New method uses low-fidelity simulations to efficiently infer parameters of high-fidelity models.
problem Challenges in inferring parameters of computationally expensive high-fidelity models.
method Multifidelity simulation-based inference using transfer learning and adaptive selection of high-fidelity parameters.
result Significant reduction in the number of high-fidelity simulations required for inference.
Bayesian neural networks improve simulation-based inference with limited data.
problem Inaccurate inference in data-poor regimes with limited or expensive simulations.
method Bayesian neural networks for posterior approximation, accounting for computational uncertainty.
result Bayesian neural networks produce well-calibrated posteriors with few simulations.
Gemini uses inexpensive measurements to correct biases in expensive property evaluations.
problem Accurate estimation of materials properties using expensive measurements is hindered in scientific discovery campaigns.
method Gemini is a data-driven model that corrects systematic biases between property evaluation methods using inexpensive measurements.
result Gemini reduces the number of expensive evaluations needed for Bayesian optimization in materials discovery.
Enhances SBI accuracy with multilevel Monte Carlo for expensive simulators.
problem Limited accuracy in SBI due to expensive simulators.
method Multilevel Monte Carlo techniques for cost-effective SBI.
result Significant enhancement in SBI accuracy with fixed computational budget.
Bayesian search optimizes exploration of feasible solutions under expensive constraints.
problem Identifying feasible solutions in computationally expensive constraint spaces.
method Bayesian models with an acquisition function for efficient exploration and exploitation.
result The proposed acquisition function improves the prediction of feasibility.
EDU method finds diverse optimal solutions for expensive simulators.
problem Optimizing expensive black-box simulators for diverse solutions.
method EDU method searches for diverse locally-optimal solutions within a tolerance level.
result EDU yields a closed-form acquisition function facilitating efficient sequential queries.
Cost-aware SBI reduces expensive simulations in complex models.
problem High computational cost in simulating complex models.
method Combination of rejection and self-normalised importance sampling.
result Significant reduction in overall cost of inference.
Computer simulations are invaluable tools for scientific discovery. However, accurate simulations are often slow to execute, which limits their applicability to extensive parameter exploration, large-scale data analysis, and uncertainty quantification. A promising route to accelerate simulations by building fast emulat…
Enhances PCE surrogates using transfer learning for expensive simulations.
problem Over-sampling in PCE for expensive forward models.
method Transfer learning from similar tasks to a new task with limited training data.
result Improves scalability and accuracy of PCE surrogates.
LOL-GP model improves surrogate modeling of expensive simulators.
problem Costly computer simulations for complex systems.
method Local transfer learning Gaussian process.
result Improved surrogate performance over existing methods.
Data-efficient PDE operator learning without expensive simulations.
problem Expensive numerical PDE solutions limit data efficiency in machine learning.
method Unsupervised pretraining and in-context learning.
result Highly data-efficient and more generalizable than conventional models.
UA-SABI uses surrogates to speed up Bayesian inference for expensive models.
problem Inference for computationally expensive models is slow and uncertain.
method Combines surrogate modeling with Amortized Bayesian Inference (ABI) to propagate uncertainties.
result Reliable, fast, and repeated Bayesian inference for expensive models is achieved.
The paper proposes a scalable framework for uncertainty quantification and propagation in surrogate-based Bayesian inference.
problem Uncertainty in surrogate models and its impact on inference and decision-making.
method Bayesian inference methods for surrogate models with measurement data.
result Scalable framework for uncertainty quantification and propagation in surrogate models.
USeMOC framework reduces expensive simulations for MO optimization with constraints.
problem Efficiently optimizing multi-objective problems with constraints using expensive function evaluations.
method USeMOC framework uses surrogate models to identify promising candidates and selects the best based on uncertainty.
result USeMOC achieves more than 90% reduction in function evaluations for circuit optimization.
A new method for efficient optimization of expensive simulations on HPC.
problem Efficiently solving computationally expensive simulation-based optimization problems.
method Asynchronous parallel Bayesian optimization with budgeted computational resource.
result Improved efficiency and handling of constraints in optimization.
Bayesian optimization (BO) and its batch extensions are successful for optimizing expensive black-box functions. However, these traditional BO approaches are not yet ideal for optimizing less expensive functions when the computational cost of BO can dominate the cost of evaluating the blackbox function. Examples of the…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is now an established technique for statistical inference used in cases where the likelihood function is computationally expensive or not available. It relies on the use of a~model that is specified in the form of a~simulator, and approximates the likelihood at a~parameter value $…
DVAEs speed up calorimeter simulation for LHC data.
problem Slow calorimeter simulation in LHC experiments.
method Discrete Variational Autoencoders (DVAEs).
result Significantly faster calorimeter shower simulation.
Improved statistical inference for expensive data using machine learning predictions.
problem Statistical inference under adaptive two-phase multiwave sampling with expensive measurements.
method Multiwave Predict-Then-Debias estimator combining proxy information and expensive measurements.
result Valid estimators and confidence intervals for M-estimation under adaptive sampling.
New algorithm efficiently trains machine learning models to atomic forces data.
problem Efficiently training machine learning models to large amounts of force data.
method Developed an efficient algorithm for training machine learning models to all available force data.
result Training to all available force data is only a few times more expensive than training to energies alone.
In this work, we provide an efficient and realistic data-driven approach to simulate astronomical images using deep generative models from machine learning. Our solution is based on a variant of the generative adversarial network (GAN) with progressive training methodology and Wasserstein cost function. The proposed so…
Paper reduces expensive financial risk simulations through efficient MOR.
problem Expensive simulations of financial risk models.
method Model order reduction (MOR) using proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) with adaptive greedy sampling.
result MOR approach reduces computational cost for financial risk analysis.
Bayesian optimisation tackles expensive black-box functions with constraints.
problem Optimizing constrained black-box functions in machine learning and simulation.
method Proposes a new Knowledge Gradient acquisition function for constrained Bayesian optimisation.
result Demonstrates superior performance over four state-of-the-art constrained Bayesian optimisation algorithms.
Bayesian optimization tackles expensive cascade processes.
problem Optimizing multistage decision-making processes with expensive costs.
method Formulated as Bayesian optimization framework with two types of acquisition functions.
result Demonstrated effectiveness through numerical experiments and a solar cell simulator application.
New method improves sample-efficiency in neural posterior estimation using simulator gradients.
problem High-fidelity posterior estimation with complex physical simulations is time-consuming.
method Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) with differentiable simulators and gradient information.
result Improves sample-efficiency in posterior density estimation.
In this work, sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) models, originally developed for language translation, are used to predict the temporal evolution of complex, multi-physics computer simulations. The predictive performance of seq2seq models is compared to state transition models for datasets generated with multi-physics cod…
New simulation method simplifies Heston model with Poisson conditioning for better accuracy and efficiency.
problem Computational expense in exact simulation schemes for Heston model.
method Proposes a new exact simulation scheme without modified Bessel function evaluations, leveraging conditional integrated variance simplification.
result Good performance in terms of accuracy, efficiency, and reliability compared to existing methods.
A new method reduces bootstrap simulation cost and improves accuracy.
problem Efficiently simulating input uncertainty with large sample sizes.
method Orthogonal Bootstrap: Decomposes into Infinitesimal Jackknife and orthogonal parts.
result Significantly reduces computational cost and maintains accuracy.
Estimates reliability of nuclear fuel using advanced modeling techniques.
problem Determining the reliability of TRISO-coated particle fuel, which has small failure probabilities and expensive computational models.
method Coupled active learning, multifidelity modeling, and subset simulation.
result Multifidelity modeling strategies consistently reduce the number of high-fidelity model calls.
The interpretability of machine learning, particularly for deep neural networks, is crucial for decision making in real-world applications. One approach is replacing the un-interpretable machine learning model with a surrogate model, which has a simple structure for interpretation. Another approach is understanding the…
AL-SPCE improves reliability analysis for complex systems with active learning and SPCE.
problem Efficiently analyzing reliability of complex, computationally expensive models with intrinsic randomness.
method Active learning framework using stochastic polynomial chaos expansions (SPCE) to reduce computational burden.
result AL-SPCE maintains high accuracy in reliability estimates while significantly improving efficiency.
Efficient Bayesian decision-making with intractable likelihoods.
problem Bayesian decision-making under intractable likelihoods.
method Learning surrogate models and using simulation-based inference and Bayesian optimization.
result Optimal actions can be learned with fewer simulations than posterior inference.
Adaptive BO improves solder joint reliability by 3% with half the computational cost.
problem Improving solder joint reliability under thermomechanical loading.
method Adaptive Bayesian optimization with Gaussian process regression.
result Adaptive BO outperforms regular BO by 3% on average at any given computational budget.
This paper introduces NPR, a technique to improve Bayesian inference for multi-modal, high-dimensional simulations.
problem Challenges in Bayesian inference for multi-modal, high-dimensional simulations.
method Introduces Neural Posterior Regularization (NPR) to enforce exploration of input parameter space.
result Empirically validated that NPR significantly improves performance on various simulation tasks.
Scout-Nd optimizes parameters of stochastic simulators efficiently.
problem Optimizing parameters of stochastic, computationally expensive simulators.
method Scout-Nd algorithm, reducing gradient noise, multi-fidelity schemes.
result Demonstrates better performance compared to existing methods.
Managers of US National Forests must decide what policy to apply for dealing with lightning-caused wildfires. Conflicts among stakeholders (e.g., timber companies, home owners, and wildlife biologists) have often led to spirited political debates and even violent eco-terrorism. One way to transform these conflicts into…
New approach uses low-fidelity data to train ML models efficiently.
problem Training ML models with scarce high-fidelity data leads to high variance and poor generalization.
method Multifidelity linear regression using approximate control variates.
result Multifidelity training achieves similar accuracy with reduced high-fidelity data.
New method reduces uncertainty in AI-driven Monte Carlo simulations.
problem Epistemic uncertainty in AI surrogate models affects Monte Carlo sampling outcomes.
method Penalty Ensemble Method (PEM) modifies Metropolis acceptance rule to increase rejection probability in uncertain regions.
result PEM enhances reliability of Monte Carlo simulations by reducing uncertainty propagation.
New method uses neural networks to estimate parameters without needing detector simulations.
problem Estimating parameters in high-energy physics with detector effects.
method Two-level fitting approach: SRGN (Simulation-level fit based on Reweighting Generator-level events with Neural networks).
result Demonstrated using simulated datasets, SRGN can estimate parameters without detector effects.
PALS extends PAL for optimizing stochastic simulators efficiently.
problem Optimizing stochastic simulators with high output variance and expensive evaluations.
method Bayesian optimization with probabilistic models, extending PAL for stochastic settings.
result PALS outperforms other methods in optimizing stochastic simulators.
Policy analysts wish to visualize a range of policies for large simulator-defined Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). One visualization approach is to invoke the simulator to generate on-policy trajectories and then visualize those trajectories. When the simulator is expensive, this is not practical, and some method is r…
In many scientific and engineering applications, we are tasked with the maximisation of an expensive to evaluate black box function f. Traditional settings for this problem assume just the availability of this single function. However, in many cases, cheap approximations to f may be obtainable. For example, the exp…
A new method uses physics-informed neural networks to solve reliability analysis problems without simulations.
problem Solving reliability analysis problems without the need for expensive simulations.
method Physics-informed neural networks to learn directly from problem physics.
result Eliminates the need for expensive simulations and achieves highly accurate results.
The estimation of unknown values of parameters (or hidden variables, control variables) that characterise a physical system often relies on the comparison of measured data with synthetic data produced by some numerical simulator of the system as the parameter values are varied. This process often encounters two major d…
Hybrid model combines neural networks and fluid dynamics for efficient, generalized simulations.
problem Inefficient and poor generalization of deep learning approximations of fluid dynamics.
method Combines graph neural networks with a differentiable PDE solver inside a neural network.
result Hybrid model generalizes well to new scenarios and outperforms both neural network and traditional methods.
Computer simulators are nowadays widely used to understand complex physical systems in many areas such as aerospace, renewable energy, climate modeling, and manufacturing. One fundamental issue in the study of computer simulators is known as experimental design, that is, how to select the input settings where the compu…
In computer experiments, a mathematical model implemented on a computer is used to represent complex physical phenomena. These models, known as computer simulators, enable experimental study of a virtual representation of the complex phenomena. Simulators can be thought of as complex functions that take many inputs and…
We constructed an analog electrical circuit which generates fluctuations in which probability density function has power law tails. In the circuit fluctuations with an arbitrary exponent of the power law can be obtained by adjusting the resistance. With this low cost circuit the random fluctuations which have the simil…