New statistical methods improve explainability of boosting models.
problem Uncertainty quantification for boosting models is computationally intensive and hard to interpret.
method Derive methods for statistical inference using gradient boosting and Boulevard regularization.
result Achieve asymptotically normal predictions with theoretical guarantees and runtime independent of data size.
New findings show margins are not sufficient for explaining gradient boosting performance.
problem The inadequacy of margin explanations in explaining the performance of gradient boosting.
method Demonstrated and proved a stronger margin-based generalization bound for boosted classifiers.
result Proved a stronger margin-based generalization bound that explains the performance of modern gradient boosters.
EBMs become opaque in high dimensions; LASSO sparsifies them.
problem Reducing complexity and improving interpretability of EBMs in high-dimensional settings.
method Applying LASSO to reweight and remove less relevant terms from EBMs.
result EBMs maintain transparency and fast scoring times with reduced complexity.
In this tutorial paper, we first define mean squared error, variance, covariance, and bias of both random variables and classification/predictor models. Then, we formulate the true and generalization errors of the model for both training and validation/test instances where we make use of the Stein's Unbiased Risk Estim…
GWRBoost improves GWR for better spatial relationship quantification.
problem Underfitting in GWR for complex data and lack of explainable quantification.
method Geographically weighted gradient boosting model using localized additive model and gradient boosting optimization.
result Significant improvement in RMSE and AICc compared to classic GWR.
SHAP explains boosted trees with additively modeled features.
problem Explaining predictions of boosted trees models with additively modeled features.
method SHAP values for additively modeled features in boosted trees models.
result SHAP dependence plot matches partial dependence plot for additively modeled features.
EBLR improves time series forecasting with interpretable results.
problem Forecasting future events to reduce uncertainty.
method Iterative method starting with a base model, adding regression trees to explain errors at each iteration.
result EBLR substantially improves base model performance through extracted features and provides comparable performance to other methods.
SCORE improves tree-based predictions with boosted residual extraTrees.
problem Improving tree-based prediction models with reduced errors.
method Inspired by representation learning, SCORE uses boosting, regularized regression, and variable selection.
result SCORE provides comparable or superior performance compared to other models.
HCBM improves deep learning explainability by non-linear concept aggregation.
problem Lack of explainable and accurate predictions in deep learning for high-stake decisions.
method Introduce Hoeffding Concept Bottleneck Models (HCBM) using Hoeffding functional decomposition of gradient-boosted trees for non-linear and sparse concept aggregation.
result HCBM outperforms standard linear CBM and is robust to interconcept leakage.
Improved credit scoring model with explainability.
problem Making financial decisions based on loan applications.
method Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model with 360-degree explanation framework.
result Model achieves state-of-the-art performance and provides understandable explanations.
GBHT uses gradient boosting for density estimation with theoretical guarantees.
problem Density estimation for unsupervised learning.
method Gradient Boosting Histogram Transform (GBHT) with Negative Log Likelihood loss.
result GBHT achieves faster convergence rates and better performance than base learners in density estimation.
VisRuler simplifies decision extraction from bagged and boosted trees.
problem Complexity and lack of interpretability in ensemble models.
method Visual analytics tool for selecting robust models, important features, and essential decisions.
result Users successfully extracted and explained decisions from ensemble models.
Paper compares AI models for credit scoring and explains them.
problem Lack of interpretability in advanced AI models hinders credit risk management.
method Comparison of logistic regression, AI algorithms, and techniques to interpret AI models.
result Advanced tree-based models provide the best prediction of client default.
EBM improves car insurance claim severity and frequency prediction while maintaining interpretability.
problem Balancing predictive accuracy and interpretability in insurance claim modeling.
method Combines GAM and cyclic gradient boosting, providing interpretable predictions.
result EBM outperforms benchmark models in claim severity and frequency prediction.
XEM improves multivariate time series classification with explainable models.
problem Multivariate time series classification challenges.
method Hybrid ensemble method combining explicit boosting-bagging and implicit divide-and-conquer.
result XEM outperforms state-of-the-art MTS classifiers on public datasets.
Unified comparison of gradient boosting algorithms for insurance claims.
problem Improving predictive accuracy and computational efficiency in insurance claim prediction.
method Unified notation and comprehensive numerical study comparing 12 gradient boosting algorithms on 5 datasets.
result No trade-off between model adequacy and predictive accuracy.
Supervised machine learning algorithms have seen spectacular advances and surpassed human level performance in a wide range of specific applications. However, using complex ensemble or deep learning algorithms typically results in black box models, where the path leading to individual predictions cannot be followed in …
The paper proposes a new algorithm to select subsets of training data for better accuracy and explainability.
problem Tackles the challenge of balancing accuracy and explainability in pattern recognition.
method Identifies multiple subsets with simple local patterns by clustering similar instances.
result The sub-setting algorithm outperformed traditional decision trees by 15% on the international stroke dataset.
New ML algorithms improve model interpretability without sacrificing performance.
problem Lack of interpretability in complex machine learning models.
method Developed new algorithms based on fANOVA framework, including GAMI-Lin-T and GAMI-Net.
result GAMI-Lin-T and GAMI-Net perform comparably to EBM and better in interpretability.
This paper presents an unsupervised method to learn a neural network, namely an explainer, to interpret a pre-trained convolutional neural network (CNN), i.e., the explainer uses interpretable visual concepts to explain features in middle conv-layers of a CNN. Given feature maps of a conv-layer of the CNN, the explaine…
There is a large literature explaining why AdaBoost is a successful classifier. The literature on AdaBoost focuses on classifier margins and boosting's interpretation as the optimization of an exponential likelihood function. These existing explanations, however, have been pointed out to be incomplete. A random forest …
Boosting and other ensemble methods combine a large number of weak classifiers through weighted voting to produce stronger predictive models. To explain the successful performance of boosting algorithms, Schapire et al. (1998) showed that AdaBoost is especially effective at increasing the margins of the training data. …
InterpretML is an open-source Python package which exposes machine learning interpretability algorithms to practitioners and researchers. InterpretML exposes two types of interpretability - glassbox models, which are machine learning models designed for interpretability (ex: linear models, rule lists, generalized addit…
This article provides a comprehensive study of different ways to make speed benchmarks of gradient boosted decision trees algorithm. We show main problems of several straight forward ways to make benchmarks, explain, why a speed benchmarking is a challenging task and provide a set of reasonable requirements for a bench…
Interprets AI model for identifying boosted H → b̄b jets.
problem Difficulty in explaining AI model decisions due to complexity.
method Exploring Interaction Network (IN) model and Neural Activation Pattern (NAP) diagrams.
result NAP diagrams reveal important information about hidden layers' activity.
DILP improves fraud detection explainability without significant performance boost.
problem Improving fraud detection explainability in machine learning.
method Differentiable Inductive Logic Programming (DILP) for fraud detection with data curation.
result DILP provides comparable results to traditional methods but lacks significant advantage.
AxNN improves model interpretability without sacrificing predictive power.
problem Black-box nature of machine learning models hinders interpretation and explanation.
method AxNN combines ensembles of generalized additive model networks and additive index models.
result AxNN achieves both good predictive performance and model interpretability.
Boosting theory explains why multi-scale GNNs work.
problem Over-smoothing in graph neural networks.
method Gradient boosting and transductive learning analysis.
result Test error bound decreases with more node aggregations.
Paper proposes hybrid approach for transparent credit scoring models.
problem Lack of transparency in machine learning models limits their use in regulated environments.
method Post-hoc interpretation of black-box models guides feature selection, followed by training glass-box models.
result Reduces feature usage from 106 to 10 while maintaining comparable performance.
We present a heuristic based algorithm to induce \textit{nonmonotonic} logic programs that will explain the behavior of XGBoost trained classifiers. We use the technique based on the LIME approach to locally select the most important features contributing to the classification decision. Then, in order to explain the mo…
A simple model explains deep learning phenomena like grokking and gradient boosting.
problem Understanding the unexpected behaviors of deep learning models.
method A telescoping sequence of first-order approximations to explain neural network performance.
result Empirical insights into neural network performance and training process.
XLabel tool reduces medical experts' workload by 40% and explains its decisions.
problem Efficiently labeling large electronic health records.
method Visual-interactive tool using Explainable Boosting Machine (EBM) for classification and explanation.
result EBM achieves high accuracy and explainability, even with mislabeled data.
Enhances explainability of AI models without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Lack of interpretability in black-box models like Deep Neural Networks and Gradient Boosting.
method Co-supervised Local Model Synthesis (SynthTree) using Mixture of Linear Models (MLM).
result Statistical models significantly enhance explainability of AI models.
Although interactive learning puts the user into the loop, the learner remains mostly a black box for the user. Understanding the reasons behind queries and predictions is important when assessing how the learner works and, in turn, trust. Consequently, we propose the novel framework of explanatory interactive learning…
We show that the Bregman divergence provides a rich framework to estimate unnormalized statistical models for continuous or discrete random variables, that is, models which do not integrate or sum to one, respectively. We prove that recent estimation methods such as noise-contrastive estimation, ratio matching, and sco…
Enhanced Random Forests outperform XGBoost across binary classification datasets.
problem Improving performance of Random Forests in binary classification.
method Adaptive sample and model weighting, iterative algorithm for sample weights, personalized tree weighting schemes.
result Significantly outperforms XGBoost across 15 binary classification datasets.
GAMI-Tree uses model-based trees to fit low-order fANOVA models.
problem Fitting interpretable fANOVA models with low-order interactions.
method GAMI-Tree uses model-based trees and a new interaction filtering method.
result GAMI-Tree outperforms EBM and GAMI-Net in predictive performance and interpretability.
Predictive modeling is invaded by elastic, yet complex methods such as neural networks or ensembles (model stacking, boosting or bagging). Such methods are usually described by a large number of parameters or hyper parameters - a price that one needs to pay for elasticity. The very number of parameters makes models har…
LGV boosts adversarial attacks by improving surrogate models.
problem Improving the transferability of black-box adversarial attacks.
method LGV uses a pretrained surrogate model and multiple weight sets from additional training epochs to generate an effective surrogate ensemble.
result LGV outperforms other test-time transformations by significant margins.
Empirical evidence shows that ensembles, such as bagging, boosting, random and rotation forests, generally perform better in terms of their generalization error than individual classifiers. To explain this performance, Schapire et al. (1998) developed an upper bound on the generalization error of an ensemble based on t…
Historical economic growth in countries of the former USSR is analysed. It is shown that Unified Growth Theory is contradicted by the data, which were used, but not analysed, during the formulation of this theory. Unified Growth Theory does not explain the mechanism of economic growth. It explains the mechanism of Malt…
ProtoNAM models tabular data with neural networks, making predictions transparent.
problem Tabular data analysis using neural networks lacks transparency and accuracy compared to tree-based methods.
method ProtoNAM introduces prototypes into neural networks to model tabular data while maintaining explainability.
result ProtoNAM outperforms existing NN-based GAMs and provides insights into learned feature patterns.
The study develops a machine learning system for credit scoring and default prediction.
problem Developing a robust credit rating and default prediction system.
method Combines NLP, AE, GBM, DE, and SHAP/LIME for model interpretability.
result Obtained excellent out-of-sample performance in credit rating and default prediction.
Automatic machine learning performs predictive modeling with high performing machine learning tools without human interference. This is achieved by making machine learning applications parameter-free, i.e. only a dataset is provided while the complete model selection and model building process is handled internally thr…
New method improves model explainability and accuracy with low computational cost.
problem Improving model explainability and accuracy in classification models.
method Distributionally robust optimization to learn sparse ensembles of rule sets.
result Improves model performance on various metrics compared to competing methods.
Ensemble learning is a method of combining multiple trained models to improve model accuracy. We propose the usage of such methods, specifically ensemble average, inside Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) architectures by replacing the single convolutional layers with Inner Average Ensembles (IEA) of multiple convoluti…
Decision trees perform well in complex interactions, even when interactions are not fully accounted for.
problem Interpreting complex interactions in machine learning models.
method Experiments on datasets and two methods for robust GLMs.
result Tree depth compensates for model misspecification, enhancing performance in complex scenarios.
Ensembles of decision trees perform well on many problems, but are not interpretable. In contrast to existing approaches in interpretability that focus on explaining relationships between features and predictions, we propose an alternative approach to interpret tree ensemble classifiers by surfacing representative poin…