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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for explainable predictions

Method trains deep models to explain predictions with fewer examples.

problem Difficulty in humans understanding deep model predictions.
method Simultaneously trains prediction and explanation models with sparse regularization.
result Improves faithfulness of explanations with fewer examples while maintaining predictive performance.

Machine learning predicts homicide clearance rates with SHAP explaining key features.

problem Predicting and explaining homicide clearance rates in the US.
method Nine algorithmic approaches compared; XGBoost selected. SHAP used for feature importance.
result XGBoost best predicts national homicide clearance rates; SHAP reveals key features.

Local surrogate model improves time series forecasts and provides interpretable explanations.

problem Improving time series forecasting accuracy while maintaining interpretability.
method A local surrogate model is used to correct the base model's predictions, making the corrections interpretable by re-fitting the base model to the error-predicted data.
result The method can discover and explain underlying patterns in the data, improving both accuracy and interpretability.

AI system predicts acute critical illness from EHRs with explainability.

problem Lack of clinical interpretability in AI predictions for acute critical illness.
method Developed an explainable AI early warning score (xAI-EWS) system.
result System provides clinicians with insights into EHR data explaining predictions.

Explainable AI improves human decision accuracy but does not enhance it significantly.

problem Improving human decision-making through explainable AI.
method Comparing human decision accuracy with and without AI predictions, including or excluding explanations.
result Providing AI predictions improves human decision accuracy, but explanations do not significantly enhance it.

Proposes a simple method to explain aleatoric uncertainty in neural networks.

problem Lack of transparent explanations for uncertainty estimates in AI models.
method Adapting a neural network with Gaussian output to estimate predictive variance and applying explainers to the variance output.
result The proposed method explains uncertainty more reliably than complex approaches and outperforms them in most settings.

Layer-wise relevance propagation (LRP) is a recently proposed technique for explaining predictions of complex non-linear classifiers in terms of input variables. In this paper, we apply LRP for the first time to natural language processing (NLP). More precisely, we use it to explain the predictions of a convolutional n…

2016-06-23abs ↗pdf ↗

We adapt Shapley values to explain model uncertainty, connecting it to information theory.

problem Explaining uncertainty in model predictions.
method Adapted Shapley value framework to quantify feature contributions to predictive uncertainty.
result Deep connections between Shapley values and information theory quantities.

SPINEX improves time series forecasting with explainable neighbors.

problem Enhancing time series forecasting accuracy and interpretability.
method Leverages similarity and higher-order temporal interactions across multiple scales.
result SPINEX consistently ranks among top performers in forecasting precision.

Binary linear classifiers are the most explainable up to negligible sets.

problem Measuring the explainability of machine learning classifiers.
method Introducing pointwise coverage to measure explainability and proving the binary linear classifier is the most explainable up to negligible sets.
result The binary linear classifier is uniquely the most explainable classifier up to negligible sets.

A new method explains mixed features for predictive models using conditional inference trees.

problem Explaining complex machine learning models with mixed features.
method Proposes a method to explain mixed features (continuous, discrete, ordinal, categorical) using conditional inference trees.
result Our method often outperforms current industry standards in various simulation studies and real-world financial data.

A new explainable CBR system predicts financial risks with interpretability and good performance.

problem Predicting financial risks with interpretability and good performance.
method A novel explainable case-based reasoning (CBR) approach.
result The CBR system provides a good prediction performance and interpretability.

RAW-Explainer generates interpretable subgraph explanations for link predictions in knowledge graphs.

problem Interpreting GNN predictions for link prediction in heterogeneous settings is challenging.
method RAW-Explainer uses random walk objective and neural network to generate connected, concise subgraph explanations.
result RAW-Explainer strikes a balance between explanation quality and computational efficiency.

SEP framework teaches LLMs to generate explainable stock predictions.

problem Challenging task of generating human-readable explanations for stock predictions.
method Self-reflective agent and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) for autonomous learning.
result Fine-tuned LLM outperforms traditional methods in prediction accuracy and Matthews correlation coefficient.

Predictive modeling is invaded by elastic, yet complex methods such as neural networks or ensembles (model stacking, boosting or bagging). Such methods are usually described by a large number of parameters or hyper parameters - a price that one needs to pay for elasticity. The very number of parameters makes models har…

2018-06-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Study proposes explainable analytics for manufacturing process planning.

problem Improving data-driven decision-making in manufacturing.
method Combines process mining, machine learning, and XAI. Uses deep learning for prediction and Shapley values/ICE plots for explanations.
result Enhanced decision-making capabilities through local post-hoc explanations.

FATE predicts user engagement on social apps with explainable explanations.

problem Accurate user engagement prediction for social apps with explainability.
method FATE, a flexible neural framework incorporating friendships, actions, and temporal dynamics.
result FATE outperforms state-of-the-art approaches by 10% error and 20% runtime reduction.

Enhances explainability of AI models without sacrificing accuracy.

problem Lack of interpretability in black-box models like Deep Neural Networks and Gradient Boosting.
method Co-supervised Local Model Synthesis (SynthTree) using Mixture of Linear Models (MLM).
result Statistical models significantly enhance explainability of AI models.

Contextual PDA improves explanation of image classifications for saturated models.

problem Difficulty in explaining decisions of saturated classifiers.
method Proposes Contextual PDA, a faster method for explaining image classifications.
result Contextual PDA outperforms PDA in explaining image classifications of state-of-the-art deep networks.

New statistical methods improve explainability of boosting models.

problem Uncertainty quantification for boosting models is computationally intensive and hard to interpret.
method Derive methods for statistical inference using gradient boosting and Boulevard regularization.
result Achieve asymptotically normal predictions with theoretical guarantees and runtime independent of data size.

New sampling methods improve Shapley values for explaining machine learning predictions.

problem Computational limitations in calculating Shapley values for complex models.
method Asymptotic normality results and paired-sampling approximations (KernelSHAP and PermutationSHAP).
result Paired-sampling PermutationSHAP provides exact results for interactions of maximal order two and has the additive recovery property.

XOFM explains attribute effects in ordinal regression using piece-wise linear functions.

problem Lack of detailed attribute contributions in existing ordinal regression models.
method XOFM uses piece-wise linear functions to approximate attribute contributions and introduces ordinal transformation.
result XOFM provides superior explainability and state-of-the-art prediction accuracy.

Diagnosing an inherited disease often requires identifying the pattern of inheritance in a patient's family. We represent family trees with genetic patterns of inheritance using hypergraphs and latent state space models to provide explainable inheritance pattern predictions. Our approach allows for exact causal inferen…

2018-12-01abs ↗pdf ↗

Improved local explainer aggregation for interpretable machine learning models.

problem Improving the interpretability of black box machine learning models.
method Non-convex optimization and integer optimization framework for local explainer aggregation.
result Our method outperforms existing methods in terms of coverage and fidelity, particularly in multi-class settings.

Developed an explainable DRL model for financial portfolio management.

problem Inability of DRL agents to provide interpretable financial investment policies.
method Integrating PPO with feature importance techniques (SHAP, LIME) to enhance transparency.
result Ability to interpret DRL agent actions in prediction time.

Tree-LIME explains deep learning models using decision trees.

problem Deep learning models are black boxes, making them hard to explain and prone to biases.
method Developed a Tree-LIME approach using decision trees to explain predictions of deep learning models.
result Tree-LIME can capture nonlinear interactions and creates more reliable explanations.