A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
ExpCLR uses expert features to improve time-series representation learning.
problem Current representation learning approaches fail to ensure useful properties for time-series data.
method ExpCLR employs expert features to replace data transformations in contrastive learning, ensuring two useful properties for time-series representations.
result ExpCLR outperforms state-of-the-art methods on three real-world time-series datasets.
In this paper we introduce a model of lifelong learning, based on a Network of Experts. New tasks / experts are learned and added to the model sequentially, building on what was learned before. To ensure scalability of this process,data from previous tasks cannot be stored and hence is not available when learning a new…
For the prediction with experts' advice setting, we construct forecasting algorithms that suffer loss not much more than any expert in the pool. In contrast to the standard approach, we investigate the case of long-term forecasting of time series and consider two scenarios. In the first one, at each step t the learne…
We study a variant of decision-theoretic online learning in which the set of experts that are available to Learner can shrink over time. This is a restricted version of the well-studied sleeping experts problem, itself a generalization of the fundamental game of prediction with expert advice. Similar to many works in t…
In this paper we demonstrate how genetic algorithms can be used to reverse engineer an evaluation function's parameters for computer chess. Our results show that using an appropriate expert (or mentor), we can evolve a program that is on par with top tournament-playing chess programs, outperforming a two-time World Com…
We consider a variation on the problem of prediction with expert advice, where new forecasters that were unknown until then may appear at each round. As often in prediction with expert advice, designing an algorithm that achieves near-optimal regret guarantees is straightforward, using aggregation of experts. However, …
Recent work on imitation learning has generated policies that reproduce expert behavior from multi-modal data. However, past approaches have focused only on recreating a small number of distinct, expert maneuvers, or have relied on supervised learning techniques that produce unstable policies. This work extends InfoGAI…
A key challenge in online learning is that classical algorithms can be slow to adapt to changing environments. Recent studies have proposed "meta" algorithms that convert any online learning algorithm to one that is adaptive to changing environments, where the adaptivity is analyzed in a quantity called the strongly-ad…
In this work, we propose a generalized product of experts (gPoE) framework for combining the predictions of multiple probabilistic models. We identify four desirable properties that are important for scalability, expressiveness and robustness, when learning and inferring with a combination of multiple models. Through a…
When dealing with time series with complex non-stationarities, low retrospective regret on individual realizations is a more appropriate goal than low prospective risk in expectation. Online learning algorithms provide powerful guarantees of this form, and have often been proposed for use with non-stationary processes …
This paper investigates optimal trading strategies in a financial market with multidimensional stock returns where the drift is an unobservable multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Information about the drift is obtained by observing stock returns and expert opinions. The latter provide unbiased estimates on the cu…
We consider the forecast aggregation problem in repeated settings, where the forecasts are done on a binary event. At each period multiple experts provide forecasts about an event. The goal of the aggregator is to aggregate those forecasts into a subjective accurate forecast. We assume that experts are Bayesian; namely…
SurvMixClust clusters survival data and predicts individual survival curves.
problem Integrating clustering into survival analysis for precision medicine.
method SurvMixClust learns latent representations for clustering and predicts survival functions using a mixture of non-parametric experts.
result SurvMixClust creates balanced clusters with distinct survival curves, outperforming clustering baselines and competing with non-clustering models in predictive accuracy.
Many predictive tasks, such as diagnosing a patient based on their medical chart, are ultimately defined by the decisions of human experts. Unfortunately, encoding experts' knowledge is often time consuming and expensive. We propose a simple way to use fuzzy and informal knowledge from experts to guide discovery of int…