The paper introduces a method to incorporate expert opinion on observable quantities into statistical models.
problem Tackling the challenge of integrating expert knowledge on observable quantities into statistical models.
method The approach involves updating a prior belief using a loss function that reflects expert opinion on observable quantities.
result The method allows for a flexible specification of expert opinion and is straightforward to implement.
This paper investigates a financial market where returns depend on an unobservable Gaussian drift process. While the observation of returns yields information about the underlying drift, we also incorporate discrete-time expert opinions as an external source of information. For estimating the hidden drift it is crucial…
Optimal investment strategy with expert opinions in uncertain conditions.
problem Optimizing wealth in a model with unobservable drift and costly expert opinions.
method Embedding into a full information problem, using viscosity solutions and stochastic Perron's method.
result Constructing optimal trading and expert opinion strategies under sufficient regularity conditions.
The paper develops a method for inferring second opinions from experts using counterfactual inference.
problem Designing efficient decision support systems for second opinions.
method Set invariant Gumbel-Max structural causal model for multiclass classification.
result The proposed model can infer second opinions more accurately than non-causal models.
This paper investigates optimal trading strategies in a financial market with multidimensional stock returns where the drift is an unobservable multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Information about the drift is obtained by observing stock returns and expert opinions. The latter provide unbiased estimates on the cu…
A new method combines experts' opinions to train regression models with noisy labels.
problem Training regression models with noisy labels from multiple experts.
method Estimate each labeler's expertise and combine opinions using learned weights.
result Empirically outperforms existing techniques on simulated and real data.
Bayesian model fuses multiple classifiers with explicit correlation modeling.
problem Combining outputs of multiple classifiers with explicit correlation.
method Hierarchical Bayesian model with correlated Dirichlet distribution.
result Fused classifier performance can be Bayes optimal even for highly correlated base classifiers.
This paper investigates a financial market where stock returns depend on a hidden Gaussian mean reverting drift process. Information on the drift is obtained from returns and expert opinions in the form of noisy signals about the current state of the drift arriving at the jump times of a homogeneous Poisson process. Dr…
The paper proposes using experts' insights in machine learning tasks.
problem Lack of reliance on experts' opinions in machine learning tasks.
method A three-step framework for integrating experts' insights into machine learning models.
result Proposed models achieve more stable and lower log loss results compared to top solutions.
Study optimal trading strategies with expert signals in a hidden Gaussian drift market.
problem Optimal trading strategies in a financial market with hidden Gaussian drift and expert signals.
method Transformed power utility maximization problem into full information problem using Kalman filter estimates of the drift.
result Closed-form solutions for value function and optimal trading strategy derived.
Sentiment Analysis of microblog feeds has attracted considerable interest in recent times. Most of the current work focuses on tweet sentiment classification. But not much work has been done to explore how reliable the opinions of the mass (crowd wisdom) in social network microblogs such as twitter are in predicting ou…
To quantify an operational risk capital charge under Basel II, many banks adopt a Loss Distribution Approach. Under this approach, quantification of the frequency and severity distributions of operational risk involves the bank's internal data, expert opinions and relevant external data. In this paper we suggest a new …
The paper optimizes portfolios in a market with hidden drift and random expert opinions.
problem Optimizing portfolios in a market with hidden Gaussian drift and random expert signals.
method Modeling the hidden drift using Kalman filters and solving the utility maximization problem with dynamic programming.
result Derivation of optimal portfolio weights and utility maximization under the given market conditions.
This paper investigates optimal portfolio strategies in a financial market where the drift of the stock returns is driven by an unobserved Gaussian mean reverting process. Information on this process is obtained from observing stock returns and expert opinions. The latter provide at discrete time points an unbiased est…
This paper investigates optimal portfolio strategies in a market where the drift is driven by an unobserved Markov chain. Information on the state of this chain is obtained from stock prices and expert opinions in the form of signals at random discrete time points. As in Frey et al. (2012), Int. J. Theor. Appl. Finance…
CNNs identify stock market trend endpoints based on expert opinion.
problem Finding optimal entry and exit points for stock market trends.
method Three CNN submodels sequentially identify changepoints, locate them, and classify trends as upward, downward, or flat.
result CNNs can identify long-term trends based on expert opinion, offering a new approach to stock market analysis.
Paper forecasts corporate default risk using Particle MCMC with expert opinions.
problem Predicting corporate default risk in the U.S. market.
method Bayesian approach with Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (Particle MCMC) algorithm.
result Volatility and mean reversion of hidden factor significantly impact default intensities.
We introduce a framework for analyzing transductive combination of Gaussian process (GP) experts, where independently trained GP experts are combined in a way that depends on test point location, in order to scale GPs to big data. The framework provides some theoretical justification for the generalized product of GP e…
We present a new approach for learning compact and intuitive distributed representations with binary encoding. Rather than summing up expert votes as in products of experts, we employ for each variable the opinion of the most reliable expert. Data points are hence explained through a partitioning of the variables into …
Study optimal investment with herd behavior using rational decision decomposition.
problem Optimal investment problem considering herd behavior between two agents.
method Introduce average deviation term, use variational method, rational decision decomposition, investment opinion.
result Quantitative analysis of herd behavior impact on investment decisions.
The issue of disagreements amongst human experts is a ubiquitous one in both machine learning and medicine. In medicine, this often corresponds to doctor disagreements on a patient diagnosis. In this work, we show that machine learning models can be trained to give uncertainty scores to data instances that might result…
The paper combines Bitcoin price models with expert corrections for better predictions.
problem Improving Bitcoin price predictions using statistical and expert insights.
method Linear regression models combined with expert corrections, utilizing Bayesian approach for fat-tailed distributions.
result Better price prediction results compared to using either model or expert opinion alone.
In order to improve forecasts, a decisionmaker often combines probabilities given by various sources, such as human experts and machine learning classifiers. When few training data are available, aggregation can be improved by incorporating prior knowledge about the event being forecasted and about salient properties o…
To meet the Basel II regulatory requirements for the Advanced Measurement Approaches, the bank's internal model must include the use of internal data, relevant external data, scenario analysis and factors reflecting the business environment and internal control systems. Quantification of operational risk cannot be base…
New method improves conformal prediction for ambiguous labels.
problem Uncertainty in expert voting labels affects CP guarantees.
method Develops Monte Carlo CP procedures approximating true posterior.
result Monte Carlo CP closes coverage gap with expert annotations.
This work uses variational inference to estimate parameters of opinion dynamics models.
problem Challenges in parameter estimation for ABMs of social phenomena.
method Transformed ABM parameter estimation into an optimization problem using variational inference.
result Estimates parameters more accurately than simulation-based and MCMC methods.
New framework models uncertainty in classification debates.
problem Weak interpretability of existing uncertainty quantification methods.
method Courtroom analogy and Mixture of Dirichlet Experts (MoDEX) model.
result MoDEX achieves state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification performance.
This work models the interconnection of company's investment managers' representations and the market attraction of its shares. The models that reflect the connection of the company's market effectiveness indices and parameters of its economic activity are created on the basis of the Mean-Variance Analysis and Regressi…
Social media provide a platform for users to express their opinions and share information. Understanding public health opinions on social media, such as Twitter, offers a unique approach to characterizing common health issues such as diabetes, diet, exercise, and obesity (DDEO), however, collecting and analyzing a larg…
New methods improve insurance data quality for catastrophic events.
problem Improving precision and size of insurance data for catastrophic events.
method Bootstrap, bootknife, and GAN algorithms.
result Compared MSE and MAE of simulated outputs, direct algorithm for fuzzy expert opinion.
Subjective Logic (SL) is one of well-known belief models that can explicitly deal with uncertain opinions and infer unknown opinions based on a rich set of operators of fusing multiple opinions. Due to high simplicity and applicability, SL has been substantially applied in a variety of decision making in the area of cy…
Recursive experts improve dynamic sequential learning systems.
problem Adapt to changing environments in sequential learning.
method Design hyper-experts that recursively merge to achieve optimal performance.
result Achieve minimax optimal regret bounds up to constant factors.
On a daily investment decision in a security market, the price earnings (PE) ratio is one of the most widely applied methods being used as a firm valuation tool by investment experts. Unfortunately, recent academic developments in financial econometrics and machine learning rarely look at this tool. In practice, fundam…
Ordinal data is omnipresent in almost all multiuser-generated feedback - questionnaires, preferences etc. This paper investigates modelling of ordinal data with Gaussian restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs). In particular, we present the model architecture, learning and inference procedures for both vector-variate and …
Expert system predicts credit card charge-offs using macroeconomic indicators.
problem Managing charge-off rates in the credit card industry.
method Developed an expert system using machine learning and macroeconomic indicators.
result Achieved mean squared error values of 1.15E-03 and 1.04E-03.
To meet the Basel II regulatory requirements for the Advanced Measurement Approaches in operational risk, the bank's internal model should make use of the internal data, relevant external data, scenario analysis and factors reflecting the business environment and internal control systems. One of the unresolved challeng…
An assistant learns to mediate decisions between humans and experts, balancing risk and learning.
problem Learning to mediate decisions between imperfect humans and expert knowledge.
method Formalizes online decision mediation, proposes a policy to balance immediate loss and future generalization.
result Consistent gains over benchmarks in decision-making performance.
In this paper, we model dependence between operational risks by allowing risk profiles to evolve stochastically in time and to be dependent. This allows for a flexible correlation structure where the dependence between frequencies of different risk categories and between severities of different risk categories as well …
Many banks adopt the Loss Distribution Approach to quantify the operational risk capital charge under Basel II requirements. It is common practice to estimate the capital charge using the 0.999 quantile of the annual loss distribution, calculated using point estimators of the frequency and severity distribution paramet…
In an increasingly polarized world, demagogues who reduce complexity down to simple arguments based on emotion are gaining in popularity. Are opinions and online discussions falling into demagoguery? In this work, we aim to provide computational tools to investigate this question and, by doing so, explore the nature an…
In a recent paper [1] we introduced the Fuzzy Bayesian Learning (FBL) paradigm where expert opinions can be encoded in the form of fuzzy rule bases and the hyper-parameters of the fuzzy sets can be learned from data using a Bayesian approach. The present paper extends this work for selecting the most appropriate rule b…
Analysis of opinion dynamics in social networks plays an important role in today's life. For applications such as predicting users' political preference, it is particularly important to be able to analyze the dynamics of competing opinions. While observing the evolution of polar opinions of a social network's users ove…
A classification of companies into sectors of the economy is important for macroeconomic analysis and for investments into the sector-specific financial indices and exchange traded funds (ETFs). Major industrial classification systems and financial indices have historically been based on expert opinion and developed ma…
Study improves fair opinion aggregation by balancing voter attributes.
problem Aggregation of opinions can be biased by voter attributes.
method Combines majority voting and D&S model with fairness options.
result Effective combination of Soft D&S and fairness options for different data types.
We consider the problem of signal recovery on graphs as graphs model data with complex structure as signals on a graph. Graph signal recovery implies recovery of one or multiple smooth graph signals from noisy, corrupted, or incomplete measurements. We propose a graph signal model and formulate signal recovery as a cor…
Opinions and beliefs determine the evolution of social systems. This is of particular interest in finance, as the increasing complexity of financial systems is coupled with information overload. Opinion formation, therefore, is not always the result of optimal information processing. On the contrary, agents are bounded…
Opinion polls have been the bridge between public opinion and politicians in elections. However, developing surveys to disclose people's feedback with respect to economic issues is limited, expensive, and time-consuming. In recent years, social media such as Twitter has enabled people to share their opinions regarding …
India's tax on crypto income sparks debate on its future.
problem Impact of 30% tax on Indian crypto market.
method Discussion of various opinions and predictions.
result Uncertainty about crypto's future in India.