Study tests if equity factors explain Bitcoin's risk and returns.
problem Explaining Bitcoin's risk and return with equity factors.
method Applied statistical methods to test Fama-French factors on Bitcoin's excess returns.
result Fama-French factors have explanatory power on Bitcoin's risk and returns.
Latent factor models have achieved great success in personalized recommendations, but they are also notoriously difficult to explain. In this work, we integrate regression trees to guide the learning of latent factor models for recommendation, and use the learnt tree structure to explain the resulting latent factors. S…
A study finds that only a few factors explain corporate bond risk, rendering extensive bond factor literature redundant.
problem The redundancy of extensive bond factor literature in explaining corporate bond risk premia.
method Bayesian Model Averaging Stochastic Discount Factor analysis of 18 quadrillion models.
result A Bayesian Model Averaging SDF explains risk premia better than low-dimensional models, with an out-of-sample Sharpe ratio of 1.5 to 1.8.
DF2M uses deep neural networks within a factor model for high-dimensional functional time series forecasting.
problem Forecasting high-dimensional functional time series with explainability and accuracy.
method Bayesian nonparametric model based on Indian Buffet Process and multi-task Gaussian Process, incorporating a deep kernel function.
result DF2M provides better explainability and superior predictive accuracy compared to conventional deep learning models.
We introduce a factor analysis model that summarizes the dependencies between observed variable groups, instead of dependencies between individual variables as standard factor analysis does. A group may correspond to one view of the same set of objects, one of many data sets tied by co-occurrence, or a set of alternati…
New proof shows norms can't explain deep learning's implicit regularization.
problem Understanding the implicit regularization in deep learning.
method Mathematical proof on matrix factorization problems.
result Implicit regularization drives norms towards infinity, suggesting rank minimization is key.
Survey of factor analysis, PCA, variational inference, and VAE.
problem Dimensionality reduction and generative modeling of data.
method Variational inference, factor analysis, probabilistic PCA, and VAE.
result Derivation and explanation of ELBO, EM, and closed-form solutions.
It is commonly believed that the correlations between stock returns increase in high volatility periods. We investigate how much of these correlations can be explained within a simple non-Gaussian one-factor description with time independent correlations. Using surrogate data with the true market return as the dominant…
spex-LVM infers interpretable latent factors from biomedical data.
problem Inability to learn sparse and interpretable hidden states.
method Factorial latent variable model with sparse priors and domain-relevant annotations.
result Robustly identifies relevant structure in RNA-seq datasets.
Ordinal regression predicts the objects' labels that exhibit a natural ordering, which is important to many managerial problems such as credit scoring and clinical diagnosis. In these problems, the ability to explain how the attributes affect the prediction is critical to users. However, most, if not all, existing ordi…
We find that the CAPM fails to explain the small firm effect even if its non-parametric form is used which allows time-varying risk and non-linearity in the pricing function. Furthermore, the linearity of the CAPM can be rejected, thus the widely used risk and performance measures, the beta and the alpha, are biased an…
Latent factor models (LFMs) such as matrix factorization achieve the state-of-the-art performance among various Collaborative Filtering (CF) approaches for recommendation. Despite the high recommendation accuracy of LFMs, a critical issue to be resolved is the lack of explainability. Extensive efforts have been made in…
Improves recommender system explainability by clarifying representation learning.
problem Lack of explainability in recommender systems.
method Proposes a novel explainable recommendation model by improving transparency in representation learning.
result The proposed model learns interpretable representations that are faithful to explanations.
New method explains high-dimensional sphere data with latent factors.
problem Understanding intricate dependence structure in high-dimensional sphere data.
method Exploratory factor analysis of the projected normal distribution with a fast alternating expectation profile conditional maximization algorithm.
result Uniformly excellent results on various data types, including tweets, brain imaging, and cancer gene expression.
Machine learning explainability limits identifying causal variables.
problem Limiting ability to identify important variables in machine learning models.
method Exploring machine learning explainability techniques and their limitations in identifying causal variables.
result Machine learning algorithms are sensitive to underlying causal structure, leading to misidentification of important variables.
New framework shows much of equity market risk may come from asset returns themselves.
problem Understanding the sources of risk in equity markets.
method Decomposes asset returns into endogenous and exogenous components, using statistical methods.
result Most of the risk in equity markets may be explained by a sparse network of interacting assets.
Regression Trees analyze stock returns, revealing market excess return as the most informative factor.
problem Understanding informational content of three factors in stock returns.
method Joint regression tree analysis of daily stock return data for 5 major US corporations.
result The market excess return factor is always the most informative in all cases (solo and joint).
This work aims to study the Portuguese regional agglomeration process, using the linear form the New Economic Geography models that emphasize the importance of spatial factors (distance, costs of transport and communication) in explaining of the concentration of economic activity in certain locations. In a theoretical …
A model explains stock returns and volatility using multifractal and rough components.
problem Reconciling multifractal stock returns and rough index volatilities.
method Nested factor model with multifractal and rough volatility components.
result The model explains stock index Hurst exponents larger than individual stock exponents.
A network-based approach identifies financial factors from asset interactions, explaining market dynamics.
problem Characterizing joint financial asset behavior through underlying drivers.
method Modeling market as coupled iterated maps, where asset returns depend on past returns and interactions.
result Stable patterns of co-movement (financial factors) emerge from asset interactions, explaining asset variance.
A conformal map from a Riemann surface to the Euclidean four-space is explained in terms of its twistor lift. A local factorization of a differential of a conformal map is obtained. As an application, the factorization of a differential provides an upper bound of the area of a super-conformal map around a branch point.
Paper predicts international trade flows using machine learning and factorization models.
problem Predicting international bilateral trade flows with PTAs.
method Two-stage approach combining SHAP Explainer and Factorization Machine models.
result Enhanced predictive accuracy and deeper insights into trade dynamics.
New risk factors improve stress testing accuracy.
problem Improving stress testing accuracy with new risk factors.
method Adapted PCA and autoencoders for dimension reduction and interpretation.
result Aggregated risk factors enhance stress testing outcomes.
New feature mapping approach improves recommendation accuracy and explainability.
problem Balancing recommendation accuracy and explainability using metadata.
method Maps uninterpretable features to interpretable aspect features, minimizing both prediction and interpretation losses.
result Strong performance in recommendation and explainability, eliminating metadata need.
MCPCA analyzes shared factors across multiple data contexts.
problem No tools to recover shared factors across multiple contexts.
method Developed a theoretical and algorithmic framework (MCPCA).
result Reveals shared axes of variation across subsets of contexts.
The paper explains implicit regularization in hierarchical tensor factorization and deep CNNs.
problem Understanding implicit regularization in complex neural network architectures.
method Theoretical analysis using dynamical systems to overcome challenges in hierarchy.
result Established implicit regularization towards low hierarchical tensor rank, equivalent to locality in CNNs.
Explains historical connections between vector bundle splitting and Riemann-Hilbert problems.
problem Vector bundle splitting over the Riemann sphere.
method Historical overview and connections to other mathematical problems.
result Explains the Riemann-Hilbert-Birkhoff problems and their relation to vector bundle splitting.
Deep learning improves covariance matrix estimation for better portfolio risk management.
problem Improving the accuracy of covariance matrix estimation for portfolio risk management.
method Formulated as a learning problem, used deep learning to automatically discover risk factors.
result 1.9% higher explained variance and reduced portfolio risk.
Since the introduction of risk-based solvency regulation, pro-cyclicality has been a subject of concerns from all market participants. Here, we lay down a methodology to evaluate the amount of pro-cyclicality in the way finnancial institutions measure risk, and identify factors explaining this pro-cyclical behavior. We…
New model explains low-volatility anomaly using adaptive multi-factor approach.
problem Explaining the low-volatility anomaly in stock markets.
method Used Adaptive Multi-Factor (AMF) model with GIBS algorithm to identify significant risk factors.
result Low-volatility portfolios perform better due to loaded risk factors, not just low volatility.
This paper compares two stock factor models in China's A-share market.
problem Contradicting results in existing research on stock factor models.
method Empirical analysis using China's A-share data from 2005-2020, orthogonalizing redundant factors, and 25-group portfolio returns calculation.
result The five-factor model outperforms the three-factor model in explaining excess return rates.
In the standard equilibrium and/or arbitrage pricing framework, the value of any asset is uniquely specified from the belief that only the systematic risks need to be remunerated by the market. Here, we show that, even for arbitrary large economies when the distribution of the capitalization of firms is sufficiently he…
We derive simple return models for several classes of bond portfolios. With only one or two risk factors our models are able to explain most of the return variations in portfolios of fixed rate government bonds, inflation linked government bonds and investment grade corporate bonds. The underlying risk factors have nat…
Study finds it hard to establish common factor pricing in corporate bonds.
problem Difficulty in establishing common factor pricing in corporate bonds.
method Portfolio- and bond-level analyses using multifactor models.
result Common factor pricing in corporate bonds is not significantly explanatory.
A new model explains asset returns with a single factor, improving cross-sectional performance.
problem Understanding the cross-section of asset returns with complex models.
method Proposes a non-linear single-factor asset pricing model with a nonparametric link function estimated jointly with sieve-based estimators.
result The model delivers superior cross-sectional performance with a low-dimensional approximation of the link function.
We consider the problem of learning a linear factor model. We propose a regularized form of principal component analysis (PCA) and demonstrate through experiments with synthetic and real data the superiority of resulting estimates to those produced by pre-existing factor analysis approaches. We also establish theoretic…
We introduce a new factor model for log volatilities that performs dimensionality reduction and considers contributions globally through the market, and locally through cluster structure and their interactions. We do not assume a-priori the number of clusters in the data, instead using the Directed Bubble Hierarchical …
Method for factor analysis in short panels without assuming sphericity or Gaussianity.
problem Factor analysis in short panels without assuming sphericity or Gaussianity.
method Pseudo maximum likelihood method and asymptotically uniformly most powerful invariant test.
result Systematic risk explains a large part of cross-sectional total variance in bear markets but is not spanned by observed factors.
The present study introduce the human capital component to the Fama and French five-factor model proposing an equilibrium six-factor asset pricing model. The study employs an aggregate of four sets of portfolios mimicking size and industry with varying dimensions. The first set consists of three set of six portfolios e…
QRAFTI uses multi-agent framework to improve equity factor research.
problem Replicating and developing new equity factors in large financial datasets.
method Integrates a research toolkit with MCP servers for data access and custom coding operations.
result Improves performance and explainability in multi-step empirical tasks.
In this paper, we revisit implicit regularization from the ground up using notions from dynamical systems and invariant subspaces of Morse functions. The key contributions are a new criterion for implicit regularization---a leading contender to explain the generalization power of deep models such as neural networks---a…
New statistical factors improve portfolio risk estimation.
problem Improving estimation of portfolio risk using new statistical factors.
method Matrix factor models and statistical methods (partial F test, double selection LASSO).
result New statistical factors add explanatory power in asset pricing.
Muon with Newton-Schulz converges to the same stationary point as SVD-polar, up to a constant factor.
problem Improving the convergence rate of Muon optimizer.
method Using Newton-Schulz steps for momentum orthogonalization, proving convergence rate and constant factor.
result Muon with Newton-Schulz converges to the same stationary point as SVD-polar, up to a constant factor.
RL learns to ignore factors in factor investing portfolios.
problem Combining factor investing and reinforcement learning for optimal portfolio allocation.
method RL agent learns through sequential allocations based on firms' characteristics using Dirichlet distributions.
result RL-based portfolios are very close to equally-weighted allocations, indicating agnostic factor learning.
The study examines cross-border lending behavior from G7 countries, showing changes in driving factors after the 2008 financial crisis.
problem Understanding the factors affecting cross-border lending behavior among G7 countries.
method Employed a gravity model to analyze bilateral and global factors influencing cross-border lending.
result Driving factors for cross-border lending have changed since the 2008 financial crisis, with continent variable becoming more significant.
One primary task of population health analysis is the identification of risk factors that, for some subpopulation, have a significant association with some health condition. Examples include finding lifestyle factors associated with chronic diseases and finding genetic mutations associated with diseases in precision he…
Novel S-MF-DFA detects structured multifractality in crypto markets.
problem Analyzing scaling regularity of cryptocurrencies.
method Structural detrended multifractal fluctuation analysis (S-MF-DFA) with change-points detection.
result Main cryptocurrencies exhibit structured multifractality, with decreasing multifractality after 2018.
We present novel understandings of the Gamma-Poisson (GaP) model, a probabilistic matrix factorization model for count data. We show that GaP can be rewritten free of the score/activation matrix. This gives us new insights about the estimation of the topic/dictionary matrix by maximum marginal likelihood estimation. In…