Societies often rely on human experts to take a wide variety of decisions affecting their members, from jail-or-release decisions taken by judges and stop-and-frisk decisions taken by police officers to accept-or-reject decisions taken by academics. In this context, each decision is taken by an expert who is typically …
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arXiv research
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48 results for “expert decision-making”
The paper proposes a method to explain expert decisions by modeling preferences with 'what if' outcomes.
problem Interpreting and auditing decision-making policies in institutions.
method Integrating counterfactual reasoning into batch inverse reinforcement learning.
result The method effectively recovers accurate and interpretable descriptions of expert behavior.
FinHEAR: Human Expertise and Adaptive Risk-Aware Temporal Reasoning for Financial Decision-Makingcs.LG
FinHEAR combines LLMs with human expertise for better financial decision-making.
problem Challenges in financial decision-making for language models.
method Multi-agent framework with specialized LLMs for historical analysis, event interpretation, and expert retrieval.
result FinHEAR outperforms baselines in financial tasks with higher accuracy and risk-adjusted returns.
A simple algorithm improves model generalization in expert advice settings.
problem Improving model generalization in expert advice settings.
method A naive aggregation algorithm for point estimations of high-dimensional nonlinear functions.
result Conditions for optimal parameter estimates through sequential mixing distribution strategies.
Specialized hierarchies improve decision-making by partitioning tasks.
problem Division of labor and specialization in hierarchical systems.
method Information-theoretic on-line learning rule for partitioning tasks.
result Enforces specialization and optimal combination of experts.
Bayesian method estimates dynamics from near-optimal trajectories.
problem Estimating dynamics from near-optimal expert trajectories in reinforcement learning.
method Constraint-based Bayesian approach integrating expert near-optimality.
result Significant improvements in decision-making and transfer success.
MM-DREX adapts LLM experts for financial trading via dynamic routing.
problem Challenges of non-stationary financial markets and static expert designs.
method MM-DREX uses a VLM-powered dynamic router to allocate expert weights and designs heterogeneous trading experts.
result Significantly outperforms 15 baselines across key metrics.
The paper shows optimal robustness against adversarial corruption in sequential decision-making problems.
problem Optimal robustness to adversarial corruption in online decision-making problems.
method Investigates prediction with expert advice and multi-armed bandit problems, focusing on algorithms with decreasing learning rates and second-order regret bounds.
result Optimal robustness can be expressed by a square-root dependency on the amount of corruption, achieving -regret.
Framework uses human judgment to distinguish algorithmically indistinguishable cases.
problem Clarifying human-AI collaboration in prediction and decision tasks.
method Integrates human judgment to distinguish algorithmically indistinguishable cases.
result Improves performance of any feasible algorithmic predictor.
Paper proposes consistent estimators for learning to defer decisions to experts.
problem Learning algorithms often ignore expert decision-making in practical scenarios.
method Reduction to cost sensitive learning, novel surrogate loss for consistent estimation.
result Effective approach demonstrated on various tasks, showing consistency.
Boosting improves online decision-making for large expert sets.
problem Online convex optimization with many experts is infeasible.
method Generalizes online boosting to online convex optimization and bandit linear optimization settings.
result Near-optimal regret guarantees for various feedback models.
New findings explain why online methods outperform offline methods in noisy expert feedback settings.
problem The challenge of learning from imperfect expert feedback in sequential decision-making systems.
method Introduced a noisy expert model and a novel variant of on-policy distillation (OPD) to address the gap between offline and online imitation learning.
result Online interaction with a noisy expert via OPD enables polynomial dependence on the horizon, unlike offline methods which require exponential growth in sample complexity.
The paper integrates AI and expert knowledge to optimize radiotherapy decisions.
problem Optimizing radiation dose planning considering patient-specific information.
method Integrating Gaussian process models with deep neural networks to quantify uncertainty.
result Improves AI model performance and guides clinical decision making.
Framework for deferring decisions to experts in sequential medical settings.
problem Myopic and non-adaptive decision-making by ML models in sequential medical contexts.
method Sequential Learning-to-Defer (SLTD) framework using model-based reinforcement learning.
result Adaptive deferral policy improves trade-off between long-term outcomes and deferral frequency.
Pairwise ranking aligns subjective clinical evaluations with objective indicators.
problem Aligning subjective clinical evaluations with objective indicators for improved diagnosis.
method Pairwise ranking methods to align subjective evaluations with objective indicators.
result The resulting score improves classification accuracy and provides a nuanced severity assessment.
Study proposes explainable analytics for manufacturing process planning.
problem Improving data-driven decision-making in manufacturing.
method Combines process mining, machine learning, and XAI. Uses deep learning for prediction and Shapley values/ICE plots for explanations.
result Enhanced decision-making capabilities through local post-hoc explanations.
We explore the problem of learning under selective labels in the context of algorithm-assisted decision making. Selective labels is a pervasive selection bias problem that arises when historical decision making blinds us to the true outcome for certain instances. Examples of this are common in many applications, rangin…
System uses conformal prediction to help experts make accurate decisions without understanding when to trust it.
problem Helping experts make accurate decisions in multiclass classification tasks.
method Develops an automated decision support system using conformal prediction to provide precise prediction sets and an efficient search method.
result System improves expert predictions by providing precise prediction sets and forcing experts to predict from these sets.
A new framework AlphaMix combines multiple trading experts to improve stock investment decisions.
problem Inconsistent financial predictions and lack of model uncertainty in investment decisions.
method Reformulate quantitative investment as a multi-task learning problem, and propose AlphaMix framework.
result AlphaMix significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in financial criteria.
Novel algorithms for online learning with uncertain feedback graphs reduce regret.
problem Uncertainty in feedback graphs hinders traditional online learning approaches.
method Developed novel online learning algorithms to handle uncertain feedback graphs.
result Proved sublinear regret under mild conditions for the proposed algorithms.
We study how to effectively leverage expert feedback to learn sequential decision-making policies. We focus on problems with sparse rewards and long time horizons, which typically pose significant challenges in reinforcement learning. We propose an algorithmic framework, called hierarchical guidance, that leverages the…
ContextWIN: Whittle Index Based Mixture-of-Experts Neural Model For Restless Bandits Via Deep RLcs.LG
ContextWIN uses neural networks and reinforcement learning to optimize decisions in dynamic environments.
problem Optimizing decisions in dynamic, context-aware environments like recommendation systems.
method Integrates a mixture of experts within a reinforcement learning framework to compute context-specific weights for decision-making.
result Enhanced efficiency and accuracy in Whittle index computation for each arm in RMABs.
Although deep reinforcement learning agents have produced impressive results in many domains, their decision making is difficult to explain to humans. To address this problem, past work has mainly focused on explaining why an action was chosen in a given state. A different type of explanation that is useful is a counte…
A human-in-the-loop ML framework for precision dosing reduces expert workload and removes bias.
problem High cost of data annotation and lack of appropriate data for ML models.
method Incorporates human experts into the model learning loop to improve interpretability and reduce bias.
result The approach learns interpretable rules from data and potentially lowers expert workload.
In many real life situations, including job and loan applications, gatekeepers must make justified and fair real-time decisions about a person's fitness for a particular opportunity. In this paper, we aim to accomplish approximate group fairness in an online stochastic decision-making process, where the fairness metric…
Proposes method for eliciting non-parametric joint priors using normalizing flows.
problem Learning complex non-parametric joint priors for model parameters.
method Expert elicitation combined with normalizing flows for generative modeling.
result Framework supports elicitation of both parametric and non-parametric priors.
Learning predictive models from small high-dimensional data sets is a key problem in high-dimensional statistics. Expert knowledge elicitation can help, and a strong line of work focuses on directly eliciting informative prior distributions for parameters. This either requires considerable statistical expertise or is l…
Unified approach to aggregating models and preferences.
problem Consistent aggregation of models and preferences.
method Formal definition and weighted averaging of models and preferences.
result All rational aggregation rules are weighted averages of highest-ranked models/experts.
Paper explores limits of imitation learning in MDPs, setting new suboptimality bounds.
problem Understanding the statistical limits of imitation learning in MDPs.
method Analyzes minimax statistical limits in two settings: pre-interaction and interaction.
result Establishes suboptimality bounds for imitation learning in MDPs, showing improvements with knowledge of transition.
Reinforcement learning improves online matching by combining expert policies.
problem Efficient decision-making in complex systems like cloud services and marketplaces.
method Combines reinforcement learning with expert policies, using advantage-based weight updates.
result The orchestrated policy converges faster and yields higher efficiency than individual experts and conventional RL.
Study how communication and feedback graphs affect learning outcomes.
problem Understanding the impact of feedback graphs on cooperative online learning.
method Analyzed network regret in terms of the independence number of the strong product of communication and feedback graphs.
result Proved bounds for network regret and demonstrated the non-improvable nature of positive results in pathological cases.
Online prediction improves with abstention, reducing regret to a fixed bound.
problem Sequential prediction with expert advice.
method Introducing abstention with a cost smaller than 0.5, achieving independent regret bounds.
result Achieves expected regret bounds independent of time horizon, with bounds of order log(N)/(1-2c).
Recursive experts improve dynamic sequential learning systems.
problem Adapt to changing environments in sequential learning.
method Design hyper-experts that recursively merge to achieve optimal performance.
result Achieve minimax optimal regret bounds up to constant factors.
Online Decision Mediationstat.ML
An assistant learns to mediate decisions between humans and experts, balancing risk and learning.
problem Learning to mediate decisions between imperfect humans and expert knowledge.
method Formalizes online decision mediation, proposes a policy to balance immediate loss and future generalization.
result Consistent gains over benchmarks in decision-making performance.
AI system narrows human decision options for better outcomes.
problem Improving human decision-making in sequential tasks.
method Developed a decision support system using a pre-trained AI agent to limit human action choices.
result Participants outperformed AI and solo play in a wildfire mitigation game.
Bayesian principles improve agentic AI decision-making.
problem Decision-making under uncertainty in agentic AI systems.
method Bayesian decision theory applied to the orchestration layer of agentic AI.
result Bayesian principles enhance agentic AI's ability to make decisions under uncertainty.
Resource scheduling and coordination is an NP-hard optimization requiring an efficient allocation of agents to a set of tasks with upper- and lower bound temporal and resource constraints. Due to the large-scale and dynamic nature of resource coordination in hospitals and factories, human domain experts manually plan a…
Method predicts NBA players' multi-modal movement trajectories.
problem Understanding NBA players' decision-making during games.
method LSTM-based architecture with multi-modal loss function.
result Method outperforms state-of-the-art in predicting realistic trajectories.
This work advances collaborative decision making by combining human and AI strengths in uncertainty quantification.
problem Current AI lacks robust decision-making capabilities under uncertainty, especially in high-stakes contexts.
method Introduces Human AI Collaborative Uncertainty Quantification (HACUQ) framework, formalizing AI-human collaboration and developing calibration algorithms.
result Optimal collaborative prediction sets follow a two-threshold structure, and online adaptation algorithms can adapt to evolving human behavior.
Adaptive Conformal Inference improves time series forecasting uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty quantification in time series models with dependency.
method AgACI, an adaptive method based on online expert aggregation.
result AgACI provides efficient prediction intervals for day-ahead electricity price forecasting.
Unified strategy for efficient data compression and model estimation.
problem Limited interactive exploration and data interaction in linear model development and deployment.
method Conditionally sufficient statistics for optimal data compression and estimation of linear models.
result Linear models can be estimated from compressed data without loss of parameters or covariances.
Paper introduces a novel reward function for noisy financial markets using imitation learning.
problem Noisy reward function in financial markets hinders RL agent performance.
method Integrates imitation learning feedback with reinforcement learning to improve reward function design.
result Improves financial performance metrics compared to traditional benchmarks and RL agents.
Study optimal investment with herd behavior using rational decision decomposition.
problem Optimal investment problem considering herd behavior between two agents.
method Introduce average deviation term, use variational method, rational decision decomposition, investment opinion.
result Quantitative analysis of herd behavior impact on investment decisions.
Study tackles non-stationary bandit convex optimization with new algorithms.
problem Minimizing regret in non-stationary environments with various measures of non-stationarity.
method Proposed Tilted Exponentially Weighted Average with Sleeping Experts (TEWA-SE) for strongly convex losses and clipped Exploration by Optimization (cExO) for general convex losses.
result Proved minimax-optimality of TEWA-SE for strongly convex losses and introduced cExO for general convex losses.
Crowdsourced wisdom improves causal learning.
problem Improving causal learning through collective intelligence.
method Crowdsourcing, expert knowledge elicitation, aggregation techniques, and LLMs.
result Collective contributions enhance global causal structure.
We aim to design strategies for sequential decision making that adjust to the difficulty of the learning problem. We study this question both in the setting of prediction with expert advice, and for more general combinatorial decision tasks. We are not satisfied with just guaranteeing minimax regret rates, but we want …
Causal inference from observational data is the goal of many data analyses in the health and social sciences. However, academic statistics has often frowned upon data analyses with a causal objective. The introduction of the term "data science" provides a historic opportunity to redefine data analysis in such a way tha…
SARD improves adversarial robustness in two-stage L2D systems.
problem Adversarial attacks can manipulate query allocation in two-stage L2D systems.
method Introduces SARD, a convex learning algorithm with provable guarantees.
result SARD significantly improves robustness under adversarial attacks while maintaining strong clean performance.