New statistical methods improve explainability of boosting models.
problem Uncertainty quantification for boosting models is computationally intensive and hard to interpret.
method Derive methods for statistical inference using gradient boosting and Boulevard regularization.
result Achieve asymptotically normal predictions with theoretical guarantees and runtime independent of data size.
New findings show margins are not sufficient for explaining gradient boosting performance.
problem The inadequacy of margin explanations in explaining the performance of gradient boosting.
method Demonstrated and proved a stronger margin-based generalization bound for boosted classifiers.
result Proved a stronger margin-based generalization bound that explains the performance of modern gradient boosters.
EBMs become opaque in high dimensions; LASSO sparsifies them.
problem Reducing complexity and improving interpretability of EBMs in high-dimensional settings.
method Applying LASSO to reweight and remove less relevant terms from EBMs.
result EBMs maintain transparency and fast scoring times with reduced complexity.
SHAP explains boosted trees with additively modeled features.
problem Explaining predictions of boosted trees models with additively modeled features.
method SHAP values for additively modeled features in boosted trees models.
result SHAP dependence plot matches partial dependence plot for additively modeled features.
In this tutorial paper, we first define mean squared error, variance, covariance, and bias of both random variables and classification/predictor models. Then, we formulate the true and generalization errors of the model for both training and validation/test instances where we make use of the Stein's Unbiased Risk Estim…
Supervised machine learning algorithms have seen spectacular advances and surpassed human level performance in a wide range of specific applications. However, using complex ensemble or deep learning algorithms typically results in black box models, where the path leading to individual predictions cannot be followed in …
EBM improves car insurance claim severity and frequency prediction while maintaining interpretability.
problem Balancing predictive accuracy and interpretability in insurance claim modeling.
method Combines GAM and cyclic gradient boosting, providing interpretable predictions.
result EBM outperforms benchmark models in claim severity and frequency prediction.
New ML algorithms improve model interpretability without sacrificing performance.
problem Lack of interpretability in complex machine learning models.
method Developed new algorithms based on fANOVA framework, including GAMI-Lin-T and GAMI-Net.
result GAMI-Lin-T and GAMI-Net perform comparably to EBM and better in interpretability.
InterpretML is an open-source Python package which exposes machine learning interpretability algorithms to practitioners and researchers. InterpretML exposes two types of interpretability - glassbox models, which are machine learning models designed for interpretability (ex: linear models, rule lists, generalized addit…
GWRBoost improves GWR for better spatial relationship quantification.
problem Underfitting in GWR for complex data and lack of explainable quantification.
method Geographically weighted gradient boosting model using localized additive model and gradient boosting optimization.
result Significant improvement in RMSE and AICc compared to classic GWR.
SCORE improves tree-based predictions with boosted residual extraTrees.
problem Improving tree-based prediction models with reduced errors.
method Inspired by representation learning, SCORE uses boosting, regularized regression, and variable selection.
result SCORE provides comparable or superior performance compared to other models.
VisRuler simplifies decision extraction from bagged and boosted trees.
problem Complexity and lack of interpretability in ensemble models.
method Visual analytics tool for selecting robust models, important features, and essential decisions.
result Users successfully extracted and explained decisions from ensemble models.
XLabel tool reduces medical experts' workload by 40% and explains its decisions.
problem Efficiently labeling large electronic health records.
method Visual-interactive tool using Explainable Boosting Machine (EBM) for classification and explanation.
result EBM achieves high accuracy and explainability, even with mislabeled data.
The study develops a machine learning system for credit scoring and default prediction.
problem Developing a robust credit rating and default prediction system.
method Combines NLP, AE, GBM, DE, and SHAP/LIME for model interpretability.
result Obtained excellent out-of-sample performance in credit rating and default prediction.
Paper proposes hybrid approach for transparent credit scoring models.
problem Lack of transparency in machine learning models limits their use in regulated environments.
method Post-hoc interpretation of black-box models guides feature selection, followed by training glass-box models.
result Reduces feature usage from 106 to 10 while maintaining comparable performance.
AxNN improves model interpretability without sacrificing predictive power.
problem Black-box nature of machine learning models hinders interpretation and explanation.
method AxNN combines ensembles of generalized additive model networks and additive index models.
result AxNN achieves both good predictive performance and model interpretability.
Paper compares AI models for credit scoring and explains them.
problem Lack of interpretability in advanced AI models hinders credit risk management.
method Comparison of logistic regression, AI algorithms, and techniques to interpret AI models.
result Advanced tree-based models provide the best prediction of client default.
XEM improves multivariate time series classification with explainable models.
problem Multivariate time series classification challenges.
method Hybrid ensemble method combining explicit boosting-bagging and implicit divide-and-conquer.
result XEM outperforms state-of-the-art MTS classifiers on public datasets.
The paper proposes a new algorithm to select subsets of training data for better accuracy and explainability.
problem Tackles the challenge of balancing accuracy and explainability in pattern recognition.
method Identifies multiple subsets with simple local patterns by clustering similar instances.
result The sub-setting algorithm outperformed traditional decision trees by 15% on the international stroke dataset.
DILP improves fraud detection explainability without significant performance boost.
problem Improving fraud detection explainability in machine learning.
method Differentiable Inductive Logic Programming (DILP) for fraud detection with data curation.
result DILP provides comparable results to traditional methods but lacks significant advantage.
GAMI-Tree uses model-based trees to fit low-order fANOVA models.
problem Fitting interpretable fANOVA models with low-order interactions.
method GAMI-Tree uses model-based trees and a new interaction filtering method.
result GAMI-Tree outperforms EBM and GAMI-Net in predictive performance and interpretability.
Unified comparison of gradient boosting algorithms for insurance claims.
problem Improving predictive accuracy and computational efficiency in insurance claim prediction.
method Unified notation and comprehensive numerical study comparing 12 gradient boosting algorithms on 5 datasets.
result No trade-off between model adequacy and predictive accuracy.
Automatic machine learning performs predictive modeling with high performing machine learning tools without human interference. This is achieved by making machine learning applications parameter-free, i.e. only a dataset is provided while the complete model selection and model building process is handled internally thr…
GAMI-Net improves neural network interpretability while maintaining accuracy.
problem Lack of interpretability in neural network models.
method GAMI-Net is a disentangled feedforward network with multiple additive subnetworks designed for capturing main effects and pairwise interactions, considering sparsity, heredity, and marginal clarity.
result GAMI-Net achieves superior interpretability and competitive prediction accuracy compared to explainable boosting machine and other models.
Gradient boosting with randomized trees reduces discontinuities and complexity.
problem Discontinuities in regression functions due to sparse training data.
method Gradient boosting machine with partially randomized decision trees.
result Improves robustness and computational efficiency of gradient boosting.
Interpretable machine learning uncovers ESG's explanatory power on equity returns across sectors and capitalizations.
problem Explaining equity returns beyond market factors using ESG data.
method Interpretable machine learning models, cross-validation scheme, random company-wise validation.
result Gradient boosting models explain unaccounted price returns, with ESG data outperforming basic fundamental features.
This research improves demand forecasting by predicting complete probability density functions using machine learning.
problem Forecasting complete probability density functions for better operational decision making.
method Supervised machine learning method 'Cyclic Boosting' for explainable predictions.
result Predicted probability density functions are fully explainable and avoid 'black-box' models.
Excellent ranking power along with well calibrated probability estimates are needed in many classification tasks. In this paper, we introduce a technique, Calibrated Boosting-Forest that captures both. This novel technique is an ensemble of gradient boosting machines that can support both continuous and binary labels. …
Interprets AI model for identifying boosted H → b̄b jets.
problem Difficulty in explaining AI model decisions due to complexity.
method Exploring Interaction Network (IN) model and Neural Activation Pattern (NAP) diagrams.
result NAP diagrams reveal important information about hidden layers' activity.
New machine learning models improve credit scoring in banks.
problem Improving credit scoring models in heavily regulated financial institutions.
method Gradient Boosting Machines (XGBoost) and Shapley Values.
result Improved performance and default capture rate compared to current models.
A new ensemble model uses simple hyper-rectangles to improve gradient boosting machine performance.
problem Improving gradient boosting machine performance and avoiding overfitting.
method Proposes a new ensemble model with axis-parallel hyper-rectangles as base models, integrates into GBM, and uses SHAP for interpretation.
result GBM with HRBMs can be an effective and interpretable model for regression and classification problems.
Over the past decade, the stellar growth of Indian economy has been challenged by persistently high levels of inflation, particularly in food prices. The primary reason behind this stubborn food inflation is mismatch in supply-demand, as domestic agricultural production has failed to keep up with rising demand owing to…
New GPU algorithm boosts machine learning with larger datasets.
problem Limited GPU memory restricts training data size.
method Out-of-core GPU gradient boosting algorithm.
result Training larger datasets on GPUs without accuracy loss.
FAST optimizes additive segmentation for faster, more interpretable models.
problem Efficiently segmenting and interpreting complex datasets.
method Optimization framework for fast piecewise constant shape functions.
result 2 orders of magnitude faster than state-of-the-art methods.
Enhances explainability of AI models without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Lack of interpretability in black-box models like Deep Neural Networks and Gradient Boosting.
method Co-supervised Local Model Synthesis (SynthTree) using Mixture of Linear Models (MLM).
result Statistical models significantly enhance explainability of AI models.
The paper addresses interpretability issues in EBM models by improving feature selection and reducing spurious interactions.
problem Interpretability issues in EBM models, especially spurious interactions and single feature dominance.
method Alternate Cross-feature selection, ensemble features, and model configuration alteration techniques.
result Our approach improves interpretability and predictive performance of EBM models, reducing spurious interactions and single feature dominance.
Many modern machine learning models are trained to achieve zero or near-zero training error in order to obtain near-optimal (but non-zero) test error. This phenomenon of strong generalization performance for "overfitted" / interpolated classifiers appears to be ubiquitous in high-dimensional data, having been observed …
The paper investigates causal relationships in heart failure prediction using machine learning.
problem Understanding the causal relationships between clinical variables and heart failure.
method Proposes a new computational framework for causal structure discovery (CSD) of mixed-type clinical variables for binary disease outcomes.
result Feature importance from nonlinear classifiers strongly correlates with causal strength of variables, but not differentiating cause and effect.
Fair MP-Boost improves fairness and interpretability in boosting methods.
problem Improving fairness and interpretability in boosting methods.
method Fair MP-Boost uses adaptive sampling of minipatches to balance accuracy and fairness.
result Fair MP-Boost enhances fairness and accuracy while providing interpretable feature importance.
Boosting improves trend detection in financial data.
problem Discovering trends in financial data during crises and recoveries.
method Extends boosting to higher order integrated processes and series with roots near unity.
result Boosting captures downturns and recoveries more accurately.
Tuning SVM and boosting models using optimization algorithms.
problem Tuning parameters for SVM and boosting models across various datasets.
method Used grid search to identify parameter ranges and optimization algorithms to select models.
result Optimization algorithms outperformed grid search in selecting well-performing models.
EBLR improves time series forecasting with interpretable results.
problem Forecasting future events to reduce uncertainty.
method Iterative method starting with a base model, adding regression trees to explain errors at each iteration.
result EBLR substantially improves base model performance through extracted features and provides comparable performance to other methods.
The paper introduces closed-form expressions for interpreting Tsetlin Machines.
problem Interpreting complex Tsetlin Machines with a large number of clauses.
method Developed closed-form expressions for local and global interpretability of Tsetlin Machines.
result The expressions enable real-time feature importance assessment and data clustering.
In this survey, we discuss several different types of gradient boosting algorithms and illustrate their mathematical frameworks in detail: 1. introduction of gradient boosting leads to 2. objective function optimization, 3. loss function estimations, and 4. model constructions. 5. application of boosting in ranking.
Overview of SML techniques with banking applications.
problem Credit risk modeling in banking.
method Tree-based ensemble algorithms, Feedforward NNs, hyper-parameter optimization, machine learning interpretability.
result Comparison of ML algorithm features and their application in banking.
Decision trees perform well in complex interactions, even when interactions are not fully accounted for.
problem Interpreting complex interactions in machine learning models.
method Experiments on datasets and two methods for robust GLMs.
result Tree depth compensates for model misspecification, enhancing performance in complex scenarios.
Boosted conformal procedure improves prediction intervals.
problem Enhancing prediction interval properties like coverage and length.
method Gradient boosting to optimize conformity score function.
result Significant improvements in interval length and coverage.
HCBM improves deep learning explainability by non-linear concept aggregation.
problem Lack of explainable and accurate predictions in deep learning for high-stake decisions.
method Introduce Hoeffding Concept Bottleneck Models (HCBM) using Hoeffding functional decomposition of gradient-boosted trees for non-linear and sparse concept aggregation.
result HCBM outperforms standard linear CBM and is robust to interconcept leakage.