A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A method for eliciting expert beliefs using preferential questions and normalizing flows.
Develops a simulation-based method to translate expert knowledge into prior distributions for Bayesian models.
Proposes method for eliciting non-parametric joint priors using normalizing flows.
Learning predictive models from small high-dimensional data sets is a key problem in high-dimensional statistics. Expert knowledge elicitation can help, and a strong line of work focuses on directly eliciting informative prior distributions for parameters. This either requires considerable statistical expertise or is l…
Providing accurate predictions is challenging for machine learning algorithms when the number of features is larger than the number of samples in the data. Prior knowledge can improve machine learning models by indicating relevant variables and parameter values. Yet, this prior knowledge is often tacit and only availab…
The paper introduces a method to incorporate expert opinion on observable quantities into statistical models.
Crowdsourced wisdom improves causal learning.
Prediction in a small-sized sample with a large number of covariates, the "small n, large p" problem, is challenging. This setting is encountered in multiple applications, such as precision medicine, where obtaining additional samples can be extremely costly or even impossible, and extensive research effort has recentl…
AutoElicit uses LLMs to quickly create expert priors for predictive models.
High-dimensional prediction is a challenging problem setting for traditional statistical models. Although regularization improves model performance in high dimensions, it does not sufficiently leverage knowledge on feature importances held by domain experts. As an alternative to standard regularization techniques, we p…
We generalise the problem of inverse reinforcement learning to multiple tasks, from multiple demonstrations. Each one may represent one expert trying to solve a different task, or as different experts trying to solve the same task. Our main contribution is to formalise the problem as statistical preference elicitation,…
Predicting the efficacy of a drug for a given individual, using high-dimensional genomic measurements, is at the core of precision medicine. However, identifying features on which to base the predictions remains a challenge, especially when the sample size is small. Incorporating expert knowledge offers a promising alt…
Combines expert models using Kullback-Leibler divergence to create a combined model.
This paper develops a new method for eliciting more flexible metrics, improving fairness and applicability.
Constructs new elicitable risk measures with multiplicative scoring functions.
Model uses LLMs to process numerical data guided by natural language descriptions.
A property, or statistical functional, is said to be elicitable if it minimizes expected loss for some loss function. The study of which properties are elicitable sheds light on the capabilities and limitations of point estimation and empirical risk minimization. While recent work asks which properties are elicitable, …
Proposes a method to select fair performance metrics through metric elicitation.
We discuss equivalent axiomatic characterizations of distortion risk measures, and give a novel and concise proof of the characterization of elicitable distortion risk measures. Elicitability has recently been discussed as a desirable criterion for risk measures, motivated by statistical considerations of forecasting. …
Robustifies elicitable functionals to handle small distribution misspecifications.
Study generalizes property elicitation to imprecise probabilities.
A statistical functional, such as the mean or the median, is called elicitable if there is a scoring function or loss function such that the correct forecast of the functional is the unique minimizer of the expected score. Such scoring functions are called strictly consistent for the functional. The elicitability of a …
Study creates web interface to elicit user-preferred metrics.
It is important to collect credible training samples for building data-intensive learning systems (e.g., a deep learning system). Asking people to report complex distribution , though theoretically viable, is challenging in practice. This is primarily due to the cognitive loads required for human agents t…
Given a binary prediction problem, which performance metric should the classifier optimize? We address this question by formalizing the problem of Metric Elicitation. The goal of metric elicitation is to discover the performance metric of a practitioner, which reflects her innate rewards (costs) for correct (incorrect)…
The paper analyzes elicitability of return risk measures and their scoring functions.
This thesis formalizes metric selection for machine learning applications.
t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE) is one of the most widely used dimensionality reduction methods for data visualization, but it has a perplexity hyperparameter that requires manual selection. In practice, proper tuning of t-SNE perplexity requires users to understand the inner working of the method a…
The risk of a financial position is usually summarized by a risk measure. As this risk measure has to be estimated from historical data, it is important to be able to verify and compare competing estimation procedures. In statistical decision theory, risk measures for which such verification and comparison is possible,…
Method combines deep learning and elicitability for solving complex stochastic equations.
Paper establishes identifiability and elicitability of tail risk measures.
In this note, we comment on the relevance of elicitability for backtesting risk measure estimates. In particular, we propose the use of Diebold-Mariano tests, and show how they can be implemented for Expected Shortfall (ES), based on the recent result of Fissler and Ziegel (2015) that ES is jointly elicitable with Valu…
Interactive learning with hindsight instruction feedback achieves better performance than traditional methods.
We consider settings in which the right notion of fairness is not captured by simple mathematical definitions (such as equality of error rates across groups), but might be more complex and nuanced and thus require elicitation from individual or collective stakeholders. We introduce a framework in which pairs of individ…
New algorithm achieves faster multicalibration in online settings.
In this paper, the development of a probabilistic network for the diagnosis of acute cardiopulmonary diseases is presented. This paper is a draft version of the article published after peer review in 2018 (https://doi.org/10.1002/bimj.201600206). A panel of expert physicians collaborated to specify the qualitative part…
Framework uses IRL and RL to elicit and optimize risk preferences robustly to noise.
New method allows backtesting of systemic risk forecasts.
We propose a cost-effective framework for preference elicitation and aggregation under the Plackett-Luce model with features. Given a budget, our framework iteratively computes the most cost-effective elicitation questions in order to help the agents make a better group decision. We illustrate the viability of the fram…
Formulates a Dueling Bandits problem for eliciting Kemeny rankings.
Robo-advisors estimate clients' risk aversion using interactive questionnaires.
Paper proposes incentives for federated learning to ensure truthful contributions.
A framework for eliciting utility functions from investor preferences.
There is tremendous interest in precision medicine as a means to improve patient outcomes by tailoring treatment to individual characteristics. An individualized treatment rule formalizes precision medicine as a map from patient information to a recommended treatment. A treatment rule is defined to be optimal if it max…
New design detects confounders from treatment intent in ICU data.
Requirements elicitation can be very challenging in projects that require deep domain knowledge about the system at hand. As analysts have the full control over the elicitation process, their lack of knowledge about the system under study inhibits them from asking related questions and reduces the accuracy of requireme…
Study uses property elicitation to understand how fairness regularizers affect optimal decisions.
PPT optimizes transformer behavior by steering its latent posterior using prior samples.