraint between the portfolio and a financial index is imposed. The optimal portfolio is obtained in closed form. The effects of the correlation constraint are…
Paper proposes a natural hedging framework with graphical assessment for longevity risk management.
problem Lack of a unified framework for natural hedging and graphical risk assessment.
method Structured natural hedging framework integrated with a graphical risk metric.
result Demonstrates flexibility, interpretability, and practical value for longevity risk management.
In this paper, we explore several Fatou-type properties of risk measures. The paper continues to reveal that the strong Fatou property, which was introduced in [17], seems to be most suitable to ensure nice dual representations of risk measures. Our main result asserts that every quasiconvex law-invariant functional on…