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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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3875113150 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for expert signals

A new framework uses deep RL to aggregate expert advice for better portfolio management.

problem Improving portfolio management through expert advice and deep reinforcement learning.
method Convolutional networks for signal aggregation and historical price data, Proximal Policy Optimization algorithm.
result Our framework can achieve 90% of the best expert's profit on average.

Study optimal trading strategies with expert signals in a hidden Gaussian drift market.

problem Optimal trading strategies in a financial market with hidden Gaussian drift and expert signals.
method Transformed power utility maximization problem into full information problem using Kalman filter estimates of the drift.
result Closed-form solutions for value function and optimal trading strategy derived.

We consider the problem of signal recovery on graphs as graphs model data with complex structure as signals on a graph. Graph signal recovery implies recovery of one or multiple smooth graph signals from noisy, corrupted, or incomplete measurements. We propose a graph signal model and formulate signal recovery as a cor…

2014-11-26abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper optimizes portfolios in a market with hidden drift and random expert opinions.

problem Optimizing portfolios in a market with hidden Gaussian drift and random expert signals.
method Modeling the hidden drift using Kalman filters and solving the utility maximization problem with dynamic programming.
result Derivation of optimal portfolio weights and utility maximization under the given market conditions.

Many real world learning tasks involve complex or hard-to-specify objectives, and using an easier-to-specify proxy can lead to poor performance or misaligned behavior. One solution is to have humans provide a training signal by demonstrating or judging performance, but this approach fails if the task is too complicated…

2018-10-19abs ↗pdf ↗

PRISM-VQ combines financial priors with vector quantization for better stock prediction.

problem Predicting cross-sectional stock returns is hard due to low signal-to-noise ratios and changing market conditions.
method Integrates expert priors, vector-quantized latent factors, and dynamic factor loadings.
result Consistent improvements in cross-sectional return prediction and portfolio performance.

Paper introduces a novel reward function for noisy financial markets using imitation learning.

problem Noisy reward function in financial markets hinders RL agent performance.
method Integrates imitation learning feedback with reinforcement learning to improve reward function design.
result Improves financial performance metrics compared to traditional benchmarks and RL agents.

New AMP algorithm estimates signals and latent variables in mixed regression models.

problem Estimating signals and latent variables in mixed regression models.
method Approximate Message Passing (AMP) algorithm for matrix GLM.
result State evolution recursion and optimal denoising functions for precise error minimization.

The paper analyzes EM for Mixtures of Experts and shows its equivalence to projected Mirror Descent.

problem Training Mixtures of Experts (MoE) models.
method Rigorously analyzes Expectation Maximization (EM) for MoE models using a Mirror Descent perspective.
result Derives new convergence results and identifies conditions for local linear convergence.

EBIL simplifies IL by estimating expert energy as reward, achieving effective performance.

problem Recovering optimal policy from expert demonstrations without reward signals.
method EBIL uses a two-stage solution: first estimating expert energy as reward, then learning policy.
result EBIL achieves effective performance and interpretable reward signals.

Framework uses human judgment to distinguish algorithmically indistinguishable cases.

problem Clarifying human-AI collaboration in prediction and decision tasks.
method Integrates human judgment to distinguish algorithmically indistinguishable cases.
result Improves performance of any feasible algorithmic predictor.

In this paper, a Wide Learning architecture is proposed that attempts to automate the feature engineering portion of the machine learning (ML) pipeline. Feature engineering is widely considered as the most time consuming and expert knowledge demanding portion of any ML task. The proposed feature recommendation approach…

2016-12-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Imitation learning is the problem of recovering an expert policy without access to a reward signal. Behavior cloning and GAIL are two widely used methods for performing imitation learning. Behavior cloning converges in a few iterations but doesn't achieve peak performance due to its inherent iid assumption about the st…

2020-01-21abs ↗pdf ↗

SAIL improves AIL by weighting adversarial rewards with support estimation.

problem Training instability and reward bias in AIL.
method Support-weighted Adversarial Imitation Learning (SAIL) extends AIL with support estimation to improve reinforcement signals.
result SAIL achieves better performance and stability on benchmark tasks.

Paper proposes government indemnification for AI risks to solve judgment-proof problem.

problem Uninsurable risks from AI, especially existential risks, create a judgment-proof problem.
method A government-provided, mandatory indemnification program using risk-priced fees and Bayesian Truth Serum.
result The approach better leverages private information and signals risk mitigation efforts.

Bayesian MoE framework improves LLMs' uncertainty detection.

problem Brittleness and overconfidence in deterministic routing of LLMs.
method Structured Bayesian routing in weight-space, logit-space, and selection-space.
result Significant improvements in routing stability, calibration, and OoD detection.

FinTradeBench benchmarks LLMs for financial reasoning combining company fundamentals and market signals.

problem Challenges in evaluating financial reasoning models for LLMs.
method Developed a benchmark integrating company fundamentals and trading signals, using a calibration-then-scaling framework.
result Clear performance gap between LLMs, retrieval improves reasoning over textual fundamentals but not trading signals.

Most generative models of audio directly generate samples in one of two domains: time or frequency. While sufficient to express any signal, these representations are inefficient, as they do not utilize existing knowledge of how sound is generated and perceived. A third approach (vocoders/synthesizers) successfully inco…

2020-01-14abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper improves self-play learning in games by manipulating experience distributions.

problem Improving self-play learning in games through better experience sampling.
method Three approaches: weighted sampling, Prioritized Experience Replay, and diversifying trajectories.
result Major improvements in early training performance in some games, minor improvements overall.

RED detects sleep EEG events using deep neural networks, outperforming previous methods.

problem Manual detection of sleep EEG events is time-consuming and variable.
method Deep Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) with convolutional and recurrent components.
result RED outperforms state-of-the-art methods in sleep spindle and K-complex detection.

Imitation learning algorithms can be used to learn a policy from expert demonstrations without access to a reward signal. However, most existing approaches are not applicable in multi-agent settings due to the existence of multiple (Nash) equilibria and non-stationary environments. We propose a new framework for multi-…

2018-07-26abs ↗pdf ↗

UNHaP removes noise from physiological events using Hawkes processes.

problem Challenges in identifying true events from spurious ones in physiological signal analysis.
method UNHaP uses marked Hawkes processes to distinguish and unmix true events from noise.
result UNHaP significantly reduces false detection rates and enhances event understanding.

Multi-expert L2D underfits more severely, requiring new methods.

problem Underfitting in multi-expert L2D settings.
method PiCCE (Pick the Confident and Correct Expert), a surrogate-based method.
result PiCCE effectively reduces multi-expert L2D to a single-expert-like problem, resolving underfitting.

Paper introduces OTR for efficient offline RL in surgical robotics.

problem Lack of annotated datasets for offline RL in surgical robotics.
method OTR algorithm using Optimal Transport to assign rewards to unlabeled trajectories.
result OTR enables efficient policy learning from large datasets without handcrafted rewards.

A new imitation learning method uses random search for simple policies, outperforming complex models.

problem Complexity and reward dependency issues in imitation learning.
method Derivative-free optimization with simple linear policies and random search.
result The proposed method achieves competitive performance on MuJoCo locomotion tasks without a direct reward signal.

TENP prunes experts and neurons in Mixture-of-Experts models for efficient deployment.

problem Efficient deployment of large language models constrained by static parameter footprint.
method Structured Trapezoidal ExpertNeuron Pruning (TENP) identifies and retains important experts and neurons.
result DeepSeek model achieves 10% better performance on code generation tasks with 40% expert sparsity.

Effective riverine flood forecasting at scale is hindered by a multitude of factors, most notably the need to rely on human calibration in current methodology, the limited amount of data for a specific location, and the computational difficulty of building continent/global level models that are sufficiently accurate. M…

2019-01-28abs ↗pdf ↗